Gregori Arias

SS DSL Miami

Age 20 S/R 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKDSL Miami	229	.227/.414/.343	2	23	40	—	.140/.295/.199
2026	19	ROKDSL Miami	133	.189/.348/.349	4	14	19	—	.115/.242/.204
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBMIA	243	.201/.285/.285	2	8	64	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBMIA	67	.201/.284/.290	1	2	70	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBMIA	157	.205/.289/.305	2	6	75	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2024 Rk

BB%91

Speed91

wOBA76

wRC+73

ISO65

Chase%50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsDalton Pompey (age 20) · Brainer Bonaci (age 20) · Lucius Fox (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 111 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .282 / .282

PA111

HR1

K%29

BB%9

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	229	172	39	8	3	2	47	69	8	23	7	227	414	343	757	116	366	30	21	356	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	133	106	20	3	1	4	21	38	5	14	1	189	348	349	698	160	250	29	16	323	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	229	186	26	4	2	1	33	83	8	23	7	140	295	199	494	59	229	36	14	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	133	113	13	2	1	2	14	46	5	14	1	115	242	204	446	88	151	35	11	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	229	186	26	4	2	1	33	83	8	23	7	140	295	199	494	59	245	36	14	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	229	172	39	8	3	2	47	69	8	23	7	227	414	343	757	116	366	30	21	356	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	133	113	13	2	1	2	14	46	5	14	1	115	242	204	446	88	169	35	11	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	133	106	20	3	1	4	21	38	5	14	1	189	348	349	698	160	250	29	16	323	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	229	186	26	4	2	1	33	83	8	23	7	140	295	199	494	59	229	36	14	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	133	113	13	2	1	2	14	46	5	14	1	115	242	204	446	88	151	35	11	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	229	186	26	4	2	1	33	83	8	23	7	140	295	199	494	59	229	36	14	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	133	113	13	2	1	2	14	46	5	14	1	115	242	204	446	88	151	35	11	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	243	216	43	7	2	2	21	70	4	8	1	201	285	285	569	83	284	29	9	263	64	-10	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	196	174	37	6	2	3	17	56	3	7	1	207	290	303	593	96	286	29	9	272	70	-7	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	323	286	61	10	3	5	29	91	5	12	2	212	295	319	613	107	287	28	9	280	75	-9	+2	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	409	364	78	13	3	7	36	113	6	15	3	216	298	331	630	116	289	28	9	286	80	-10	+2	+0	+4	+9	0.5
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	467	415	91	15	4	9	42	128	7	17	3	219	301	342	643	123	290	27	9	291	83	-9	+2	+0	+5	+10	0.8
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	500	444	98	16	4	11	45	135	7	18	3	222	303	350	653	128	290	27	9	295	86	-9	+2	+0	+5	+11	1.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	519	461	103	17	4	12	46	141	7	19	3	222	303	353	656	131	290	27	9	296	86	-8	+3	+0	+6	+11	1.1
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	527	468	104	17	4	12	47	144	7	19	3	221	303	350	653	129	290	27	9	295	86	-9	+3	+0	+6	+11	1.1
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	527	468	102	17	4	11	47	145	7	18	3	220	301	346	647	126	289	28	9	292	84	-10	+2	-1	+6	+11	0.9
