Tyler Renz

P Wilson Warbirds

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.9 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1244ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	MIX2 levels	17	12	73	3.19	3.18	21.8%	8.1%	—	K 15.3% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.30
2026	19	AMIL	25	15	97	4.72	4.50	20.4%	14.1%	—	K 15.1% · BB 16.6% · FIP 5.60
2027PROJ	20	MLBMIL	—	—	0	5.97	5.97	13.5%	15.8%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBMIL	5	5	33	5.73	5.63	15.4%	14.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBMIL	8	8	50	5.42	5.28	17.2%	12.6%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control50Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 3.6, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 88%

CompsDenis Diaz (age 20) · Josh Swales (age 20) · Nolberto Henriquez (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147138vR 130

ERA5.97

FIP5.97

K%13.5%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%-2.3%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.1M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	73	307	67	25	5	71%	4.3	15.3%	10.0%	5.3%	2.2%	3.19	4.30	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	73	307	67	25	5	71%	4.3	15.3%	10.0%	5.3%	2.2%	3.19	4.30	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	12	73	307	67	25	5	71%	4.3	21.8%	8.1%	13.7%	1.6%	3.19	3.18	—
2026	19	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	25	15	97	426	87	60	10	60%	3.9	15.1%	16.6%	-1.5%	3.1%	4.72	5.60	—
2026	19	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	25	15	97	426	87	60	10	60%	3.9	15.1%	16.6%	-1.5%	3.1%	4.72	5.60	—
2026	19	A RAW	Wilson Warbirds	25	15	97	426	87	60	10	60%	3.9	20.4%	14.1%	6.3%	2.3%	4.72	4.50	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.5%	15.8%	-2.3%	3.0%	5.97	5.97	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	68	288	44	40	8	100%	6.2	15.4%	14.0%	1.4%	2.9%	5.65	5.55	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	68	288	49	36	8	100%	6.2	17.2%	12.6%	4.5%	2.9%	5.34	5.20	+0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	68	288	52	34	8	100%	6.2	18.2%	11.8%	6.4%	2.8%	5.11	4.98	+0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	68	288	54	32	8	100%	6.2	18.9%	11.3%	7.6%	2.8%	4.95	4.85	+0.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	61	259	50	29	7	100%	6.1	19.2%	11.1%	8.2%	2.8%	4.85	4.78	+0.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	61	259	50	29	7	100%	6.1	19.4%	11.0%	8.4%	2.8%	4.80	4.76	+0.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	60	253	49	28	7	100%	6.7	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	2.8%	4.80	4.80	+0.4
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	57	242	47	27	7	100%	6.4	19.3%	11.2%	8.1%	2.9%	4.85	4.88	+0.3
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	54	228	43	26	7	100%	6.7	19.1%	11.5%	7.6%	3.1%	4.95	5.01	+0.2
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	50	209	39	25	7	100%	6.2	18.7%	11.8%	6.9%	3.3%	5.10	5.19	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	33	139	21	20	4	100%	6.6	15.4%	14.0%	1.4%	3.1%	5.73	5.63	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	50	211	36	27	6	100%	6.2	17.2%	12.6%	4.5%	3.0%	5.42	5.28	+0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	57	241	44	28	7	100%	6.3	18.2%	11.8%	6.4%	3.0%	5.19	5.06	+0.3
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	61	258	49	29	8	100%	6.1	18.9%	11.3%	7.6%	2.9%	5.03	4.93	+0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	56	236	46	26	7	100%	6.2	19.2%	11.1%	8.2%	2.9%	4.93	4.86	+0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	57	241	47	27	7	100%	6.3	19.4%	11.0%	8.4%	2.9%	4.88	4.84	+0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	57	241	47	27	7	100%	6.3	19.4%	11.1%	8.3%	3.0%	4.88	4.88	+0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	55	232	45	26	7	100%	6.1	19.3%	11.2%	8.1%	3.1%	4.93	4.96	+0.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	51	215	41	25	7	100%	6.4	19.1%	11.5%	7.6%	3.2%	5.03	5.09	+0.2
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	47	198	37	23	7	100%	6.7	18.7%	11.8%	6.9%	3.4%	5.19	5.28	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	82	524	2215	413	257	67	100%	6.4	18.6%	11.6%	7.0%	3.0%	5.09	4.67	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	157	98	26	100%	6.4	18.6%	11.6%	7.0%	3.0%	5.09	4.67	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		42	27	171	733	111	101	20	64%	4.1	15.2%	13.8%	1.3%	2.7%	4.06	5.06	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	32	200	859	130	119	23	64%	4.1	15.2%	13.8%	1.3%	2.7%	4.06	5.06	+0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AWilson Warbirds · 97 IPFIP 4.45 → 5.60 (+1.16)K% 20.4% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.42%	—	×0.740	15.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.08%	—	×1.180	16.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.05%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.45 → 5.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Brewers · 54 IPFIP 3.19 → 4.38 (+1.18)K% 20.3% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.26%	—	×0.680	13.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.61%	—	×1.250	8.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷0.971	×1.400	2.54%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 19 IPFIP 3.15 → 4.06 (+0.91)K% 26.2% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.25%	—	×0.740	19.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.180	14.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.25%	÷1.214	×1.300	1.34%

Result: FIP 3.15 → 4.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Renz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.97	13.5%	15.8%	3.0%	—	5.24	16.9%	4.1%	204	-0.73	—	—	—
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	87
Josh Swales R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	11.8%	14.6%	2.9%	.356	5.64	15.1%	1.4%	66	+0.13	5.51	129	87
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	86
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	85
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	85
Erik Manoah Jr. R 2015 · 5.67 FIP	19	SP-	5.67	12.9%	13.1%	3.7%	.269	5.64	14.5%	-0.3%	220	-0.03	3.47	322	84
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	83
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	83
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	83
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.43	19.5%	8.9%	150	-0.98	3.60	209	83
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	83
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.11	333	83
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	83
Luis Alecis R 2017 · 5.17 FIP	20	SP-	5.17	15.0%	17.6%	2.0%	.289	4.12	17.9%	2.6%	59	-1.05	3.60	229	83
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	82
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	82
Jefferson Medina R 2015 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP-	5.12	13.1%	16.1%	2.0%	.279	3.89	14.1%	2.6%	187	-1.23	3.56	350	82
Moises Ruiz R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	8.7%	12.8%	3.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	104	82
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	82
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	62	17.9%	12.2%	1.12	5.14
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Ed Farmer ('71-'83, -2 WAR*)	3.1	69	21.3%*	12.2%*	1.03*	4.71*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*