Jesus Lizardo — OGILVIE

Jesus LizardoC DSL Pirates Black

Age 19 S/R 5'11" / 170 lbs ROK HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION93 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP285

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$47M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 47 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT47

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE66

scouting grade only

SPEED51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.3M
2036	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$8M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$19M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Pirates Black	—	101	85	16	3	0	0	14	24	0	1	0	188	303	224	527	35	254	24	14	251	56	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2025	18	ROK	DSL Pirates Gold	—	136	108	24	2	1	0	24	20	0	2	0	222	364	259	623	37	264	15	18	294	85	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	—	101	90	12	2	0	0	9	35	0	1	0	133	212	156	368	22	199	35	9	173	3	-12	+0	—	—	+2	-0.9
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	136	117	21	1	1	0	15	30	0	2	0	179	273	205	478	26	219	22	11	221	36	-10	+0	—	—	+3	-0.7
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	—	101	90	12	2	0	0	9	35	0	1	0	133	212	156	368	22	211	35	9	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	—	101	85	16	3	0	0	14	24	0	1	0	188	303	224	527	35	254	24	14	251	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	136	117	21	1	1	0	15	30	0	2	0	179	273	205	478	26	233	22	11	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	—	136	108	24	2	1	0	24	20	0	2	0	222	364	259	623	37	264	15	18	294	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	—	101	91	12	2	0	0	9	35	0	1	0	132	212	154	366	22	199	35	9	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	136	120	21	1	1	0	15	30	0	2	0	175	273	200	473	25	219	22	11	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	—	101	91	12	2	0	0	9	35	0	1	0	132	212	154	366	22	199	35	9	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	—	136	120	21	1	1	0	15	30	0	2	0	175	273	200	473	25	219	22	11	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	PIT	—	93	79	18	4	1	1	14	22	0	3	0	228	344	342	686	114	304	24	15	315	99	-0	+1	+0	+2	+2	0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	PIT	—	93	69	23	6	2	1	23	15	0	3	0	333	495	522	1.016	188	415	16	25	449	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	PIT	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		287	30	10	278	74	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	19	ROK MLE	PIT	—	103	88	19	4	1	1	15	25	0	3	0	216	330	318	648	102	290	24	15	311	97	-0	+1	+0	+2	+2	0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PIT	34%	202	178	40	7	2	3	21	50	1	3	1	225	310	337	647	112	289	25	10	288	81	-4	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.4
2028	21	MLB MLE	PIT	48%	334	294	66	12	3	5	34	81	3	6	1	224	311	337	648	112	290	24	10	295	86	-6	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.9
2029	22	MLB MLE	PIT	54%	430	379	87	16	3	8	44	103	4	8	2	230	316	351	667	121	291	24	10	300	89	-6	+1	+0	+8	+9	1.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	PIT	57%	494	437	100	18	4	9	50	117	4	9	2	229	314	350	664	121	292	24	10	303	91	-5	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.6
2031	24	MLB MLE	PIT	57%	520	458	106	19	4	10	53	123	4	10	2	231	317	356	672	124	293	24	10	305	92	-5	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	PIT	57%	520	458	106	19	4	10	53	123	4	10	2	231	317	356	672	124	293	24	10	306	93	-4	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	PIT	56%	520	457	106	19	4	10	53	123	5	10	2	232	318	357	675	125	292	24	10	306	93	-4	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	PIT	55%	520	456	106	19	4	10	54	123	5	10	2	232	320	357	678	125	292	24	10	306	93	-4	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.8
2035	28	MLB MLE	PIT	55%	520	457	105	19	4	10	54	124	4	10	2	230	317	354	671	125	292	24	10	305	92	-5	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	PIT	53%	520	456	105	19	4	10	55	125	4	10	2	230	318	355	674	125	291	24	11	303	91	-5	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.5
2037	30	MLB MLE	PIT	53%	520	456	104	19	4	9	55	126	4	9	2	228	317	346	663	118	290	24	11	300	89	-7	+1	-2	+9	+11	1.3
2038	31	MLB MLE	PIT	57%	504	442	100	18	4	9	53	124	4	9	2	226	315	346	661	120	287	25	11	296	86	-8	+1	-3	+9	+11	1.0
2039	32	MLB MLE	PIT	54%	489	431	94	17	3	8	51	122	4	8	2	218	307	327	634	109	284	25	10	291	83	-10	+1	-4	+9	+11	0.7
2040	33	MLB MLE	PIT	58%	451	397	84	14	3	7	47	115	4	7	2	212	301	315	616	103	280	25	10	284	78	-12	+1	-4	+8	+10	0.3
2041	34	MLB MLE	PIT	53%	395	348	73	12	3	6	41	103	3	6	1	210	298	313	612	103	274	26	10	275	73	-13	+1	-5	+7	+9	-0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	PIT	34%	69	62	13	2	1	1	7	17	0	1	0	210	290	323	612	113	287	25	10	280	81	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	PIT	48%	162	143	31	6	1	2	17	39	1	3	1	217	304	315	619	98	288	24	10	286	86	-3	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	PIT	54%	233	205	47	9	2	4	24	56	2	4	1	229	316	351	667	122	289	24	10	290	89	-3	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2030	23	MLB CTX	PIT	57%	280	248	56	10	2	5	28	67	2	5	1	226	309	343	652	117	290	24	10	293	91	-3	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2031	24	MLB CTX	PIT	57%	294	259	59	11	2	5	30	70	3	6	1	228	315	344	659	116	291	24	10	295	92	-3	+1	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	PIT	57%	294	259	59	11	2	5	30	69	3	6	1	228	315	344	659	116	291	23	10	295	93	-2	+1	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2033	26	MLB CTX	PIT	56%	294	259	59	11	2	5	30	69	3	6	1	228	315	344	659	116	290	23	10	296	93	-2	+1	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2034	27	MLB CTX	PIT	55%	288	253	58	11	2	5	30	68	3	6	1	229	318	348	666	119	290	24	10	296	93	-2	+1	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2035	28	MLB CTX	PIT	55%	285	251	56	10	2	5	30	68	2	5	1	223	311	339	650	116	290	24	11	295	92	-3	+1	-0	+5	+6	0.9
2036	29	MLB CTX	PIT	53%	278	245	55	10	2	5	29	67	2	5	1	224	312	343	654	118	289	24	10	293	91	-3	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.8
2037	30	MLB CTX	PIT	53%	274	241	55	10	2	5	29	67	2	5	1	228	316	349	665	120	288	24	11	290	89	-3	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	PIT	57%	285	251	56	10	2	5	30	70	2	5	1	223	311	339	650	116	285	25	11	286	86	-5	+1	-2	+5	+6	0.6
2039	32	MLB CTX	PIT	54%	266	234	51	9	2	4	28	66	2	4	1	218	307	325	632	107	282	25	11	281	83	-5	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.4
2040	33	MLB CTX	PIT	58%	260	229	49	8	2	4	27	66	2	4	1	214	302	319	621	105	278	25	10	275	78	-7	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.2
2041	34	MLB CTX	PIT	53%	210	184	37	6	1	3	22	55	2	3	1	201	293	293	587	92	272	26	10	267	73	-7	+0	-3	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3772	3323	741	134	27	63	391	914	31	68	14	223	311	336	647	113	287	24	10	289	86	-53	+8	-11	+67	+82	9.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	128	23	5	11	67	158	5	12	2	223	310	339	648	115	288	24	10	289	86	-9	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7186	6320	1416	250	54	124	743	1750	57	128	27	224	311	340	651	116	288	24	10	295	86	-98	+14	-20	+124	+151	17.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	128	23	5	11	67	158	5	12	2	224	311	339	650	115	287	24	10	295	86	-9	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Castrolast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA	5.1	3,381	97	6	227	312	387	+60	+77	22.5	21.6
/162	664	19	1	+11.9	+15.1	4.4	pk7: 21
