Kendy Richard — OGILVIE

Kendy Richard P Augusta GreenJackets

+0.0 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2031

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.9%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%11.9%

IP52

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2031

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	DSL Braves	13	0	21	84	16	8	2	13.0%	11.9%	4.4%	3.48	5.95	-0.2
2025	20	A	Augusta GreenJackets	16	10	68	281	64	30	3	16.1%	13.1%	1.6%	2.38	4.28	+0.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	Augusta GreenJackets	2	2	6	35	4	9	0	—	—	—	19.50	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	ATL	52	—	52	220	48	22	6	21.9%	10.1%	2.9%	4.48	4.48	+0.3
2026 Total	21	MLB	ATL	—	—	58	255	52	31	6	20.5%	12.2%	2.5%	6.03	4.02	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	ATL	55	—	55	231	53	22	7	23.0%	9.3%	2.8%	4.34	4.27	+0.4
2028	23	MLB	ATL	57	—	57	240	57	21	7	23.7%	8.9%	2.8%	4.21	4.13	+0.5
2029	24	MLB	ATL	58	—	58	246	60	21	7	24.3%	8.6%	2.8%	4.11	4.04	+0.6
2030	25	MLB	ATL	59	—	59	249	61	21	7	24.6%	8.5%	2.8%	4.04	3.99	+0.6
2031	26	MLB	ATL	59	—	59	249	62	21	7	24.8%	8.4%	2.8%	4.00	3.97	+0.7
2032	27	MLB	ATL	59	—	59	247	61	21	7	24.9%	8.4%	2.8%	3.98	3.97	+0.7
2033	28	MLB	ATL	58	—	58	244	60	21	7	24.8%	8.5%	2.8%	3.99	4.00	+0.6
2034	29	MLB	ATL	56	—	56	238	59	20	7	24.7%	8.6%	2.8%	4.02	4.05	+0.6
2035	30	MLB	ATL	55	—	55	231	57	20	7	24.5%	8.7%	2.9%	4.07	4.11	+0.5
2036	31	MLB	ATL	53	—	53	223	54	20	7	24.2%	8.8%	3.0%	4.14	4.18	+0.5
2037	32	MLB	ATL	51	—	51	214	51	19	7	23.9%	8.9%	3.1%	4.22	4.27	+0.4
2038	33	MLB	ATL	48	—	48	204	48	19	6	23.6%	9.1%	3.1%	4.31	4.37	+0.3
2039	34	MLB	ATL	46	—	46	194	45	18	6	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	4.41	4.48	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			31	12	95	400	60	56	8	15.0%	13.9%	2.1%	3.71	4.73	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—			65	25	200	845	127	118	17	15.0%	13.9%	2.1%	3.71	4.73	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kendy Richard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	21.9%	10.1%	2.9%	—	4.14	23.7%	14.8%	170	-0.34	—	—	—
Juan Nuñez R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	19.6%	13.2%	2.5%	.300	4.42	22.8%	8.3%	148	-0.07	2.88	245	94
John Klein R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	21	SW	4.53	17.4%	11.4%	2.6%	.287	3.72	19.4%	10.1%	207	-0.81	3.22	260	93
Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.34	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.63	4.71	137	92
William Kempner R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	91
Nick Garcia R 2027 · 4.54 FIP	22	SW	4.54	18.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.274	5.03	17.3%	5.9%	265	+0.49	4.28	355	91
Chih-Jung Liu R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.10	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.65	4.45	283	90
Christian Roa R 2027 · 4.94 FIP	22	SW	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	5.00	22.7%	6.2%	260	+0.06	4.35	373	90
Noah Skirrow R 2028 · 4.56 FIP	23	SW	4.56	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.78	16.2%	5.7%	316	+0.22	3.98	371	90
Frank German R 2026 · 4.99 FIP	21	SW	4.99	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.60	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.39	3.09	218	89
Craig Missigman R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	22	SW	4.02	19.2%	11.4%	2.0%	.270	5.04	19.2%	10.4%	53	+1.02	4.02	124	89
Jake Lyons R 2027 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.61	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.16	4.10	174	89
Levi Wells R 2027 · 4.35 FIP	22	SW	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.5%	.360	3.54	19.5%	9.7%	110	-0.81	2.08	170	89
José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	21	SW	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.79	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.25	3.12	543	89
Luis Garcia R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	21	SW	4.31	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.59	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.72	3.45	535	89
Jack Carey R 2027 · 4.70 FIP	22	SW	4.70	16.8%	10.9%	3.0%	.333	4.28	19.5%	8.2%	156	-0.42	3.79	217	89
Alec Barger R 2028 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.34	3.86	242	89
Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	89
Brett Standlee R 2028 · 4.11 FIP	23	SW	4.11	19.7%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	4.48	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.37	4.11	128	88
Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.57	2.58	408	88
Seth McGarry R 2027 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	16.9%	12.3%	1.9%	.320	4.27	17.9%	6.4%	201	+0.01	3.40	261	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.5	$3M	+$2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$15M	+$10M