Christian Oliveira

P ACL Dodgers

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKLAD	14	1	27	11.47	6.81	17.0%	19.0%	—	K 11.6% · BB 23.8% · FIP 7.34
2026	20	ROKLAD	1	0	1	0.00	3.85	14.3%	14.3%	—	K 14.3% · BB 14.3% · FIP 3.70
2027PROJ	21	MLBLAD	15	0	16	5.68	5.68	20.7%	18.1%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBLAD	11	0	12	5.33	5.18	21.9%	15.2%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsWill Varmette (age 21) · José Mesa Jr. (age 22) · Hudson Leach (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.68

FIP5.68

K%20.7%

BB%18.1%

K-BB%2.6%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	14	1	27	147	25	28	5	7%	1.9	11.6%	23.8%	-12.2%	4.0%	11.47	7.34	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	14	1	27	147	25	28	5	7%	1.9	11.6%	23.8%	-12.2%	4.0%	11.47	7.34	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	14	1	27	147	25	28	5	7%	1.9	17.0%	19.0%	-2.0%	3.4%	11.47	6.81	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	1	0	1	7	1	1	0	0%	1.3	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.70	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Dodgers	1	0	1	7	1	1	0	0%	1.3	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.70	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	ACL Dodgers	1	0	1	7	1	1	0	0%	1.3	14.3%	14.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	LAD	15	0	16	68	14	12	2	0%	1.1	20.7%	18.1%	2.6%	3.0%	5.68	5.68	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAD	24	0	25	106	23	16	3	0%	1.1	21.9%	15.2%	6.7%	3.0%	5.33	5.18	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAD	11	0	12	51	11	8	1	0%	1.1	21.9%	15.2%	6.7%	3.0%	5.33	5.18	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	52	11	8	2	0%	1.0	21.9%	15.2%	6.7%	3.0%	5.33	4.80	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	129	32	0%	1.1	21.9%	15.2%	6.7%	3.0%	5.33	4.80	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		15	1	28	154	18	36	6	7%	1.9	11.7%	23.4%	-11.7%	3.8%	10.93	7.18	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		107	7	200	1100	129	257	42	7%	1.9	11.7%	23.4%	-11.7%	3.8%	10.93	7.18	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Oliveira (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.68	20.7%	18.1%	3.0%	—	5.18	21.9%	6.7%	25	-0.50	—	—	—
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	87
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	87
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	86
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	86
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	86
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	85
Adilson Peralta R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	21	SU	5.29	20.9%	17.5%	3.2%	.316	5.11	18.7%	3.0%	83	-0.18	3.79	181	85
Jordy Luciano R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	21	SU	4.97	24.9%	22.3%	2.1%	.306	5.33	17.1%	-4.8%	80	+0.36	4.97	104	85
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	84
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	84
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	84
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	84
Connor Walsh R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	22	SU	4.76	23.3%	20.7%	1.8%	.288	3.98	21.3%	6.8%	151	-0.78	3.36	266	83
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	83
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	82
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	82
Yoel Espinal R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	22	SU	4.63	21.0%	21.4%	1.1%	.284	4.52	22.9%	5.6%	157	-0.11	3.86	231	82
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	81
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	81
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	81