Logan Dawson — OGILVIE

Logan DawsonSS FCL Phillies

Age 21 L/R ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 196 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .268 / .265

PA196

HR2

K%32

BB%9

ISO87

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE68

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	20	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	227	169	30	8	1	3	45	62	7	2	2	178	371	290	661	112	257	27	20	313	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	227	186	24	6	1	2	28	89	7	2	2	129	267	204	471	75	206	39	12	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	227	186	24	6	1	2	28	89	7	2	2	129	267	204	471	75	229	39	12	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	—	227	169	30	8	1	3	45	62	7	2	2	178	371	290	661	112	257	27	20	313	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	227	190	24	6	1	2	28	89	7	2	2	126	267	200	467	74	206	39	12	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	227	190	24	6	1	2	28	89	7	2	2	126	267	200	467	74	206	39	12	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	PHI	0%	337	297	54	10	2	4	32	107	5	4	1	181	270	268	538	87	263	32	9	250	55	-18	+0	+0	+4	+7	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	PHI	34%	263	232	44	8	2	4	25	82	4	3	1	186	275	280	555	94	266	31	10	257	60	-13	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	PHI	48%	361	319	60	11	2	5	34	110	5	4	1	191	279	291	570	100	268	30	9	262	64	-16	+0	+0	+4	+8	-0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	PHI	53%	429	380	74	14	3	7	40	129	6	5	2	195	282	300	582	105	270	30	9	267	67	-17	+0	+0	+5	+9	-0.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	467	414	81	15	3	8	44	138	6	5	2	198	284	307	591	109	272	30	9	270	69	-17	+0	+0	+5	+10	-0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	PHI	56%	490	435	87	16	3	9	46	143	6	5	2	200	286	312	598	112	273	29	9	273	71	-17	+0	+0	+5	+11	-0.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	499	443	89	17	3	9	47	147	6	5	2	199	285	310	595	111	272	29	9	272	70	-18	+0	+0	+5	+11	-0.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	500	443	88	16	3	9	47	148	6	3	2	197	283	305	588	108	271	30	9	269	68	-19	-0	-1	+5	+11	-0.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	PHI	58%	494	439	86	16	3	8	46	148	6	2	1	195	280	299	580	104	270	30	9	266	66	-20	+0	-1	+5	+11	-0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	PHI	34%	90	80	15	3	1	1	9	28	1	1	0	187	276	284	559	97	266	31	10	258	60	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	PHI	48%	175	154	29	5	1	3	17	53	2	2	1	192	280	295	574	103	268	30	10	264	64	-8	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	PHI	53%	226	200	39	7	1	4	21	68	3	2	1	196	283	304	587	109	271	30	9	269	67	-9	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	256	227	46	8	2	5	24	76	3	3	1	199	285	312	597	113	272	30	9	273	69	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	PHI	56%	273	242	49	9	2	5	26	80	3	3	1	201	287	317	604	116	273	29	10	275	71	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	274	243	49	9	2	5	26	80	3	2	1	200	286	315	601	114	272	29	9	274	70	-10	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	273	242	49	9	2	5	26	81	3	2	1	198	284	310	594	112	271	30	10	271	68	-10	+0	-0	+3	+6	-0.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	PHI	58%	286	254	50	9	2	5	27	85	3	1	1	196	281	304	585	108	270	30	9	268	66	-12	-0	-1	+3	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1853	1642	326	59	13	33	176	551	21	16	7	199	284	311	595	112	275	30	9	270	65	-71	+0	-1	+20	+40	-1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	116	21	5	12	62	193	7	6	2	201	286	318	604	116	279	30	10	270	65	-25	+0	-0	+7	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3926	3463	664	125	24	63	376	1196	55	36	16	192	281	296	577	105	271	30	10	264	65	-146	+1	-2	+40	+80	-2.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	110	21	4	10	62	198	9	6	3	192	281	295	576	103	272	30	10	264	65	-26	+0	-0	+7	+14	-0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.1	2,050	33	18	196	279	301	+22	+15	-0.2	0.1
