Colin Davis — OGILVIE

Colin DavisOF Tacoma Rainiers

Age 27 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs AAA HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION212 act + 141 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .249 / .304

PA141

HR4

K%35

BB%6

BABIP249

ISO125

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 21 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT21

scouting grade only

POWER43

scouting grade only

EYE43

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	Modesto Nuts	—	130	114	31	7	0	2	12	22	1	7	1	272	346	386	732	114	312	17	9	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A	Modesto Nuts	—	130	108	34	8	0	2	18	17	1	7	1	315	417	444	862	130	348	13	14	380	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A	2 teams	—	276	254	40	9	1	5	17	94	3	8	3	157	219	260	479	102	223	34	6	214	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A	2 teams	—	276	246	56	15	1	5	25	66	3	8	3	228	307	358	664	130	288	24	9	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A	2 teams	—	367	337	69	16	1	12	21	105	6	14	2	205	264	365	629	160	256	29	6	271	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A	2 teams	—	367	328	80	23	1	11	30	82	6	14	2	244	319	421	739	177	290	22	8	327	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	159	143	14	2	0	2	7	60	7	2	1	98	178	154	332	56	146	38	4	144	-32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	159	137	18	3	0	3	13	43	7	2	1	131	242	219	461	88	163	27	8	221	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	153	137	20	4	0	2	12	53	3	6	0	146	230	219	449	73	220	35	8	203	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AAA	2 teams	—	153	131	26	5	0	4	18	39	3	6	0	198	309	328	637	130	250	25	12	293	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	AAA	SEA	—	212	192	37	5	1	8	13	80	5	4	1	193	262	354	616	161	276	38	6	265	61	-9	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.4
YTD	27	AAA	SEA	—	212	186	47	7	1	11	18	62	5	4	1	253	333	478	812	226	316	29	8	354	129	+7	+0	+0	-1	+6	1.2
ROS	27	AAA	SEA	10%	141	128	23	4	0	4	9	49	3	3	1	179	249	304	553	125	258	35	6	255	53	-7	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.4
ROS	27	MLB	SEA	10%	14	13	2	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	154	214	154	368		256	36	7	237	40	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
FULL	27	AAA	SEA	—	226	205	39	5	1	8	14	85	5	4	1	190	259	341	600	151	274	38	6	263	60	-10	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.5
TOT	27	AAA	SEA	—	353	320	60	9	1	12	22	129	8	7	2	187	257	334	591	147	265	37	6	261	58	-17	+1	+0	-2	+10	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	SEA	31%	260	235	45	8	1	7	18	87	5	5	1	191	264	323	587	132	261	33	7	260	57	-13	+1	-1	-2	+7	-0.7
2028	29	MLB	SEA	40%	300	270	52	9	1	8	21	99	6	5	1	193	266	322	588	130	263	33	7	263	60	-14	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.8
2027	28	MLB	SEA	31%	81	74	13	2	0	2	5	27	2	2	0	176	247	284	531	108	259	33	6	243	44	-5	+0	-0	-0	+2	-0.3
2028	29	MLB	SEA	40%	119	108	20	4	0	3	8	39	2	2	0	185	254	306	560	120	261	33	7	247	47	-7	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	214	195	35	6	0	5	14	71	4	4	0	179	249	287	536	108	250	33	7	245	46	-13	+1	-1	-1	+6	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	106	18	0	15	43	216	12	12	0	179	249	285	534	106	250	33	7	245	46	-40	+2	-2	-4	+18	-2.6
Career	—			—	1786	1618	294	59	4	42	117	569	34	50	10	182	252	301	552	119	247	32	7	245	46	-110	+6	-2	-11	+51	-6.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	106	21	1	15	43	207	12	18	4	180	250	295	545	115	245	32	7	245	46	-40	+2	-1	-4	+18	-2.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	Modesto Nuts	—	130	108	34	8	0	2	18	17	1	7	1	315	417	444	862	130	348	13	14	380	149	+7	+1	—	—	+4	1.2
2022	23	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	31	29	7	2	0	1	2	8	0	3	0	241	290	414	704	172	300	26	6	312	97	-0	+1	—	—	+1	0.1
2022	23	A	Modesto Nuts	—	245	217	49	13	1	4	23	58	3	5	3	226	309	350	659	124	287	24	9	298	86	-4	-0	—	—	+7	0.3
2023	24	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	79	70	15	5	0	1	6	22	2	2	0	214	295	329	623	114	292	28	8	282	74	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2023	24	A	Modesto Nuts	—	288	258	65	18	1	10	24	60	4	12	2	252	325	446	771	194	289	21	8	340	118	+6	+2	—	—	+8	1.6
2024	25	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	159	137	18	3	0	3	13	43	7	2	1	131	242	219	461	88	163	27	8	221	27	-13	+0	—	—	+5	-0.9
2025	26	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	90	76	17	2	0	3	11	19	2	5	0	224	337	368	705	145	259	21	12	320	103	+0	+1	—	—	+3	0.4
2025	26	A+	Everett AquaSox	—	63	55	9	3	0	1	7	20	1	1	0	164	270	273	543	109	235	32	11	255	53	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	217	6	4	190	259	317	-1	+0	-0.5	-0.3
	/162	664	17	12	190	259	317	-4.0	+0.0	-1.6	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colin Davis (OGILVIE)	27	21	43	50	43	187/257/334	147	265	12	7	37%	6%	58	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕McCarthy Tatum 2023 · AA	27	36→24	45→55	49→50	35	185/239/305	121	279	13	9	38%	5%	46	-2.0	212/273/327	115	298	10	10	31%	5%	66	-0.6	207/279/300	93	287	6	9	28%	4%	59	-0.3
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA	27	35	44→45	47→45	44	179/260/291	112	277	12	9	38%	10%	52	-1.6	180/266/322	142	275	19	6	39%	10%	63	-0.8	145/239/282	137	205	21	3	40%	10%	39	-0.8
✕Jake Means 2023 · AA	27	35→31	47→45	51→45	43	182/258/317	135	266	15	9	36%	8%	58	-1.2	187/257/316	129	263	16	10	34%	8%	57	-1.2	134/210/250	116	164	19	8	33%	8%	18	-1.7
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA	26	35→37	45→50	48→50	39	184/243/301	118	247	14	10	31%	6%	47	-1.9	204/251/338	134	276	16	10	31%	5%	59	-1.1	203/253/332	129	265	15	10	29%	5%	56	-0.7
✕Jason Martinson 2016 · AAA	27	37→39	44→45	52→50	38	189/250/296	107	286	12	13	37%	7%	48	-1.9	178/233/289	111	303	12	9	43%	5%	39	-2.5	153/204/262	109	276	11	8	47%	4%	16	-2.4
✕Rogelio Noris 2017 · AAA	27	38→31	46→45	47→45	33	199/236/315	116	264	15	7	31%	3%	47	-1.9	225/260/362	137	279	18	8	26%	4%	69	-0.4	237/264/381	144	275	21	4	23%	2%	74	-0.0
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA	27	34→29	46→50	50	43	180/253/311	131	257	14	12	35%	8%	54	-1.4	199/273/346	147	278	18	12	33%	8%	72	-0.2	173/257/338	165	221	24	12	34%	9%	60	-0.5
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA	26	37→39	44→50	45→50	38	185/252/306	121	279	11	10	36%	6%	53	-1.5	189/263/296	107	295	8	13	36%	7%	54	-1.4	160/248/262	103	254	7	16	37%	8%	40	-1.1
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	33→28	45	49→50	42	177/246/290	113	244	14	18	33%	7%	46	-2.0	206/279/324	118	280	13	12	29%	9%	68	-0.5	189/267/300	111	249	11	7	27%	9%	56	-0.5
✕Jimmy Kerrigan 2021 · AAA	27	38→37	48→50	46→50	33	200/244/335	135	279	17	12	34%	4%	56	-1.3	210/263/350	140	331	17	13	40%	6%	68	-0.5	191/246/332	141	308	18	13	42%	5%	55	-0.9
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA	26	36	39→50	50→55	40	177/243/264	88	262	6	14	33%	6%	37	-2.6	198/276/337	139	318	16	16	40%	8%	71	-0.3	186/272/335	149	306	19	19	42%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Cory Vaughn 2015 · AAA	26	38→41	44→45	54→50	40	191/262/305	114	272	13	15	33%	7%	56	-1.3	193/257/300	107	289	10	12	35%	7%	53	-1.5	149/216/240	91	232	8	9	38%	7%	17	-1.5
✕Wade Gaynor 2015 · AAA	27	38→42	47→50	52→50	37	196/247/337	141	282	14	12	35%	6%	58	-1.2	181/221/297	116	261	12	13	35%	5%	36	-2.7	139/173/229	90	196	10	12	35%	4%	-6	-4.1
✕Cody Puckett 2013 · AAA	26	37→39	47→50	50	39	195/247/328	133	260	15	11	31%	6%	55	-1.4	212/254/352	140	250	18	10	23%	5%	65	-0.7	208/243/357	149	220	23	8	19%	4%	58	-0.8
✕Trent Giambrone 2022 · AAA	28	35→41	43→50	48→55	41	179/241/285	105	253	11	13	33%	7%	42	-2.3	189/249/278	89	270	8	15	31%	7%	43	-2.2	160/223/224	65	230	5	19	31%	6%	16	-2.0
✕Angelo Castellano 2022 · AAA	27	38→47	44→45	49→50	40	196/248/301	105	255	13	12	28%	6%	48	-1.9	209/272/329	120	259	14	13	24%	7%	66	-0.6	205/273/329	124	247	15	14	23%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Erick Monzon 2009 · AA	27	38→43	41→45	51→50	43	191/245/290	98	255	9	12	28%	7%	43	-2.2	201/251/308	107	284	12	12	32%	6%	51	-1.7	178/220/273	94	244	15	13	33%	5%	26	-1.0
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→37	44→50	47→55	38	184/248/300	115	271	12	13	35%	6%	49	-1.8	201/261/346	145	293	17	19	36%	6%	66	-0.6	197/258/338	141	284	18	24	36%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Luis Aviles Jr. 2022 · AA	27	40	46→50	53→55	38	205/250/330	125	281	14	20	32%	5%	57	-1.2	207/249/345	138	287	15	20	32%	5%	60	-1.0	199/240/333	135	275	14	23	33%	4%	50	-1.2
✕Patrick Brady 2015 · AAA	27	41	46→45	44→45	39	210/254/335	126	277	14	8	30%	5%	59	-1.1	216/267/323	107	307	8	12	30%	6%	62	-0.9	217/274/312	95	312	4	14	30%	7%	58	-0.4