Israfell Bautista

3B FCL Rays
Age 20 S/R 6'2" / 155 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP35OGV rank#2332ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKDSL Tampa Bay168.277/.352/.31103930—.196/.255/.222
202518ROKDSL Tampa Bay218.278/.412/.32404541—.176/.282/.202
202619ROKTB207.224/.381/.24203436—.170/.277/.188
2027PROJMLE20MLBTB317.200/.276/.26021055-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBTB54.209/.286/.2850263-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB22MLBTB124.214/.291/.3012469-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
Speed86
Z-Con%82
BB%70
Whiff%49
K%37
wRC+27
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%
CompsNasim Nuñez (age 20) · Candido Pimentel (age 20) · Chris Garia (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 109 proj PA
wRC+†55
AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .274 / .258
PA109
HR1
K%28
BB%9
ISO61
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.4 runs (Positional adjustment)+0POSREP: +2.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: -0.20-0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.10.10.00.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT45
scouting grade only
POWER20
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M———
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M———
2036Arb-1$3M———
2037Arb-2$0.4M———
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.9M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Tampa Bay — 168148 41310 15322 395 277352311662 34347 199 303 30 — — — — — —
202518 ROKDSL Tampa Bay — 218176 49420 38352 455 278412324736 45348 1617 345 41 — — — — — —
202619 ROKFCL Rays — 207161 36110 38503 346 224381242623 19313 2418 301 36 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Tampa Bay — 168153 30210 10402 395 196255222477 26250 246 213 30 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Tampa Bay — 218188 33310 26432 455 176282202485 27224 2012 229 41 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 207176 30110 23723 346 170277188465 17264 3511 221 36 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Tampa Bay — 168153 30210 10402 395 196255222477 26261 246 213 30 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Tampa Bay — 168148 41310 15322 395 277352311662 34347 199 303 30 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Tampa Bay — 218188 33310 26432 455 176282202485 27228 2012 229 41 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWDSL Tampa Bay — 218176 49420 38352 455 278412324736 45348 1617 345 41 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 207176 30110 23723 346 170277188465 17278 3511 221 36 — — — — — —
202619 ROK RAWFCL Rays — 207161 36110 38503 346 224381242623 19313 2418 301 36 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Tampa Bay — 168154 30210 10402 395 195255221475 26250 246 213 30 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Tampa Bay — 218188 33310 26432 455 176282202485 27224 2012 229 41 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 207179 30110 23723 346 168277184462 17264 3511 221 36 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Tampa Bay — 168154 30210 10402 395 195255221475 26250 246 213 30 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Tampa Bay — 218188 33310 26432 455 176282202485 27224 2012 229 41 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 207179 30110 23723 346 168277184462 17264 3511 221 36 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLETB 0% 317284 58922 27873 102 200276260537 61279 279 249 55 -17 +1 +0 +1 +7 -0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLETB 34% 156140 28411 13422 51 206283283566 77281 278 261 63 -7 +1 +0 +1 +3 -0.2
202922 MLB MLETB 48% 255228 48723 22683 71 211288300589 89283 279 270 69 -10 +1 +0 +1 +6 -0.2
203023 MLB MLETB 54% 349312 661025 30924 102 215292313605 98284 269 276 73 -11 +1 +0 +1 +8 -0.1
203124 MLB MLETB 55% 409366 801327 361064 112 218295323618 105285 269 281 76 -12 +1 +0 +1 +9 0.0
203225 MLB MLETB 56% 444398 881438 391154 112 220297330627 109286 269 284 79 -11 +1 +0 +2 +10 0.1
203326 MLB MLETB 56% 462414 911439 401195 112 220297331628 110286 269 285 79 -12 +1 +0 +2 +10 0.1
203427 MLB MLETB 55% 468419 931539 411215 112 219296328624 108285 269 283 78 -12 +1 +0 +2 +10 0.1
203528 MLB MLETB 55% 467419 911438 411224 102 217294323617 105284 269 280 76 -13 +1 -1 +2 +10 -0.1
203629 MLB MLETB 58% 458411 881428 401214 92 215291316607 101282 269 276 73 -15 +1 -1 +2 +10 -0.4
203730 MLB MLETB 60% 447401 841327 391204 82 211287308595 96280 279 271 70 -16 +1 -2 +2 +10 -0.6
202821 MLB CTXTB 34% 5448 10200 5151 20 209286285570 76285 289 263 63 -2 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.1
202922 MLB CTXTB 48% 124111 25412 11331 41 214291301592 88286 279 271 69 -5 +0 +0 +0 +3 -0.1
203023 MLB CTXTB 54% 189169 37613 16502 51 218294314608 96288 268 277 73 -6 +1 +0 +1 +4 -0.1
203124 MLB CTXTB 55% 227203 45714 20592 61 221297324621 103289 269 282 76 -6 +1 +0 +1 +5 0.0
203225 MLB CTXTB 56% 249222 50824 22643 61 223299330629 107290 269 286 79 -6 +1 +0 +1 +5 0.1
203326 MLB CTXTB 56% 260232 53825 23673 61 223299331630 108289 269 286 79 -7 +1 +0 +1 +6 0.1
203427 MLB CTXTB 55% 259231 52825 23673 61 221298328626 107289 269 284 78 -7 +1 +0 +1 +6 0.0
203528 MLB CTXTB 55% 256230 50814 22672 61 219296323619 104287 269 281 76 -7 +1 -0 +1 +6 -0.0
203629 MLB CTXTB 58% 266239 51814 23702 51 217293317610 100286 269 278 73 -8 +1 -1 +1 +6 -0.2
203730 MLB CTXTB 60% 269242 51814 23722 51 214289308598 95283 279 273 70 -10 +1 -1 +1 +6 -0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 21531927 424671235 18856421 519 220296322618 102291 269 280 69 -65 +7 -2 +8 +47 -0.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650582 12920411 571706 153 222298326624 105292 269 280 69 -20 +2 -1 +2 +14 -0.2
Career— MLE — 46174123 8701272766 409121147 21535 211290303593 92280 269 270 69 -124 +12 -4 +14 +87 -1.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650580 1231849 581707 305 212292303595 91281 269 270 69 -20 +2 -1 +2 +14 -0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Rays · 207 PAwOBA .301 → .221 (−80)K% 24.2% → 34.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.15%÷1.000×1.440——34.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.36%÷1.000×0.620—×0.99511.32%
HBP% /PA1.45%—×0.720—×0.9951.04%
Singles /BIP30.63%÷1.000×0.820×1.040×0.99525.99%
Doubles /BIP0.90%÷1.000×0.720×1.040×0.9950.67%
Triples /BIP0.90%÷1.000×0.720×1.040×0.9950.67%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .301 → .221; ISO .019 → .014; BABIP .313 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Tampa Bay · 218 PAwOBA .338 → .229 (−108)K% 16.1% → 19.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.06%÷1.005×1.220——19.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.43%÷1.011×0.700—×0.99512.01%
HBP% /PA0.92%—×0.700—×0.9950.64%
Singles /BIP30.50%÷1.054×0.680×1.014×0.99519.84%
Doubles /BIP2.84%÷0.944×0.600×1.014×0.9951.82%
Triples /BIP1.42%÷1.150×0.600×1.014×0.9950.75%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.952×0.470—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 111, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .338 → .229; ISO .045 → .028; BABIP .348 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Tampa Bay · 168 PAwOBA .299 → .213 (−86)K% 19.0% → 23.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.05%÷0.975×1.220——23.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.93%÷1.011×0.700—×1.0086.23%
HBP% /PA1.19%—×0.700—×1.0080.84%
Singles /BIP31.90%÷0.963×0.680×1.019×1.00823.11%
Doubles /BIP2.59%÷0.945×0.600×1.019×1.0081.68%
Triples /BIP0.86%÷0.900×0.600×1.019×1.0080.59%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.982×0.470—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 93, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .299 → .213; ISO .034 → .022; BABIP .347 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).