Moises Meza — OGILVIE

Moises Meza P ACL Rockies

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 188 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 109

ERA4.87

FIP4.87

K%22.0%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	13	10	43	182	49	21	5	77%	3.3	18.3%	14.4%	3.9%	3.2%	4.85	5.16	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	13	10	43	182	49	21	5	77%	3.3	18.3%	14.4%	3.9%	3.2%	4.85	5.16	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	13	10	43	182	49	21	5	77%	3.3	26.9%	11.5%	15.4%	2.7%	4.85	3.80	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	3	2	9	46	8	4	1	67%	3.0	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	2.2%	7.00	3.93	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	3	2	9	46	8	4	1	67%	3.0	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	2.2%	7.00	3.93	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	3	2	9	46	8	4	1	67%	3.0	17.4%	8.7%	8.7%	2.2%	7.00	4.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	18	0	26	112	23	9	3	0%	1.4	14.0%	10.0%	3.9%	3.8%	5.19	5.25	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	18	0	26	112	23	9	3	0%	1.4	14.0%	10.0%	3.9%	3.8%	5.19	5.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	COL	18	0	26	112	23	9	3	0%	1.4	20.5%	8.0%	12.5%	2.7%	5.19	3.85	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	COL	38	0	40	170	38	19	5	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	2.9%	4.71	4.63	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	COL	19	0	20	84	19	10	2	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	2.9%	4.71	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	0	20	84	19	10	2	0%	1.0	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	2.9%	4.71	4.25	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	101	20	0%	1.1	22.6%	11.4%	11.2%	2.9%	4.71	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		34	12	78	340	57	42	11	35%	2.3	16.8%	12.2%	4.5%	3.3%	5.21	5.02	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	31	200	876	147	107	29	35%	2.3	16.8%	12.2%	4.5%	3.3%	5.21	5.02	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Moises Meza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.87	22.0%	12.6%	3.0%	—	4.63	22.6%	11.2%	40	-0.24	—	—	—
Joel Ibarra R 2022 · 4.08 FIP	20	SW	4.08	21.4%	13.8%	1.9%	.323	4.74	19.6%	-3.4%	86	+0.66	4.08	155	85
Saul Teran R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.5%	9.8%	3.5%	.333	3.88	20.8%	8.7%	94	-0.93	2.28	166	83
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	83
Carlos Campos R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	20	SU	4.82	20.4%	10.7%	3.8%	.304	5.85	15.3%	8.1%	19	+1.03	4.82	134	83
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	82
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	82
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	82
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	82
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	408	81
Reiss Knehr R 2018 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	21.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.267	4.86	18.8%	7.2%	171	+0.57	3.46	398	81
Chase Ingram R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	20	SU	4.11	23.2%	15.8%	1.8%	.244	4.14	15.8%	3.0%	154	+0.03	4.04	174	81
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	80
Johzan Oquendo R 2021 · 4.22 FIP	20	SW	4.22	18.4%	14.5%	1.5%	.294	3.65	23.5%	5.7%	113	-0.57	3.62	187	80
Miguel Castro R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	20	SU	4.61	19.1%	10.9%	3.2%	.290	4.55	14.5%	4.9%	207	-0.06	3.34	554	80
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	80
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	80
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	80
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	80
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	80
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	22.4%	11.9%	1.15	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19