Christopher Alvarado
SS FCL Red Sox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKDSL Red Sox R… | 176 | .260/.379/.295 | 0 | 16 | 35 | — | .175/.270/.195 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROKDSL Red Sox B… | 149 | .281/.434/.430 | 1 | 13 | 73 | — | .190/.324/.281 |
| 2026 | 19 | ROKBOS | 154 | .243/.431/.330 | 1 | 28 | 65 | — | .188/.320/.258 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBBOS | 264 | .209/.295/.291 | 2 | 8 | 69 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 21 | MLBBOS | 45 | .220/.305/.315 | 1 | 1 | 75 | 0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 22 | MLBBOS | 108 | .224/.309/.328 | 2 | 3 | 79 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 36
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 176 | 146 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 27 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 260 | 379 | 295 | 674 | 34 | 314 | 15 | 14 | 318 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Blue | — | 149 | 114 | 32 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 25 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 281 | 434 | 430 | 864 | 149 | 337 | 17 | 18 | 383 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 154 | 115 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 32 | 3 | 28 | 10 | 243 | 431 | 330 | 762 | 87 | 325 | 21 | 23 | 362 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 176 | 154 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 34 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 175 | 270 | 195 | 465 | 19 | 218 | 19 | 9 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Blue | — | 149 | 121 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 31 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 190 | 324 | 281 | 605 | 91 | 230 | 21 | 13 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 154 | 128 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 46 | 3 | 28 | 10 | 188 | 320 | 258 | 578 | 70 | 275 | 30 | 14 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 176 | 154 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 34 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 175 | 270 | 195 | 465 | 19 | 221 | 19 | 9 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 176 | 146 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 27 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 260 | 379 | 295 | 674 | 34 | 314 | 15 | 14 | 318 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Blue | — | 149 | 121 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 31 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 190 | 324 | 281 | 605 | 91 | 237 | 21 | 13 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Red Sox Blue | — | 149 | 114 | 32 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 25 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 281 | 434 | 430 | 864 | 149 | 337 | 17 | 18 | 383 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 154 | 128 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 46 | 3 | 28 | 10 | 188 | 320 | 258 | 578 | 70 | 280 | 30 | 14 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Red Sox | — | 154 | 115 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 32 | 3 | 28 | 10 | 243 | 431 | 330 | 762 | 87 | 325 | 21 | 23 | 362 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 176 | 154 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 34 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 175 | 270 | 195 | 465 | 19 | 218 | 19 | 9 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Blue | — | 149 | 124 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 31 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 185 | 324 | 274 | 598 | 89 | 230 | 21 | 13 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 154 | 128 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 46 | 3 | 28 | 10 | 188 | 320 | 258 | 578 | 70 | 275 | 30 | 14 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Red | — | 176 | 154 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 34 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 175 | 270 | 195 | 465 | 19 | 218 | 19 | 9 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Blue | — | 149 | 124 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 31 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 185 | 324 | 274 | 598 | 89 | 230 | 21 | 13 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 154 | 128 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 46 | 3 | 28 | 10 | 188 | 320 | 258 | 578 | 70 | 275 | 30 | 14 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | BOS | 0% | 264 | 233 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 70 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 209 | 295 | 291 | 587 | 82 | 283 | 27 | 10 | 271 | 69 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | BOS | 34% | 131 | 115 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 214 | 300 | 308 | 608 | 94 | 285 | 26 | 10 | 279 | 75 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB MLE | BOS | 48% | 223 | 196 | 43 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 57 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 218 | 304 | 320 | 624 | 103 | 286 | 26 | 10 | 285 | 79 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB MLE | BOS | 54% | 317 | 279 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 80 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 221 | 306 | 330 | 637 | 109 | 287 | 25 | 10 | 290 | 82 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB MLE | BOS | 55% | 387 | 342 | 77 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 97 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 224 | 308 | 338 | 646 | 114 | 289 | 25 | 10 | 293 | 85 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB MLE | BOS | 56% | 427 | 378 | 85 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 41 | 107 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 225 | 309 | 343 | 652 | 118 | 289 | 25 | 10 | 296 | 86 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +9 | 0.8 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB MLE | BOS | 56% | 448 | 397 | 89 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 43 | 112 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 225 | 309 | 343 | 653 | 118 | 289 | 25 | 10 | 296 | 86 | -7 | +2 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB MLE | BOS | 55% | 456 | 404 | 91 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 44 | 114 | 5 | 14 | 3 | 224 | 308 | 341 | 649 | 117 | 288 | 25 | 10 | 294 | 85 | -8 | +2 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 55% | 455 | 403 | 89 