Bryan Gonzalez
OF Quad Cities River Bandits| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A+BOS | 448 | .252/.318/.404 | 11 | 15 | 38 | — | .180/.224/.291 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+BOS | 362 | .272/.339/.508 | 20 | 15 | 63 | — | .198/.247/.370 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+KC | 314 | .235/.289/.356 | 3 | 14 | 34 | — | .183/.225/.268 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBKC | 364 | .207/.252/.320 | 7 | 8 | 59 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 26 | MLBKC | 29 | .206/.253/.318 | 1 | 1 | 61 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox 2 | — | 293 | 255 | 64 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 77 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 251 | 344 | 435 | 779 | 184 | 322 | 26 | 10 | 345 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 161 | 139 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 54 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 230 | 327 | 388 | 716 | 158 | 329 | 34 | 12 | 319 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 126 | 111 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 234 | 325 | 306 | 632 | 72 | 333 | 28 | 12 | 294 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 34 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 71 | 212 | 71 | 284 | 118 | 35 | 12 | 157 | -47 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 448 | 408 | 103 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 35 | 149 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 252 | 318 | 404 | 722 | 152 | 369 | 33 | 8 | 322 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 362 | 327 | 89 | 13 | 2 | 20 | 29 | 115 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 272 | 339 | 508 | 847 | 235 | 356 | 32 | 8 | 369 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 314 | 289 | 68 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 94 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 235 | 289 | 356 | 646 | 121 | 337 | 30 | 6 | 287 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox 2 | — | 293 | 264 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 94 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 144 | 223 | 231 | 454 | 87 | 197 | 32 | 7 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 161 | 146 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 78 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 144 | 214 | 240 | 454 | 96 | 255 | 48 | 7 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 126 | 115 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 51 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 183 | 254 | 243 | 497 | 61 | 312 | 40 | 9 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 34 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 121 | 33 | 155 | 93 | 50 | 6 | 99 | -47 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 448 | 423 | 76 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 199 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 180 | 224 | 291 | 514 | 111 | 308 | 44 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 362 | 338 | 67 | 9 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 157 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 198 | 247 | 370 | 617 | 172 | 302 | 43 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 314 | 295 | 54 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 119 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 183 | 225 | 268 | 493 | 85 | 293 | 38 | 4 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox 2 | — | 293 | 264 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 94 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 144 | 223 | 231 | 454 | 87 | 202 | 32 | 7 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Red Sox 2 | — | 293 | 255 | 64 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 77 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 251 | 344 | 435 | 779 | 184 | 322 | 26 | 10 | 345 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 161 | 146 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 78 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 144 | 214 | 240 | 454 | 96 | 269 | 48 | 7 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Red Sox | — | 161 | 139 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 54 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 230 | 327 | 388 | 716 | 158 | 329 | 34 | 12 | 319 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 160 | 145 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 68 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 152 | 226 | 200 | 426 | 48 | 273 | 42 | 8 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 160 | 139 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 47 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 201 | 302 | 259 | 561 | 58 | 293 | 29 | 12 | 265 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 448 | 423 | 76 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 199 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 180 | 224 | 291 | 514 | 111 | 310 | 44 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 448 | 408 | 103 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 35 | 149 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 252 | 318 | 404 | 722 | 152 | 369 | 33 | 8 | 322 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 362 | 338 | 67 | 9 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 157 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 198 | 247 | 370 | 617 | 172 | 310 | 43 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 362 | 327 | 89 | 13 | 2 | 20 | 29 | 115 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 272 | 339 | 508 | 847 | 235 | 356 | 32 | 8 | 369 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 314 | 295 | 54 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 119 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 183 | 225 | 268 | 493 | 85 | 297 | 38 | 4 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ RAW | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 314 | 289 | 68 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 94 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 235 | 289 | 356 | 646 | 121 | 337 | 30 | 6 | 287 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox 2 | — | 293 | 264 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 94 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 144 | 223 | 231 | 454 | 87 | 197 | 32 | 7 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 161 | 147 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 78 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 143 | 214 | 238 | 452 | 95 | 255 | 48 | 7 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 160 | 145 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 68 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 152 | 226 | 200 | 426 | 48 | 265 | 42 | 8 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 448 | 421 | 76 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 199 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 181 | 224 | 292 | 516 | 112 | 308 | 44 | 4 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 362 | 337 | 67 | 9 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 157 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 199 | 247 | 371 | 618 | 172 | 302 | 43 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 314 | 295 | 54 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 119 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 183 | 225 | 268 | 493 | 85 | 293 | 38 | 4 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 362 | 337 | 67 | 9 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 157 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 199 | 247 | 371 | 618 | 172 | 302 | 43 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ MLE | Quad Cities River Bandits | — | 314 | 295 | 54 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 119 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 183 | 225 | 268 | 493 | 85 | 293 | 38 | 4 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | KC | 0% | 364 | 341 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 107 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 207 | 252 | 320 | 572 | 113 | 278 | 29 | 5 | 255 | 59 | -18 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | KC | 30% | 95 | 89 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 255 | 325 | 580 | 116 | 278 | 29 | 5 | 259 | 61 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | KC | 30% | 29 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 253 | 318 | 572 | 112 | 277 | 28 | 3 | 255 | 61 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 29 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 241 | 357 | 599 | 143 | 263 | 28 | 3 | 255 | 39 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 628 | 134 | 22 | 0 | 22 | 22 | 179 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 213 | 240 | 354 | 594 | 140 | 262 | 28 | 3 | 255 | 39 | -30 | +4 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1919 | 1781 | 313 | 53 | 14 | 38 | 107 | 768 | 20 | 69 | 32 | 176 | 231 | 285 | 516 | 109 | 279 | 40 | 6 | 227 | 39 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 603 | 106 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 36 | 260 | 7 | 23 | 11 | 176 | 231 | 287 | 518 | 111 | 279 | 40 | 6 | 227 | 39 | -31 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 314 PAwOBA .279 → .218 (−61)K% 29.9% → 37.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.94% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 37.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.05% | ÷0.981 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 4.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.05% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | ×1.033 | ×0.988 | 20.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷1.055 | ×0.810 | ×1.033 | ×0.988 | 7.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.05% | ÷1.012 | ×0.850 | ×1.033 | ×0.988 | 1.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.983 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.24% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 111, 3B 102, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .279 → .218; ISO .121 → .090; BABIP .337 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Greenville Drive · 362 PAwOBA .360 → .262 (−98)K% 31.8% → 43.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.77% | ÷0.960 | ×1.310 | — | — | 43.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.73% | ÷0.924 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 5.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.47% | ÷1.013 | ×0.870 | ×1.032 | ×0.998 | 22.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.13% | ÷1.037 | ×0.780 | ×1.032 | ×0.998 | 4.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷0.927 | ×0.850 | ×1.032 | ×0.998 | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.43% | ÷1.043 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 7.95% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 85, K 92, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .360 → .262; ISO .235 → .171; BABIP .356 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greenville Drive · 448 PAwOBA .313 → .225 (−88)K% 33.3% → 44.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.26% | ÷0.981 | ×1.310 | — | — | 44.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.59% | ÷1.028 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 4.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.03% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | ×1.023 | ×1.012 | 23.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.79% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | ×1.023 | ×1.012 | 4.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.023 | ×1.012 | 2.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.25% | ÷0.931 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 4.06% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 111, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .313 → .225; ISO .152 → .115; BABIP .369 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASalem Red Sox · 126 PAwOBA .287 → .221 (−66)K% 27.8% → 40.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷0.930 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.90% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | ×1.037 | ×1.015 | 24.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.58% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | ×1.037 | ×1.015 | 6.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | ×1.037 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.32% | ÷0.873 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.22% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 121, K 86, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .287 → .221; ISO .072 → .056; BABIP .333 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Red Sox · 34 PAwOBA .159 → .099 (−59)K% 35.3% → 50.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 50.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.080 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 6.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.010 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 9.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.229 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.908 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.943 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 102, 2B 146, 3B 82, K 100, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .159 → .099; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .118 → .093. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Red Sox · 161 PAwOBA .315 → .204 (−111)K% 33.5% → 48.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.54% | ÷0.999 | ×1.440 | — | — | 48.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.80% | ÷0.997 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.71% | ÷0.980 | ×0.820 | ×0.978 | ×0.995 | 20.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.029 | ×0.720 | ×0.978 | ×0.995 | 4.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.18% | ÷0.951 | ×0.720 | ×0.978 | ×0.995 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.951 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 4.80% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 90, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .315 → .204; ISO .158 → .102; BABIP .329 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 DSLDSL Red Sox 2 · 293 PAwOBA .338 → .205 (−133)K% 26.3% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.28% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.05% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.91% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 14.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 3.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 1.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 2.39% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .338 → .205; ISO .184 → .093; BABIP .322 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).