Cesar Lugo — OGILVIE

Cesar LugoOF ACL Cubs

Age 19 L/L 5'10" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION171 act + 114 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†48

AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .257 / .284

PA114

HR2

K%34

BB%8

BABIP258

ISO108

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 31 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT31

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE59

scouting grade only

SPEED58

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	164	140	28	8	1	1	20	32	4	15	4	200	317	293	610	93	252	20	12	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	164	129	34	11	1	1	31	21	4	15	4	264	421	388	808	124	308	13	19	374	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	125	111	18	3	1	0	10	48	3	7	4	162	250	207	457	45	281	38	8	214	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	125	106	26	5	2	0	15	31	3	7	4	245	355	330	685	85	342	25	12	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	CHC	—	171	154	24	4	3	3	13	78	3	6	4	156	235	279	515	123	284	46	8	230	34	-13	-0	+0	-1	+5	-0.9
YTD	19	ROK	CHC	—	171	146	36	6	5	5	21	54	3	6	4	247	353	459	812	212	352	32	12	358	132	+6	-0	+0	-1	+5	1.0
ROS	19	ROK	CHC	0%	114	102	18	3	1	2	9	39	2	3	1	176	257	284	541	108	273	34	8	248	48	-7	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.4
ROS	19	MLB	CHC	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		274	—	—	239	41	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	CHC	—	171	155	24	4	3	3	13	78	3	6	4	155	235	277	513	123	280	46	8	230	34	-13	-0	+0	-1	+5	-0.9
TOT	19	ROK	CHC	—	285	256	42	7	4	5	22	117	5	9	5	164	244	281	525	117	272	41	8	237	40	-19	-0	+0	-2	+8	-1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	CHC	34%	286	256	49	9	3	5	24	95	4	6	2	191	271	309	580	117	277	33	8	261	58	-13	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.7
2027	20	MLB	CHC	34%	98	89	17	3	1	2	8	32	1	2	1	191	265	315	580	124	278	33	8	253	52	-5	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	98	90	17	3	1	2	8	32	1	2	1	189	265	311	576	122	268	33	8	253	52	-5	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	113	20	7	13	53	212	7	13	7	189	266	312	578	122	269	33	8	253	52	-36	-0	+0	-4	+18	-2.2
Career	—			—	689	609	113	23	6	8	63	214	13	31	11	186	276	282	558	97	269	31	9	254	52	-37	+2	+0	-4	+20	-2.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	108	22	6	8	59	202	12	29	10	188	277	289	566	101	272	31	9	254	52	-35	+2	+0	-4	+18	-1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	164	129	34	11	1	1	31	21	4	15	4	264	421	388	808	124	308	13	19	374	145	+8	+1	—	—	+5	1.5
2025	18	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	125	106	26	5	2	0	15	31	3	7	4	245	355	330	685	85	342	25	12	316	100	+0	-0	—	—	+4	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Juan Castrolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA	11	2,352	34	4	237	273	341	+10	+21	1.0	2.7
	/162	664	10	1	237	273	341	+3.0	+5.8	0.3	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	253	4	5	193	268	294	-2	+0	-0.7	-0.4
	/162	664	9	14	193	268	294	-4.0	+0.0	-1.9	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Cesar Lugo (OGILVIE)	19	26→31	34→39	53→58	59	164/244/281	117	272	5	9	41%	8%	40	-1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cole Roederer 2019 · A	19	41→31	43→45	53→50	41	205/260/318	113	293	11	15	33%	7%	57	-1.2	189/259/288	99	290	9	12	35%	8%	50	-1.7	180/254/293	113	270	13	11	36%	8%	49	-1.0
✕Yeremy Cabrera 2023 · A	18	37→41	38→45	53→55	48	181/263/262	81	241	5	13	26%	8%	46	-2.0	206/287/315	109	272	10	17	26%	9%	69	-0.4	200/284/304	104	268	11	24	28%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Danny Drullard 2019 · A	19	39	42→45	52→50	45	195/263/301	106	268	9	10	30%	8%	54	-1.4	198/260/301	103	293	9	9	33%	7%	53	-1.5	176/239/288	112	254	11	8	34%	7%	38	-1.1
✕David Calabrese 2023 · A	20	38→37	41→45	56→50	41	186/249/288	102	279	8	15	35%	7%	45	-2.1	184/254/304	120	272	13	13	35%	8%	53	-1.5	166/230/262	96	226	11	13	31%	7%	28	-1.4
✕Jaden Rudd 2022 · A	19	44→36	40→30	51→50	45	207/290/299	92	294	6	11	30%	8%	66	-0.6	182/289/257	75	276	4	13	32%	10%	57	-1.2	157/280/216	59	252	3	16	34%	11%	41	-1.0
✕Jefry Puente 2012 · A	20	35	37→45	55→50	47	170/258/247	77	249	3	11	30%	9%	40	-2.4	192/268/269	77	260	3	14	25%	8%	49	-1.8	163/244/219	56	209	0	27	20%	7%	23	-0.9
✕Mikey Romero 2023 · A	19	44→35	41→50	53→40	41	215/263/322	107	293	7	8	29%	6%	59	-1.1	201/245/325	124	273	11	5	30%	5%	53	-1.5	189/229/334	145	256	15	3	32%	4%	47	-1.0
✕Albert Fabian 2021 · A	19	43→34	39→50	47→40	44	203/274/294	91	290	6	7	30%	8%	58	-1.2	194/254/317	123	294	14	5	37%	7%	56	-1.3	212/269/333	121	257	14	6	23%	6%	63	-0.3
✕Gilbert Gomez 2011 · A	19	40→35	37→40	54→50	44	191/258/270	80	263	4	18	28%	7%	45	-2.1	201/265/282	81	295	5	9	31%	7%	50	-1.7	191/271/264	74	296	3	7	33%	9%	45	-1.3
✕Luis Castillo 2023 · A	19	43→25	39→45	48→40	42	207/266/291	84	290	6	7	30%	7%	53	-1.5	181/248/280	99	275	10	4	36%	8%	43	-2.2	149/230/273	124	212	16	2	36%	9%	33	-1.4
✕Jose Acosta 2019 · A	19	39	37→45	53→55	47	185/259/257	72	250	4	14	26%	8%	42	-2.3	225/287/323	98	318	6	19	29%	7%	70	-0.3	201/262/323	122	304	12	21	36%	6%	57	-0.6
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	40	37→40	53→55	42	193/254/272	79	260	4	13	26%	6%	43	-2.2	199/267/282	83	276	6	17	28%	7%	52	-1.6	193/273/276	82	259	9	24	27%	8%	51	-0.6
✕Yohairo Cuevas 2023 · A	19	41→40	37→40	49→50	44	189/267/264	76	304	4	9	36%	9%	47	-1.9	195/281/283	88	315	5	14	36%	10%	59	-1.1	194/297/288	95	310	5	16	35%	11%	65	-0.4
✕Henry Ramos 2023 · A	18	37	34→45	55	45	175/253/225	50	259	2	17	31%	8%	31	-3.0	179/240/248	69	278	4	16	35%	7%	30	-3.1	199/257/269	70	294	5	20	32%	6%	41	-1.0
✕Gabriel Terrero 2023 · A	19	38	37→50	51→45	42	180/260/249	69	278	5	12	34%	8%	41	-2.3	190/262/297	107	326	9	9	41%	8%	53	-1.5	160/235/297	137	288	11	7	45%	8%	40	-0.9
✕Sandy Acevedo 2012 · A	19	40	37→45	51→50	38	189/252/264	74	291	4	12	34%	6%	40	-2.4	195/266/310	115	284	10	10	33%	7%	59	-1.1	173/254/316	143	241	13	10	32%	8%	53	-0.5
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2010 · A	19	34	39→50	50→45	42	170/223/263	92	223	6	6	26%	6%	27	-3.3	214/258/312	98	290	9	7	28%	5%	54	-1.4	222/269/361	139	311	17	7	33%	5%	72	-0.1
✕Jake Fox 2023 · A	20	45→42	39→40	54→50	49	212/301/304	92	297	6	15	28%	10%	72	-0.2	195/269/291	96	274	7	11	29%	9%	55	-1.4	181/270/264	83	253	5	13	28%	11%	47	-0.9
✕Cristhian Vasquez 2016 · A	19	34	36→30	51→50	43	168/238/234	66	250	4	10	33%	8%	27	-3.3	179/237/253	74	242	5	9	27%	6%	31	-3.0	164/220/234	70	213	4	8	24%	5%	17	-1.4
✕Omar Lebron 2019 · A	20	39	41→40	49→55	45	192/265/289	97	247	9	15	26%	7%	53	-1.5	194/266/285	91	272	6	9	29%	7%	53	-1.5	150/240/231	81	213	3	9	28%	8%	27	-0.8