Colin Davis
OF Tacoma Rainiers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | A+SEA | 159 | .131/.242/.219 | 3 | 2 | -7 | — | .099/.185/.155 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA/A+SEA | 153 | .198/.309/.328 | 4 | 6 | 33 | — | .162/.250/.258 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAASEA | 212 | .253/.333/.478 | 11 | 4 | 70 | — | .208/.276/.375 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 28 | MLBSEA | 13 | .197/.266/.333 | 0 | 0 | 70 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 29 | MLBSEA | 43 | .197/.266/.330 | 1 | 1 | 70 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 26 / POW 46
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 130 | 108 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 315 | 417 | 444 | 862 | 130 | 348 | 13 | 14 | 380 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 31 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 241 | 290 | 414 | 704 | 172 | 300 | 26 | 6 | 312 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 245 | 217 | 49 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 58 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 226 | 309 | 350 | 659 | 124 | 287 | 24 | 9 | 298 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 79 | 70 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 295 | 329 | 623 | 114 | 292 | 28 | 8 | 282 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 288 | 258 | 65 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 60 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 252 | 325 | 446 | 771 | 194 | 289 | 21 | 8 | 340 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 159 | 137 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 131 | 242 | 219 | 461 | 88 | 163 | 27 | 8 | 221 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 90 | 76 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 224 | 337 | 368 | 705 | 145 | 259 | 21 | 12 | 320 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 63 | 55 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 164 | 270 | 273 | 543 | 109 | 235 | 32 | 11 | 255 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 212 | 186 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 62 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 253 | 333 | 478 | 812 | 226 | 316 | 29 | 8 | 354 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 130 | 114 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 272 | 346 | 386 | 732 | 114 | 304 | 18 | 9 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 31 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 167 | 194 | 300 | 494 | 133 | 253 | 35 | 3 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 245 | 225 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 81 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 164 | 226 | 253 | 480 | 89 | 229 | 33 | 6 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 79 | 72 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 153 | 218 | 236 | 454 | 83 | 234 | 35 | 5 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 288 | 266 | 54 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 79 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 203 | 259 | 350 | 608 | 147 | 249 | 27 | 6 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 159 | 142 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 58 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 99 | 185 | 155 | 340 | 56 | 138 | 36 | 5 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 90 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 190 | 281 | 291 | 572 | 101 | 224 | 24 | 9 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 63 | 57 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 123 | 206 | 211 | 417 | 88 | 202 | 44 | 8 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 212 | 192 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 74 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 276 | 375 | 651 | 167 | 276 | 35 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 130 | 114 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 272 | 346 | 386 | 732 | 114 | 315 | 18 | 9 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | Modesto Nuts | — | 130 | 108 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 315 | 417 | 444 | 862 | 130 | 348 | 13 | 14 | 380 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 254 | 42 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 92 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 165 | 226 | 260 | 486 | 94 | 237 | 33 | 6 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 276 | 246 | 56 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 66 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 228 | 307 | 358 | 664 | 130 | 288 | 24 | 9 | 299 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 367 | 337 | 66 | 17 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 108 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 196 | 255 | 332 | 588 | 136 | 256 | 29 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 367 | 328 | 80 | 23 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 82 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 244 | 319 | 421 | 739 | 177 | 290 | 22 | 8 | 327 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 159 | 142 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 58 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 99 | 185 | 155 | 340 | 56 | 145 | 36 | 5 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ RAW | Everett AquaSox | — | 159 | 137 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 131 | 242 | 219 | 461 | 88 | 163 | 27 | 8 | 221 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 153 | 137 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 50 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 153 | 237 | 226 | 463 | 73 | 224 | 33 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 153 | 131 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 39 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 198 | 309 | 328 | 637 | 130 | 250 | 25 | 12 | 293 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 212 | 192 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 74 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 276 | 375 | 651 | 167 | 288 | 35 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 212 | 186 | 47 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 62 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 253 | 333 | 478 | 812 | 226 | 316 | 29 | 8 | 354 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 130 | 116 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 267 | 346 | 379 | 726 | 112 | 304 | 18 | 9 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 254 | 42 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 92 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 165 | 226 | 260 | 486 | 94 | 232 | 33 | 6 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 367 | 337 | 66 | 17 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 108 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 196 | 255 | 332 | 588 | 136 | 246 | 29 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 159 | 143 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 58 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 98 | 185 | 154 | 339 | 56 | 138 | 36 | 5 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 153 | 137 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 50 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 153 | 237 | 226 | 463 | 73 | 215 | 33 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 212 | 192 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 74 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 276 | 375 | 651 | 167 | 276 | 35 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 159 | 143 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 58 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 98 | 185 | 154 | 339 | 56 | 138 | 36 | 5 | 158 | -7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 153 | 137 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 50 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 153 | 237 | 226 | 463 | 73 | 215 | 33 | 8 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | — | 212 | 192 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 74 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 276 | 375 | 651 | 167 | 276 | 35 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | SEA | 10% | 240 | 218 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 74 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 199 | 268 | 338 | 606 | 139 | 262 | 31 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -8 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | SEA | 10% | 13 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 266 | 333 | 599 | 136 | 259 | 31 | 8 | 269 | 70 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | SEA | 27% | 158 | 143 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 48 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 199 | 268 | 335 | 603 | 136 | 262 | 30 | 7 | 271 | 70 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | SEA | 27% | 43 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 197 | 266 | 330 | 596 | 133 | 259 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 70 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 43 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 256 | 282 | 538 | 103 | 240 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 52 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 106 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 45 | 197 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 180 | 255 | 281 | 537 | 102 | 241 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 52 | -23 | +3 | -6 | -4 | +14 | -1.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1581 | 1434 | 266 | 55 | 4 | 35 | 102 | 492 | 30 | 47 | 10 | 185 | 254 | 303 | 557 | 117 | 251 | 31 | 6 | 245 | 52 | -10 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +6 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 110 | 23 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 202 | 12 | 19 | 4 | 186 | 255 | 303 | 558 | 117 | 253 | 31 | 6 | 245 | 52 | -23 | +1 | -3 | -4 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 212 PAwOBA .346 → .272 (−74)K% 29.2% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.25% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.36% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 2.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.985 | ×1.003 | 20.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | ×1.003 | 4.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.985 | ×1.003 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 6.23% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .346 → .272; ISO .226 → .161; BABIP .316 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 90 PAwOBA .312 → .245 (−67)K% 21.1% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.11% | ÷1.035 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.22% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×0.962 | ×1.018 | 18.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.51% | ÷0.985 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×1.018 | 2.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×0.962 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.204 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.11% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 103, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .312 → .245; ISO .145 → .094; BABIP .259 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Everett AquaSox · 63 PAwOBA .249 → .175 (−74)K% 31.7% → 44.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.75% | ÷0.957 | ×1.350 | — | — | 44.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.999 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 7.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.968 | 1.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.001 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.968 | 12.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.968 | 7.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.036 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.968 | 2.21% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 100, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .249 → .175; ISO .109 → .074; BABIP .235 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Everett AquaSox · 159 PAwOBA .217 → .158 (−60)K% 27.0% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.04% | ÷1.003 | ×1.350 | — | — | 36.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.18% | ÷1.082 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 5.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.40% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 3.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.77% | ÷0.992 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×0.978 | 11.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.19% | ÷1.040 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×0.978 | 2.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.904 | ×0.820 | ×0.982 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.19% | ÷1.175 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 2.20% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 81, K 101, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .217 → .158; ISO .088 → .058; BABIP .163 → .138. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AModesto Nuts · 288 PAwOBA .333 → .265 (−68)K% 20.8% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.83% | ÷1.026 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.013 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 5.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.39% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | ×0.980 | 16.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.050 | ×0.830 | ×0.991 | ×0.980 | 6.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.991 | ×0.980 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.05% | ÷0.883 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 4.49% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .333 → .265; ISO .194 → .156; BABIP .289 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Everett AquaSox · 79 PAwOBA .279 → .208 (−71)K% 27.8% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.85% | ÷1.046 | ×1.350 | — | — | 35.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.59% | ÷0.953 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 5.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.53% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 2.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷1.018 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 15.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.42% | ÷1.040 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 7.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.012 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 1.69% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 104, 2B 108, 3B 105, K 109, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .279 → .208; ISO .114 → .082; BABIP .292 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AModesto Nuts · 245 PAwOBA .293 → .214 (−78)K% 23.7% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.67% | ÷0.971 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.39% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 6.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.22% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.50% | ÷1.047 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | ×0.990 | 16.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.18% | ÷1.060 | ×0.830 | ×0.953 | ×0.990 | 6.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷1.060 | ×0.910 | ×0.953 | ×0.990 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.52% | ÷0.855 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 2.33% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 109, 2B 112, 3B 112, K 94, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .293 → .214; ISO .124 → .095; BABIP .287 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Everett AquaSox · 31 PAwOBA .303 → .218 (−85)K% 25.8% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.81% | ÷1.007 | ×1.350 | — | — | 34.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.45% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷1.021 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 16.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.048 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 7.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.237 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 3.19% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 147, 1B 104, 2B 110, 3B 80, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .303 → .218; ISO .172 → .112; BABIP .300 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).