Nathan Arends — OGILVIE

Nathan Arends P DSL Athletics

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 10 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%22.2%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%6.8%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	13	0	14	63	9	10	0	0%	1.1	9.7%	19.8%	-10.1%	0.0%	7.71	4.79	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	13	0	14	63	9	10	0	0%	1.1	9.7%	19.8%	-10.1%	0.0%	7.71	4.79	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	13	0	14	63	9	10	0	0%	1.1	14.3%	15.9%	-1.6%	0.0%	7.71	3.96	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	15	0	17	73	19	13	1	0%	1.1	17.7%	22.3%	-4.6%	2.2%	5.94	5.64	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	15	0	17	73	19	13	1	0%	1.1	17.7%	22.3%	-4.6%	2.2%	5.94	5.64	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	15	0	17	73	19	13	1	0%	1.1	26.0%	17.8%	8.2%	1.4%	5.94	3.94	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	7	0	8	40	9	5	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	12.5%	10.0%	2.5%	9.00	4.16	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	7	0	8	40	9	5	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	12.5%	10.0%	2.5%	9.00	4.16	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	7	0	8	40	9	5	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	12.5%	10.0%	2.5%	9.00	4.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	OAK	10	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	15.4%	6.8%	3.0%	5.19	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	OAK	19	0	20	84	19	11	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.5%	9.3%	2.9%	4.96	4.87	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	OAK	10	0	10	42	10	6	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	13.5%	9.3%	2.9%	4.96	4.87	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	6	1	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.5%	9.3%	2.9%	4.96	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	122	20	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.5%	9.3%	2.9%	4.96	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		35	0	39	176	28	34	3	0%	1.1	15.9%	19.2%	-3.2%	1.5%	7.22	5.00	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		181	0	200	910	145	175	14	0%	1.1	15.9%	19.2%	-3.2%	1.5%	7.22	5.00	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nathan Arends (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	22.2%	15.4%	3.0%	—	4.87	22.7%	9.3%	20	-0.32	—	—	—
Samuel Carpio R 2024 · 4.20 FIP	21	SU	4.20	21.2%	15.3%	1.7%	.300	5.36	21.6%	-3.4%	112	+1.16	4.20	134	88
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	87
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	87
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	86
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	86
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	85
Isaac Gallegos R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	22.9%	17.8%	1.8%	.267	3.09	19.9%	10.5%	106	-1.31	2.89	125	85
Chase Ingram R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	20	SU	4.11	23.2%	15.8%	1.8%	.244	4.14	15.8%	3.0%	154	+0.03	4.04	174	85
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	85
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	85
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	85
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	84
Erbert Gonzalez R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	20	SU	5.52	23.8%	15.2%	4.5%	.295	4.56	20.9%	4.0%	60	-0.96	3.76	106	84
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	84
Drew Pestka R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	20	SU	4.26	19.0%	15.1%	1.6%	.298	4.55	18.1%	0.7%	83	+0.29	3.42	100	84
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	84
Daniel Procopio R 2017 · 4.33 FIP	21	SU	4.33	23.4%	18.8%	1.5%	.283	4.43	20.5%	6.5%	81	+0.10	4.16	103	84
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	84
Tim Naughton R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	21	SU	4.53	17.9%	15.6%	1.8%	.312	3.58	20.7%	6.4%	83	-0.95	2.93	305	83
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	83