Israfell Bautista

Israfell Bautista3B FCL Rays

Age 19 S/R 6'2" / 155 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION194 act + 129 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†44

AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .273 / .234

PA129

HR0

SB10

K%29

BB%9

BABIP281

ISO43

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.3M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	168	154	34	2	1	0	9	49	2	39	5	221	273	247	519	26	318	29	5	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	168	148	41	3	1	0	15	32	2	39	5	277	352	311	662	34	347	19	9	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	218	191	37	3	1	0	23	50	2	45	5	194	287	220	507	26	262	23	11	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	218	176	49	4	2	0	38	35	2	45	5	278	412	324	736	45	348	16	17	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	TB	—	194	164	27	1	1	0	22	69	3	32	4	165	275	183	458	18	273	36	11	214	22	-17	+5	+0	+1	+5	-0.6
YTD	19	ROK	TB	—	194	151	32	1	1	0	35	48	3	32	4	212	370	232	602	20	299	25	18	292	82	-4	+5	+0	+1	+5	0.7
ROS	19	ROK	TB	0%	129	115	22	3	1	0	12	38	1	10	1	191	273	234	507	43	279	29	9	243	44	-8	+2	+0	+0	+4	-0.2
ROS	19	MLB	TB	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		283	—	—	237	40	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	TB	—	194	165	27	1	1	0	22	69	3	32	4	164	275	182	457	18	270	36	11	214	22	-17	+5	+0	+1	+5	-0.6
TOT	19	ROK	TB	—	323	279	49	4	2	0	34	107	4	42	5	175	274	204	478	29	276	33	11	226	31	-25	+6	+0	+1	+9	-0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	TB	34%	330	292	59	8	2	3	31	94	4	13	2	202	287	274	561	72	282	28	9	260	57	-16	+2	+0	+1	+9	-0.4
2028	21	MLB	TB	48%	431	382	80	12	2	6	41	120	5	14	2	209	294	298	593	89	284	28	10	272	66	-16	+2	+0	+2	+12	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	TB	54%	500	443	95	14	3	8	47	136	6	15	2	214	298	314	612	99	286	27	9	280	72	-16	+2	+0	+2	+14	0.2
2030	23	MLB	TB	57%	545	481	105	16	3	10	52	147	7	15	2	218	304	326	630	108	287	27	10	284	76	-15	+2	+0	+2	+15	0.5
2031	24	MLB	TB	57%	573	506	110	16	3	11	55	154	7	15	2	217	303	326	629	109	288	27	10	287	78	-15	+2	+0	+2	+16	0.6
2032	25	MLB	TB	57%	589	520	114	17	3	11	57	158	7	15	2	219	305	327	632	108	288	27	10	288	79	-14	+2	+0	+2	+17	0.7
2033	26	MLB	TB	56%	596	527	115	17	3	12	57	160	7	15	2	218	303	330	633	112	288	27	10	289	79	-14	+2	+0	+2	+17	0.7
2034	27	MLB	TB	55%	595	525	115	17	3	12	58	160	7	15	2	219	305	331	637	112	287	27	10	289	79	-14	+2	+0	+2	+17	0.7
2035	28	MLB	TB	55%	591	521	113	17	3	11	58	160	7	14	2	217	304	324	628	107	287	27	10	287	78	-15	+2	-1	+2	+17	0.6
2036	29	MLB	TB	53%	581	512	111	16	3	11	57	158	7	14	2	217	304	324	628	107	286	27	10	285	77	-15	+2	-1	+2	+16	0.4
2027	20	MLB	TB	34%	113	100	21	3	1	1	11	32	1	4	1	210	295	290	585	80	287	28	10	254	52	-6	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.2
2028	21	MLB	TB	48%	209	184	40	6	1	3	20	58	3	7	1	217	304	310	614	92	289	28	10	265	61	-9	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.2
