Ivan Cespedes

C ACL Cubs
Age 21 R/R 5'8" / 190 lbs ROK HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1221ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKDSL Cubs Blue25.100/.280/.25011-5—.048/.200/.048
202519ROKDSL Cubs Red126.292/.360/.5047434—.171/.224/.291
202620A/ROKCHC220.260/.355/.4328153—.194/.264/.318
2027PROJMLE21MLBCHC330.199/.264/.31175620.0
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBCHC60.205/.271/.32511670.0
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBCHC127.209/.275/.33632710.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
ISO45
BB%45
wRC+37
wOBA30
Whiff%24
K%23
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%
CompsJohan Mieses (age 21) · Sammy Hernandez (age 20) · Marcus Greene Jr. (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 128 proj PA
wRC+†62
AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .262 / .308
PA128
HR3
K%30
BB%7
ISO112
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: -0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.3 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +2.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.30.40.40.30.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 31 / POW 51
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT31
scouting grade only
POWER51
scouting grade only
EYE51
scouting grade only
SPEED50
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.5M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.3$0.7M+$0.2M
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2036Arb-1$0.4M———
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $2M +$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202418 ROKDSL Cubs Blue — 2520 2001 580 10 100280250530 15091 3220 259 -5 — — — — — —
202519 ROKDSL Cubs Red — 126113 33307 11311 41 292360504864 212342 259 378 34 — — — — — —
202620 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 10490 19203 12312 00 211317333651 122286 3012 301 39 — — — — — —
202620 ROKACL Cubs — 116102 31705 14260 11 304388520908 216366 2212 400 66 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202418 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Blue — 2521 1000 4100 10 4820048248 58 4016 161 -5 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Red — 126117 20204 7391 41 171224291515 120209 316 218 34 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 10494 16202 8422 00 170250255505 85268 408 226 39 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 116107 23504 9370 11 215276374650 159277 328 266 66 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Blue — 2521 1000 4100 10 4820048248 91 4016 161 -5 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWDSL Cubs Blue — 2520 2001 580 10 100280250530 15091 3220 259 -5 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Red — 126117 20204 7391 41 171224291515 120213 316 218 34 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAWDSL Cubs Red — 126113 33307 11311 41 292360504864 212342 259 378 34 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLE2 teams — 220201 38606 17802 11 189259308568 119278 368 247 53 — — — — — —
202620 ROK RAW2 teams — 220192 50908 26572 11 260355432787 172331 2612 353 53 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Blue — 2521 1000 4100 10 4820048248 58 4016 161 -5 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Red — 126117 20204 7391 41 171224291515 120209 316 218 34 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLE2 teams — 220199 38606 17802 11 191259312571 121273 368 247 53 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Blue — 2521 1000 4100 10 4820048248 58 4016 161 -5 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Red — 126117 20204 7391 41 171224291515 120209 316 218 34 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLE2 teams — 220199 38606 17802 11 191259312571 121273 368 247 53 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLECHC 0% 330300 611027 241003 52 199264311575 112269 307 260 62 -15 +0 +0 +6 +7 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLECHC 34% 174157 32514 13522 31 204270324594 120272 307 268 67 -7 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.0
202923 MLB MLECHC 48% 263240 49816 19772 51 208274335609 127274 297 274 71 -9 +1 +0 +5 +6 0.2
203024 MLB MLECHC 53% 344312 661129 26993 62 211278343621 132275 298 279 75 -10 +0 +0 +6 +7 0.4
203125 MLB MLECHC 55% 386350 7513210 291104 72 214281349630 135277 288 282 77 -10 +1 +0 +7 +8 0.6
203226 MLB MLECHC 56% 411373 8014211 311154 82 216283354637 138277 288 285 79 -10 +1 +0 +7 +9 0.7
203327 MLB MLECHC 55% 419380 8114211 321184 82 214282351633 136276 288 284 78 -11 +1 +0 +7 +9 0.7
203428 MLB MLECHC 55% 419380 8114211 321194 72 213280346626 134275 288 281 76 -12 +1 -1 +7 +9 0.5
203529 MLB MLECHC 53% 412375 7913211 311183 63 210277340617 130274 298 277 74 -13 +0 -1 +7 +9 0.2
203630 MLB MLECHC 53% 401365 7613210 301163 63 207273332605 125272 297 272 70 -14 +0 -2 +7 +9 -0.0
202822 MLB CTXCHC 34% 6055 11201 4181 10 205271325596 120274 307 268 67 -2 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.0
202923 MLB CTXCHC 48% 127116 24413 9371 21 209275336611 126277 297 275 71 -4 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.1
203024 MLB CTXCHC 53% 181163 35615 14522 31 213279344623 131278 298 279 75 -5 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.2
203125 MLB CTXCHC 55% 211191 40715 16602 41 215282350632 135279 288 283 77 -6 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.3
203226 MLB CTXCHC 56% 229208 45816 17642 41 217284354638 137280 287 286 79 -6 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.4
203327 MLB CTXCHC 55% 230208 45816 18652 41 216283351635 136279 288 284 78 -6 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.4
203428 MLB CTXCHC 55% 229208 45816 17652 41 214281347628 133278 287 281 76 -6 +0 -0 +4 +5 0.3
203529 MLB CTXCHC 53% 220199 41715 17632 31 211278340618 129277 298 278 74 -7 +0 -1 +4 +5 0.1
203630 MLB CTXCHC 53% 211191 40715 16612 31 208274332607 124274 298 273 70 -7 +0 -1 +4 +5 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 16981539 32657842 12848516 288 212279341620 129278 298 280 71 -50 +2 -2 +30 +37 1.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650589 12522316 491866 113 212280341621 129279 298 280 71 -19 +1 -1 +12 +14 0.7
Career— MLE — 37283388 7021171796 280109233 6421 207274337611 130273 298 273 71 -102 +4 -4 +60 +73 3.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650591 12220317 491906 114 206274337611 130271 298 273 71 -20 +1 -1 +12 +14 0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Cubs · 116 PAwOBA .389 → .266 (−123)K% 22.4% → 32.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.41%÷1.000×1.440——32.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.07%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9857.37%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9850.00%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.000×0.820×0.985×0.98519.90%
Doubles /BIP9.21%÷1.000×0.720×0.985×0.9856.44%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720×0.985×0.9850.00%
Home runs /BIP6.58%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9855.05%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .389 → .266; ISO .216 → .148; BABIP .366 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 104 PAwOBA .294 → .226 (−68)K% 29.8% → 40.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.81%÷1.000×1.360——40.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.54%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0158.08%
HBP% /PA1.92%—×0.780—×1.0151.52%
Singles /BIP23.73%÷1.000×0.920×1.026×1.01522.72%
Doubles /BIP3.39%÷1.000×0.830×1.026×1.0152.93%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910×1.026×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP5.08%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0154.13%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .294 → .226; ISO .122 → .088; BABIP .286 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Cubs Red · 126 PAwOBA .371 → .218 (−152)K% 24.6% → 31.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.60%÷0.966×1.220——31.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.73%÷1.036×0.700—×0.9855.81%
HBP% /PA0.79%—×0.700—×0.9850.55%
Singles /BIP28.05%÷0.981×0.680×0.950×0.98518.19%
Doubles /BIP3.66%÷1.012×0.600×0.950×0.9852.03%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.600×0.950×0.9850.00%
Home runs /BIP8.54%÷0.876×0.470—×0.9854.51%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 96, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 93, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .371 → .218; ISO .212 → .109; BABIP .342 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Cubs Blue · 25 PAwOBA .253 → .161 (−93)K% 32.0% → 40.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA32.00%÷0.976×1.220——39.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.00%÷0.968×0.700—×0.99514.39%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.700—×0.9950.00%
Singles /BIP8.33%÷1.008×0.680—×0.9955.59%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.028×0.600—×0.9950.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.963×0.600—×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP8.33%÷0.911×0.470—×0.9954.28%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 106, 3B 93, K 95, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .253 → .161; ISO .150 → .073; BABIP .091 → .058. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).