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	520	462	101	17	4	11	46	144	7	18	3	217	298	340	638	123	288	28	9	289	81	-11	+2	-1	+6	+11	0.7
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	511	454	98	16	4	10	45	143	7	17	3	214	295	333	627	118	286	28	9	284	79	-13	+2	-2	+5	+11	0.4
2038	31	MLB MLE	MIA	60%	498	446	93	15	3	9	43	142	6	16	4	211	290	323	613	113	283	29	9	279	75	-15	+2	-3	+5	+11	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	67	60	13	2	1	1	6	19	1	2	0	201	284	290	575	90	277	28	9	265	70	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	157	140	28	4	1	2	14	44	2	6	1	205	289	305	594	100	278	28	9	272	75	-5	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	222	197	41	6	2	4	20	61	3	8	1	209	292	317	609	108	280	27	9	278	80	-5	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.3
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	259	230	49	8	2	5	23	71	4	9	2	212	295	327	622	115	281	27	9	283	83	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	280	249	53	8	2	6	25	76	4	10	2	215	296	335	631	120	281	27	9	286	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	292	260	56	9	2	6	26	79	4	11	2	215	297	338	635	123	281	27	9	287	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	291	259	55	9	2	6	26	79	4	10	2	214	296	335	631	121	280	27	9	286	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	289	257	55	9	2	6	26	79	4	10	2	212	294	331	625	118	280	27	9	284	84	-6	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.5
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	278	247	52	8	2	6	25	77	4	9	2	210	292	325	617	115	279	28	9	280	81	-6	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	292	260	54	8	2	6	26	82	4	10	2	208	288	318	607	111	277	28	9	276	79	-7	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2038	31	MLB CTX	MIA	60%	297	265	54	8	2	5	26	84	4	9	2	204	284	309	593	106	274	28	9	271	75	-9	+1	-2	+3	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2724	2424	510	79	20	53	243	751	38	94	18	210	292	325	618	115	280	28	9	280	78	-60	+12	-4	+29	+59	3.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	122	19	5	13	58	179	9	22	4	211	293	329	621	118	281	28	9	280	78	-14	+3	-1	+7	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5470	4839	1025	168	43	104	500	1543	84	217	40	212	297	329	625	117	286	28	9	283	78	-116	+23	-7	+55	+111	6.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	121	20	5	12	59	183	10	26	5	210	295	325	620	115	285	28	9	283	78	-15	+3	-1	+7	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Dylan Moorelast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,922 PA	2.9	1,922	63	118	206	310	383	+4	+8	6.6	6.6
/162	664	22	41	+1.3	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 7
#4Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.3	2,834	56	99	218	296	338	+30	+21	5.6	5.2
/162	664	13	23	+7.1	+4.9	1.3	pk7: 5
#5Pokey Reese'97-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,138 PA	4.7	3,138	44	144	238*	292*	339*	+19	+41	4.0	4.7
/162	664	9	30	+4.0	+8.7	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gregori Arias (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	200/282/282	82	284	1	4	29%	9%	64	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dalton Pompey 2013 · A	20	41→51	40→45	55	44	198/266/291	93	280	8	16	30%	8%	59	-1.7	243/305/349	106	326	7	24	25%	8%	86	+0.3	269/328/372	103	341	7	29	22%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	40→46	38→45	53→50	43	192/253/278	86	262	5	13	27%	7%	51	-2.3	219/294/329	110	303	9	13	28%	9%	78	-0.3	221/301/335	114	300	11	14	28%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Lucius Fox 2017 · A	20	42→50	38→40	55→60	43	198/264/277	79	283	5	20	30%	7%	55	-2.0	217/285/288	71	314	4	22	30%	7%	65	-1.2	194/260/277	83	283	8	24	32%	8%	50	-0.9
✕Jonatan Clase 2022 · A	20	43→48	40→50	59→65	47	205/283/296	91	289	7	26	30%	9%	66	-1.1	211/287/356	145	315	14	39	35%	9%	82	-0.0	210/288/361	151	303	15	47	33%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Jorge Barrosa 2021 · A	20	46→52	38→45	55	45	218/283/303	84	283	5	18	24%	6%	68	-1.0	233/297/347	114	294	9	19	23%	7%	83	+0.1	234/307/360	127	282	11	18	20%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Allan Castro 2023 · A	20	37→45	40→45	54→50	42	182/250/279	97	263	6	9	32%	7%	50	-2.3	207/280/322	115	282	9	13	28%	9%	71	-0.8	209/284/324	115	280	10	14	27%	9%	71	-0.6
✕Karexon Sanchez 2008 · A	20	40→47	38→45	50	46	194/262/268	74	258	6	14	26%	8%	52	-2.2	208/274/317	109	299	10	11	32%	7%	68	-1.0	220/298/324	104	305	10	11	29%	8%	76	-0.3
✕Frainyer Chavez 2019 · A	20	46→47	38→40	54→50	42	217/271/293	76	299	5	21	28%	6%	61	-1.5	207/269/264	57	287	2	13	26%	7%	53	-2.1	223/291/306	84	291	8	18	25%	8%	69	-0.7
✕Luis Liberato 2016 · A	20	37→47	37→50	53→50	42	177/241/251	73	261	4	13	32%	7%	40	-3.1	211/262/329	118	307	9	6	32%	7%	65	-1.2	221/286/368	148	299	15	9	30%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Carlos Jimenez 2024 · A	21	39→44	40→50	52→55	44	186/271/278	93	294	7	15	36%	9%	59	-1.7	222/298/356	134	324	13	17	33%	9%	86	+0.3	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
●Abraham Almonte 2009 · A	20	41→51	41→55	53→55	45	200/260/302	102	263	8	18	27%	7%	59	-1.7	233/279/330	97	309	6	20	25%	6%	72	-0.7	259/316/379	120	330	8	25	22%	7%	94	+0.8
✕Javier Herrera 2024 · A	19	38	39→40	51→55	45	184/262/268	84	272	6	10	32%	9%	53	-2.1	204/298/290	86	279	5	15	26%	11%	71	-0.8	210/307/297	87	289	5	18	26%	11%	74	-0.2
✕Jose Salas 2024 · A	21	40→43	39→45	54→55	40	194/259/277	83	275	7	21	31%	6%	53	-2.1	187/243/287	100	281	10	20	35%	5%	49	-2.4	173/229/282	108	262	12	23	37%	5%	41	-1.6
✕Samad Taylor 2019 · A	21	39→49	41→50	54→65	45	193/258/302	109	254	8	22	26%	7%	58	-1.7	195/272/314	119	297	11	25	35%	8%	67	-1.1	242/320/377	134	335	14	46	29%	9%	98	+0.7
✕Greg Veloz 2008 · A	20	37→47	39→40	54→55	40	184/240/271	88	266	6	18	32%	6%	44	-2.8	215/260/295	80	302	5	16	29%	5%	56	-1.9	223/266/297	74	307	4	17	27%	5%	55	-1.7
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2016 · A	20	42→40	38→50	54→55	44	200/273/281	81	280	6	20	29%	7%	59	-1.6	210/281/330	120	279	11	18	27%	7%	74	-0.6	204/280/342	138	273	13	19	29%	8%	74	-0.5
✕Geraldo Quintero 2022 · A	20	38→47	35→40	52→60	47	181/251/244	63	237	2	17	23%	8%	42	-2.9	216/281/305	89	285	5	23	24%	7%	68	-1.0	218/285/304	87	285	5	28	24%	7%	66	-0.9
✕Juan Villavicencio 2024 · A	19	36→44	38→50	51→55	47	174/251/254	80	234	5	13	26%	8%	45	-2.7	189/262/280	91	279	7	14	32%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Alberto Rodriguez 2021 · A	20	42→52	38→50	52→50	44	203/259/282	79	268	5	14	25%	7%	53	-2.1	228/290/353	125	327	10	8	31%	7%	82	-0.0	228/292/360	132	326	11	7	31%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Arismendy Alcántara 2011 · A	19	41→51	37→55	57→55	47	196/252/275	79	246	4	14	22%	7%	49	-2.4	237/271/333	96	314	7	15	25%	4%	69	-0.9	241/284/391	150	317	14	25	28%	5%	86	+0.3

Gregori Arias

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps