Jesus Lizardo

C DSL Pirates Black
Age 20 S/R 5'11" / 170 lbs ROK HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP35OGV rank#575ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKDSL Pirates B…101.188/.303/.224011—.124/.212/.146
202518ROKDSL Pirates G…136.222/.364/.2590228—.157/.265/.183
202619ROKDSL Pirates B…93.333/.495/.5221382—.208/.344/.325
2027PROJMLE20MLBPIT203.219/.298/.29923710.1
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBPIT36.223/.302/.31201760.1
2029PROJ48% MLB22MLBPIT94.226/.305/.32212800.2
Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
wOBA96
Chase%96
wRC+95
BB%94
ISO80
Z-Con%78
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%
CompsDiego Velasquez (age 20) · Nacho Alvarez Jr. (age 20) · Josh Johnson (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj PA
wRC+†71
AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .295 / .297
PA51
HR0
K%26
BB%9
ISO80
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +1.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: +0.10+0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.30.50.60.60.60.50.40.20.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$24M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 62 / POW 34
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT62
scouting grade only
POWER34
scouting grade only
EYE75
scouting grade only
SPEED51
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.6$2M+$1M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.6$1M+$1.0M
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.5$1M+$0.7M
2036Arb-1$2M+0.4$0.8M+$0.1M
2037Arb-2$2M+0.2$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2038Arb-3$1.0M———
Totals $5M $5M +$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Pirates Black — 10185 16300 14240 10 188303224527 35254 2414 251 1 — — — — — —
202518 ROKDSL Pirates Gold — 136108 24210 24200 20 222364259623 37264 1518 294 28 — — — — — —
202619 ROKDSL Pirates Black — 9369 23621 23150 30 3334955221.016 188415 1625 449 82 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Pirates Black — 10189 11200 10290 10 124212146358 22167 2910 170 1 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Pirates Gold — 136115 18110 17250 20 157265183448 26181 1812 209 28 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEDSL Pirates Black — 9377 16411 16180 30 208344325669 117250 1917 290 82 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Pirates Black — 10189 11200 10290 10 124212146358 22177 2910 170 1 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Pirates Black — 10185 16300 14240 10 188303224527 35254 2414 251 1 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Pirates Gold — 136115 18110 17250 20 157265183448 26194 1812 209 28 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWDSL Pirates Gold — 136108 24210 24200 20 222364259623 37264 1518 294 28 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEDSL Pirates Black — 9377 16411 16180 30 208344325669 117259 1917 290 82 — — — — — —
202619 ROK RAWDSL Pirates Black — 9369 23621 23150 30 3334955221.016 188415 1625 449 82 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Pirates Black — 10190 11200 10290 10 122212144357 22167 2910 170 1 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Pirates Gold — 136118 18110 17250 20 153265178443 25181 1812 209 28 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEDSL Pirates Black — 9377 16411 16180 30 208344325669 117250 1917 290 82 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Pirates Black — 10190 11200 10290 10 122212144357 22167 2910 170 1 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Pirates Gold — 136118 18110 17250 20 153265178443 25181 1812 209 28 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEDSL Pirates Black — 9377 16411 16180 30 208344325669 117250 1917 290 82 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEPIT 0% 203181 40622 19521 31 219298299597 80295 269 274 71 -7 +0 +0 +4 +4 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEPIT 34% 10593 20311 10271 21 223302313615 90296 2610 281 76 -3 +0 +0 +2 +2 0.1
202922 MLB MLEPIT 48% 193172 38622 18481 41 226305324629 98297 259 286 80 -5 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.3
203023 MLB MLEPIT 54% 289258 591024 27722 52 229307333641 104298 259 291 83 -6 +0 +0 +5 +6 0.6
203124 MLB MLEPIT 55% 366326 761336 34903 72 231309341650 110298 259 294 85 -6 +1 +0 +7 +8 0.9
203225 MLB MLEPIT 56% 409365 841437 381003 83 232310346656 114298 249 297 87 -6 +0 +0 +7 +9 1.0
203326 MLB MLEPIT 56% 436389 901538 411073 83 232310347657 114298 259 297 87 -7 +0 +0 +8 +9 1.1
203427 MLB MLEPIT 55% 445397 911538 421103 83 231309344653 113297 259 295 86 -7 +0 +0 +8 +10 1.1
203528 MLB MLEPIT 55% 445397 901537 421113 83 229307339647 110296 259 293 84 -8 +0 -1 +8 +10 0.9
203629 MLB MLEPIT 53% 439392 891537 411103 73 227305333638 106295 259 289 82 -9 +0 -1 +8 +10 0.7
203730 MLB MLEPIT 53% 430384 861436 401093 64 224301325626 101293 259 285 79 -11 -0 -2 +8 +9 0.4
203831 MLB MLEPIT 52% 394353 781335 361022 55 220296315611 95290 269 279 75 -12 -1 -3 +7 +9 -0.0
202821 MLB CTXPIT 34% 3633 6100 390 10 223302312613 89297 258 280 76 -1 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.1
202922 MLB CTXPIT 48% 9484 19311 9241 21 226305322627 96298 2610 286 80 -2 +0 +0 +2 +2 0.2
203023 MLB CTXPIT 54% 157140 32612 15391 31 228307331638 102298 2510 290 83 -3 +0 +0 +3 +3 0.3
203124 MLB CTXPIT 55% 203181 42723 19501 41 231309338647 107299 259 293 85 -4 +0 +0 +4 +4 0.5
203225 MLB CTXPIT 56% 229204 48824 21562 42 232310343652 111299 249 295 87 -4 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.6
203326 MLB CTXPIT 56% 245218 51924 23602 52 232310343653 112298 249 295 87 -4 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.6
203427 MLB CTXPIT 55% 246219 51924 23612 52 231309341650 110298 259 294 86 -4 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.6
203528 MLB CTXPIT 55% 244217 51924 23612 42 229307336643 107297 259 291 84 -5 +0 -0 +4 +5 0.5
203629 MLB CTXPIT 53% 235209 47823 22592 42 226304330634 104296 259 288 82 -5 +0 -1 +4 +5 0.4
203730 MLB CTXPIT 53% 226202 46823 21581 32 224301322623 99294 269 283 79 -6 -0 -1 +4 +5 0.2
203831 MLB CTXPIT 52% 205183 41713 19531 32 219296313609 93291 269 278 75 -6 -0 -1 +4 +4 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 21201890 434751731 19853015 3817 230308337644 107301 259 290 79 -43 +1 -4 +38 +46 3.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650579 13323510 611625 125 230309339647 109300 259 290 79 -13 +0 -1 +12 +14 1.2
Career— MLE — 43323853 8561423162 417107127 7530 222303323626 101289 2510 285 79 -83 +2 -7 +71 +87 7.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650578 1282159 631614 115 221303322625 100289 2510 285 79 -13 +0 -1 +12 +14 1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Pirates Black · 93 PAwOBA .439 → .290 (−149)K% 16.1% → 19.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.13%÷1.000×1.220——19.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA24.73%÷1.000×0.700—×0.98517.05%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.700—×0.9850.00%
Singles /BIP25.93%÷1.000×0.680×0.950×0.98516.50%
Doubles /BIP11.11%÷1.000×0.600×0.950×0.9856.24%
Triples /BIP3.70%÷1.000×0.600×0.950×0.9852.08%
Home runs /BIP1.85%÷1.000×0.470—×0.9850.86%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .439 → .290; ISO .188 → .111; BABIP .415 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Pirates Gold · 136 PAwOBA .294 → .209 (−85)K% 14.7% → 18.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.71%÷0.975×1.220——18.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.65%÷1.010×0.700—×0.99512.17%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.700—×0.9950.00%
Singles /BIP23.86%÷0.973×0.680×1.010×0.99516.75%
Doubles /BIP2.27%÷1.061×0.600×1.010×0.9951.29%
Triples /BIP1.14%÷1.077×0.600×1.010×0.9950.64%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.181×0.470—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 95, 2B 112, 3B 115, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .294 → .209; ISO .037 → .022; BABIP .264 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Pirates Black · 101 PAwOBA .251 → .170 (−81)K% 23.8% → 29.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.76%÷0.994×1.220——29.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.86%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0089.77%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.700—×1.0080.00%
Singles /BIP21.31%÷1.002×0.680×0.976×1.00814.22%
Doubles /BIP4.92%÷0.968×0.600×0.976×1.0083.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.009×0.600×0.976×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.470—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 100, 2B 94, 3B 102, K 99, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .251 → .170; ISO .035 → .022; BABIP .254 → .167. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).