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 44 | 115 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 222 | 306 | 336 | 643 | 114 | 287 | 25 | 10 | 292 | 84 | -9 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.7 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB MLE | BOS | 53% | 447 | 396 | 88 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 43 | 114 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 220 | 304 | 330 | 634 | 110 | 286 | 26 | 10 | 288 | 81 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB MLE | BOS | 53% | 437 | 388 | 84 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 41 | 113 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 217 | 300 | 323 | 623 | 106 | 285 | 26 | 9 | 284 | 78 | -11 | +1 | -2 | +5 | +9 | 0.2 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB MLE | BOS | 52% | 422 | 375 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 111 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 213 | 296 | 313 | 609 | 100 | 282 | 26 | 9 | 278 | 74 | -13 | +1 | -3 | +5 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | BOS | 34% | 45 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 305 | 315 | 621 | 96 | 294 | 27 | 9 | 284 | 75 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB CTX | BOS | 48% | 108 | 96 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 224 | 309 | 328 | 637 | 105 | 295 | 26 | 9 | 290 | 79 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB CTX | BOS | 54% | 172 | 151 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 227 | 312 | 338 | 650 | 111 | 296 | 26 | 10 | 295 | 82 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB CTX | BOS | 55% | 215 | 189 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 54 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 230 | 314 | 346 | 659 | 116 | 298 | 25 | 10 | 299 | 85 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB CTX | BOS | 56% | 239 | 211 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 60 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 231 | 315 | 351 | 665 | 120 | 298 | 25 | 10 | 301 | 86 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB CTX | BOS | 56% | 252 | 223 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 63 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 231 | 315 | 351 | 666 | 120 | 298 | 25 | 10 | 301 | 86 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB CTX | BOS | 55% | 252 | 223 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 63 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 230 | 314 | 349 | 662 | 119 | 297 | 25 | 10 | 300 | 85 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 55% | 249 | 220 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 63 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 228 | 312 | 344 | 656 | 116 | 296 | 25 | 10 | 297 | 84 | -5 | +1 | -0 | +3 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB CTX | BOS | 53% | 239 | 211 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 61 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 226 | 309 | 338 | 647 | 112 | 295 | 26 | 10 | 294 | 81 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB CTX | BOS | 53% | 230 | 204 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 60 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 223 | 306 | 331 | 636 | 108 | 293 | 26 | 10 | 289 | 78 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB CTX | BOS | 52% | 220 | 195 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 58 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 219 | 301 | 321 | 622 | 102 | 291 | 26 | 10 | 284 | 74 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2221 | 1963 | 444 | 84 | 10 | 39 | 213 | 566 | 26 | 63 | 18 | 226 | 310 | 339 | 649 | 113 | 296 | 25 | 10 | 295 | 79 | -47 | +5 | -4 | +24 | +48 | 2.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 574 | 130 | 25 | 3 | 11 | 62 | 166 | 8 | 18 | 5 | 226 | 311 | 338 | 649 | 111 | 297 | 26 | 10 | 295 | 79 | -14 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4708 | 4146 | 902 | 152 | 32 | 75 | 465 | 1186 | 60 | 178 | 50 | 218 | 306 | 324 | 629 | 106 | 284 | 25 | 10 | 285 | 79 | -91 | +12 | -7 | +45 | +92 | 5.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 572 | 124 | 21 | 4 | 10 | 64 | 164 | 8 | 25 | 7 | 217 | 304 | 320 | 624 | 103 | 284 | 25 | 10 | 285 | 79 | -14 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKFCL Red Sox · 154 PAwOBA .357 → .265 (−92)K% 20.8% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.78% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 22.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 14.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 22.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 2.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 1.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.95% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .357 → .265; ISO .087 → .068; BABIP .325 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 DSLDSL Red Sox Blue · 149 PAwOBA .385 → .276 (−109)K% 16.8% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.78% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.12% | ÷0.959 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 13.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.68% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.35% | ÷0.932 | ×0.680 | ×1.023 | ×1.008 | 16.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.24% | ÷1.059 | ×0.600 | ×1.023 | ×1.008 | 6.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.25% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×1.023 | ×1.008 | 1.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.12% | ÷0.920 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.58% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 86, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 99, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .385 → .276; ISO .149 → .090; BABIP .337 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Red Sox Red · 176 PAwOBA .314 → .220 (−94)K% 15.3% → 19.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.34% | ÷0.965 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.044 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 9.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.025 | ×1.022 | 19.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.20% | ÷1.124 | ×0.600 | ×1.025 | ×1.022 | 2.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×1.025 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 80, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .314 → .220; ISO .034 → .020; BABIP .314 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).