Yerlin Confidan — OGILVIE

Yerlin ConfidanCF Dayton Dragons

Age 23 L/L 6'4" / 170 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION522 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP274

ISO90

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$12M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	192	178	56	9	2	11	12	48	1	7	3	315	361	573	934	258	375	25	6	404	159	+14	+0	—	—	+4	1.8
2022	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	76	65	16	3	1	1	11	22	0	1	1	246	355	369	724	123	357	29	14	331	110	+1	-0	—	—	+2	0.2
2022	19	ROK	ACL Reds	—	27	22	5	2	0	1	5	9	0	0	3	227	370	455	825	227	333	33	19	368	135	+1	-1	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	264	239	47	17	4	3	23	70	2	1	3	197	273	339	612	142	265	27	9	276	73	-9	-1	—	—	+6	-0.4
2024	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	400	346	86	28	2	9	49	97	2	16	7	249	345	419	764	171	317	24	12	340	116	+8	+0	—	—	+9	1.7
2025	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	474	416	93	20	4	4	51	133	5	12	6	224	316	320	635	96	318	28	11	292	84	-9	+0	—	—	+10	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	192	183	40	6	1	7	7	70	1	7	3	219	251	377	628	158	306	36	4	274	72	-6	+0	—	—	+4	-0.2
2022	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	76	68	13	2	1	1	8	31	0	1	1	191	276	294	570	103	323	41	11	252	57	-4	-0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	27	24	3	1	0	1	3	13	0	0	3	125	222	292	514	167	246	48	11	228	40	-2	-1	—	—	+1	-0.3
2023	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	264	245	36	13	3	2	17	99	2	1	3	147	208	249	457	102	238	38	6	206	26	-23	-1	—	—	+6	-1.9
2024	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	400	358	75	24	2	7	37	139	2	16	7	209	287	346	634	137	310	35	9	276	73	-13	+0	—	—	+9	-0.4
2025	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	474	431	77	16	3	3	36	180	5	12	6	179	250	251	501	72	297	38	8	227	40	-34	+0	—	—	+10	-2.4
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	192	183	40	6	1	7	7	70	1	7	3	219	251	377	628	158	308	36	4	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	—	192	178	56	9	2	11	12	48	1	7	3	315	361	573	934	258	375	25	6	404	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	103	92	17	4	1	2	11	44	0	1	4	185	272	315	587	130	326	43	11	246	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	103	87	21	5	1	2	16	31	0	1	4	241	359	391	750	149	352	30	16	341	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	264	245	36	13	3	2	17	99	2	1	3	147	208	249	457	102	236	38	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	264	239	47	17	4	3	23	70	2	1	3	197	273	339	612	142	265	27	9	276	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	400	358	75	24	2	7	37	139	2	16	7	209	287	346	634	137	316	35	9	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	400	346	86	28	2	9	49	97	2	16	7	249	345	419	764	171	317	24	12	340	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	474	431	77	16	3	3	36	180	5	12	6	179	250	251	501	72	297	38	8	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	474	416	93	20	4	4	51	133	5	12	6	224	316	320	635	96	318	28	11	292	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	192	182	40	6	1	7	7	70	1	7	3	220	251	379	630	159	306	36	4	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	103	91	17	4	1	2	11	44	0	1	4	187	272	319	591	132	303	43	11	246	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	264	243	36	13	3	2	17	99	2	1	3	148	208	251	459	103	238	38	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	400	358	75	24	2	7	37	139	2	16	7	209	287	346	634	137	310	35	9	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	474	430	77	16	3	3	36	180	5	12	6	179	250	251	501	72	297	38	8	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	264	243	36	13	3	2	17	99	2	1	3	148	208	251	459	103	238	38	6	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	400	358	75	24	2	7	37	139	2	16	7	209	287	346	634	137	310	35	9	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	474	430	77	16	3	3	36	180	5	12	6	179	250	251	501	72	297	38	8	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	CIN	—	522	479	104	17	2	12	35	155	4	9	5	217	276	336	612	119	291	30	7	268	68	-20	-0	+0	+2	+11	-0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ RAW	CIN	—	316	275	69	13	1	7	35	69	3	6	3	251	342	382	724	131	307	22	11	326	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA RAW	CIN	—	206	189	50	8	1	8	15	51	1	3	2	265	322	444	766	180	321	25	7	338	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A+ MLE	CIN	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		271	30	10	254	58	-1	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	A+ MLE	CIN	—	532	488	105	17	2	12	36	158	4	9	5	215	275	332	607	117	289	30	7	268	68	-21	-0	-0	+2	+12	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	30%	517	470	97	18	2	12	38	157	4	7	4	206	271	330	601	123	276	30	7	268	67	-20	-0	-3	+2	+11	-1.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	44%	546	496	105	19	2	15	41	161	4	7	4	212	277	349	626	137	278	29	8	282	77	-15	-0	-3	+2	+12	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	51%	562	510	110	20	2	17	43	164	4	8	4	216	282	363	645	147	280	29	8	290	83	-12	+0	-3	+2	+12	-0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	52%	568	513	111	20	2	18	45	165	5	8	4	216	286	368	654	152	280	29	8	291	83	-11	+0	-3	+2	+12	0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	567	512	110	20	2	17	45	166	5	7	4	215	285	361	646	146	279	29	8	290	83	-12	-0	-4	+2	+12	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	559	505	109	20	2	17	45	164	4	7	3	216	285	364	650	149	278	29	8	288	81	-12	+0	-4	+2	+12	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	30%	157	143	31	6	1	4	12	48	1	2	1	217	282	357	639	140	279	31	8	268	67	-6	+0	-1	+1	+3	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	44%	242	220	48	9	1	7	18	71	2	3	2	218	283	364	647	145	282	29	7	282	77	-7	-0	-1	+1	+5	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	51%	285	259	57	10	1	10	22	83	2	4	2	220	286	382	668	162	283	29	8	291	83	-6	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	52%	298	271	60	11	1	10	23	87	2	4	2	221	287	380	667	159	283	29	8	292	83	-6	+0	-2	+1	+6	0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	302	273	60	11	1	10	24	88	2	4	2	220	288	377	665	158	283	29	8	291	83	-6	+0	-2	+1	+7	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	294	267	59	11	1	10	23	86	2	4	2	221	288	382	670	161	282	29	8	289	81	-7	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1578	1433	315	58	6	51	122	463	11	21	11	220	286	375	662	156	285	29	8	287	71	-37	-0	-9	+6	+34	-0.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	129	24	2	21	50	191	5	9	5	219	285	373	658	154	283	29	8	287	71	-15	-0	-4	+2	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4762	4324	888	180	22	117	366	1512	36	81	46	205	273	338	611	133	284	32	8	273	71	-83	-0	-20	+12	+72	-1.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	122	25	3	16	50	206	5	11	6	207	274	341	615	134	286	32	8	273	71	-16	-0	-4	+2	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.4	1,579	46	21	215	280	361	-9	+0	-0.4	-0.1
/162	664	19	9	-4.0	+0.0	-0.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yerlin Confidan (OGILVIE)	23	20→30	50→60	50→40	60	194/258/298	104	271	6	5	31%	7%	58	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Pérez 2016 · A	23	35	41→50	42→40	42	178/243/275	96	258	9	4	33%	7%	47	-2.6	210/262/307	97	279	8	3	26%	6%	61	-1.5	222/282/338	116	285	12	0	25%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Parker Meadows 2022 · A	22	36→46	42→55	43→55	40	183/242/280	97	259	10	9	32%	6%	47	-2.5	216/279/367	151	277	16	17	27%	8%	81	-0.1	222/289/387	165	276	18	21	26%	8%	87	+0.4
✕Anthony Seigler 2022 · A	23	41→39	42→45	44→55	45	197/273/305	109	295	9	6	34%	9%	65	-1.2	191/295/300	109	252	10	15	26%	12%	73	-0.6	219/309/345	126	268	10	25	21%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Randy Florentino 2023 · A	23	37	40→50	47→45	41	185/249/273	88	279	9	6	35%	8%	49	-2.4	200/248/288	88	265	8	6	26%	6%	51	-2.3	188/228/265	77	236	7	4	24%	5%	36	-1.0
✕Austin Davidson 2016 · A	23	38→43	42→45	41→45	44	191/259/294	102	229	11	8	22%	6%	57	-1.8	222/286/337	115	272	10	7	21%	7%	77	-0.3	230/293/352	123	279	10	6	21%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Richie Fecteau 2017 · A	23	39	36→45	44→40	49	186/257/257	72	243	2	6	23%	8%	48	-2.5	217/265/321	104	293	9	4	28%	5%	64	-1.3	218/262/328	110	297	10	2	29%	5%	63	-0.7
✕Nick Flair 2016 · A	23	38	40→55	44→40	40	189/242/284	96	274	7	5	33%	7%	48	-2.5	219/255/344	125	314	12	6	33%	4%	66	-1.1	235/252/384	149	329	15	4	33%	2%	72	-0.3
✕Tanner Allen 2022 · A	24	40	42→45	44→45	43	200/253/300	100	251	9	7	24%	6%	56	-1.9	203/258/301	98	251	9	7	22%	6%	58	-1.7	200/259/296	96	246	9	7	22%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Matthew Sweeney 2012 · AA	24	34→40	43→50	49→45	41	177/244/286	109	256	11	4	34%	7%	50	-2.3	202/259/311	109	280	9	6	30%	7%	61	-1.5	212/252/322	109	275	6	0	24%	5%	57	-0.4
✕Mike Papi 2016 · A	23	40→47	39→45	41→45	47	190/269/279	89	277	5	6	31%	10%	57	-1.8	208/287/323	115	283	11	5	28%	9%	74	-0.5	208/291/327	119	275	12	4	27%	10%	76	-0.3
✕Carson Blair 2013 · A	23	35	42→50	43→30	38	176/239/285	109	279	9	6	39%	7%	47	-2.5	200/272/335	135	323	12	4	38%	9%	72	-0.7	196/274/342	145	318	14	1	39%	9%	71	-0.4
✕Cole Armstrong 2007 · AA	23	39→36	40→50	42→30	43	194/241/283	89	246	8	3	24%	6%	47	-2.5	218/253/337	119	276	12	2	25%	4%	64	-1.3	225/277/348	122	271	15	1	22%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Drew Robinson 2015 · AAA	23	38→42	43→55	49→50	42	187/259/305	117	285	10	9	36%	8%	60	-1.6	199/274/355	156	282	17	12	33%	9%	77	-0.3	208/288/362	155	321	16	12	38%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Nick Maton 2021 · AA	24	43→42	41→50	45	44	209/271/304	95	284	8	9	28%	7%	63	-1.3	210/292/333	123	284	11	7	28%	9%	78	-0.3	208/300/350	141	261	16	4	25%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Christopher Familia 2022 · A	22	42	38→55	47→45	43	200/270/287	86	279	5	10	28%	7%	59	-1.6	215/282/373	158	275	20	5	29%	7%	84	+0.2	208/273/389	181	258	25	2	30%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Jason Vosler 2017 · AA	23	43→44	40→55	40	44	206/260/301	94	255	7	3	22%	6%	59	-1.7	205/269/348	143	269	17	2	30%	6%	74	-0.6	213/279/377	164	265	21	3	28%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Tristan Gray 2019 · A	23	38→35	47→50	42→40	39	197/247/339	142	273	14	6	33%	6%	63	-1.4	201/266/339	138	261	15	4	28%	7%	70	-0.8	198/254/329	130	265	15	3	30%	6%	62	-0.9
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→45	41→50	51→40	45	197/267/298	101	259	8	11	26%	7%	61	-1.5	220/278/357	137	292	15	6	29%	6%	79	-0.2	222/283/366	144	287	17	3	28%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Thomas Milone 2018 · A	23	41→45	36→45	44→55	41	195/252/262	68	277	3	11	29%	6%	47	-2.6	225/276/325	100	312	5	14	28%	6%	70	-0.9	237/293/354	117	331	7	17	29%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Skye Bolt 2017 · A	23	40→41	40→50	47→50	41	194/255/287	93	273	7	9	30%	6%	54	-2.0	201/262/330	129	290	12	10	33%	7%	66	-1.1	238/305/370	133	314	14	12	28%	8%	89	+0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps