Jose Guevara

P FCL Mets

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 178 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2031

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL Mets Oran…	10	10	44	1.64	1.55	29.9%	6.9%	—	K 20.3% · BB 8.6% · FIP 2.48
2025	20	MIX3 levels	19	12	57	6.83	3.84	27.2%	11.6%	—	K 18.9% · BB 13.1% · FIP 5.32
2026	21	MIX2 levels	12	5	39	6.46	4.82	27.1%	13.6%	—	K 17.9% · BB 17.4% · FIP 6.99
2027PROJ	22	MLBNYM	4	4	24	5.28	5.28	20.2%	14.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBNYM	5	5	26	5.03	4.93	21.3%	12.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBNYM	7	7	38	4.83	4.72	22.1%	11.2%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Noah Skirrow (age 23) · Jake Lyons (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.28

FIP5.28

K%20.2%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%6.2%

Proj IP24

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	10	10	44	174	52	12	0	100%	4.4	20.3%	8.6%	11.7%	0.0%	1.64	2.48	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	10	10	44	174	52	12	0	100%	4.4	20.3%	8.6%	11.7%	0.0%	1.64	2.48	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	10	10	44	174	52	12	0	100%	4.4	29.9%	6.9%	23.0%	0.0%	1.64	1.55	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	12	57	250	68	29	7	63%	3.0	18.9%	13.1%	5.8%	3.9%	6.83	5.32	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	12	57	250	68	29	7	63%	3.0	18.9%	13.1%	5.8%	3.9%	6.83	5.32	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	12	57	250	68	29	7	63%	3.0	27.2%	11.6%	15.6%	2.8%	6.83	3.84	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	5	39	177	48	24	7	42%	3.2	17.9%	17.4%	0.6%	5.8%	6.46	6.99	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	5	39	177	48	24	7	42%	3.2	17.9%	17.4%	0.6%	5.8%	6.46	6.99	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	5	39	177	48	24	7	42%	3.2	27.1%	13.6%	13.6%	4.0%	6.46	4.82	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	NYM	4	4	24	101	20	14	3	100%	6.0	20.2%	14.0%	6.2%	3.2%	5.28	5.28	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	53	223	48	27	7	100%	5.3	21.3%	12.3%	9.0%	3.1%	5.03	4.93	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	54	229	50	26	7	100%	5.4	22.1%	11.2%	10.8%	3.1%	4.83	4.72	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	55	232	52	24	7	100%	6.1	22.5%	10.5%	12.0%	3.0%	4.67	4.58	+0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	55	232	53	24	7	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.4%	12.3%	3.0%	4.60	4.55	+0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	54	228	52	24	7	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.59	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	5	5	26	110	23	14	3	100%	5.2	21.3%	12.3%	9.0%	3.1%	5.03	4.93	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	38	160	35	18	5	100%	5.4	22.1%	11.2%	10.8%	3.1%	4.83	4.72	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	45	190	43	20	6	100%	5.6	22.5%	10.5%	12.0%	3.0%	4.67	4.58	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	48	203	46	21	6	100%	6.0	22.7%	10.4%	12.3%	3.0%	4.60	4.55	+0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYM	8	8	49	207	47	22	6	100%	6.1	22.7%	10.5%	12.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.59	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	35	205	866	194	94	26	100%	5.9	22.4%	10.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.71	4.26	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	189	92	25	100%	5.8	22.4%	10.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.71	4.26	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		41	27	140	601	114	78	20	66%	3.4	19.0%	13.1%	6.0%	3.4%	5.09	4.99	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	39	200	861	164	112	29	66%	3.4	19.0%	13.1%	6.0%	3.4%	5.09	4.99	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Guevara (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	20.2%	14.0%	3.2%	—	4.74	22.0%	10.6%	162	-0.54	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	87
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	85
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	84
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	84
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	83
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	82
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	82
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	81
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	81
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	80
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	80
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	80
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	80
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	80
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	80
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	79
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	49	22.1%	11.2%	1.19	4.79
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*