2029	22	MLB	TB	54%	271	240	52	7	2	4	26	74	3	8	1	217	301	312	614	96	290	27	10	272	66	-10	+1	+0	+1	+8	-0.0
2030	23	MLB	TB	57%	308	272	60	9	2	5	29	83	4	9	1	221	305	324	628	103	291	27	9	277	70	-10	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.1
2031	24	MLB	TB	57%	324	286	63	9	2	6	31	87	4	9	1	220	305	329	634	108	292	27	10	279	72	-10	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.1
2032	25	MLB	TB	57%	333	294	65	9	2	6	32	89	4	9	1	221	306	327	633	105	292	27	10	280	73	-10	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.2
2033	26	MLB	TB	56%	337	298	65	9	2	6	32	90	4	9	1	218	302	322	625	104	292	27	9	281	73	-10	+1	+0	+1	+10	0.2
2034	27	MLB	TB	55%	330	291	64	9	2	6	32	89	4	8	1	220	306	326	632	107	291	27	10	281	73	-10	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.2
2035	28	MLB	TB	55%	324	285	63	9	2	6	32	87	4	8	1	221	308	330	638	109	291	27	10	280	72	-10	+1	-0	+1	+9	0.1
2036	29	MLB	TB	53%	311	273	60	8	2	6	31	85	4	7	1	220	308	330	638	110	290	27	10	278	71	-10	+1	-1	+1	+9	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2860	2524	553	78	18	49	276	774	35	78	10	219	305	323	627	103	293	27	10	277	70	-97	+12	-1	+10	+81	0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	126	18	4	11	63	176	8	18	2	220	306	322	628	103	294	27	10	277	70	-22	+3	-0	+2	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	5846	5169	1110	158	31	95	557	1584	69	239	31	215	300	312	612	98	288	27	10	280	72	-184	+35	-2	+21	+166	3.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	124	18	3	11	62	176	8	27	3	216	301	315	616	99	289	27	10	280	72	-21	+4	-0	+2	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	168	148	41	3	1	0	15	32	2	39	5	277	352	311	662	34	347	19	9	303	90	-2	+6	—	—	+5	0.9
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	218	176	49	4	2	0	38	35	2	45	5	278	412	324	736	45	348	16	17	345	122	+6	+7	—	—	+6	1.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	10	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
	/162	664	10	19	228	318	337	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	3,093	52	85	216	298	317	+11	+3	1.9	2.1
	/162	664	11	18	216	298	317	+2.4	+0.6	0.4	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Israfell Bautista (OGILVIE)	19	45	20	60	60	175/274/204	29	276	0	42	33%	11%	31	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Emmanuel Morel 2016 · A	19	45	35→30	53→55	49	207/286/270	62	293	2	17	28%	9%	56	-1.3	187/257/246	59	306	2	15	36%	8%	38	-2.6	139/207/173	34	251	0	17	41%	7%	-4	-1.2
✕Jorge Minyety 2010 · A	19	46	35→30	50	55	208/299/269	61	275	1	14	22%	11%	63	-0.9	216/285/281	65	304	2	9	27%	9%	59	-1.1	227/294/263	36	322	0	4	27%	9%	53	-0.3
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→46	38→30	53→60	41	203/260/286	83	285	4	12	29%	6%	49	-1.8	223/283/291	68	291	2	11	22%	7%	59	-1.1	217/330/261	45	297	1	34	24%	14%	71	-0.2
✕Jose Constanza 2007 · A	19	47	34→30	51→60	54	213/308/264	51	310	2	22	28%	12%	65	-0.7	225/318/285	60	306	2	17	24%	12%	74	-0.1	236/346/282	46	308	0	21	20%	14%	83	+0.2
✕Yonny Hernández 2017 · A	19	47→57	34→30	53→60	52	216/292/271	55	261	1	19	16%	8%	59	-1.1	225/304/282	57	280	1	24	18%	9%	67	-0.5	268/330/326	58	319	3	17	16%	7%	84	+0.3
✕Carlos Willoughby 2008 · A	19	48→42	36→40	53→60	49	225/302/290	65	279	3	17	19%	7%	69	-0.4	231/314/298	67	298	2	28	21%	9%	76	+0.0	235/320/307	72	303	1	35	20%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Julio Izturis 2009 · A	19	47	34→30	55→60	55	215/311/263	48	261	2	25	17%	10%	66	-0.6	226/302/298	72	296	4	17	23%	8%	70	-0.3	242/304/298	57	323	4	23	25%	6%	70	-0.1
✕Nasim Nuñez 2021 · A	20	41→49	35→30	57→65	47	191/265/249	58	276	2	20	30%	9%	42	-2.3	209/294/259	50	308	2	38	29%	10%	57	-1.2	210/286/268	58	278	5	56	25%	9%	54	-1.0
✕Alberto Figuereo 2019 · A	19	45	35→30	61→60	47	209/277/273	64	266	1	25	21%	7%	53	-1.5	205/263/266	61	283	2	14	26%	6%	45	-2.1	195/238/226	31	268	0	9	26%	4%	20	-0.7
✕Jesus Galindo 2010 · A	19	45→52	35→40	55→65	47	202/293/259	57	310	2	19	32%	9%	58	-1.2	212/291/266	54	287	1	32	24%	9%	58	-1.2	239/291/307	68	323	2	38	25%	5%	63	-0.5
✕Jodaneli Carvajal 2011 · A	19	46	36→30	55	44	215/271/282	67	278	3	20	23%	6%	52	-1.6	212/262/279	67	269	3	14	21%	5%	47	-1.9	205/250/265	59	254	2	14	19%	5%	35	-0.8
✕Dubal Baez 2012 · A	19	46	34→30	52→60	47	210/307/262	52	296	2	16	27%	8%	65	-0.7	218/295/268	50	299	1	19	25%	7%	60	-1.0	222/294/257	35	301	0	26	24%	7%	53	-0.4
✕Kevin Encarnacion 2012 · A	20	45	36→40	56→55	51	210/281/283	74	266	2	20	21%	8%	57	-1.2	217/294/314	97	274	7	13	22%	9%	72	-0.2	222/296/309	88	278	8	11	22%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Candido Pimentel 2010 · A	20	48	36→30	54→55	51	223/302/295	72	308	3	17	26%	10%	69	-0.4	217/280/273	56	305	2	15	27%	8%	53	-1.5	241/290/282	41	339	1	17	27%	6%	55	-0.5
✕Roberto Caro 2014 · A	20	46→38	35→40	56→60	48	210/285/283	73	287	1	16	25%	8%	59	-1.1	206/280/293	87	292	3	18	28%	8%	59	-1.1	212/285/292	79	328	2	26	33%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Leo Rivas 2017 · A	19	45→54	36→40	54→65	48	210/293/282	73	289	3	21	26%	8%	63	-0.8	199/289/276	77	291	4	13	30%	10%	60	-1.0	239/352/335	95	318	9	44	24%	14%	101	+1.2
✕Juan Mosquera 2007 · A	19	38	35→30	49→55	44	180/246/238	57	263	3	15	31%	8%	30	-3.1	201/290/246	45	281	1	14	26%	10%	53	-1.5	210/308/237	27	280	0	17	22%	11%	56	-0.4
✕Jilbert Rosario 2014 · A	19	46	36→30	52→55	46	216/291/285	69	292	3	15	25%	8%	63	-0.9	221/290/273	52	289	2	19	22%	8%	58	-1.2	225/295/260	35	292	0	25	21%	7%	54	-0.5
✕Andy Pineda 2016 · A	19	48	34→30	51→55	48	222/297/277	55	296	2	20	24%	8%	63	-0.9	219/274/285	66	291	4	18	24%	6%	55	-1.4	196/229/220	24	256	0	28	22%	3%	14	-1.1
✕Jose Astudillo 2023 · A	19	44	37→30	54→50	47	207/264/281	74	251	3	14	19%	6%	50	-1.8	245/295/318	73	283	3	14	14%	5%	72	-0.2	293/336/390	97	320	8	19	10%	4%	104	+0.6