Eli Lovich

OF Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 21 L/L 6'4" / 185 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	A/ROKCHC	300	.232/.307/.325	4	18	28	—	.175/.230/.240
2026	20	ACHC	431	.196/.316/.325	9	14	30	—	.139/.232/.223
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBCHC	541	.168/.244/.255	8	10	42	-1.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBCHC	130	.177/.254/.281	2	2	51	-0.6

Next 2 projected WAR -1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed68

BB%63

ISO49

Chase%49

wRC+35

wOBA27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsAaron Bracho (age 21) · Yerlin Confidan (age 21) · David Medina (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†42

AVG/OBP/SLG.166 / .242 / .253

PA210

HR3

K%40

BB%8

ISO87

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	200	182	39	2	2	2	18	68	0	8	1	214	285	280	565	66	330	34	9	262	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	100	89	24	5	1	2	9	20	2	10	3	270	350	416	766	146	328	20	9	344	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	431	363	71	14	3	9	59	144	5	14	2	196	316	325	641	129	292	33	14	295	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	200	188	30	1	1	1	12	97	0	8	1	160	210	191	401	32	327	48	6	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	100	92	19	4	1	2	6	30	2	10	3	207	270	337	607	130	269	30	6	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	431	381	53	10	2	6	41	196	5	14	2	139	232	223	455	84	255	45	10	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	300	281	49	5	2	3	17	126	2	18	4	174	227	238	465	64	303	42	6	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	300	271	63	7	3	4	27	88	2	18	4	232	307	325	631	92	330	29	9	289	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	431	381	53	10	2	6	41	196	5	14	2	139	232	223	455	84	260	45	10	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	431	363	71	14	3	9	59	144	5	14	2	196	316	325	641	129	292	33	14	295	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	300	278	49	5	2	3	17	126	2	18	4	176	227	241	468	65	308	42	6	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	431	382	53	10	2	6	41	196	5	14	2	139	232	223	454	84	255	45	10	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	300	278	49	5	2	3	17	126	2	18	4	176	227	241	468	65	308	42	6	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	431	382	53	10	2	6	41	196	5	14	2	139	232	223	454	84	255	45	10	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CHC	0%	541	487	82	14	3	8	45	215	4	10	2	168	244	255	499	87	276	40	8	231	42	-37	+1	-4	-3	+12	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CHC	34%	377	339	60	10	2	7	32	146	3	7	1	176	252	279	531	103	279	39	8	243	51	-22	+1	-2	-2	+8	-1.8
2028	22	MLB CTX	CHC	34%	130	117	21	4	1	2	11	50	1	2	0	177	254	281	535	104	282	38	8	245	51	-8	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	130	117	21	4	1	2	11	50	1	2	0	179	256	282	538	103	288	38	8	245	37	-8	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	105	20	5	10	55	250	5	10	0	179	256	282	538	103	288	38	8	245	37	-38	+2	-4	-4	+14	-3.0
Career	—	MLE		—	1318	1190	193	30	7	19	107	551	12	43	8	162	238	247	485	85	278	42	8	223	37	-36	+1	-4	-4	+13	-3.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	95	15	3	9	53	272	6	21	4	162	238	244	482	82	279	42	8	223	37	-40	+2	-4	-4	+14	-3.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 431 PAwOBA .289 → .212 (−77)K% 33.4% → 45.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.41%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	45.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.69%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.015	9.59%
HBP% /PA	1.16%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.92%
Singles /BIP	20.55%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.964	×1.015	18.49%
Doubles /BIP	6.39%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.964	×1.015	5.19%
Triples /BIP	1.37%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.964	×1.015	1.22%
Home runs /BIP	4.11%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.34%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .289 → .212; ISO .129 → .092; BABIP .292 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 200 PAwOBA .255 → .192 (−64)K% 34.0% → 48.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.00%	÷0.956	×1.360	—	—	48.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.00%	÷1.106	×0.690	—	×1.030	5.78%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.95%	÷0.990	×0.920	×1.048	×1.030	29.06%
Doubles /BIP	1.75%	÷0.968	×0.830	×1.048	×1.030	1.62%
Triples /BIP	1.75%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.048	×1.030	1.50%
Home runs /BIP	1.75%	÷0.925	×0.800	—	×1.030	1.56%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 91, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.

Result: wOBA .255 → .192; ISO .066 → .047; BABIP .330 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Cubs · 100 PAwOBA .335 → .245 (−90)K% 20.0% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.969	×1.440	—	—	29.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.00%	÷0.983	×0.620	—	×0.995	5.65%
HBP% /PA	2.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	1.43%
Singles /BIP	23.19%	÷1.004	×0.820	×1.044	×0.995	19.67%
Doubles /BIP	7.25%	÷0.973	×0.720	×1.044	×0.995	5.57%
Triples /BIP	1.45%	÷1.089	×0.720	×1.044	×0.995	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.90%	÷0.868	×0.780	—	×0.995	2.59%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 118, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.

Result: wOBA .335 → .245; ISO .146 → .109; BABIP .328 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#3Eric Anthony'89-'97 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,243 PA	3.4	2,243	78	24	225*	300*	410*	-22	-22	0.1	0.6
/162	664	23	7	-6.7	-6.6	0.0	pk7: 1
#4Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.5	340	5	6	172	245	265	-2	-4	-1.3	-0.7
/162	664	10	12	-4.0	-7.8	-2.6	pk7: 0
#5Jolbert Cabrera'98-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	18	38	247*	295*	354*	-3	-9	-1.1	-0.7
/162	664	8	16	-1.4	-4.0	-0.5	pk7: -0
#6Seth Brownlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,799 PA	2.7	1,799	74	24	227	293	421	-23	-34	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	27	9	-8.6	-12.4	-0.3	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Eli Lovich (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	166/242/253	87	276	3	4	40%	8%	42	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron Bracho 2022 · A	21	34→40	43→45	43→40	41	173/243/277	104	270	11	5	38%	8%	48	-2.5	187/254/305	118	266	13	4	33%	7%	58	-1.7	198/262/325	128	249	16	4	27%	7%	64	-0.7
✕Yerlin Confidan 2024 · A	21	38→44	42→45	42→50	38	186/242/296	111	285	9	5	36%	7%	51	-2.3	201/264/304	103	303	8	9	34%	8%	61	-1.5	202/268/305	103	295	9	10	32%	8%	60	-1.2
✕David Medina 2010 · A	21	37→42	38→45	42→40	41	179/246/255	76	279	6	4	36%	8%	43	-2.8	212/265/322	110	322	9	4	35%	6%	65	-1.2	201/250/318	117	307	9	2	36%	6%	55	-1.6
✕Gregory Duran 2024 · A	21	37	39→40	42→40	41	172/258/259	87	307	7	5	42%	9%	49	-2.4	182/249/274	92	333	8	6	44%	7%	49	-2.4	115/177/187	72	229	8	0	51%	6%	2	-1.5
✕Luis Mendez 2024 · A	21	38	38→40	47→50	43	182/254/259	77	275	6	10	34%	8%	47	-2.5	193/255/274	81	270	5	12	28%	7%	50	-2.3	187/247/263	77	253	5	13	27%	7%	43	-1.2
✕Jared Walker 2017 · A	21	37→32	40→55	44→45	37	179/240/268	89	303	8	7	41%	7%	44	-2.8	189/260/346	157	308	19	5	42%	7%	70	-0.8	174/258/341	167	276	21	5	42%	7%	66	-0.7
✕Leandro Emiliani 2022 · A	22	37	42→45	46→30	40	182/258/281	99	292	10	4	39%	8%	54	-2.0	184/245/292	108	284	10	3	37%	7%	51	-2.2	169/231/276	107	257	11	1	37%	6%	41	-1.6
✕Jake Skole 2013 · A	21	42→47	39→40	45→50	40	195/264/276	81	311	6	9	37%	8%	55	-2.0	189/258/269	80	281	6	9	32%	8%	51	-2.3	181/241/263	82	271	7	13	34%	7%	40	-1.7
✕Jordan Viars 2024 · A	21	39	40	48→45	39	189/262/280	91	285	8	7	35%	6%	56	-1.9	179/246/285	106	305	11	5	42%	6%	51	-2.3	145/215/250	105	253	13	2	46%	7%	30	-1.5
✕Alex Abbott 2016 · A	21	36	43→50	42→50	42	184/253/297	112	249	10	9	29%	7%	56	-1.9	178/242/266	88	278	7	5	36%	6%	45	-2.7	115/184/171	56	193	5	0	41%	6%	0	-2.1
✕Agustin Ruiz 2021 · A	21	41→37	37→50	46→40	39	191/254/271	79	303	4	4	36%	7%	49	-2.4	190/257/325	135	272	17	4	35%	7%	64	-1.3	170/247/299	129	231	15	2	33%	7%	54	-1.2
✕Kendall Coleman 2016 · A	21	37	40	44→40	41	181/250/271	90	286	8	4	37%	8%	49	-2.4	195/260/281	86	324	7	5	39%	8%	54	-2.0	161/232/221	60	282	7	2	42%	8%	27	-0.9
✕Garrett Spain 2022 · A	21	42→35	38→45	43→50	36	204/244/280	76	302	6	7	34%	5%	47	-2.5	182/247/287	105	276	10	10	35%	7%	51	-2.2	159/227/264	104	233	11	11	35%	7%	36	-2.0
✕David Denson 2016 · A	21	40→33	41→40	43→40	42	191/264/290	99	308	9	5	38%	9%	58	-1.7	190/258/285	95	305	9	5	37%	8%	55	-2.0	167/241/251	84	266	8	2	38%	9%	38	-2.4
✕Jacob Pearson 2019 · A	21	39	39→40	45→50	40	192/245/278	86	270	7	8	31%	6%	47	-2.5	194/249/286	92	266	7	11	28%	7%	51	-2.3	165/232/259	94	229	8	19	30%	7%	37	-1.2
✕Luis Montano 2021 · A	21	38	36→40	43→40	36	169/238/244	75	316	3	4	44%	7%	38	-3.2	202/253/307	105	334	8	6	39%	6%	57	-1.8	176/222/310	134	281	12	4	40%	6%	42	-0.6
✕Danyer Sanabria 2022 · A	20	33	39→45	48→45	35	170/215/251	81	265	7	7	38%	5%	30	-3.8	202/249/292	90	329	5	5	38%	6%	52	-2.2	202/246/298	97	321	5	3	37%	5%	48	-0.8
✕Nathan Mikolas 2015 · A	21	40	40	48→45	40	192/263/283	91	288	8	7	34%	7%	57	-1.8	207/266/297	90	302	8	6	32%	6%	60	-1.6	195/255/278	83	281	9	4	32%	6%	49	-0.7
✕Jose Colorado 2012 · A	21	41	38→40	45→55	36	193/243/284	91	311	4	6	38%	6%	47	-2.5	198/257/275	77	279	3	12	28%	7%	51	-2.2	195/265/270	75	255	2	18	23%	8%	52	-0.8
✕Eduardo Lopez 2023 · A	21	41	39→40	46→50	42	193/266/276	83	298	7	9	35%	8%	56	-1.9	191/257/299	108	283	10	11	34%	8%	57	-1.8	169/236/283	114	242	12	11	34%	8%	44	-1.0

Eli Lovich

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps