Aneudis Mordán
C Aberdeen IronBirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROKBAL | 141 | .274/.393/.504 | 7 | 2 | 67 | — | .184/.271/.336 |
| 2024 | 20 | A+/A2 orgs | 406 | .218/.311/.375 | 13 | 5 | 42 | — | .168/.240/.282 |
| 2025 | 21 | A+Aberdeen Iron… | 221 | .199/.282/.293 | 3 | 1 | 17 | — | .157/.216/.222 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBBAL | 345 | .202/.262/.300 | 5 | 5 | 58 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBBAL | 30 | .210/.270/.320 | 1 | 0 | 63 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBBAL | 74 | .213/.274/.329 | 1 | 1 | 67 | 0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 126 | 106 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 317 | 264 | 582 | 75 | 268 | 27 | 15 | 279 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL BAL Orange | — | 130 | 118 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 292 | 263 | 555 | 42 | 313 | 27 | 7 | 261 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 141 | 117 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 274 | 393 | 504 | 897 | 231 | 305 | 21 | 13 | 395 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 65 | 62 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 246 | 306 | 553 | 97 | 333 | 35 | 5 | 247 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 341 | 295 | 65 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 43 | 91 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 220 | 324 | 390 | 713 | 169 | 272 | 27 | 13 | 322 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 221 | 191 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 56 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 199 | 282 | 293 | 575 | 94 | 263 | 25 | 9 | 257 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 126 | 111 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 117 | 222 | 153 | 375 | 36 | 171 | 33 | 11 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Orange | — | 130 | 121 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 132 | 192 | 157 | 349 | 25 | 200 | 33 | 5 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 141 | 125 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 43 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 184 | 271 | 336 | 607 | 152 | 225 | 30 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 65 | 63 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 159 | 185 | 238 | 423 | 79 | 282 | 46 | 3 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 341 | 307 | 52 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 31 | 120 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 169 | 250 | 290 | 540 | 121 | 234 | 35 | 9 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 221 | 198 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 72 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 157 | 216 | 222 | 438 | 66 | 217 | 33 | 6 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 126 | 111 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 117 | 222 | 153 | 375 | 36 | 186 | 33 | 11 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 126 | 106 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 317 | 264 | 582 | 75 | 268 | 27 | 15 | 279 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Orange | — | 130 | 121 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 132 | 192 | 157 | 349 | 25 | 205 | 33 | 5 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL BAL Orange | — | 130 | 118 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 220 | 292 | 263 | 555 | 42 | 313 | 27 | 7 | 261 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 141 | 125 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 43 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 184 | 271 | 336 | 607 | 152 | 231 | 30 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Orioles | — | 141 | 117 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 274 | 393 | 504 | 897 | 231 | 305 | 21 | 13 | 395 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 406 | 370 | 62 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 150 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 168 | 240 | 281 | 521 | 114 | 248 | 37 | 8 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 406 | 357 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 13 | 46 | 114 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 218 | 311 | 375 | 686 | 157 | 283 | 28 | 11 | 310 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 221 | 198 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 72 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 157 | 216 | 222 | 438 | 66 | 232 | 33 | 6 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ RAW | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 221 | 191 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 56 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 199 | 282 | 293 | 575 | 94 | 263 | 25 | 9 | 257 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles 2 | — | 126 | 110 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 118 | 222 | 155 | 377 | 36 | 171 | 33 | 11 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL BAL Orange | — | 130 | 120 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 133 | 192 | 158 | 351 | 25 | 200 | 33 | 5 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 141 | 125 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 43 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 184 | 271 | 336 | 607 | 152 | 225 | 30 | 8 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 406 | 368 | 62 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 150 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 168 | 240 | 283 | 522 | 114 | 242 | 37 | 8 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 221 | 204 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 72 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 152 | 216 | 216 | 432 | 64 | 217 | 33 | 6 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 406 | 368 | 62 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 150 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 168 | 240 | 283 | 522 | 114 | 242 | 37 | 8 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 221 | 204 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 72 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 152 | 216 | 216 | 432 | 64 | 217 | 33 | 6 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | BAL | 0% | 345 | 316 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 88 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 202 | 262 | 300 | 562 | 98 | 261 | 26 | 7 | 254 | 58 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | BAL | 30% | 100 | 92 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 207 | 267 | 313 | 581 | 107 | 263 | 25 | 7 | 262 | 63 | -4 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | BAL | 44% | 167 | 153 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 271 | 321 | 593 | 112 | 265 | 25 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 51% | 231 | 211 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 58 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 211 | 274 | 326 | 600 | 115 | 266 | 25 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 52% | 275 | 252 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 69 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 212 | 275 | 328 | 603 | 116 | 267 | 25 | 7 | 271 | 70 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 303 | 275 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 76 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 212 | 275 | 327 | 602 | 115 | 267 | 25 | 7 | 271 | 70 | -11 | -0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 312 | 284 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 79 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 209 | 272 | 321 | 593 | 111 | 266 | 25 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -12 | -0 | -1 | +6 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | BAL | 30% | 30 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 270 | 320 | 591 | 110 | 267 | 27 | 7 | 266 | 63 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | BAL | 44% | 74 | 68 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 274 | 329 | 603 | 116 | 269 | 26 | 7 | 271 | 67 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 51% | 117 | 107 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 215 | 277 | 334 | 611 | 119 | 270 | 25 | 7 | 274 | 69 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 52% | 144 | 132 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 215 | 278 | 335 | 613 | 120 | 271 | 25 | 7 | 276 | 70 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 162 | 148 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 215 | 278 | 335 | 613 | 119 | 271 | 25 | 7 | 276 | 70 | -6 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 164 | 150 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 213 | 276 | 328 | 604 | 115 | 270 | 26 | 7 | 272 | 67 | -6 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 691 | 633 | 135 | 27 | 4 | 13 | 49 | 175 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 213 | 275 | 330 | 605 | 117 | 272 | 25 | 7 | 274 | 52 | -26 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +15 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 595 | 127 | 25 | 4 | 12 | 46 | 165 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 213 | 276 | 329 | 605 | 116 | 273 | 25 | 7 | 274 | 52 | -24 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2493 | 2267 | 426 | 83 | 7 | 44 | 179 | 719 | 25 | 29 | 20 | 188 | 255 | 289 | 544 | 101 | 252 | 29 | 7 | 245 | 52 | -57 | +0 | -2 | +26 | +32 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 111 | 22 | 2 | 11 | 47 | 187 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 188 | 256 | 288 | 543 | 100 | 253 | 29 | 7 | 245 | 52 | -25 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 221 PAwOBA .252 → .193 (−59)K% 25.3% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.34% | ÷1.013 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.05% | ÷0.944 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 5.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.26% | ÷0.990 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 16.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.010 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 5.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.091 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.229 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 1.63% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 118, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .252 → .193; ISO .094 → .070; BABIP .263 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 341 PAwOBA .314 → .242 (−72)K% 26.7% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.69% | ÷1.035 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.61% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.59% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.10% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.958 | ×1.030 | 18.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.39% | ÷1.216 | ×0.830 | ×0.958 | ×1.030 | 3.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.943 | ×0.910 | ×0.958 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.37% | ÷0.952 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 5.52% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 143, 3B 89, K 107, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .314 → .242; ISO .169 → .129; BABIP .272 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 65 PAwOBA .241 → .168 (−73)K% 35.4% → 46.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.38% | ÷0.993 | ×1.310 | — | — | 46.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.62% | ÷0.947 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 3.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.51% | ÷1.048 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 17.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.26% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 8.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .241 → .168; ISO .097 → .066; BABIP .333 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Orioles · 141 PAwOBA .385 → .267 (−118)K% 20.6% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.57% | ÷0.972 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.77% | ÷1.056 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.84% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.59% | ÷1.025 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 16.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷0.960 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 4.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.95% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 6.09% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 98, K 94, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .385 → .267; ISO .231 → .167; BABIP .305 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL BAL Orange · 130 PAwOBA .254 → .160 (−95)K% 26.9% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.92% | ÷0.997 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.92% | ÷0.988 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 4.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.31% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.30% | ÷0.997 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 16.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.02% | ÷1.004 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 3.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.093 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 119, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .254 → .160; ISO .042 → .023; BABIP .313 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Orioles 2 · 126 PAwOBA .273 → .177 (−95)K% 27.0% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.98% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 10.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 13.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 2.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 0.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.67% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .273 → .177; ISO .075 → .040; BABIP .268 → .171. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).