Hayden Robinson

P Wilson Warbirds

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKMIL	6	3	19	2.41	1.23	36.8%	9.2%	—	K 25.1% · BB 11.5% · FIP 2.44
2025	20	ROKMIL	7	7	12	8.76	6.18	15.9%	23.8%	—	K 10.8% · BB 29.8% · FIP 7.21
2026	21	MIX2 levels	20	10	63	6.14	4.91	20.4%	13.3%	—	K 15.9% · BB 15.5% · FIP 5.34
2027PROJ	22	MLBMIL	5	5	28	5.59	5.59	18.1%	15.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBMIL	5	5	29	5.35	5.23	19.8%	13.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBMIL	8	8	42	5.08	4.95	20.8%	12.2%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsWilian Bormie (age 22) · Radhames Liz (age 23) · Zach Linginfelter (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%18.1%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%2.3%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	6	3	19	76	28	7	0	50%	3.1	25.1%	11.5%	13.5%	0.0%	2.41	2.44	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	6	3	19	76	28	7	0	50%	3.1	25.1%	11.5%	13.5%	0.0%	2.41	2.44	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	6	3	19	76	28	7	0	50%	3.1	36.8%	9.2%	27.6%	0.0%	2.41	1.23	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	7	7	12	63	10	15	1	100%	1.8	10.8%	29.8%	-19.0%	2.3%	8.76	7.21	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	7	7	12	63	10	15	1	100%	1.8	10.8%	29.8%	-19.0%	2.3%	8.76	7.21	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	7	7	12	63	10	15	1	100%	1.8	15.9%	23.8%	-7.9%	1.6%	8.76	6.18	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	10	63	294	60	39	9	50%	3.1	15.9%	15.5%	0.3%	2.9%	6.14	5.34	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	10	63	294	60	39	9	50%	3.1	15.9%	15.5%	0.3%	2.9%	6.14	5.34	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	10	63	294	60	39	9	50%	3.1	20.4%	13.3%	7.1%	3.1%	6.14	4.91	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	MIL	5	5	28	118	21	19	4	100%	5.6	18.1%	15.8%	2.3%	3.0%	5.59	5.59	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	59	248	49	34	7	100%	5.3	19.8%	13.6%	6.1%	2.9%	5.27	5.15	-0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	60	255	53	31	7	100%	5.5	20.8%	12.2%	8.6%	2.9%	5.00	4.87	+0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	61	258	55	29	7	100%	6.1	21.3%	11.3%	10.0%	2.9%	4.81	4.70	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	61	258	56	29	7	100%	6.1	21.5%	11.2%	10.3%	2.9%	4.72	4.67	+0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	60	254	55	29	8	100%	6.0	21.5%	11.3%	10.2%	3.0%	4.71	4.71	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	29	122	24	17	4	100%	5.8	19.8%	13.6%	6.1%	3.1%	5.35	5.23	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	42	177	37	22	5	100%	5.2	20.8%	12.2%	8.6%	3.1%	5.08	4.95	+0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	50	211	45	24	6	100%	5.6	21.3%	11.3%	10.0%	3.0%	4.89	4.78	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	53	224	48	25	7	100%	5.9	21.5%	11.2%	10.3%	3.0%	4.80	4.75	+0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	54	228	49	26	7	100%	6.0	21.5%	11.3%	10.2%	3.1%	4.79	4.79	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		39	39	228	964	204	113	30	100%	5.9	21.1%	11.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.94	4.49	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	179	99	26	100%	5.8	21.1%	11.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.94	4.49	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		33	20	94	433	72	73	10	61%	2.8	16.7%	16.9%	-0.2%	2.3%	5.74	5.10	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	43	200	921	154	156	21	61%	2.8	16.7%	16.9%	-0.2%	2.3%	5.74	5.10	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Robinson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	18.1%	15.8%	3.0%	—	4.90	20.6%	8.3%	180	-0.69	—	—	—
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	87
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	85
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	85
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	84
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	83
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	83
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	83
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	83
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	82
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	82
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	82
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	81
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	81
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	81
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	80
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	80
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	80
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	80
Josh Gessner R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	22	SW	5.47	17.0%	15.0%	3.5%	.299	5.35	12.0%	-10.1%	34	-0.12	2.98	126	80
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	55	20.7%	12.2%	1.13	4.96
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57