Yerlin Confidan — OGILVIE

Yerlin ConfidanOF Dayton Dragons

Age 23 L/L 6'4" / 170 lbs A+ HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION354 act + 236 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.183 / .256 / .272

PA236

HR3

K%32

BB%8

BABIP267

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER60

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-10M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	192	183	40	6	1	7	7	71	1	7	3	219	251	377	628	158	311	37	4	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	192	178	56	9	2	11	12	48	1	7	3	315	361	573	934	258	375	25	6	404	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	2 teams	—	103	91	17	4	1	2	12	43	0	1	4	187	282	319	600	132	326	42	12	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	2 teams	—	103	87	21	5	1	2	16	31	0	1	4	241	359	391	750	149	352	30	16	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	264	245	35	12	3	2	17	98	2	1	3	143	205	241	445	98	228	37	6	197	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	264	239	47	17	4	3	23	70	2	1	3	197	273	339	612	142	265	27	9	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	400	357	74	23	2	6	38	141	2	16	7	207	287	333	620	126	319	35	10	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	400	346	86	28	2	9	49	97	2	16	7	249	345	419	764	171	317	24	12	340	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	474	431	80	18	4	2	36	180	5	12	6	186	256	260	516	74	312	38	8	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	474	416	93	20	4	4	51	133	5	12	6	224	316	320	635	96	318	28	11	292	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A+	CIN	—	354	321	67	12	1	6	27	109	3	7	3	209	276	308	585	100	292	31	8	261	58	-17	+0	+0	-2	+10	-0.9
YTD	23	A+	CIN	—	354	310	79	15	1	8	38	81	3	7	3	255	342	387	729	132	317	23	11	328	109	+4	+0	+0	-2	+10	1.2
ROS	23	A+	CIN	0%	236	213	39	8	1	3	19	76	2	4	2	183	256	272	529	89	266	32	8	244	45	-15	+0	-1	-1	+7	-1.0
ROS	23	MLB	CIN	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						269	0	0	240	42	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	A+	CIN	—	355	322	67	12	1	6	27	109	3	7	3	208	276	307	583	99	290	31	8	261	58	-17	+0	-0	-2	+10	-0.9
TOT	23	A+	CIN	—	590	534	106	20	2	9	46	185	5	11	5	199	268	294	562	96	282	31	8	254	53	-32	+0	-1	-4	+17	-1.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	CIN	30%	517	467	91	18	2	10	41	160	4	8	3	195	266	306	572	111	271	31	8	263	59	-24	+0	-1	-3	+15	-1.4
2028	25	MLB	CIN	44%	546	493	101	20	2	14	44	165	4	8	4	205	275	339	614	134	274	30	8	277	70	-18	+0	-2	-3	+15	-0.8
2029	26	MLB	CIN	51%	562	506	106	20	2	17	46	167	5	8	4	209	282	358	640	148	275	30	8	287	78	-14	+0	-2	-3	+16	-0.3
2030	27	MLB	CIN	52%	568	510	108	21	2	17	48	169	5	8	4	212	286	361	647	149	276	30	8	288	78	-14	+0	-2	-3	+16	-0.3
2027	24	MLB	CIN	30%	157	142	29	6	1	3	13	49	1	2	1	204	276	324	600	120	273	31	8	260	57	-8	+0	-0	-1	+4	-0.5
2028	25	MLB	CIN	44%	242	218	45	9	1	6	20	73	2	4	2	206	279	339	619	133	276	30	8	274	68	-9	+0	-1	-1	+7	-0.4
2029	26	MLB	CIN	51%	285	258	55	11	1	9	23	85	2	4	2	213	283	368	651	155	278	30	8	284	75	-8	+0	-1	-2	+8	-0.2
2030	27	MLB	CIN	52%	298	268	57	11	1	9	25	88	3	4	2	213	287	362	649	149	278	30	8	285	76	-8	+0	-1	-2	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	983	887	186	37	4	27	81	295	8	14	7	210	282	352	634	142	279	30	8	278	71	-32	+0	-3	-6	+28	-1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	123	24	3	18	54	195	5	9	5	210	282	353	635	143	279	30	8	278	71	-21	-0	-2	-4	+18	-0.9
Career	—			—	3862	3496	691	150	20	80	308	1270	30	73	40	198	268	321	589	123	282	33	8	264	60	-173	-1	-7	-23	+109	-9.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	115	25	3	13	52	214	5	12	7	196	267	315	581	119	280	33	8	264	60	-29	-0	-1	-4	+18	-1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Reds	—	192	178	56	9	2	11	12	48	1	7	3	315	361	573	934	258	375	25	6	404	167	+15	+0	—	—	+5	2.1
2022	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	76	65	16	3	1	1	11	22	0	1	1	246	355	369	724	123	357	29	14	331	112	+1	-0	—	—	+2	0.3
2022	19	ROK	ACL Reds	—	27	22	5	2	0	1	5	9	0	0	3	227	370	455	825	227	333	33	19	368	140	+1	-1	—	—	+1	0.1
2023	20	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	264	239	47	17	4	3	23	70	2	1	3	197	273	339	612	142	265	27	9	276	69	-9	-1	—	—	+7	-0.3
2024	21	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	400	346	86	28	2	9	49	97	2	16	7	249	345	419	764	171	317	24	12	340	119	+8	+0	—	—	+11	2.1
2025	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	474	416	93	20	4	4	51	133	5	12	6	224	316	320	635	96	318	28	11	292	82	-10	+0	—	—	+13	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	983	27	15	208	277	348	-6	+0	-0.7	-0.4
	/162	664	18	10	208	277	348	-4.0	+0.0	-0.5	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yerlin Confidan (OGILVIE)	23	20→30	50→60	50→40	60	199/268/294	96	282	9	11	31%	8%	53	-1.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Pérez 2016 · A	23	34	41→50	42→40	41	176/240/273	97	255	9	4	33%	7%	38	-2.6	207/260/304	97	277	8	3	27%	6%	53	-1.5	221/281/340	119	284	13	0	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Nick Flair 2016 · A	23	38	39→55	44→40	41	185/241/276	91	267	6	5	32%	7%	39	-2.5	218/254/342	124	312	11	6	32%	5%	61	-1.0	235/252/384	149	329	15	4	33%	2%	69	-0.2
✕Austin Davidson 2016 · A	23	37→40	43→45	41→45	43	188/254/291	103	226	11	8	22%	5%	50	-1.8	219/283/334	115	270	10	7	22%	7%	72	-0.2	227/291/351	124	279	11	6	22%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Mike Papi 2016 · A	23	40→47	38→45	41→45	47	189/267/278	88	273	5	6	30%	9%	50	-1.7	210/288/330	120	287	12	5	29%	9%	73	-0.1	211/294/337	126	281	14	4	28%	10%	76	+0.1
✕Cole Armstrong 2007 · AA	23	39→36	40→50	42→30	43	194/241/283	89	246	8	3	24%	6%	40	-2.4	219/254/342	123	277	13	2	26%	4%	61	-1.0	228/278/362	134	273	17	1	23%	6%	76	+0.0
✕Tanner Allen 2022 · A	24	40	42→50	44→45	43	202/256/306	104	251	10	7	24%	6%	53	-1.5	204/260/310	106	250	10	7	22%	6%	56	-1.3	201/260/306	105	244	11	7	22%	6%	50	-0.8
✕Randy Florentino 2023 · A	23	37	40→50	47→45	41	183/247/269	86	275	9	6	35%	8%	40	-2.4	197/245/284	87	262	8	6	27%	6%	42	-2.3	183/224/259	76	232	7	4	24%	5%	25	-1.0
✕Thomas Milone 2018 · A	23	40→44	36→45	44→55	41	188/246/253	65	270	3	11	30%	6%	34	-2.8	227/278/332	105	314	6	14	28%	6%	68	-0.5	243/298/369	125	340	8	17	29%	6%	82	+0.3
✕Christopher Familia 2022 · A	22	42	38→55	47→45	43	200/270/285	85	279	4	10	28%	7%	54	-1.4	212/277/365	153	274	19	5	29%	6%	79	+0.3	203/266/377	174	255	24	2	31%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Richie Fecteau 2017 · A	23	39	36→45	44→40	49	186/257/257	72	243	2	6	23%	8%	41	-2.3	219/269/321	102	294	9	4	27%	6%	62	-0.9	223/268/330	107	301	10	2	28%	5%	61	-0.5
✕Wendell Rijo 2019 · AA	23	41	39→55	42→50	44	198/257/281	83	259	7	8	25%	6%	47	-1.9	212/265/353	141	275	17	8	29%	6%	69	-0.4	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Carson Blair 2013 · A	23	34	42→50	43→30	38	172/234/280	108	274	10	6	39%	7%	37	-2.6	197/267/331	134	321	13	4	39%	8%	65	-0.7	191/266/336	145	314	15	1	41%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Tim Pahuta 2006 · A	23	40→41	41→55	45→40	40	196/253/292	96	283	8	4	32%	6%	48	-1.9	211/255/327	116	294	10	3	30%	5%	58	-1.2	203/241/379	177	253	23	3	30%	4%	64	-0.5
✕Jason Vosler 2017 · AA	23	42→43	40→55	40	44	205/258/302	97	255	7	3	22%	6%	53	-1.5	206/269/365	159	271	20	2	31%	6%	75	-0.0	215/280/388	173	267	23	3	28%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Dom Thompson-Williams 2018 · A	23	42→48	37→55	46→50	43	202/254/276	73	268	5	9	26%	6%	43	-2.2	232/279/403	171	335	20	15	35%	5%	89	+0.9	216/262/392	176	317	22	15	38%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→44	42→55	51→45	45	198/266/301	103	259	9	11	26%	7%	56	-1.3	220/277/364	144	296	17	6	30%	6%	78	+0.2	223/282/380	157	291	20	3	30%	6%	81	+0.3
✕Gabe Snyder 2019 · A	24	42→35	39→50	43→40	42	203/265/289	85	285	7	6	30%	6%	53	-1.5	201/268/335	134	283	15	5	33%	7%	66	-0.6	186/259/337	151	254	18	4	33%	8%	60	-0.6
✕Ruben Cardenas 2021 · A	23	43→42	40→55	46→50	41	208/257/305	97	279	7	8	28%	6%	53	-1.5	216/264/385	169	290	23	8	33%	6%	78	+0.2	208/270/383	175	256	23	10	29%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Alex Destino 2019 · A	23	42→45	41→50	44→30	42	203/253/306	103	271	7	2	27%	6%	51	-1.7	215/266/360	145	309	18	2	35%	6%	72	-0.2	200/263/344	144	303	20	0	39%	7%	64	-0.5
✕Argenis Aldazoro 2014 · A	21	36	40→55	47→50	37	182/225/273	91	248	7	7	29%	4%	30	-3.1	210/243/318	108	279	10	8	28%	4%	50	-1.8	218/245/341	123	279	12	9	27%	4%	53	-0.5