Cesar Lugo
OF ACL Cubs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKDSL Cubs Blue | 164 | .264/.421/.388 | 1 | 15 | 63 | — | .182/.317/.270 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROKCHC | 125 | .245/.355/.330 | 0 | 7 | 36 | — | .171/.258/.216 |
| 2026 | 19 | ROKCHC | 198 | .253/.371/.470 | 6 | 8 | 51 | — | .164/.249/.294 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBCHC | 308 | .189/.265/.286 | 4 | 6 | 57 | -0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 21 | MLBCHC | 52 | .196/.273/.304 | 1 | 1 | 62 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 41
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 164 | 129 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 21 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 264 | 421 | 388 | 808 | 124 | 308 | 13 | 19 | 374 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 125 | 106 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 31 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 245 | 355 | 330 | 685 | 85 | 342 | 25 | 12 | 316 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 198 | 166 | 42 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 61 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 253 | 371 | 470 | 840 | 217 | 360 | 31 | 14 | 371 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 164 | 137 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 26 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 182 | 317 | 270 | 587 | 88 | 212 | 16 | 14 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 125 | 111 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 46 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 171 | 258 | 216 | 474 | 45 | 285 | 37 | 8 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 198 | 177 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 88 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 164 | 249 | 294 | 543 | 130 | 287 | 44 | 9 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 164 | 137 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 26 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 182 | 317 | 270 | 587 | 88 | 218 | 16 | 14 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 164 | 129 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 21 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 264 | 421 | 388 | 808 | 124 | 308 | 13 | 19 | 374 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 125 | 111 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 46 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 171 | 258 | 216 | 474 | 45 | 288 | 37 | 8 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 125 | 106 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 31 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 245 | 355 | 330 | 685 | 85 | 342 | 25 | 12 | 316 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 198 | 177 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 88 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 164 | 249 | 294 | 543 | 130 | 291 | 44 | 9 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 198 | 166 | 42 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 61 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 253 | 371 | 470 | 840 | 217 | 360 | 31 | 14 | 371 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 164 | 136 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 26 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 184 | 317 | 272 | 589 | 88 | 212 | 16 | 14 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 125 | 111 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 46 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 171 | 258 | 216 | 474 | 45 | 285 | 37 | 8 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 198 | 176 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 88 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 165 | 249 | 295 | 544 | 131 | 287 | 44 | 9 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 164 | 136 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 26 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 184 | 317 | 272 | 589 | 88 | 212 | 16 | 14 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 125 | 111 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 46 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 171 | 258 | 216 | 474 | 45 | 285 | 37 | 8 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 198 | 176 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 88 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 165 | 249 | 295 | 544 | 131 | 287 | 44 | 9 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | CHC | 0% | 308 | 277 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 93 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 189 | 265 | 286 | 550 | 97 | 264 | 30 | 8 | 252 | 57 | -16 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | CHC | 34% | 151 | 136 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 45 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 271 | 300 | 571 | 106 | 266 | 30 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | CHC | 34% | 52 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 273 | 304 | 577 | 108 | 270 | 29 | 8 | 263 | 62 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 52 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 191 | 269 | 298 | 567 | 106 | 258 | 29 | 8 | 263 | 54 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 588 | 112 | 25 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 188 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 190 | 268 | 294 | 562 | 104 | 258 | 29 | 8 | 263 | 54 | -29 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 742 | 655 | 116 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 70 | 236 | 13 | 35 | 14 | 177 | 270 | 270 | 540 | 93 | 260 | 32 | 9 | 248 | 54 | -12 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 101 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 61 | 207 | 11 | 31 | 12 | 176 | 268 | 268 | 536 | 92 | 258 | 32 | 9 | 248 | 54 | -31 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKACL Cubs · 198 PAwOBA .363 → .243 (−120)K% 30.8% → 44.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 44.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.025 | ×1.008 | 18.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.025 | ×1.008 | 5.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.025 | ×1.008 | 3.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 4.49% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .363 → .243; ISO .217 → .143; BABIP .360 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Cubs · 125 PAwOBA .311 → .222 (−90)K% 24.8% → 36.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.80% | ÷0.969 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 7.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.40% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.33% | ÷1.004 | ×0.820 | ×1.034 | ×1.022 | 21.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.973 | ×0.720 | ×1.034 | ×1.022 | 5.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.67% | ÷1.089 | ×0.720 | ×1.034 | ×1.022 | 1.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.868 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 118, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .311 → .222; ISO .085 → .057; BABIP .342 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Cubs Blue · 164 PAwOBA .366 → .261 (−105)K% 12.8% → 16.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.80% | ÷0.976 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.90% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 13.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.44% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.44% | ÷1.008 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 14.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.19% | ÷1.028 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 6.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.963 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.911 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.49% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 106, 3B 93, K 95, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .366 → .261; ISO .124 → .079; BABIP .308 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).