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#5Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	3.3	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
/162	664	19	8	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	5.9	3,886	68	70	227	310	345	+69	+36	12.4	10.1
/162	664	12	12	+11.9	+6.2	2.1	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Lizardo (OGILVIE)	19	42→47	30→35	46→51	66	213/298/302	89	287	1	2	25%	10%	74	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ramón Cabrera 2009 · A	19	43→53	40	51→40	49	209/274/305	96	254	7	7	20%	8%	65	-1.2	237/285/325	88	280	4	5	16%	6%	73	-0.6	271/325/356	85	309	2	3	12%	7%	92	+0.6
✕Shawn Zarraga 2009 · A	20	48	40	51→45	49	226/308/322	96	306	7	7	26%	9%	82	-0.0	222/294/296	74	305	5	6	26%	7%	71	-0.8	277/346/357	80	319	4	2	13%	7%	103	+0.5
✕Oswaldo Linares 2022 · A	19	42	36→40	47→40	55	196/303/262	65	273	4	8	27%	12%	68	-1.0	197/297/284	87	275	8	5	28%	11%	70	-0.8	175/284/254	79	245	9	2	29%	12%	58	-0.6
✕Angel Genao 2023 · A	19	45→55	37→45	51→50	46	211/284/282	71	293	4	12	28%	8%	63	-1.3	242/292/348	106	310	7	11	23%	6%	80	-0.1	262/318/385	123	318	10	13	20%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Jose Perez 2023 · A	19	41	36→40	44→45	50	191/273/255	63	252	3	8	24%	9%	53	-2.1	201/307/293	92	271	5	6	25%	12%	76	-0.4	184/305/272	88	246	5	5	24%	13%	69	-0.3
✕Omar Casamayor 2006 · A	19	45	37→40	43→55	46	212/282/286	74	280	3	7	24%	7%	63	-1.3	233/290/299	66	278	2	10	16%	6%	69	-0.9	249/301/308	60	288	1	12	13%	5%	70	-0.2
✕Michael Chirinos 2019 · A	19	49	36→40	51→55	56	226/296/292	67	252	4	11	12%	9%	70	-0.8	223/285/300	77	247	6	14	12%	8%	68	-1.0	217/274/284	67	224	7	22	7%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Jorge Minyety 2010 · A	19	46	35→30	50	55	208/299/269	61	275	1	14	22%	11%	67	-1.1	215/285/280	65	301	2	9	27%	9%	63	-1.4	224/291/259	35	315	0	4	26%	9%	56	-0.4
✕Maick Collado 2022 · A	19	42	38→40	48→45	51	198/287/276	78	260	5	6	24%	10%	64	-1.3	216/293/291	75	279	5	7	22%	9%	69	-0.9	211/293/279	67	267	5	6	21%	9%	67	-0.5
✕Jon Del Campo 2007 · A	19	43	38→45	45→55	46	205/268/282	77	271	6	5	26%	8%	57	-1.8	205/257/287	82	297	4	5	30%	6%	53	-2.1	267/298/376	109	332	10	18	22%	3%	90	+0.3
✕Dervy Ventura 2023 · A	19	43→50	36→40	50→55	48	201/279/276	75	282	2	6	28%	9%	60	-1.6	217/294/306	89	287	6	14	24%	9%	73	-0.6	220/305/307	86	295	7	22	25%	10%	74	-0.3
✕Adderly Rosa 2010 · A	19	45	35→40	48→50	55	208/309/268	60	269	2	13	21%	11%	71	-0.8	199/283/255	56	263	2	12	23%	9%	57	-1.8	188/270/235	47	247	1	13	22%	9%	46	-1.0
✕Jose Herrera 2016 · A	19	45	36→40	48→40	47	210/281/271	61	281	3	4	25%	8%	60	-1.6	204/255/286	82	260	6	3	23%	6%	53	-2.1	210/292/298	88	277	8	3	26%	10%	69	-0.5
✕Andy Paz 2012 · A	19	50	36→40	44→45	50	231/310/298	67	290	3	8	20%	8%	77	-0.3	208/273/281	73	275	4	5	24%	8%	59	-1.7	214/269/283	68	275	5	4	23%	7%	54	-0.5
✕Douglas Duran 2012 · A	19	45	40	44→50	49	218/283/312	95	272	7	9	22%	8%	70	-0.9	187/250/251	64	278	3	8	31%	8%	43	-2.8	120/187/132	12	201	0	8	37%	8%	-9	-1.4
✕Josh Johnson 2006 · A	20	43→49	39→45	48→50	50	203/280/297	94	266	5	9	24%	9%	65	-1.2	218/304/287	69	285	3	10	22%	11%	72	-0.7	244/312/343	100	289	8	16	17%	9%	85	+0.1
✕Yolmer Sánchez 2011 · A	19	45→55	36→50	49→50	55	209/304/274	65	270	3	8	22%	11%	70	-0.8	246/297/307	61	315	2	12	21%	5%	73	-0.6	248/310/361	113	309	7	9	21%	7%	88	+0.5
✕Ildemaro Vargas 2010 · A	19	45→55	37→45	47→50	45	209/276/285	76	270	3	10	23%	7%	61	-1.5	219/281/303	84	264	4	8	17%	6%	67	-1.1	274/316/367	93	291	7	12	8%	5%	91	+0.5
✕Nelson Quiroz 2021 · A	19	44	37→40	47→40	45	209/268/279	70	271	5	6	24%	7%	56	-1.9	225/291/332	107	274	8	5	20%	8%	77	-0.3	252/305/321	69	287	2	0	12%	6%	75	-0.1
✕Francisco Aponte 2010 · A	19	48	36→30	44→60	46	226/292/291	64	293	3	10	23%	7%	68	-1.0	226/299/284	58	282	1	19	19%	8%	69	-0.9	224/288/270	46	274	0	22	17%	8%	61	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps