Fabian Alcantara

Fabian AlcantaraIF ACL Padres

Age 21 R/R 6'0" / 170 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 98 proj PA

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.174 / .244 / .265

PA98

HR1

K%35

BB%7

ISO91

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER48

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	18	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	171	137	25	7	0	4	29	57	4	12	1	182	341	321	662	139	273	33	17	311	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	111	91	25	5	0	7	17	31	1	6	2	275	394	560	955	286	327	28	15	409	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	ACL Padres	—	115	104	21	4	0	3	10	48	1	4	1	202	278	327	605	125	340	42	9	276	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	171	147	15	4	0	2	19	71	4	12	1	102	224	170	394	68	163	42	11	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	111	97	13	2	0	3	11	39	1	6	2	134	229	247	477	113	174	35	10	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	115	108	11	2	0	2	6	69	1	4	1	102	157	176	332	74	250	60	5	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	171	147	15	4	0	2	19	71	4	12	1	102	224	170	394	68	173	42	11	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	—	171	137	25	7	0	4	29	57	4	12	1	182	341	321	662	139	273	33	17	311	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	111	97	13	2	0	3	11	39	1	6	2	134	229	247	477	113	175	35	10	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	111	91	25	5	0	7	17	31	1	6	2	275	394	560	955	286	327	28	15	409	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	115	108	11	2	0	2	6	69	1	4	1	102	157	176	332	74	243	60	5	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	—	115	104	21	4	0	3	10	48	1	4	1	202	278	327	605	125	340	42	9	276	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	171	146	15	4	0	2	19	71	4	12	1	103	224	171	395	68	163	42	11	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	111	98	13	2	0	3	11	39	1	6	2	133	229	245	474	112	174	35	10	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	115	107	11	2	0	2	6	69	1	4	1	103	157	178	334	75	250	60	5	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	171	146	15	4	0	2	19	71	4	12	1	103	224	171	395	68	163	42	11	187	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	111	98	13	2	0	3	11	39	1	6	2	133	229	245	474	112	174	35	10	228	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	115	107	11	2	0	2	6	69	1	4	1	103	157	178	334	75	250	60	5	147	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SD	0%	225	204	35	6	1	3	17	78	2	4	1	176	246	267	513	91	262	35	8	235	45	-15	+0	+0	+0	+5	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	34%	179	161	29	5	1	3	14	61	2	4	1	182	252	283	535	101	265	34	8	244	51	-10	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.6
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	34%	62	56	10	2	0	1	5	21	1	1	0	179	250	279	529	100	260	34	8	242	51	-4	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	62	56	10	2	0	1	5	21	1	1	0	179	258	268	526	89	265	34	8	242	28	-4	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	104	21	0	10	52	220	10	10	0	177	255	264	519	87	263	34	8	242	28	-38	+2	+0	+0	+14	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	674	603	83	16	1	11	57	274	9	28	5	138	223	222	445	85	224	41	8	209	28	-17	+1	+0	+0	+6	-1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	80	15	1	11	55	264	9	27	5	137	223	223	447	86	222	41	8	209	28	-39	+2	+0	+0	+14	-2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Fabian Alcantara (OGILVIE)	21	20→25	43→48	50→55	52	174/244/265	90	262	1	2	35%	7%	45	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→32	41→40	49→50	45	190/258/293	104	259	8	12	29%	8%	57	-1.8	179/258/267	88	262	6	9	31%	9%	51	-2.3	166/253/247	81	240	5	8	30%	10%	42	-1.7
✕George Feliz 2023 · A	20	34	39→45	54→45	38	169/229/251	81	271	6	13	38%	7%	36	-3.4	173/235/269	96	305	10	11	44%	6%	42	-2.9	160/223/268	108	267	13	9	43%	6%	36	-1.2
✕Carlos Dominguez 2021 · A	21	39→26	40→45	50	39	190/272/284	94	273	6	12	31%	5%	61	-1.5	170/238/291	121	318	15	12	49%	5%	49	-2.4	137/207/253	116	269	16	13	53%	5%	27	-1.7
✕Lizandro Espinoza 2024 · A	21	31→24	39→45	47→60	38	161/223/240	80	247	7	10	36%	6%	31	-3.7	167/231/270	103	253	11	20	37%	7%	42	-2.9	159/229/271	111	233	12	30	36%	7%	39	-1.8
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	36→30	38→45	50	43	177/250/254	77	257	5	13	32%	7%	45	-2.7	207/272/309	102	322	8	15	36%	7%	65	-1.2	191/253/307	116	283	12	16	35%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Bryan Gonzalez 2022 · A	20	36	42→45	53→50	37	178/241/275	98	296	10	10	41%	7%	46	-2.6	186/240/289	103	327	11	12	44%	6%	49	-2.4	180/230/300	120	302	15	14	44%	5%	44	-1.5
✕Ryan Spikes 2024 · A	21	36→30	42→45	53→55	35	175/239/277	101	299	10	17	42%	7%	45	-2.7	186/234/300	114	292	13	18	39%	5%	49	-2.4	181/223/300	119	274	14	22	38%	4%	42	-1.5
✕Axel Sanchez 2024 · A	21	37	44→45	52→50	38	185/251/304	119	276	11	15	36%	6%	57	-1.8	181/250/281	100	273	10	14	35%	7%	51	-2.2	166/241/259	93	242	11	16	34%	7%	42	-1.3
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	36	39→40	51→50	40	181/244/269	88	257	7	13	31%	6%	46	-2.6	196/262/273	77	311	7	10	36%	7%	53	-2.1	190/263/263	73	291	8	10	35%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Michael Bernal 2012 · A	20	37	42→45	48→50	45	185/270/290	106	268	10	13	33%	9%	61	-1.5	192/261/303	111	339	11	10	43%	7%	60	-1.6	136/185/255	118	292	17	10	57%	4%	17	-0.8
✕Juan Carlos Negret 2019 · A	20	35→27	43→50	48→50	38	180/247/287	107	259	10	12	34%	6%	52	-2.2	167/239/285	118	278	14	6	43%	7%	49	-2.4	132/210/266	134	193	19	2	42%	7%	33	-1.9
✕Osiris Johnson 2022 · A	21	35	44→40	51→50	37	181/235/289	108	264	12	7	36%	6%	47	-2.6	192/240/283	91	267	10	11	31%	5%	47	-2.5	183/230/260	77	248	9	15	29%	5%	36	-1.5
✕Tyler Whitaker 2024 · A	21	37→40	41→40	50→55	36	173/249/262	89	309	9	13	44%	8%	47	-2.6	173/251/262	89	306	8	15	42%	8%	47	-2.5	160/242/248	88	276	8	18	41%	8%	39	-1.7
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A	21	39→33	43→45	51→50	42	193/261/303	109	286	10	12	34%	8%	60	-1.6	207/272/319	112	304	11	12	33%	7%	68	-1.0	183/257/295	112	268	12	11	34%	8%	56	-1.1
✕Pedro Gonzalez 2019 · A	21	39→30	43→50	49→50	33	190/237/307	116	310	9	10	40%	5%	51	-2.2	180/233/302	122	298	14	9	42%	6%	49	-2.4	149/207/261	112	252	14	9	45%	6%	28	-2.6
✕Gabriel Rosa 2014 · A	21	35	40	51→50	38	178/237/265	88	260	9	12	34%	6%	42	-2.9	186/250/277	91	276	8	12	33%	6%	50	-2.3	137/205/222	84	200	8	18	34%	6%	19	-1.3
✕Kingston Liniak 2022 · A	22	33→26	42→45	52→50	38	170/231/275	105	255	10	13	36%	6%	42	-2.9	190/258/294	104	276	9	10	32%	8%	57	-1.8	146/240/225	79	200	7	3	29%	11%	33	-0.8
✕Maikol Escotto 2024 · A	22	35	41→45	47→50	35	179/230/275	96	276	10	12	38%	5%	42	-2.9	190/232/297	107	275	12	16	34%	4%	47	-2.5	179/219/283	104	251	14	22	34%	4%	37	-1.4
✕Chris Roller 2018 · A	21	37	37→45	53→55	45	177/253/254	77	242	4	12	27%	8%	46	-2.6	204/272/316	112	294	8	11	31%	7%	67	-1.1	189/255/293	104	275	7	15	32%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Walking Cabrera 2022 · A	21	40→37	45	53→45	44	204/264/328	124	266	13	13	28%	7%	67	-1.1	198/252/302	104	295	10	8	34%	6%	56	-1.9	189/242/289	101	282	10	6	35%	6%	48	-1.5