Madinson Frias — OGILVIE

Madinson Frias P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 121

ERA5.46

FIP5.46

K%17.4%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%2.4%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	11	11	40	163	24	19	0	100%	3.7	10.0%	14.6%	-4.6%	0.0%	2.23	4.10	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	11	11	40	163	24	19	0	100%	3.7	10.0%	14.6%	-4.6%	0.0%	2.23	4.10	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	11	11	40	163	24	19	0	100%	3.7	14.7%	11.7%	3.1%	0.0%	2.23	3.32	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	3	30	137	22	19	0	27%	2.7	10.9%	17.3%	-6.4%	0.0%	6.30	4.37	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	3	30	137	22	19	0	27%	2.7	10.9%	17.3%	-6.4%	0.0%	6.30	4.37	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	11	3	30	137	22	19	0	27%	2.7	16.1%	13.9%	2.2%	0.0%	6.30	3.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	8	6	31	149	23	19	6	75%	3.9	11.4%	15.0%	-3.6%	5.2%	6.68	6.91	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	8	6	31	149	23	19	6	75%	3.9	11.4%	15.0%	-3.6%	5.2%	6.68	6.91	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	BOS	8	6	31	149	23	19	6	75%	3.9	15.4%	12.8%	2.7%	4.0%	6.68	5.62	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BOS	7	7	38	161	31	21	4	100%	5.4	19.4%	13.0%	6.5%	2.8%	5.14	5.01	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	BOS	3	3	19	80	16	10	2	100%	6.3	19.4%	13.0%	6.5%	2.8%	5.14	5.01	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	19	79	15	10	2	100%	6.2	19.4%	13.0%	6.5%	2.8%	5.14	4.63	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	160	107	21	100%	5.5	19.4%	13.0%	6.5%	2.8%	5.14	4.63	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		30	20	101	449	48	70	8	67%	3.4	10.8%	15.6%	-4.8%	1.7%	4.80	5.12	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	39	200	886	95	138	15	67%	3.4	10.8%	15.6%	-4.8%	1.7%	4.80	5.12	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Madinson Frias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.46	17.4%	15.0%	2.8%	—	5.01	19.4%	6.5%	38	-0.45	—	—	—
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	86
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	85
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	84
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	84
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	84
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	83
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	82
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	82
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	81
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	81
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	81
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	80
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	80
Tyler Mark R 2016 · 4.52 FIP	21	SP-	4.52	15.5%	11.9%	2.2%	.400	4.74	17.5%	3.9%	170	+0.22	2.94	194	80
Jean Marcelino R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	21	SP-	5.24	15.4%	13.4%	3.2%	.377	6.68	11.8%	-24.4%	12	+1.44	3.68	102	80
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	80
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	80
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	80
Juan Mota R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	21	SP-	4.28	18.4%	14.8%	1.6%	.309	5.10	17.5%	5.8%	111	+0.82	3.89	279	79
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	18.8%	13.7%	1.08	5.25
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99