Cesar Lugo — OGILVIE

Cesar LugoOF ACL Cubs

Age 19 L/L 5'10" / 165 lbs ROK HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION198 act + 18 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .278 / .250

PA18

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP280

ISO62

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 32 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT32

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED58

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	164	129	34	11	1	1	31	21	4	15	4	264	421	388	808	124	308	13	19	374	139	+8	+1	—	—	+4	1.3
2025	18	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	125	106	26	5	2	0	15	31	3	7	4	245	355	330	685	85	342	25	12	316	100	+0	-0	—	—	+3	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	164	140	28	8	1	1	20	31	4	15	4	200	317	293	610	93	250	19	12	276	73	-5	+1	—	—	+4	-0.0
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	125	112	18	3	1	0	10	46	3	7	4	161	250	205	455	45	279	37	8	217	33	-10	-0	—	—	+3	-0.8
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	164	140	28	8	1	1	20	31	4	15	4	200	317	293	610	93	250	19	12	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	—	164	129	34	11	1	1	31	21	4	15	4	264	421	388	808	124	308	13	19	374	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	125	111	18	3	1	0	10	46	3	7	4	162	250	207	457	45	273	37	8	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	125	106	26	5	2	0	15	31	3	7	4	245	355	330	685	85	342	25	12	316	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	164	139	28	8	1	1	20	31	4	15	4	201	317	295	612	94	250	19	12	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	125	111	18	3	1	0	10	46	3	7	4	162	250	207	457	45	279	37	8	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	164	139	28	8	1	1	20	31	4	15	4	201	317	295	612	94	250	19	12	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	125	111	18	3	1	0	10	46	3	7	4	162	250	207	457	45	279	37	8	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	CHC	—	198	177	29	5	3	4	17	88	3	8	4	164	249	294	543	130	291	44	9	242	50	-12	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.9
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	CHC	—	198	166	42	8	5	6	28	61	3	8	4	253	371	470	840	217	360	31	14	371	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	CHC	0%	18	16	3	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	188	278	250	528	62	276	33	11	254	58	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
TOT	19	ROK MLE	CHC	—	216	193	32	6	3	4	19	94	3	8	4	166	251	290	541	124	292	44	9	243	51	-13	+0	+0	-1	+5	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	CHC	34%	246	220	42	8	2	4	21	81	3	5	2	191	270	300	570	109	279	33	9	266	66	-10	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.6
2027	20	MLB CTX	CHC	34%	85	77	15	3	1	1	7	28	1	2	1	195	271	299	569	104	283	33	8	259	66	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	85	77	15	3	1	1	7	28	1	2	1	195	271	299	569	104	292	33	8	259	61	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	115	23	8	8	54	214	8	15	8	195	272	302	575	107	292	33	8	259	61	-26	+0	+0	-4	+14	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	553	487	91	20	4	5	53	164	10	27	10	187	280	275	555	88	269	30	10	258	61	-11	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	108	24	5	6	62	193	12	32	12	189	281	280	561	91	272	30	10	258	61	-26	+0	+0	-4	+14	-1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	218	3	5	195	271	300	-1	+0	-0.4	-0.2
/162	664	10	14	-4.0	+0.0	-1.3	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cesar Lugo (OGILVIE)	19	27→32	35→40	53→58	60	183/263/288	105	276	2	4	35%	9%	58	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cole Roederer 2019 · A	19	41→32	43→45	53→50	41	205/260/318	113	293	11	15	33%	7%	62	-1.4	190/260/289	99	288	8	12	34%	8%	56	-1.9	187/254/298	112	272	13	12	34%	7%	56	-1.2
✕Yeremy Cabrera 2023 · A	18	37→42	38→45	53→60	48	181/263/263	82	240	5	13	26%	8%	52	-2.2	207/289/321	114	272	11	17	26%	9%	75	-0.5	202/287/312	110	269	12	24	27%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Danny Drullard 2019 · A	19	39	42→45	52→50	45	195/263/301	106	268	9	10	30%	8%	59	-1.6	198/260/301	103	293	9	9	33%	7%	59	-1.7	176/239/288	112	254	11	8	34%	7%	45	-1.2
✕Jaden Rudd 2022 · A	19	44→36	40→30	51→50	45	207/290/299	92	294	6	11	30%	8%	70	-0.8	180/288/254	74	275	4	13	32%	10%	61	-1.5	154/279/213	59	249	3	16	34%	11%	47	-1.1
✕Yohairo Cuevas 2023 · A	19	41→38	37→40	49→50	44	190/267/265	75	303	4	9	36%	9%	53	-2.1	194/280/281	87	310	5	14	35%	10%	63	-1.4	189/288/270	81	300	4	18	34%	11%	62	-0.8
✕Jefry Puente 2012 · A	20	35	37→45	55→50	47	170/258/247	77	249	3	11	30%	9%	47	-2.6	192/268/269	77	260	3	14	25%	8%	55	-2.0	163/244/219	56	209	0	27	20%	7%	32	-0.9
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	38→41	42→50	53→55	44	186/268/288	102	275	10	11	34%	9%	60	-1.6	201/285/320	119	319	11	16	37%	10%	73	-0.6	220/298/374	155	300	18	18	31%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Sandy Acevedo 2012 · A	19	40	37→45	51→50	38	189/252/264	74	291	4	12	34%	6%	47	-2.5	195/266/310	115	284	10	10	33%	7%	63	-1.3	173/254/316	143	241	13	10	32%	8%	58	-0.5
✕Luis Castillo 2023 · A	19	43→35	40→50	47→40	43	209/268/297	87	289	7	7	29%	7%	60	-1.6	185/251/289	104	278	11	4	35%	8%	53	-2.1	162/244/298	137	223	18	2	35%	9%	52	-1.2
✕David Calabrese 2023 · A	20	39	41→45	56→50	41	189/251/288	99	284	8	15	35%	7%	53	-2.1	182/253/293	111	267	12	13	34%	8%	55	-1.9	182/240/283	101	235	12	16	28%	7%	44	-1.3
✕Jake Fox 2023 · A	20	45→41	39→40	54→50	49	210/298/303	92	292	6	15	28%	10%	74	-0.5	194/266/289	95	271	7	11	29%	9%	59	-1.7	192/278/283	91	261	5	13	26%	10%	60	-0.8
✕Junior Franco 2022 · A	19	47→41	42→45	57→55	41	216/282/325	110	337	8	15	36%	8%	72	-0.7	205/254/311	106	294	11	18	32%	6%	59	-1.7	221/275/325	104	280	10	21	24%	6%	67	-0.6
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	41	37→40	53→55	43	195/256/271	76	260	4	13	25%	6%	50	-2.3	197/266/280	83	273	6	17	28%	7%	56	-1.9	189/268/272	83	254	9	24	27%	8%	54	-0.8
✕Gilbert Gomez 2011 · A	19	40→37	37→40	54→50	44	191/258/270	80	263	4	18	28%	7%	51	-2.2	202/266/283	81	296	5	9	31%	7%	57	-1.8	194/265/261	67	295	4	7	33%	8%	48	-1.4
✕Jose Acosta 2019 · A	19	39	37→45	53→55	47	185/259/257	72	250	4	14	26%	8%	49	-2.4	225/287/322	97	319	6	19	29%	7%	74	-0.6	203/263/320	117	308	11	21	36%	6%	62	-0.7
✕Carlos Sanchez 2010 · A	19	37	43→50	51→45	42	189/234/308	119	234	9	6	24%	5%	50	-2.3	218/268/329	111	260	8	7	18%	6%	68	-1.0	223/270/348	124	262	8	6	18%	5%	71	-0.3
✕Diomedes Del Rio 2017 · A	19	38	36→55	53→50	41	181/253/249	68	278	3	8	34%	7%	45	-2.7	199/265/293	94	283	4	9	29%	7%	58	-1.7	197/264/318	122	274	4	11	28%	7%	62	-0.4
✕Mikey Romero 2023 · A	19	45→41	41→50	54→40	42	218/267/327	109	294	7	8	28%	6%	67	-1.1	204/248/327	123	275	11	5	29%	5%	60	-1.6	192/233/335	142	258	14	3	31%	4%	54	-1.1
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	39	37→40	52→55	37	189/240/263	74	277	4	14	32%	5%	42	-2.9	195/241/256	61	285	3	7	31%	5%	40	-3.0	181/217/201	20	252	0	3	27%	4%	17	-1.4
✕Omar Lebron 2019 · A	20	39	41→40	49→55	45	192/265/289	97	247	9	15	26%	7%	59	-1.7	194/266/285	91	272	6	9	29%	7%	58	-1.7	150/240/231	81	213	3	9	28%	8%	35	-0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps