Ivan Cespedes — OGILVIE

Ivan CespedesC ACL Cubs

Age 20 R/R 5'8" / 190 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION137 act + 91 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .274 / .348

PA91

HR3

K%31

BB%8

BABIP268

ISO144

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 29 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT29

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.0	$10M	+$10M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.0	$9M	+$9M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.9	$8M	+$8M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+1.7	$7M	+$6M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+1.5	$6M	+$4M
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+1.1	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$16M		$44M	+$38M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	25	22	2	0	0	1	3	12	0	1	0	91	200	227	427	136	111	48	12	175	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	25	20	2	0	0	1	5	8	0	1	0	100	280	250	530	150	91	32	20	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	126	118	24	2	0	6	6	48	1	4	1	203	248	373	621	169	277	38	5	271	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	126	113	33	3	0	7	11	31	1	4	1	292	360	504	864	212	342	25	9	378	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	ROK	CHC	—	137	125	25	5	0	5	12	46	0	1	1	200	270	360	630	160	270	34	9	282	74	-4	-0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
YTD	20	ROK	CHC	—	137	118	35	8	0	7	19	32	0	1	1	297	394	542	937	246	354	23	14	410	172	+11	-0	+0	+2	+4	1.8
ROS	20	ROK	CHC	0%	91	83	17	3	0	3	7	28	1	1	0	204	274	348	622	144	269	31	8	273	67	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
ROS	20	MLB	CHC	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		270	—	—	271	65	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	ROK	CHC	—	137	126	25	5	0	5	12	46	0	1	1	198	270	357	627	159	267	34	9	282	74	-4	-0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
TOT	20	ROK	CHC	—	228	208	42	8	0	8	19	74	1	2	1	202	272	355	627	154	269	32	8	278	71	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	CHC	34%	271	246	53	9	1	9	21	80	2	4	1	215	283	370	652	154	273	30	8	285	76	-7	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2028	22	MLB	CHC	48%	379	344	76	13	2	13	29	109	3	7	2	221	287	384	671	163	276	29	8	292	82	-8	+1	+0	+7	+11	1.1
2029	23	MLB	CHC	54%	448	407	90	16	2	15	35	127	3	8	3	221	288	381	668	160	278	28	8	298	86	-7	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.4
2030	24	MLB	CHC	55%	493	447	99	17	2	17	39	139	4	9	3	221	290	383	672	161	279	28	8	301	89	-6	+1	+0	+9	+14	1.7
2031	25	MLB	CHC	56%	517	467	105	18	2	19	41	145	4	10	3	225	293	394	687	169	279	28	8	303	90	-6	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.9
2032	26	MLB	CHC	56%	520	470	105	18	2	19	41	146	4	10	3	223	291	391	683	168	279	28	8	305	91	-5	+1	+0	+9	+15	2.0
2033	27	MLB	CHC	55%	520	469	105	18	2	19	42	146	4	10	3	224	293	392	686	168	279	28	8	305	91	-5	+1	+0	+9	+15	2.0
2034	28	MLB	CHC	55%	520	469	105	18	2	19	42	147	4	10	3	224	293	392	686	168	279	28	8	304	90	-6	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.9
2035	29	MLB	CHC	53%	520	469	104	18	2	19	42	148	4	10	3	222	291	390	681	168	278	28	8	302	89	-6	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.7
2036	30	MLB	CHC	53%	512	461	101	17	2	18	42	147	4	9	3	219	290	382	672	163	276	29	8	299	87	-8	+1	-2	+9	+15	1.5
2037	31	MLB	CHC	57%	484	438	95	16	2	17	39	141	4	8	3	217	287	379	666	162	274	29	8	295	84	-9	+0	-3	+9	+14	1.1
2038	32	MLB	CHC	59%	451	408	85	14	1	15	37	133	3	7	3	208	279	358	637	150	270	29	8	289	79	-10	+0	-4	+8	+13	0.7
2027	21	MLB	CHC	34%	93	85	18	3	0	3	7	27	1	1	0	212	280	353	633	141	275	29	8	282	74	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2028	22	MLB	CHC	48%	184	167	36	6	1	6	14	53	1	3	1	216	280	371	651	156	277	29	8	289	79	-4	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.4
2029	23	MLB	CHC	54%	243	220	49	9	1	8	19	69	2	4	2	223	290	382	672	159	279	28	8	294	83	-5	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.7
2030	24	MLB	CHC	55%	273	248	56	10	1	10	21	77	2	5	2	226	292	395	687	169	281	28	8	297	86	-4	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.9
2031	25	MLB	CHC	56%	289	262	59	10	1	11	23	81	2	6	2	225	293	397	690	172	281	28	8	299	87	-4	+0	+0	+5	+8	1.0
2032	26	MLB	CHC	56%	292	265	59	10	1	11	23	82	2	6	2	223	290	392	682	170	281	28	8	301	88	-4	+0	+0	+5	+8	1.0
2033	27	MLB	CHC	55%	288	261	59	10	1	11	23	81	2	6	2	226	294	398	692	172	280	28	8	301	88	-4	+0	+0	+5	+8	1.0
2034	28	MLB	CHC	55%	285	258	58	10	1	11	23	81	2	5	2	225	293	399	693	174	280	28	8	300	87	-4	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.9
2035	29	MLB	CHC	53%	278	251	56	10	1	10	23	79	2	5	2	223	293	390	684	167	279	28	8	298	86	-4	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.8
2036	30	MLB	CHC	53%	269	243	54	9	1	10	22	77	2	5	2	222	292	391	683	169	278	29	8	295	84	-5	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.7
2037	31	MLB	CHC	57%	274	248	54	9	1	10	22	80	2	5	2	218	287	383	670	165	275	29	8	291	81	-6	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.5
2038	32	MLB	CHC	59%	267	241	52	9	1	9	22	79	2	4	2	216	287	373	660	158	272	30	8	286	77	-7	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3035	2750	610	105	11	110	242	866	22	55	21	222	290	388	678	166	280	29	8	295	84	-54	+3	-6	+54	+86	8.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	130	22	2	24	52	185	5	12	4	221	289	387	677	166	277	28	8	295	84	-12	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.8
Career	—			—	5877	5318	1166	197	22	209	466	1696	45	108	34	219	288	382	670	163	278	29	8	297	86	-95	+8	-10	+105	+167	17.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	129	22	2	23	52	188	5	12	4	219	288	381	669	162	279	29	8	297	86	-10	+1	-1	+12	+18	2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	25	20	2	0	0	1	5	8	0	1	0	100	280	250	530	150	91	32	20	259	56	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2025	19	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	126	113	33	3	0	7	11	31	1	4	1	292	360	504	864	212	342	25	9	378	148	+7	+0	—	—	+4	1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	8	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
	/162	664	17	4	246	300	398	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#5Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,185	112	58	221	286	384	+57	+28	9.7	8.4
	/162	664	23	12	221	286	384	+11.9	+5.8	2.0	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ivan Cespedes (OGILVIE)	20	24→29	55→60	46→51	49	202/272/355	154	269	8	2	32%	8%	71	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Orelvis Martinez 2021 · A	19	42→36	47→60	53→40	42	213/270/351	139	273	14	6	27%	6%	71	-0.3	202/270/401	199	257	27	4	33%	7%	85	+0.7	187/258/394	206	226	30	3	33%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Kevin Padlo 2016 · A	20	38→40	45→55	50	46	193/270/323	130	263	12	8	30%	9%	64	-0.8	183/268/311	128	268	12	8	34%	10%	60	-1.0	195/265/371	176	262	22	12	34%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Max Muncy 2023 · A	20	38→45	48→55	50	41	195/268/337	143	297	17	12	38%	8%	67	-0.5	211/276/338	127	323	13	9	36%	7%	70	-0.3	226/295/388	162	313	20	6	32%	6%	90	+0.5
✕Jeferson Quero 2023 · A	20	44→42	44→50	49→45	41	219/269/335	116	284	12	9	27%	6%	66	-0.6	226/283/364	138	283	16	7	25%	7%	79	+0.3	225/289/370	145	269	18	4	23%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Miguel Amaya 2019 · A	20	43→42	45→50	48→40	45	215/281/332	117	268	13	4	25%	7%	71	-0.3	214/290/343	129	271	14	4	25%	8%	78	+0.2	228/299/368	140	271	16	1	22%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Sean Coyle 2012 · A	20	38→34	48→50	53→50	42	192/272/344	152	278	15	13	35%	8%	70	-0.3	196/254/341	145	281	17	14	35%	6%	62	-0.9	192/251/359	168	278	23	15	39%	7%	64	-0.4
✕René Pinto 2017 · A	20	41	46→60	47→40	39	209/251/339	130	263	13	5	26%	4%	59	-1.1	226/270/321	95	293	7	3	24%	5%	62	-0.9	211/247/384	172	288	24	3	35%	4%	67	-0.3
✕Francisco Murillo 2007 · A	20	42	47→50	49→50	43	213/279/346	134	292	15	8	32%	8%	73	-0.1	199/260/320	121	303	12	6	36%	7%	59	-1.1	150/210/278	128	229	14	3	40%	6%	26	-1.2
✕Agustín Ramírez 2023 · A	21	43→45	45→55	51→55	44	215/274/342	127	287	12	11	29%	7%	70	-0.3	231/293/393	162	278	19	13	24%	7%	92	+1.2	232/295/411	179	268	22	16	22%	7%	94	+1.3
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	40→33	46→55	52→50	39	205/249/339	134	269	14	14	29%	5%	59	-1.1	183/230/341	158	264	20	4	38%	5%	52	-1.6	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Jeter Downs 2018 · A	20	42→40	43→50	47→55	47	208/276/316	107	257	11	9	23%	7%	64	-0.8	211/277/355	144	271	15	17	27%	7%	75	-0.0	175/266/324	149	236	18	26	33%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Jesús Báez 2023 · A	18	39→35	45→55	44→45	44	197/265/314	117	266	13	9	30%	8%	59	-1.1	203/264/335	132	259	15	9	27%	7%	65	-0.7	213/269/389	177	241	26	8	24%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Alexander Canario 2021 · A	21	44→34	50→60	48→50	40	223/281/376	154	307	18	8	33%	7%	82	+0.5	201/256/378	177	290	23	14	38%	6%	72	-0.2	205/276/414	209	281	28	13	37%	8%	87	+0.5
✕Bryan Ramos 2022 · A	20	39→43	45→50	49→50	40	199/265/323	124	270	13	8	30%	6%	63	-0.9	211/270/351	140	268	18	5	28%	6%	72	-0.2	205/264/342	137	255	19	5	27%	6%	63	-0.6
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2009 · A	20	39	43→45	42→50	48	193/294/300	106	278	11	10	32%	10%	69	-0.4	183/263/286	103	286	10	6	37%	8%	52	-1.6	153/236/254	101	237	11	2	38%	9%	32	-0.9
✕Maxwell Morales 2018 · A	20	35	47→50	47→45	39	184/254/313	129	278	16	6	38%	8%	56	-1.3	208/264/342	134	298	15	6	33%	6%	66	-0.6	203/251/379	176	261	20	2	30%	5%	71	-0.1
✕Austin Hedges 2013 · A	20	44→40	41→60	45	43	217/266/317	100	264	9	12	21%	5%	59	-1.1	212/257/309	97	270	8	7	24%	5%	53	-1.5	227/269/415	187	271	26	4	27%	5%	84	+0.4
✕Jhonkensy Noel 2021 · A	20	41→40	44→55	47→45	41	205/267/321	116	274	12	7	29%	6%	62	-0.9	215/265/384	169	280	22	5	31%	5%	78	+0.2	194/257/378	183	244	25	1	32%	6%	70	-0.3
✕Thayron Liranzo 2023 · A	20	40→43	48→50	48→30	42	203/273/350	147	290	16	5	34%	8%	72	-0.2	209/296/373	164	316	19	2	37%	11%	88	+0.9	194/286/350	156	291	19	1	37%	11%	74	-0.0
✕Sam Huff 2018 · A	20	40→42	44→55	46→45	37	195/255/311	116	314	12	4	40%	7%	54	-1.4	189/233/316	127	315	14	6	43%	4%	46	-2.0	215/278/394	178	310	27	1	38%	7%	82	+0.3