Christopher AlvaradoSS FCL Red Sox
Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 162 lbs ROK H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
2026 ROS PROJECTION137 act + 91 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†71
AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .307 / .311
PA91
HR1
SB6
K%25
BB%11
BABIP284
ISO100
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -8.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: +2.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+2RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.4 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +6.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+6REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
0.01.22.50.50.91.41.61.81.92.02.01.81.71.5+$117M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 36
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT49
scouting grade only
POWER36
scouting grade only
EYE65
scouting grade only
SPEED68
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.9$10M+$9M
2033Pre-Arb$1.0M+2.0$9M+$9M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+2.0$9M+$8M
2035Arb-1$4M+1.8$7M+$6M
2036Arb-2$6M+1.7$6M+$4M
2037Arb-3$7M+1.5$5M+$3M
Totals $20M $47M +$39M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202417 ROKDSL Red Sox Red — 176156 30300 14424 168 192276212487 19259 248 226 31 — — — — — —
202417 ROKDSL Red Sox Red — 176146 38500 24274 168 260379295674 34314 1514 318 102 — — — — — —
202518 ROKDSL Red Sox Blue — 149123 28711 18364 132 228345325670 98300 2412 300 88 — — — — — —
202518 ROKDSL Red Sox Blue — 149114 321021 27254 132 281434430864 149337 1718 383 152 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD19 ROKBOS — 137114 22221 19373 259 193324272595 79273 2714 269 64 -6 +1 +0 +1 +4 0.1
YTD19 ROKBOS — 137102 25321 31263 259 245434343777 98316 1923 366 139 +6 +1 +0 +1 +4 1.3
ROS19 ROKBOS 0% 9180 17311 10231 62 212307311618 100282 2511 278 71 -3 +0 +0 +1 +3 0.1
ROS19 MLBBOS 0% 01 0000 000 00 —— 288 —— 271 65 — — +0 +0 — —
FULL19 ROKBOS — 137115 22221 19373 259 191324270593 78269 2714 269 64 -6 +1 +0 +1 +4 0.1
TOT19 ROKBOS — 228194 39532 29604 3111 201317288605 87277 2613 273 67 -9 +2 +0 +2 +6 0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202720 MLBBOS 34% 257224 48823 27644 93 214310308618 94285 2511 288 79 -6 +1 +0 +3 +7 0.5
202821 MLBBOS 48% 377330 731236 39925 134 221313330643 109287 2410 296 85 -7 +1 +0 +4 +11 0.9
202922 MLBBOS 54% 460402 901538 481117 154 224317336653 112288 2410 301 88 -6 +1 +0 +5 +13 1.4
203023 MLBBOS 57% 515450 10317410 531237 165 229320351671 122289 2410 304 91 -5 +1 +0 +6 +15 1.6
203124 MLBBOS 57% 550480 11119411 571318 175 231323356679 125290 2410 306 92 -5 +1 +0 +6 +16 1.8
203225 MLBBOS 57% 570498 11319411 591368 175 227319347666 120290 2410 307 93 -5 +1 +0 +6 +16 1.9
203326 MLBBOS 56% 580505 11720412 611389 175 232325358684 127289 2411 307 93 -5 +1 +0 +6 +16 2.0
203427 MLBBOS 55% 582507 11720412 611399 175 231324357681 126289 2410 307 93 -5 +1 +0 +6 +16 2.0
203528 MLBBOS 55% 578503 11519412 621398 165 229323354677 125289 2411 306 92 -5 +1 -1 +6 +16 1.8
203629 MLBBOS 53% 569495 11219411 611388 165 226321347668 121288 2411 304 91 -6 +1 -1 +6 +16 1.7
203730 MLBBOS 53% 559486 11018411 601378 154 226321348669 121287 2511 302 89 -7 +1 -2 +6 +16 1.5
203831 MLBBOS 52% 545474 10518310 581358 144 222317335652 114285 2511 298 86 -9 +1 -3 +6 +15 1.1
203932 MLBBOS 56% 527459 991639 561337 134 216310322633 107282 2511 293 82 -11 +1 -4 +6 +15 0.8
202720 MLBBOS 34% 8878 17311 9221 31 218307321627 103291 2510 281 73 -3 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.1
202821 MLBBOS 48% 183159 36613 19453 62 226320333654 107292 2510 289 79 -4 +0 +0 +2 +5 0.3
202922 MLBBOS 54% 249217 51925 26604 82 235328364692 129294 2410 294 83 -5 +1 +0 +3 +7 0.6
203023 MLBBOS 57% 292256 591026 30704 93 230321355676 125295 2410 297 85 -5 +1 +0 +3 +8 0.7
203124 MLBBOS 57% 311271 631126 32745 93 232325354679 122295 2410 299 87 -5 +1 +0 +3 +9 0.8
203225 MLBBOS 57% 322280 671227 34775 103 239332371704 132295 2411 300 87 -5 +1 +0 +3 +9 0.9
203326 MLBBOS 56% 328286 671227 34785 103 234326364690 129295 2410 300 88 -5 +1 +0 +4 +9 0.9
203427 MLBBOS 55% 323281 671227 34775 103 238331370701 132295 2411 300 88 -4 +1 +0 +3 +9 0.9
203528 MLBBOS 55% 317275 641126 34765 93 233328353681 120295 2411 299 87 -5 +1 -0 +3 +9 0.8
203629 MLBBOS 53% 304264 621126 33744 82 235329360689 125294 2411 297 86 -5 +1 -1 +3 +9 0.7
203730 MLBBOS 53% 294257 591026 31724 82 230322354676 125293 2411 295 84 -5 +1 -1 +3 +8 0.6
203831 MLBBOS 52% 284248 561025 30704 72 226319343662 117291 2511 291 81 -6 +1 -1 +3 +8 0.4
203932 MLBBOS 56% 296258 581025 32744 72 225320337657 112288 2511 286 77 -8 +1 -2 +3 +8 0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 35913131 7261272470 37886953 10431 232325355680 123297 2411 296 84 -63 +8 -6 +38 +102 8.1
/ 162G— — 650567 13123413 6815710 196 231324354679 123295 2410 296 84 -11 +1 -1 +7 +18 1.5
Career— — 70856172 138823348128 7441717105 23070 225319340659 116288 2411 300 88 -98 +18 -10 +76 +201 19.0
/ 162G— — 650566 12721412 6815810 216 224318339658 115287 2410 300 88 -9 +2 -1 +7 +18 1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202417 ROKDSL Red Sox Red — 176146 38500 24274 168 260379295674 34314 1514 318 102 +0 +0 — — +5 0.5
202518 ROKDSL Red Sox Blue — 149114 321021 27254 132 281434430864 149337 1718 383 152 +9 +2 — — +4 1.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Brad Ausmuslast yr '10
career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA
114,2963939244319326+39+4312.412.0
/16266466+6.1+6.61.9pk7: 12
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA
72,8326234238305374+28+3311.611.6
/162664158+6.7+7.72.7pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17
career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA
83,2679864221297378+16+3611.011.4
/1626642013+3.2+7.32.2pk7: 12
#4Royce Claytonlast yr '07
career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA
83,9205470256311365+18+1710.110.0
/162664912+3.1+2.91.7pk7: 10
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17
career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA
103,1083684243310341+28+299.29.5
/162664818+5.9+6.22.0pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons
83,74270108227316345+40+2410.58.9
/1626641219+7.1+4.31.9pk7: 7
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA
72,830452244301351+21+317.27.2
/162664110+4.9+7.21.7pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Christopher Alvarado (OGILVIE) 19 44→49 31→36 63→68 65 201/317/288 87277 231 26% 13% 67 +0.2 ————————— —————————
✕Jett Williams
2023 · A 		19 45→46 41→45 56→55 43 214/285/313 99288 714 27% 7% 68 -0.5 203/314/320 117299 923 31% 12% 83 +0.6 201/310/335134289102630%12%81+0.3
✕Abiatal Avelino
2014 · A 		19 51→54 36→45 60→55 49 237/300/311 74283 224 16% 7% 72 -0.2 225/270/308 83284 522 21% 5% 59 -1.1 246/285/354108302101921%5%73-0.1
✕Charlie Culberson
2008 · A 		19 45→49 37→45 60→50 41 210/271/293 83300 418 30% 6% 56 -1.3 213/257/291 78286 511 26% 4% 49 -1.8 254/306/42216832418926%6%98+0.7
✕Tyler Pastornicky
2009 · A 		19 44→54 37→45 58→60 48 207/267/281 74251 424 19% 7% 51 -1.7 236/286/318 82279 528 17% 6% 68 -0.5 267/306/36610030581615%5%85+0.5
●L.J. Hoes
2009 · A 		19 50→60 37→40 56→50 52 233/301/304 71285 411 19% 9% 70 -0.3 238/285/305 67306 412 22% 6% 64 -0.8 278/336/3699133451517%7%97+1.5
●Angel Genao
2022 · A 		18 45→55 37→50 58→50 55 210/300/285 75268 416 22% 11% 66 -0.6 232/290/328 96308 711 25% 7% 72 -0.2 264/318/398134323111321%7%100+1.2
✕Leo Rivas
2018 · A 		20 47→54 37→40 56→65 55 219/317/294 75290 319 23% 11% 77 +0.1 188/270/271 83290 610 34% 10% 50 -1.7 239/352/3359531894424%14%101+1.2
✕Rudy Martin Jr.
2016 · A 		20 49 39→45 60→65 52 227/313/330 103311 416 26% 10% 83 +0.6 207/274/300 93331 626 36% 7% 59 -1.1 227/303/343115312135229%9%78+0.1
●Derek Hill
2015 · A 		19 41→51 40→50 55→60 47 200/269/291 91259 713 25% 8% 55 -1.4 199/251/270 71293 325 31% 6% 40 -2.4 248/301/422175338222932%6%100+0.7
✕Ryan Brett
2012 · A 		20 48→58 40→45 57→60 47 227/276/330 103266 518 16% 6% 66 -0.6 250/293/351 101309 726 20% 5% 79 +0.3 263/305/36910532483020%5%85+0.5
✕Luis Santana
2018 · A 		19 52 39→45 54→50 50 243/311/343 100274 511 13% 7% 85 +0.7 245/315/335 90288 69 16% 7% 85 +0.7 225/297/334109287111024%7%74-0.0
✕Masyn Winn
2022 · A 		20 42→52 40→50 57→55 42 201/257/293 92281 622 30% 7% 50 -1.8 232/286/367 135290 1221 23% 7% 82 +0.5 254/312/374120299111118%7%92+1.0
✕Jose Astudillo
2023 · A 		19 44 37→30 54→50 47 207/264/281 74251 314 19% 6% 50 -1.8 245/295/318 73283 314 14% 5% 72 -0.2 293/336/3909732081910%4%104+0.6
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr.
2023 · A 		20 51→53 39→40 54→50 56 239/327/329 91293 614 19% 11% 89 +1.0 243/317/334 91314 814 23% 8% 86 +0.8 243/318/3318831381423%8%83+0.4
✕Eury Pérez
2009 · A 		19 47→57 37→40 54→65 47 223/297/296 73290 520 23% 8% 68 -0.5 259/303/332 73320 428 19% 5% 78 +0.2 296/331/3909535933718%4%102+0.6
✕Jared Serna
2022 · A 		20 42→49 39→45 56→50 54 198/298/287 89252 522 22% 10% 67 -0.5 215/282/333 118275 1117 25% 7% 72 -0.2 214/272/339125267131524%6%65-0.5
✕Manuel Margot
2014 · A 		19 45→53 40→50 56→60 51 215/281/308 93243 619 14% 7% 64 -0.8 235/276/348 113272 927 17% 5% 72 -0.2 250/306/400150292142019%7%95+1.1
✕Adrian Pinto
2023 · A 		20 49 41→45 60→65 51 234/321/343 109284 729 19% 8% 91 +1.1 235/310/360 125296 1218 23% 8% 91 +1.1 230/307/35412428681321%9%82+0.1
✕Derrik Gibson
2010 · A 		20 48→54 37→40 56→55 45 223/290/300 76303 316 26% 7% 66 -0.6 200/260/251 51275 118 26% 7% 40 -2.4 236/301/3087231131123%8%69-0.2
✕Alen Hanson
2012 · A 		19 46→51 39→50 58→60 44 218/271/315 96273 419 21% 6% 61 -1.0 232/280/372 140293 1120 24% 6% 79 +0.3 252/286/391139300123020%4%83+0.4