Jesus Oliveira — OGILVIE

Jesus Oliveira P ACL Royals

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.53

FIP5.53

K%19.1%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%3.8%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	2	0	3	12	1	4	0	0%	1.3	8.3%	33.3%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.62	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	2	0	3	12	1	4	0	0%	1.3	8.3%	33.3%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.62	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	2	0	3	12	1	4	0	0%	1.3	8.3%	33.3%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.85	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	22	96	17	18	2	0%	2.0	12.0%	23.4%	-11.4%	2.9%	4.91	6.66	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	22	96	17	18	2	0%	2.0	12.0%	23.4%	-11.4%	2.9%	4.91	6.66	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	0	22	96	17	18	2	0%	2.0	17.7%	18.8%	-1.0%	2.1%	4.91	5.19	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	0	21	96	16	11	5	0%	1.7	11.3%	14.3%	-3.0%	7.8%	7.40	8.22	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	0	21	96	16	11	5	0%	1.7	11.3%	14.3%	-3.0%	7.8%	7.40	8.22	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	12	0	21	96	16	11	5	0%	1.7	16.7%	11.5%	5.2%	5.2%	7.40	6.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	20	2	45	213	67	43	6	10%	2.2	21.8%	24.6%	-2.8%	3.9%	6.65	6.52	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	20	2	45	213	67	43	6	10%	2.2	21.8%	24.6%	-2.8%	3.9%	6.65	6.52	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	KC	13	2	32	151	51	25	5	15%	2.5	33.8%	16.6%	17.2%	3.3%	6.40	4.16	—
2026	21	A RAW	KC	7	0	12	62	16	18	1	0%	1.8	25.8%	29.0%	-3.2%	1.6%	7.30	5.48	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	KC	44	0	46	194	40	26	6	0%	1.0	20.7%	13.2%	7.5%	3.1%	5.21	5.08	-0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	KC	45	0	48	201	43	24	6	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.8%	9.8%	3.0%	4.94	4.80	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	KC	22	0	23	97	20	13	3	0%	1.0	20.7%	13.2%	7.5%	3.1%	5.21	5.08	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	KC	33	0	35	148	32	17	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	11.8%	9.8%	3.0%	4.94	4.80	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	0	57	242	51	30	7	0%	1.0	21.3%	12.4%	8.9%	3.0%	5.05	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	105	24	0%	1.1	21.3%	12.4%	8.9%	3.0%	5.05	4.53	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		45	2	90	417	70	93	19	4%	2.0	16.8%	22.2%	-5.5%	4.5%	6.20	6.94	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	4	200	927	155	206	41	4%	2.0	16.8%	22.2%	-5.5%	4.5%	6.20	6.94	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Oliveira (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.53	19.1%	15.3%	3.1%	—	4.94	21.2%	8.7%	94	-0.59	—	—	—
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	88
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	87
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	86
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	86
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	86
Justin Kelly R 2021 · 5.93 FIP	22	SU	5.93	15.5%	14.3%	4.2%	.259	4.93	15.4%	6.8%	149	-1.00	3.17	196	85
Jonathan Jimenez R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	19	SU	5.41	16.4%	16.2%	3.0%	.333	5.09	14.1%	2.2%	178	-0.32	3.49	189	85
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	84
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	84
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	84
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	83
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	83
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	83
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	83
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	83
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	523	82
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	82
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	82
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	35	20.9%	12.8%	1.18	5.13
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78