Andres Arias

OF FCL Blue Jays

Age 20 R/R 6'4" / 180 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKTOR	183	.167/.290/.295	5	9	2	—	.104/.197/.183
2026	19	ROKTOR	183	.247/.393/.411	4	6	55	—	.164/.273/.264
2027PROJ0% MLB	20	MLBTOR	293	.188/.262/.279	4	5	54	-0.5
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBTOR	80	.194/.270/.295	1	1	60	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

ISO71

wRC+68

BB%65

Speed63

wOBA57

Chase%57

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsIsmael Alcantara (age 20) · Jose Cordoba (age 20) · Misael Urbina (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 154 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .260 / .276

PA154

HR2

K%29

BB%8

ISO91

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	69	55	17	6	0	0	11	15	2	3	1	309	435	418	853	109	425	22	16	388	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	156	26	3	1	5	21	57	6	9	2	167	290	295	584	128	223	31	11	275	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	146	36	8	2	4	32	42	4	6	1	247	393	411	804	164	320	23	17	366	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	69	59	12	4	0	0	8	19	2	3	1	203	319	271	590	68	291	28	12	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	164	17	2	1	3	13	82	6	9	2	104	197	183	380	79	168	45	7	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	159	26	5	1	3	20	60	4	6	1	164	273	264	537	101	246	33	11	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	69	59	12	4	0	0	8	19	2	3	1	203	319	271	590	68	300	28	12	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	69	55	17	6	0	0	11	15	2	3	1	309	435	418	853	109	425	22	16	388	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	164	17	2	1	3	13	82	6	9	2	104	197	183	380	79	177	45	7	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	156	26	3	1	5	21	57	6	9	2	167	290	295	584	128	223	31	11	275	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	159	26	5	1	3	20	60	4	6	1	164	273	264	537	101	240	33	11	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	146	36	8	2	4	32	42	4	6	1	247	393	411	804	164	320	23	17	366	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	69	59	12	4	0	0	8	19	2	3	1	203	319	271	590	68	291	28	12	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	162	17	2	1	3	13	82	6	9	2	105	197	185	382	80	168	45	7	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	157	26	5	1	3	20	60	4	6	1	166	273	268	541	102	246	33	11	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	69	59	12	4	0	0	8	19	2	3	1	203	319	271	590	68	291	28	12	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	162	17	2	1	3	13	82	6	9	2	105	197	185	382	80	168	45	7	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	157	26	5	1	3	20	60	4	6	1	166	273	268	541	102	246	33	11	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	293	264	50	9	2	4	23	85	4	5	1	188	262	279	541	91	257	29	8	248	54	-16	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	TOR	34%	233	209	40	7	1	4	19	66	3	4	1	193	269	294	562	100	260	28	8	257	60	-11	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.7
2028	21	MLB CTX	TOR	34%	80	73	15	3	1	1	6	23	1	1	0	194	270	295	564	101	261	29	8	258	60	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	80	73	15	3	1	1	6	23	1	1	0	205	275	315	590	110	286	29	8	258	45	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	121	24	8	8	49	187	8	8	0	204	274	312	586	108	284	29	8	258	45	-31	+2	+0	-4	+14	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	822	730	121	23	4	12	72	271	17	25	6	166	256	258	514	92	243	33	9	235	45	-19	+1	+0	-2	+8	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	95	18	3	9	57	214	13	20	5	165	255	253	508	88	242	33	9	235	45	-33	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sam Fuld'07-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,535 PA	2.3	1,535	12	67	230*	314*	336*	-10	+29	3.7	4.0
/162	664	5	29	-4.3	+12.7	1.6	pk7: 4
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
#5Dave McCarty'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,647 PA	2.5	1,647	36	9	233*	295*	365*	-26	+16	-1.1	0.5
/162	664	15	4	-10.5	+6.6	-0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	234	3	4	190	263	285	-1	+0	-0.7	-0.4
/162	664	9	12	-4.0	+0.0	-2.0	pk7: 0
#6Howie Schultz'43-'48 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	24	15	233*	271*	383*	-30	-2	-3.6	-3.6
/162	664	9	6	-11.8	-0.7	-1.4	pk7: -4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andres Arias (OGILVIE)	20	20	35	50	40	186/260/276	90	257	2	3	29%	8%	54	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	36→30	38→45	50	43	177/250/254	77	257	5	13	32%	7%	45	-2.7	207/272/309	102	322	8	15	36%	7%	65	-1.2	191/253/307	116	283	12	16	35%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→40	44→55	40	185/250/278	93	262	9	9	32%	6%	50	-2.3	205/259/296	91	278	6	11	27%	6%	57	-1.8	203/257/294	91	267	4	15	24%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Misael Urbina 2022 · A	20	37→32	39→40	51→50	49	180/260/269	89	230	6	13	24%	8%	53	-2.1	179/254/271	92	260	6	10	31%	8%	50	-2.3	166/253/247	81	240	5	8	30%	10%	42	-1.7
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	36	39→40	51→50	40	181/244/269	88	257	7	13	31%	6%	46	-2.6	196/262/273	77	311	7	10	36%	7%	53	-2.1	190/263/263	73	291	8	10	35%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	37→42	39→40	48→50	44	183/255/263	80	245	6	10	27%	7%	49	-2.4	199/291/294	95	292	8	8	32%	10%	70	-0.8	186/290/280	94	280	9	10	33%	11%	66	-0.7
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	40→39	40	52→50	42	194/257/287	92	271	7	14	30%	6%	55	-2.0	204/277/282	78	309	4	8	32%	9%	61	-1.5	194/278/266	72	301	3	7	33%	10%	55	-1.3
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	39	36→40	50→55	44	186/249/258	71	249	3	12	26%	7%	45	-2.7	204/271/288	84	283	7	19	28%	7%	60	-1.6	202/282/289	86	263	10	29	26%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A	19	33	38→40	47→60	44	164/228/238	74	214	6	13	26%	7%	33	-3.6	203/257/270	67	260	5	19	22%	6%	50	-2.3	211/263/264	53	270	3	24	22%	5%	49	-0.7
✕Nelson Medina 2021 · A	20	37	39→45	48→50	41	176/252/260	84	283	6	10	37%	8%	47	-2.5	192/274/286	94	292	6	14	33%	9%	61	-1.5	139/214/211	72	250	5	19	43%	8%	20	-1.4
✕George Feliz 2023 · A	20	34	39→45	54→45	38	169/229/251	81	271	6	13	38%	7%	36	-3.4	173/235/269	96	305	10	11	44%	6%	42	-2.9	160/223/268	108	267	13	9	43%	6%	36	-1.2
✕Anderson De Los Santos 2024 · A	20	39→38	40	43→50	40	192/247/282	89	269	7	8	30%	6%	49	-2.4	183/261/280	97	274	9	12	34%	9%	55	-1.9	173/266/275	101	253	10	13	33%	10%	53	-1.5
✕Yordyn Calderon 2013 · A	19	33	39→45	46→50	43	168/240/251	83	236	7	10	31%	7%	41	-3.0	191/266/296	105	275	9	11	32%	7%	61	-1.5	185/266/298	114	262	10	13	31%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Angel Solarte 2021 · A	20	40	39→40	49→45	40	194/242/280	86	262	6	7	28%	5%	47	-2.6	218/271/285	67	323	3	9	31%	6%	59	-1.7	217/273/273	55	326	2	10	32%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Enger Jimenez 2015 · A	20	36	38→40	48→50	41	176/230/258	82	234	5	9	26%	5%	38	-3.2	196/253/274	78	249	4	10	22%	6%	49	-2.4	189/247/262	73	232	3	14	19%	6%	42	-1.5
✕Albertson Asigen 2022 · A	20	41	38→40	53→55	45	197/253/283	86	255	5	6	24%	7%	51	-2.2	212/290/283	71	299	4	17	27%	9%	66	-1.1	209/299/294	85	336	7	27	36%	9%	69	-0.3
✕Arturo Guerrero 2021 · A	20	37	38→30	52→50	40	178/273/258	80	272	6	9	34%	7%	56	-1.9	177/253/265	88	320	6	11	44%	6%	49	-2.4	137/218/227	89	269	7	13	48%	6%	27	-0.9
✕Carlos Pacheco 2019 · A	20	33	38→40	45→50	42	164/238/238	74	255	6	9	36%	8%	36	-3.3	186/243/271	85	320	7	9	41%	7%	45	-2.7	155/211/244	89	272	9	10	44%	6%	26	-1.3
✕Raddy Sierra 2008 · A	20	40	39→40	51→55	42	193/266/277	84	278	6	17	31%	7%	56	-1.9	205/267/288	83	304	6	13	32%	6%	59	-1.7	207/262/261	54	318	0	16	32%	5%	48	-0.5
✕Leonel Espinoza 2023 · A	20	37→45	39→40	50→55	44	182/256/262	80	244	7	11	27%	7%	49	-2.4	209/274/296	87	297	6	14	30%	6%	63	-1.4	209/269/290	80	296	6	18	30%	6%	56	-1.0
✕Yeuris Ramirez 2019 · A	20	32	38→40	47→50	42	158/250/236	79	240	5	8	34%	8%	42	-2.9	190/270/285	95	312	8	13	39%	7%	60	-1.6	159/240/237	78	323	8	23	49%	7%	35	-1.2

Andres Arias

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps