Madinson Frias
P
Salem RidgeYaks
Age 21
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 20 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 102
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
K%21.8%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP20
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Red | 11 | 11 | 40 | 163 | 24 | 19 | 0 | 100% | 3.7 | 10.0% | 14.6% | -4.6% | 0.0% | 2.23 | 4.10 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Red | 11 | 11 | 40 | 163 | 24 | 19 | 0 | 100% | 3.7 | 14.7% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 2.23 | 3.32 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 11 | 3 | 30 | 137 | 22 | 19 | 0 | 27% | 2.7 | 10.9% | 17.3% | -6.4% | 0.0% | 6.30 | 4.37 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 11 | 3 | 30 | 137 | 22 | 19 | 0 | 27% | 2.7 | 16.1% | 13.9% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 6.30 | 3.53 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Salem RidgeYaks | 8 | 6 | 31 | 149 | 23 | 19 | 6 | 75% | 3.9 | 11.4% | 15.0% | -3.6% | 5.2% | 6.68 | 6.91 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | BOS | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.48 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 51 | 233 | 41 | 28 | 8 | — | — | 17.7% | 11.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 5.82 | 5.96 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 4 | 4 | 21 | 88 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.27 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.1 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 3.89 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 78 | 19 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 30 | 20 | 101 | 449 | 48 | 70 | 8 | 67% | 3.4 | 10.8% | 15.6% | -4.8% | 1.7% | 4.80 | 5.12 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 39 | 200 | 886 | 95 | 138 | 15 | 67% | 3.4 | 10.8% | 15.6% | -4.8% | 1.7% | 4.80 | 5.12 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Madinson Frias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.27 | 22.8% | 13.5% | 21 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .264 | 4.88 | 14.1% | 3.4% | 117 | +1.04 | 3.84 | 206 | 84 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 84 |
| Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 83 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 83 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 83 |
| Michael Knorr R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 83 |
| Colin Fields R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 82 |
| Tanner Hall R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.0% | .295 | 5.39 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.83 | 4.56 | 137 | 81 |
| Miguel Rodriguez R 2025 · 3.30 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.0% | .329 | 5.83 | 19.9% | 7.7% | 108 | +2.53 | 2.55 | 272 | 81 |
| Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.33 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .343 | 6.52 | 19.2% | 11.3% | 197 | +2.19 | 3.27 | 243 | 81 |
| Alejandro Rivera R 2024 · 3.30 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.30 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 116 | 81 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 81 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2028 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 81 |
| Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.17 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 2.6% | .366 | 3.31 | 22.3% | 15.2% | 61 | -0.86 | 3.25 | 266 | 81 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2028 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 80 |
| Casey Legumina R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 80 |
| Ray Gaither R 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 80 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 3.45 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.15 | 2.98 | 107 | 80 |
| Saul Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.69 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .320 | 3.27 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 70 | -0.42 | 2.98 | 110 | 80 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2029 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 80 |