Christopher Alvarado

SS FCL Red Sox
Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 162 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP35OGV rank#917ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKDSL Red Sox R…176.260/.379/.29501635—.175/.270/.195
202518ROKDSL Red Sox B…149.281/.434/.43011373—.190/.324/.281
202619ROKBOS154.243/.431/.33012865—.188/.320/.258
2027PROJMLE20MLBBOS264.209/.295/.29128690.0
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBBOS45.220/.305/.31511750.0
2029PROJ48% MLB22MLBBOS108.224/.309/.32823790.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
BB%90
Speed90
wRC+59
wOBA58
K%53
Whiff%46
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 94%
CompsJared Serna (age 20) · Adrian Pinto (age 21) · Derrik Gibson (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 79 proj PA
wRC+†69
AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .293 / .289
PA79
HR1
K%26
BB%10
ISO82
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +1.7 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.10.30.40.50.50.50.40.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 49 / POW 36
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT49
scouting grade only
POWER36
scouting grade only
EYE74
scouting grade only
SPEED72
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.5$1M+$0.8M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.5$1M+$0.7M
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.4$0.9M+$0.4M
2036Arb-1$2M+0.2$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2037Arb-2$2M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2038Arb-3$1.0M———
Totals $3M $4M +$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Red Sox Red — 176146 38500 24274 168 260379295674 34314 1514 318 35 — — — — — —
202518 ROKDSL Red Sox Blue — 149114 321021 27254 132 281434430864 149337 1718 383 73 — — — — — —
202619 ROKFCL Red Sox — 154115 28321 35323 2810 243431330762 87325 2123 362 65 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Red — 176154 27300 16344 168 175270195465 19218 199 220 35 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Blue — 149121 23611 20314 132 190324281605 91230 2113 276 73 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 154128 24221 22463 2810 188320258578 70275 3014 265 65 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Red — 176154 27300 16344 168 175270195465 19221 199 220 35 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Red Sox Red — 176146 38500 24274 168 260379295674 34314 1514 318 35 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Blue — 149121 23611 20314 132 190324281605 91237 2113 276 73 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWDSL Red Sox Blue — 149114 321021 27254 132 281434430864 149337 1718 383 73 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 154128 24221 22463 2810 188320258578 70280 3014 265 65 — — — — — —
202619 ROK RAWFCL Red Sox — 154115 28321 35323 2810 243431330762 87325 2123 362 65 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Red — 176154 27300 16344 168 175270195465 19218 199 220 35 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Blue — 149124 23611 20314 132 185324274598 89230 2113 276 73 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 154128 24221 22463 2810 188320258578 70275 3014 265 65 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Red — 176154 27300 16344 168 175270195465 19218 199 220 35 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Red Sox Blue — 149124 23611 20314 132 185324274598 89230 2113 276 73 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 154128 24221 22463 2810 188320258578 70275 3014 265 65 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEBOS 0% 264233 48822 26703 82 209295291587 82283 2710 271 69 -10 +1 +0 +3 +6 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEBOS 34% 131115 25412 13342 41 214300308608 94285 2610 279 75 -4 +0 +0 +1 +3 0.1
202922 MLB MLEBOS 48% 223196 43723 22573 72 218304320624 103286 2610 285 79 -6 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.2
203023 MLB MLEBOS 54% 317279 621125 31804 102 221306330637 109287 2510 290 82 -7 +1 +0 +3 +7 0.5
203124 MLB MLEBOS 55% 387342 771337 37975 123 224308338646 114289 2510 293 85 -7 +1 +0 +4 +8 0.7
203225 MLB MLEBOS 56% 427378 851538 411075 133 225309343652 118289 2510 296 86 -7 +1 +0 +5 +9 0.8
203326 MLB MLEBOS 56% 448397 891539 431125 143 225309343653 118289 2510 296 86 -7 +2 +0 +5 +10 0.9
203427 MLB MLEBOS 55% 456404 911639 441145 143 224308341649 117288 2510 294 85 -8 +2 +0 +5 +10 0.9
203528 MLB MLEBOS 55% 455403 891538 441155 133 222306336643 114287 2510 292 84 -9 +1 -1 +5 +10 0.7
203629 MLB MLEBOS 53% 447396 881538 431145 123 220304330634 110286 2610 288 81 -10 +1 -1 +5 +10 0.4
203730 MLB MLEBOS 53% 437388 841437 411135 113 217300323623 106285 269 284 78 -11 +1 -2 +5 +9 0.2
203831 MLB MLEBOS 52% 422375 801426 401114 93 213296313609 100282 269 278 74 -13 +1 -3 +5 +9 -0.1
202821 MLB CTXBOS 34% 4540 9201 4121 10 220305315621 96294 279 284 75 -1 +0 +0 +0 +1 0.0
202922 MLB CTXBOS 48% 10896 22412 10281 31 224309328637 105295 269 290 79 -3 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.1
203023 MLB CTXBOS 54% 172151 34613 17442 51 227312338650 111296 2610 295 82 -4 +1 +0 +2 +4 0.3
203124 MLB CTXBOS 55% 215189 43814 21543 72 230314346659 116298 2510 299 85 -4 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.4
203225 MLB CTXBOS 56% 239211 48914 23603 72 231315351665 120298 2510 301 86 -4 +1 +0 +3 +5 0.5
203326 MLB CTXBOS 56% 252223 521015 24633 82 231315351666 120298 2510 301 86 -4 +1 +0 +3 +5 0.5
203427 MLB CTXBOS 55% 252223 521015 24633 82 230314349662 119297 2510 300 85 -4 +1 +0 +3 +5 0.5
203528 MLB CTXBOS 55% 249220 49914 24633 72 228312344656 116296 2510 297 84 -5 +1 -0 +3 +5 0.4
203629 MLB CTXBOS 53% 239211 47914 23613 62 226309338647 112295 2610 294 81 -5 +0 -1 +3 +5 0.2
203730 MLB CTXBOS 53% 230204 46914 22602 62 223306331636 108293 2610 289 78 -6 +0 -1 +2 +5 0.1
203831 MLB CTXBOS 52% 220195 42813 21582 52 219301321622 102291 2610 284 74 -7 +0 -1 +2 +5 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 22211963 444841039 21356626 6318 226310339649 113296 2510 295 79 -47 +5 -4 +24 +48 2.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650574 13025311 621668 185 226311338649 111297 2610 295 79 -14 +2 -1 +7 +14 0.8
Career— MLE — 47084146 9021523275 465118660 17850 218306324629 106284 2510 285 79 -91 +12 -7 +45 +92 5.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650572 12421410 641648 257 217304320624 103284 2510 285 79 -14 +2 -1 +7 +14 0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Red Sox · 154 PAwOBA .357 → .265 (−92)K% 20.8% → 29.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.78%÷1.000×1.440——29.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA22.73%÷1.000×0.620—×1.00814.20%
HBP% /PA1.95%—×0.720—×1.0081.41%
Singles /BIP26.51%÷1.000×0.820×1.050×1.00822.99%
Doubles /BIP3.61%÷1.000×0.720×1.050×1.0082.75%
Triples /BIP2.41%÷1.000×0.720×1.050×1.0081.84%
Home runs /BIP1.20%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0080.95%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .357 → .265; ISO .087 → .068; BABIP .325 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Red Sox Blue · 149 PAwOBA .385 → .276 (−109)K% 16.8% → 20.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.78%÷0.997×1.220——20.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.12%÷0.959×0.700—×1.00813.32%
HBP% /PA2.68%—×0.700—×1.0081.89%
Singles /BIP21.35%÷0.932×0.680×1.023×1.00816.04%
Doubles /BIP11.24%÷1.059×0.600×1.023×1.0086.56%
Triples /BIP2.25%÷1.150×0.600×1.023×1.0081.21%
Home runs /BIP1.12%÷0.920×0.470—×1.0080.58%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 86, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 99, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .385 → .276; ISO .149 → .090; BABIP .337 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Red Sox Red · 176 PAwOBA .314 → .220 (−94)K% 15.3% → 19.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.34%÷0.965×1.220——19.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.64%÷1.044×0.700—×1.0229.35%
HBP% /PA2.27%—×0.700—×1.0221.63%
Singles /BIP27.73%÷1.000×0.680×1.025×1.02219.76%
Doubles /BIP4.20%÷1.124×0.600×1.025×1.0222.35%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.600×1.025×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.953×0.470—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 80, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .314 → .220; ISO .034 → .020; BABIP .314 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).