Tyler Renz
P
Wilson Warbirds
Age 19
RHP
6'4" / 180 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 1.3 · 2032
2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 51 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 121
ERA5.33
FIP5.33
K%14.8%
BB%11.9%
K-BB%2.9%
ROS IP51
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 12 | 73 | 307 | 67 | 25 | 5 | 71% | 4.3 | 15.3% | 10.0% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 3.19 | 4.30 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 12 | 73 | 307 | 67 | 25 | 5 | 71% | 4.3 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 13.7% | 1.6% | 3.19 | 3.18 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | A | Wilson Warbirds | 17 | 11 | 64 | 281 | 59 | 42 | 9 | 65% | 3.7 | 15.5% | 17.6% | -2.1% | 4.2% | 4.81 | 6.31 | -1.3 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | MIL | 9 | 9 | 51 | 217 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 14.8% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.33 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.8% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 5.30 | 5.30 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 115 | 498 | 91 | 68 | 15 | — | — | 18.3% | 13.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 5.87 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | MIL | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 38 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.5% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 5.14 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 57 | 239 | 42 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.6% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.98 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 251 | 47 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.8% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.81 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 260 | 51 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.58 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 54 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.49 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 56 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.6% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 56 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 55 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.44 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | MIL | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 16.5% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 5.11 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | MIL | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 30 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.6% | 10.9% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 4.95 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 40 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.8% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.78 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 46 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.64 | 4.55 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 49 | 24 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.53 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 52 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.45 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 54 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.8% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 4.41 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 53 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 69 | 412 | 1738 | 342 | 175 | 46 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.17 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 85 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.61 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 34 | 23 | 137 | 588 | 90 | 80 | 19 | 68% | 4.0 | 15.4% | 13.6% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.94 | 5.26 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 34 | 200 | 858 | 132 | 117 | 27 | 68% | 4.0 | 15.4% | 13.6% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.94 | 5.26 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Renz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.33 | 14.8% | 11.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.90 | 17.7% | 6.9% | 170 | -0.43 | — | — | — |
| Christian Fernandez R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 324 | 90 |
| Gerson Calzadilla R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.96 | 12.6% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .287 | 3.43 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 37 | -1.53 | 3.43 | 130 | 90 |
| Jairo Garcia R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.47 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.25 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 96 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 148 | 89 |
| Nolberto Henriquez R 2028 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.75 | 16.0% | 13.4% | 2.4% | .305 | 5.43 | 11.3% | -3.1% | 52 | +0.68 | 4.75 | 108 | 87 |
| Abel Duarte R 2028 · 4.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.84 | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 3.93 | 13.9% | 6.7% | 79 | -0.91 | 3.19 | 127 | 86 |
| Reibyn Corona R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.94 | 17.0% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .290 | 5.61 | 14.5% | 1.7% | 63 | +0.67 | 4.38 | 190 | 86 |
| Joel Díaz R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 18 | SP- | 5.57 | 15.3% | 11.9% | 4.1% | .335 | 5.17 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 174 | -0.40 | 1.98 | 308 | 86 |
| Gage Stanifer R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.77 | 16.6% | 14.9% | 2.2% | .342 | 4.31 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 230 | -0.46 | 2.92 | 273 | 86 |
| Erik Manoah Jr. R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.67 | 12.9% | 13.1% | 3.7% | .269 | 5.62 | 14.5% | -0.3% | 220 | -0.05 | 3.44 | 322 | 85 |
| Sal Biasi R 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.68 | 16.0% | 12.6% | 2.5% | .230 | 5.55 | 18.5% | 5.0% | 109 | +0.87 | 4.68 | 188 | 85 |
| Victor Munoz R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.33 | 14.4% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .273 | 3.64 | 14.1% | 7.7% | 107 | -0.69 | 2.18 | 260 | 85 |
| Steven Fuentes R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.60 | 12.1% | 10.1% | 2.3% | .319 | 3.98 | 16.7% | 10.2% | 131 | -0.62 | 2.36 | 359 | 85 |
| Miguel Vinicio R 2026 · 5.69 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.69 | 13.8% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 1.4% | 47 | -1.71 | 3.63 | 164 | 85 |
| Jeury Espinal R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.08 | 11.7% | 12.6% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 114 | 85 |
| Angel Rondón R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.62 | 14.4% | 11.7% | 2.3% | .311 | 4.20 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 219 | -0.42 | 2.66 | 447 | 85 |
| Bryan Polanco R 2027 · 5.33 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.33 | 18.2% | 14.3% | 3.5% | .248 | 5.50 | 13.0% | 1.2% | 243 | +0.17 | 5.24 | 347 | 85 |
| Wilfredo Pereira R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.67 | 10.8% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .330 | 3.67 | 21.4% | 11.0% | 123 | -1.00 | 2.26 | 608 | 84 |
| Darwin Ramos R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.61 | 13.5% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .308 | 3.81 | 15.1% | 4.5% | 152 | -0.80 | 3.35 | 262 | 84 |
| Gerardo Bojorquez R 2026 · 5.76 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.76 | 12.1% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.12 | 102 | 84 |
| Luis Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.96 | 12.8% | 12.5% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.96 | 111 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 60 | 19.0% | 10.3% | 1.06 | 4.74 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |