Tyler Renz
P
Wilson Warbirds
+0.2
WAR
Age 19
RHP
6'4" / 180 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 3.0 · 2033
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.9%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.3%
IP73
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.0peak
2033
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 17 | 12 | 73 | 307 | 67 | 25 | 5 | 15.3% | 10.0% | 2.3% | 3.19 | 4.31 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | A | Wilson Warbirds | 3 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 12 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.90 | — | — |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 68 | 30 | 9 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 19 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 83 | 348 | 80 | 37 | 9 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.02 | 3.91 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | MIL | 14 | 14 | 77 | 325 | 73 | 30 | 9 | 22.5% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.31 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 81 | 342 | 78 | 30 | 10 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.20 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 107 | 451 | 107 | 38 | 12 | 23.8% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.04 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 131 | 553 | 135 | 44 | 15 | 24.5% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 3.92 | +2.0 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 27 | 27 | 150 | 634 | 159 | 49 | 17 | 25.0% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.83 | +2.5 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 30 | 30 | 164 | 693 | 176 | 53 | 19 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.77 | +2.8 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 31 | 31 | 171 | 722 | 185 | 55 | 19 | 25.6% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 3.75 | +3.0 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 32 | 32 | 174 | 734 | 188 | 56 | 20 | 25.6% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.77 | 3.76 | +3.0 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 31 | 31 | 173 | 731 | 187 | 56 | 20 | 25.6% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 3.79 | +3.0 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 31 | 31 | 169 | 715 | 182 | 55 | 20 | 25.4% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.81 | 3.83 | +2.8 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 30 | 30 | 164 | 693 | 175 | 54 | 20 | 25.2% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.90 | +2.6 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 29 | 29 | 158 | 669 | 167 | 53 | 19 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 3.93 | 3.97 | +2.4 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 28 | 28 | 152 | 643 | 159 | 52 | 19 | 24.7% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.01 | 4.06 | +2.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 20 | 14 | 83 | 346 | 59 | 38 | 7 | 17.0% | 10.9% | 2.0% | 2.92 | 4.14 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 34 | 200 | 830 | 142 | 91 | 17 | 17.0% | 10.9% | 2.0% | 2.92 | 4.14 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Renz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.17 | 23.1% | 14.4% | 265 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Reggie Lawson R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.72 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 3.1% | .313 | 4.65 | 18.5% | 7.2% | 145 | -0.07 | 4.06 | 293 | 91 |
| Yimmi Brasoban R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.90 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .261 | 4.36 | 16.7% | 5.3% | 78 | +0.46 | 3.33 | 149 | 88 |
| Marco Raya R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.77 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .250 | 4.42 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 254 | -0.35 | 3.98 | 319 | 88 |
| José López R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.79 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.25 | 3.12 | 543 | 88 |
| Jairo Garcia R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.47 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.25 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 96 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 148 | 87 |
| John Klein R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.53 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .287 | 3.72 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 207 | -0.81 | 3.22 | 260 | 87 |
| Frank German R 2028 · 4.99 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.99 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.60 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 123 | -0.39 | 3.09 | 218 | 87 |
| Yohanse Morel R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.75 | 17.0% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .350 | 5.16 | 16.2% | 2.7% | 96 | +0.41 | 3.33 | 263 | 86 |
| Christian Fernandez R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.50 | 17.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 324 | 86 |
| Ruben Galindo R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.76 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .345 | 3.50 | 19.0% | 7.7% | 149 | -1.26 | 2.83 | 239 | 86 |
| Coleman Crow R 2027 · 4.97 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.97 | 16.0% | 11.9% | 3.1% | .323 | 4.39 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 152 | -0.58 | 2.34 | 273 | 86 |
| Victor Garcia R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.06 | 16.5% | 11.1% | 1.7% | .325 | 3.41 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.65 | 3.41 | 134 | 86 |
| Jordy Vargas R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.72 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .305 | 6.47 | 20.7% | 1.7% | 31 | +2.75 | 3.02 | 181 | 86 |
| Tanner Hall R 2029 · 4.71 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.71 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 3.2% | .295 | 5.34 | 10.1% | -4.6% | 72 | +0.63 | 4.71 | 137 | 86 |
| Edgar Moreta R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.90 | 16.3% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .269 | 5.11 | 17.7% | 9.2% | 117 | +1.21 | 3.90 | 170 | 85 |
| Yoelvin Silven R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.94 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.88 | 17.9% | 12.6% | 88 | +0.94 | 3.94 | 254 | 85 |
| Shane Davis R 2028 · 5.20 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.20 | 17.3% | 9.8% | 4.2% | .313 | 4.20 | 20.9% | 6.7% | 55 | -1.00 | 4.20 | 129 | 85 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2029 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 3.40 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.57 | 2.58 | 408 | 85 |
| Miguel Castro R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.68 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .290 | 4.62 | 14.5% | 4.9% | 207 | -0.06 | 3.35 | 554 | 85 |
| Tyler Schlaffer R 2027 · 5.15 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.15 | 16.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .344 | 5.19 | 17.2% | 4.5% | 154 | +0.04 | 4.39 | 313 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.5 | $23M | +$22M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +2.8 | $27M | +$26M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +3.0 | $30M | +$29M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +3.0 | $30M | +$26M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +3.0 | $31M | +$23M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $16M | $141M | +$126M | ||