Angelo Smith — OGILVIE

Angelo Smith P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%22.8%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%13.2%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	5	0	6	25	6	1	2	0%	1.2	24.0%	4.0%	20.0%	8.0%	6.00	5.97	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	5	0	6	25	6	1	2	0%	1.2	24.0%	4.0%	20.0%	8.0%	6.00	5.97	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	5	0	6	25	6	1	2	0%	1.2	24.0%	4.0%	20.0%	8.0%	6.00	5.93	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	30	0	48	209	57	20	10	0%	1.6	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	6.7%	5.66	6.33	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	30	0	48	209	57	20	10	0%	1.6	20.5%	10.3%	10.2%	6.7%	5.66	6.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	LAA	3	0	3	14	3	3	0	0%	0.9	21.4%	21.4%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	4.00	—
2026	22	A RAW	LAA	27	0	45	195	54	17	10	0%	1.7	27.7%	8.7%	19.0%	5.1%	5.60	4.68	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAA	46	0	48	205	48	19	6	0%	1.1	23.6%	9.1%	14.5%	3.0%	4.35	4.29	+0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	47	0	50	210	51	18	6	0%	1.1	24.1%	8.8%	15.4%	3.0%	4.26	4.19	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	48	0	50	212	52	18	6	0%	1.0	24.5%	8.6%	15.9%	3.0%	4.19	4.13	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	48	0	50	212	52	18	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.6%	16.1%	3.0%	4.15	4.12	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	47	0	50	209	51	18	6	0%	1.1	24.6%	8.7%	16.0%	3.0%	4.15	4.15	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAA	23	0	24	101	24	9	3	0%	1.0	23.6%	9.1%	14.5%	3.0%	4.35	4.29	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	33	0	35	148	36	13	4	0%	1.1	24.1%	8.8%	15.4%	3.0%	4.26	4.19	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	39	0	41	173	42	15	5	0%	1.1	24.5%	8.6%	15.9%	3.0%	4.19	4.13	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	42	0	44	186	46	16	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.6%	16.1%	3.0%	4.15	4.12	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	43	0	45	190	47	16	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.7%	16.0%	3.0%	4.15	4.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		179	0	188	794	193	69	24	0%	1.1	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	3.0%	4.20	3.79	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	73	26	0%	1.1	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	3.0%	4.20	3.79	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		35	0	54	234	49	23	16	0%	1.5	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	6.8%	5.70	6.29	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	0	200	872	182	84	59	0%	1.5	20.9%	9.6%	11.3%	6.8%	5.70	6.29	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Angelo Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	22.8%	9.6%	3.1%	—	4.20	24.1%	15.2%	148	-0.26	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	92
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	92
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	90
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	90
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	90
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	90
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	89
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	89
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	89
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	89
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	88
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	88
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	87
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	87
RJ Petit R 2022 · 4.43 FIP	22	SU	4.43	20.3%	8.4%	3.6%	.270	3.44	22.2%	12.7%	177	-0.99	3.08	231	87
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	87
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	87
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	87
John Russell R 2018 · 3.98 FIP	22	SU	3.98	22.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.232	4.76	24.0%	11.2%	60	+0.78	3.94	158	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	24.1%	8.8%	1.16	4.25
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47