Manuel Baez

C DSL Mariners

Age 22 R/R 5'9" / 192 lbs ROK K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	ROKSEA	42	.161/.381/.226	0	0	26	—	.091/.286/.121
2026	21	ROKSEA	57	.239/.386/.283	0	0	28	—	.143/.263/.163
2027PROJ0% MLB	22	MLBSEA	167	.188/.269/.252	1	1	51	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBSEA	46	.191/.272/.262	0	0	56	-0.1
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBSEA	119	.195/.276/.274	1	1	60	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%68

BB%53

wOBA40

wRC+38

K%29

Whiff%29

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsDaurys Mercedes (age 22) · David Masters (age 22) · Grayson Greiner (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj PA

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .267 / .250

PA59

HR0

K%34

BB%8

ISO64

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	19	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	28	24	2	0	0	0	2	13	2	0	0	83	214	83	298		182	46	7	167	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	42	31	5	2	0	0	8	13	3	0	0	161	381	226	607	65	278	31	19	311	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	57	46	11	2	0	0	9	15	2	0	0	239	386	283	669	43	355	26	16	324	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	28	25	1	0	0	0	1	16	2	0	0	40	143	40	183		126	57	4	109	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	42	33	3	1	0	0	6	16	3	0	0	91	286	121	407	30	180	38	14	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	57	49	7	1	0	0	6	18	2	0	0	143	263	163	426	20	230	32	11	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	28	25	1	0	0	0	1	16	2	0	0	40	143	40	183		111	57	4	109	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	28	24	2	0	0	0	2	13	2	0	0	83	214	83	298		182	46	7	167	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	42	33	3	1	0	0	6	16	3	0	0	91	286	121	407	30	176	38	14	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	42	31	5	2	0	0	8	13	3	0	0	161	381	226	607	65	278	31	19	311	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	57	49	7	1	0	0	6	18	2	0	0	143	263	163	426	20	226	32	11	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	57	46	11	2	0	0	9	15	2	0	0	239	386	283	669	43	355	26	16	324	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	28	25	1	0	0	0	1	16	2	0	0	40	143	40	183		126	57	4	109	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	42	33	3	1	0	0	6	16	3	0	0	91	286	121	407	30	180	38	14	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	57	49	7	1	0	0	6	18	2	0	0	143	263	163	426	20	230	32	11	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	28	25	1	0	0	0	1	16	2	0	0	40	143	40	183		126	57	4	109	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	42	33	3	1	0	0	6	16	3	0	0	91	286	121	407	30	180	38	14	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	57	49	7	1	0	0	6	18	2	0	0	143	263	163	426	20	230	32	11	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SEA	0%	167	149	28	5	1	1	13	56	3	1	1	188	269	252	521	64	289	34	8	244	51	-10	-0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SEA	34%	135	120	23	4	1	1	11	44	3	1	0	192	274	265	539	73	290	33	8	250	56	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	SEA	46%	258	230	45	8	1	3	21	83	5	2	1	196	277	277	554	81	291	32	8	256	60	-12	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	SEA	52%	337	301	61	11	2	4	27	107	6	3	1	200	280	287	567	87	291	32	8	261	63	-15	+0	+0	+6	+7	-0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	SEA	54%	389	347	70	12	2	5	32	122	7	3	1	202	282	295	578	93	291	31	8	265	66	-16	+0	+0	+7	+8	-0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	SEA	54%	416	372	75	13	2	6	34	129	7	3	1	203	283	298	582	95	291	31	8	267	67	-16	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	SEA	54%	429	384	78	14	2	6	35	134	7	2	1	202	281	294	575	92	289	31	8	264	65	-18	+0	-1	+8	+9	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	SEA	34%	46	41	7	1	0	0	4	15	1	0	0	191	272	262	534	71	288	33	9	248	56	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	SEA	46%	119	106	21	4	1	1	10	38	2	1	0	195	276	274	549	79	289	32	8	254	60	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	SEA	52%	174	155	30	5	1	2	14	55	3	1	1	198	279	283	562	85	289	32	8	259	63	-8	-0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	SEA	54%	211	188	38	7	1	3	17	66	4	2	1	201	281	292	572	91	289	31	8	263	66	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	SEA	54%	226	201	40	7	1	3	19	70	4	1	1	202	282	294	576	93	288	31	8	265	67	-9	-0	+0	+4	+5	-0.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	SEA	54%	233	208	41	7	1	3	19	73	4	1	1	200	280	290	569	90	287	31	8	262	65	-10	-0	-0	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1009	899	177	31	5	12	83	317	18	6	4	197	278	283	561	86	287	31	8	261	60	-43	-0	-0	+18	+22	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	114	20	3	8	53	204	12	4	3	197	278	283	561	86	286	31	8	261	60	-28	-0	-0	+12	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2150	1914	372	66	10	25	178	689	43	14	5	194	278	278	556	84	287	32	8	257	60	-88	+1	-1	+36	+44	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	113	20	3	8	54	208	13	4	2	195	279	282	561	86	287	32	8	257	60	-28	+0	-0	+12	+14	-0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Gabby Street'04-'31 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,677 PA	2.5	1,677	2	17	210*	281*	325*	+30	+0	3.1	3.3
/162	664	1	7	+11.8	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 3
#4Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#5Sam Agnew'13-'19 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,711 PA	2.6	1,711	2	29	204*	262*	314*	+31	+0	0.5	0.5
/162	664	1	11	+11.9	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Mickey O'Neil'19-'27 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,201 PA	3.3	2,201	4	18	212*	275*	299*	+39	-1	-0.5	0.4
/162	664	1	5	+11.9	-0.3	-0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.6	1,068	13	7	201	278	290	+19	+16	0.2	0.3
/162	664	8	4	+11.9	+9.9	0.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Baez (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	186/267/250	64	289	0	0	34%	8%	51	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Daurys Mercedes 2012 · A	22	38	35→40	46→45	42	179/250/239	60	285	2	7	36%	8%	40	-3.0	178/242/245	67	330	3	6	43%	7%	39	-3.1	127/201/181	54	254	2	4	47%	7%	7	-1.7
✕David Masters 2015 · A	22	39→37	36→45	47→40	40	185/251/253	68	279	3	8	33%	7%	45	-2.7	179/238/249	70	242	6	4	27%	6%	38	-3.2	187/256/313	125	256	16	1	32%	7%	58	-0.7
✕Grayson Greiner 2016 · A	23	37	38→45	46→30	37	180/234/253	73	279	6	3	36%	6%	38	-3.2	214/267/316	102	297	9	3	29%	6%	65	-1.2	220/280/330	110	294	10	0	27%	7%	71	-0.5
✕J.C. Millan 2018 · A	22	40	37→40	45→30	36	195/236/271	76	279	4	8	31%	4%	42	-2.9	220/267/316	96	272	9	6	22%	6%	64	-1.3	226/273/320	94	265	9	4	18%	6%	64	-0.5
✕Juan Zabala 2021 · A	22	40	39→40	48→50	37	189/252/274	85	299	6	6	37%	6%	50	-2.3	213/274/306	93	302	8	13	30%	7%	65	-1.2	205/266/287	81	283	8	16	29%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→40	45→40	34	175/221/253	78	272	7	4	37%	5%	32	-3.6	185/240/265	80	303	8	5	39%	6%	43	-2.8	138/183/216	78	244	10	0	46%	5%	8	-1.0
✕Freuddy Batista 2021 · A	21	38	39→50	48→40	36	186/240/272	87	288	7	5	36%	6%	45	-2.7	203/268/343	140	296	15	6	35%	6%	72	-0.7	195/262/337	142	285	14	5	35%	6%	66	-0.5
✕Justin Twine 2018 · A	22	37→33	37→40	47→50	31	179/219/250	71	280	4	7	37%	3%	31	-3.7	213/252/298	85	304	6	10	30%	4%	54	-2.0	216/252/305	89	320	6	14	33%	3%	54	-1.1
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/293/300	81	280	8	4	23%	7%	72	-0.7	211/298/265	54	265	5	1	21%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Alexis Wilson 2019 · A	22	40	38→40	48→30	45	194/260/273	78	263	5	4	27%	8%	53	-2.1	219/269/310	91	281	9	5	24%	6%	63	-1.3	222/267/302	80	270	10	1	21%	5%	58	-0.6
✕Ben Gobbel 2023 · A	23	41	36→45	47→50	40	196/255/263	68	278	4	7	30%	6%	48	-2.5	210/268/321	111	288	11	13	30%	6%	66	-1.1	216/266/339	123	276	15	11	27%	5%	67	-0.8
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	34	39→45	45→50	36	174/218/258	84	255	7	7	34%	5%	32	-3.6	190/226/284	94	268	6	9	30%	4%	41	-3.0	236/292/311	74	314	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Caleb Hamilton 2017 · A	22	39	38→45	48→45	44	183/266/267	84	289	5	5	36%	9%	54	-2.0	177/255/278	101	266	8	5	34%	9%	52	-2.2	140/232/254	115	204	16	3	39%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Geovanny Planchart 2024 · A	22	41	37→40	49→40	48	192/274/268	75	279	4	5	30%	10%	57	-1.8	193/270/277	84	273	7	4	29%	9%	57	-1.8	164/246/241	76	224	8	0	29%	9%	39	-1.0
✕Brandon Lewis 2021 · A	22	42→34	39→50	49→30	40	203/264/289	86	290	7	6	31%	6%	57	-1.8	196/250/365	169	289	23	3	39%	6%	71	-0.8	176/230/331	155	250	22	1	39%	5%	53	-1.4
✕Frank Rodriguez 2023 · A	21	40	39→45	48→30	38	194/254/281	87	293	7	4	35%	6%	52	-2.2	180/236/264	84	253	7	3	31%	6%	41	-3.0	183/244/267	84	241	9	1	27%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Narbe Cruz 2023 · A	22	40	38→45	44→45	40	194/247/270	77	262	5	7	27%	5%	47	-2.6	210/262/301	91	296	8	6	30%	5%	59	-1.6	208/262/300	93	295	9	6	31%	5%	55	-1.0
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2008 · A	22	38	39→40	42→50	40	189/236/271	83	258	7	4	30%	6%	42	-2.9	198/259/276	78	270	5	5	27%	7%	53	-2.1	219/256/297	79	272	10	12	23%	4%	52	-0.7
✕Joseph Odom 2014 · A	22	42	36→45	49→30	40	195/257/259	64	311	3	6	36%	7%	48	-2.5	198/254/303	105	276	10	3	30%	7%	57	-1.8	200/249/312	112	263	12	0	28%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Misael Urbina 2024 · A	22	35→32	39→40	47→50	44	172/248/261	89	251	6	9	32%	8%	46	-2.6	189/269/280	91	269	6	9	29%	9%	58	-1.7	182/269/271	88	253	6	9	28%	10%	53	-1.1

Manuel Baez

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps