Nick Lovullo
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 24 | AA/A+2 orgs | 267 | .203/.284/.270 | 2 | 1 | 27 | — | .180/.239/.229 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA/AA/A+3 orgs | 273 | .220/.294/.293 | 2 | 1 | 23 | — | .173/.224/.228 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAMIA | 59 | .302/.373/.472 | 1 | 1 | 81 | — | .255/.305/.400 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 142 | 129 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 163 | 223 | 194 | 417 | 31 | 219 | 23 | 6 | 194 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 20 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 400 | 294 | 694 | 417 | 25 | 15 | 331 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 262 | 231 | 54 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 39 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 234 | 311 | 303 | 614 | 69 | 276 | 15 | 9 | 279 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 97 | 76 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 329 | 446 | 447 | 893 | 118 | 375 | 12 | 14 | 385 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 214 | 187 | 38 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 203 | 294 | 289 | 583 | 86 | 247 | 18 | 10 | 268 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 53 | 50 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 200 | 245 | 200 | 445 | 244 | 17 | 6 | 210 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 50 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 265 | 289 | 554 | 89 | 267 | 28 | 8 | 250 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 68 | 63 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 175 | 235 | 175 | 410 | 262 | 31 | 7 | 198 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 155 | 138 | 34 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 246 | 329 | 348 | 677 | 101 | 308 | 19 | 10 | 310 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 59 | 53 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 302 | 373 | 472 | 845 | 170 | 385 | 22 | 10 | 374 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 142 | 132 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 152 | 194 | 182 | 376 | 30 | 210 | 30 | 4 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 20 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 278 | 350 | 278 | 628 | 416 | 30 | 10 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 262 | 241 | 46 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 58 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 191 | 241 | 245 | 486 | 54 | 241 | 22 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 97 | 81 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 321 | 402 | 432 | 834 | 111 | 343 | 16 | 9 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 214 | 194 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 186 | 251 | 247 | 499 | 62 | 231 | 22 | 7 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 53 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 157 | 189 | 157 | 346 | 215 | 25 | 4 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 50 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 245 | 283 | 528 | 87 | 262 | 34 | 6 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 68 | 65 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 154 | 191 | 154 | 345 | 247 | 38 | 4 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 155 | 144 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 174 | 232 | 243 | 475 | 69 | 250 | 28 | 6 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 59 | 55 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 255 | 305 | 400 | 705 | 145 | 333 | 27 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 142 | 132 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 152 | 194 | 182 | 376 | 30 | 225 | 30 | 4 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 142 | 129 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 163 | 223 | 194 | 417 | 31 | 219 | 23 | 6 | 194 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 379 | 340 | 75 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 80 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 221 | 282 | 274 | 555 | 53 | 284 | 21 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 379 | 324 | 84 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 56 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 259 | 350 | 336 | 686 | 77 | 306 | 15 | 11 | 309 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 267 | 245 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 62 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 180 | 239 | 229 | 467 | 49 | 236 | 23 | 6 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 267 | 237 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 203 | 284 | 270 | 554 | 68 | 246 | 18 | 9 | 256 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 273 | 254 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 173 | 228 | 228 | 456 | 55 | 255 | 32 | 6 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 273 | 246 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 65 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 220 | 294 | 293 | 587 | 73 | 291 | 24 | 9 | 271 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 59 | 55 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 255 | 305 | 400 | 705 | 145 | 342 | 27 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 59 | 53 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 302 | 373 | 472 | 845 | 170 | 385 | 22 | 10 | 374 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 142 | 134 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 149 | 194 | 179 | 373 | 30 | 210 | 30 | 4 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 379 | 347 | 75 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 80 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 216 | 282 | 268 | 550 | 52 | 276 | 21 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 267 | 246 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 62 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 179 | 239 | 228 | 466 | 49 | 228 | 23 | 6 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 273 | 253 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 174 | 228 | 229 | 457 | 55 | 251 | 32 | 6 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 27 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 59 | 55 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 255 | 305 | 400 | 705 | 145 | 333 | 27 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1120 | 1026 | 197 | 33 | 4 | 5 | 68 | 288 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 192 | 248 | 247 | 495 | 55 | 261 | 26 | 6 | 219 | 34 | -87 | -4 | +0 | +4 | +24 | -6.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 114 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 39 | 167 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 192 | 247 | 245 | 492 | 54 | 261 | 26 | 6 | 219 | 34 | -51 | -2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -3.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 59 PAwOBA .364 → .288 (−76)K% 22.0% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.03% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.17% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.968 | 6.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.968 | 22.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.026 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 8.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 1.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.011 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 1.87% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 102, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .364 → .288; ISO .170 → .129; BABIP .385 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Salem Red Sox · 155 PAwOBA .302 → .217 (−86)K% 19.4% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.35% | ÷0.958 | ×1.420 | — | — | 28.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.68% | ÷0.968 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.968 | 6.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.29% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.37% | ÷1.003 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 17.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.19% | ÷1.070 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 7.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.972 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.080 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.968 | 0.75% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 101, 2B 114, 3B 94, K 92, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .302 → .217; ISO .101 → .068; BABIP .308 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 68 PAwOBA .193 → .159 (−34)K% 30.9% → 38.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.88% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.35% | ÷0.997 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.19% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 24.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.158 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 132, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .193 → .159; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .262 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 50 PAwOBA .243 → .215 (−28)K% 28.0% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.00% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.58% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 22.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.23% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 3.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.038 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 2.66% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 91, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .243 → .215; ISO .089 → .074; BABIP .267 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 214 PAwOBA .261 → .220 (−41)K% 18.2% → 22.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.22% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.28% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.24% | ÷1.001 | ×0.970 | ×1.011 | ×0.998 | 17.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷1.052 | ×0.860 | ×1.011 | ×0.998 | 4.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.011 | ×0.998 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.166 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.90% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 100, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .261 → .220; ISO .086 → .066; BABIP .247 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Salem Red Sox · 53 PAwOBA .205 → .160 (−45)K% 17.0% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.98% | ÷0.960 | ×1.420 | — | — | 25.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.66% | ÷0.939 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 3.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.39% | ÷1.066 | ×0.940 | ×1.020 | ×0.978 | 21.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.102 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | ×1.020 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 113, 2B 120, 3B 107, K 92, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .205 → .160; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .244 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Salem Red Sox · 262 PAwOBA .273 → .217 (−56)K% 14.9% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.89% | ÷0.958 | ×1.420 | — | — | 22.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.16% | ÷1.043 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 5.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.40% | ÷1.042 | ×0.940 | ×0.991 | ×0.988 | 19.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.65% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | ×0.991 | ×0.988 | 3.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷0.956 | ×0.800 | ×0.991 | ×0.988 | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.52% | ÷0.956 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 0.48% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 95, 3B 91, K 92, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .273 → .217; ISO .069 → .057; BABIP .276 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AGreenville Drive · 97 PAwOBA .379 → .332 (−47)K% 12.4% → 16.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.37% | ÷0.995 | ×1.340 | — | — | 16.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.43% | ÷1.020 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.980 | 9.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.06% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.980 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.12% | ÷0.999 | ×0.920 | ×1.043 | ×0.980 | 26.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷0.972 | ×0.820 | ×1.043 | ×0.980 | 8.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.092 | ×0.940 | ×1.043 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.534 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 0.82% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 207, 1B 100, 2B 94, 3B 118, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .379 → .332; ISO .118 → .098; BABIP .375 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).