Tyler Renz — OGILVIE

Tyler Renz P Wilson Warbirds

Age 19 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.2 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 116

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%14.8%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%3.6%

ROS IP51

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	73	307	67	25	5	71%	4.3	15.3%	10.0%	5.3%	2.2%	3.19	4.30	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	73	307	67	25	5	71%	4.3	15.3%	10.0%	5.3%	2.2%	3.19	4.30	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	12	73	307	67	25	5	71%	4.3	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	1.6%	3.19	3.18	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	25	15	97	426	87	60	10	60%	3.9	15.1%	16.6%	-1.5%	3.1%	4.72	5.60	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	25	15	97	426	87	60	10	60%	3.9	15.1%	16.6%	-1.5%	3.1%	4.72	5.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A RAW	MIL	25	15	97	426	87	60	10	60%	3.9	20.4%	14.1%	6.3%	2.3%	4.72	4.45	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	100	423	69	45	12	100%	6.3	16.4%	10.6%	5.8%	2.9%	5.06	5.01	-0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	105	444	77	45	12	100%	6.2	17.4%	10.2%	7.2%	2.8%	4.90	4.84	+0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	110	466	87	45	13	100%	6.5	18.6%	9.7%	8.9%	2.8%	4.74	4.65	+0.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	114	483	94	45	13	100%	6.4	19.4%	9.3%	10.1%	2.7%	4.60	4.51	+0.5
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	117	496	99	45	13	100%	6.5	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	2.7%	4.49	4.42	+0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	119	502	102	45	13	100%	6.3	20.4%	9.0%	11.4%	2.7%	4.41	4.36	+0.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	119	502	103	45	13	100%	6.3	20.6%	8.9%	11.6%	2.7%	4.37	4.34	+0.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	117	494	102	45	13	100%	6.5	20.5%	9.0%	11.5%	2.7%	4.38	4.38	+0.7
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	114	480	98	44	14	100%	6.3	20.4%	9.2%	11.3%	2.8%	4.43	4.46	+0.6
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	108	458	92	43	14	100%	6.4	20.2%	9.4%	10.8%	3.0%	4.53	4.60	+0.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	102	431	85	42	14	100%	6.4	19.8%	9.7%	10.1%	3.2%	4.68	4.77	+0.2
2038	31	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	95	402	78	40	14	100%	6.3	19.4%	10.0%	9.4%	3.4%	4.86	4.98	-0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	49	207	34	22	6	100%	6.1	16.4%	10.6%	5.8%	3.0%	5.14	5.09	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	77	325	57	33	10	100%	6.4	17.4%	10.2%	7.2%	2.9%	4.98	4.92	+0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	93	393	73	38	11	100%	6.2	18.6%	9.7%	8.9%	2.9%	4.82	4.73	+0.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	103	435	84	41	12	100%	6.4	19.4%	9.3%	10.1%	2.9%	4.67	4.58	+0.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	108	456	91	41	13	100%	6.4	20.0%	9.1%	10.9%	2.8%	4.56	4.49	+0.6
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	111	469	95	42	13	100%	6.5	20.4%	9.0%	11.4%	2.8%	4.48	4.43	+0.7
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	113	477	98	43	13	100%	6.3	20.6%	8.9%	11.6%	2.8%	4.44	4.41	+0.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	111	469	96	42	13	100%	6.5	20.5%	9.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.45	4.45	+0.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	108	456	93	42	14	100%	6.4	20.4%	9.2%	11.3%	3.0%	4.51	4.54	+0.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	103	435	88	41	14	100%	6.4	20.2%	9.4%	10.8%	3.1%	4.61	4.68	+0.4
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	97	410	81	40	14	100%	6.5	19.8%	9.7%	10.1%	3.3%	4.77	4.86	+0.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	90	380	74	38	14	100%	6.4	19.4%	10.0%	9.4%	3.6%	4.95	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		183	183	1164	4913	966	463	147	100%	6.4	19.7%	9.4%	10.2%	3.0%	4.66	4.27	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	166	80	25	100%	6.4	19.7%	9.4%	10.2%	3.0%	4.66	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		42	27	171	733	111	101	20	64%	4.1	15.2%	13.8%	1.3%	2.7%	4.06	5.06	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	32	200	859	130	119	23	64%	4.1	15.2%	13.8%	1.3%	2.7%	4.06	5.06	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Renz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	14.8%	11.2%	2.9%	—	4.83	17.5%	7.4%	316	-0.41	—	—	—
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	89
Gerson Calzadilla R 2022 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	12.6%	11.6%	3.0%	.287	3.36	17.0%	8.3%	37	-1.78	3.36	130	89
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	87
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	87
Steven Fuentes R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	18	SP-	4.60	12.1%	10.1%	2.3%	.319	3.85	16.7%	10.2%	131	-0.75	2.38	359	87
Joel Díaz R 2022 · 5.45 FIP	18	SP-	5.45	15.3%	11.9%	3.9%	.335	4.86	16.2%	8.2%	174	-0.59	1.98	328	87
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	86
Gerardo Bojorquez R 2017 · 5.76 FIP	19	SP-	5.76	12.1%	11.1%	4.1%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	5.12	102	85
Sal Biasi R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	16.0%	12.6%	2.5%	.230	5.59	18.5%	5.0%	109	+0.91	4.68	188	85
Wilfredo Pereira R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	19	SP-	4.67	10.8%	9.4%	2.3%	.330	3.73	21.4%	11.0%	123	-0.94	2.26	608	85
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	85
Alejandro Manzano R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP-	4.89	14.8%	8.6%	3.5%	.347	4.81	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.08	4.28	273	85
Donny Troconis R 2023 · 5.31 FIP	17	SP-	5.31	16.0%	9.4%	4.3%	.293	5.06	14.9%	2.2%	180	-0.25	3.15	224	85
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	84
Erik Manoah Jr. R 2015 · 5.67 FIP	19	SP-	5.67	12.9%	13.1%	3.7%	.269	5.64	14.5%	-0.3%	220	-0.03	3.47	322	84
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	84
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	84
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	84
Anthony Escobar R 2019 · 4.44 FIP	18	SP-	4.44	15.1%	9.7%	2.5%	.263	5.33	14.2%	-3.5%	23	+0.89	3.07	122	84
Victor Munoz R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	18	SP-	4.33	14.4%	12.6%	1.6%	.273	3.63	14.1%	7.7%	107	-0.70	2.18	260	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.9	106	19.3%	9.5%	1.10	4.63
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88