/162	664	11	6	+7.1	+4.9	-0.1	pk7: 0
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Logan Dawson (OGILVIE)	21	20→25	35→40	44→49	68	179/268/265	86	263	2	2	32%	9%	55	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	37	39→45	47→45	49	178/272/261	83	262	6	6	32%	10%	55	-1.9	190/264/264	74	295	5	6	34%	9%	52	-2.2	178/256/266	88	258	7	2	31%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Omar Martinez 2022 · A	21	38→37	40→45	40	50	183/281/271	88	263	8	4	31%	10%	61	-1.5	196/279/313	117	276	13	5	32%	9%	70	-0.9	176/253/289	113	268	15	1	38%	8%	53	-1.3
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→45	49→50	40	186/254/299	114	273	12	9	35%	7%	57	-1.8	197/278/292	95	346	7	8	41%	8%	64	-1.3	149/272/225	76	351	3	4	50%	12%	46	-0.6
✕Daury Arias 2023 · A	21	37→38	41→40	46→45	52	185/276/283	98	231	9	8	23%	10%	62	-1.4	181/255/259	78	262	6	9	31%	8%	48	-2.5	161/238/228	67	236	5	9	32%	8%	31	-1.9
✕Oswaldo Linares 2024 · A	21	41	39→40	48→40	54	193/303/275	82	276	7	5	30%	12%	71	-0.8	183/267/260	77	267	6	4	31%	9%	53	-2.1	154/234/221	67	218	5	2	30%	8%	30	-1.2
✕Randy Florentino 2021 · A	21	42	39→45	42→45	49	199/281/287	88	284	6	6	30%	10%	64	-1.3	180/242/262	82	268	8	5	34%	7%	43	-2.8	183/231/259	76	238	8	4	26%	5%	37	-1.0
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	40	36→40	45→50	46	190/261/259	69	270	4	9	29%	8%	50	-2.3	191/256/256	65	306	3	10	35%	7%	47	-2.6	156/231/187	31	268	0	14	38%	8%	19	-1.5
✕Izaac Pacheco 2024 · A	21	37→40	43→50	46→45	39	186/244/295	109	281	11	6	36%	7%	51	-2.2	192/261/331	139	309	16	5	40%	8%	67	-1.1	185/263/344	159	294	20	3	41%	9%	69	-0.6
✕Elvin Soto 2009 · A	20	33	40	49→40	51	163/276/254	92	241	8	5	32%	12%	57	-1.8	171/259/265	94	289	8	6	39%	10%	51	-2.2	122/214/211	89	220	9	4	45%	9%	19	-1.4
✕Imanol Vargas 2019 · A	21	39→43	38→50	44→45	55	184/287/262	78	251	5	9	26%	12%	61	-1.5	200/279/332	132	299	14	7	35%	9%	74	-0.6	198/285/355	157	311	19	2	39%	10%	79	-0.2
✕Je'Von Ward 2021 · A	21	43→37	37→45	47→50	42	199/261/272	74	301	4	8	33%	8%	52	-2.2	202/251/297	95	324	8	10	37%	6%	54	-2.0	195/284/320	125	290	14	8	35%	11%	73	-0.3
✕Aaron Shipman 2013 · A	21	41→39	35→30	44→50	49	190/271/250	60	279	2	9	30%	10%	52	-2.2	227/310/295	68	314	2	16	25%	10%	76	-0.4	246/336/306	60	332	1	21	23%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Omar Alfonzo 2023 · A	19	35→41	36→45	48→40	50	170/265/234	64	247	4	3	30%	10%	47	-2.6	207/288/311	104	312	11	4	34%	10%	72	-0.7	205/285/317	112	311	13	2	36%	9%	70	-0.6
✕Henrry Rosario 2014 · A	21	36	37→45	47→45	46	174/247/252	78	242	4	8	28%	8%	42	-2.9	195/249/297	102	250	8	7	24%	6%	53	-2.1	198/245/326	128	246	14	9	25%	5%	57	-0.6
✕Daniel Vellojin 2021 · A	21	42	37→45	47→45	53	198/288/275	77	240	4	8	18%	9%	65	-1.2	200/294/312	112	278	10	5	29%	11%	75	-0.5	183/281/293	111	253	11	4	30%	11%	64	-0.7
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A	21	39→33	43→45	51→50	42	193/261/303	109	286	10	12	34%	8%	60	-1.6	207/272/319	112	304	11	12	33%	7%	68	-1.0	183/257/295	112	268	12	11	34%	8%	56	-1.1
✕Luis Mendez 2024 · A	21	38	38→40	47→50	43	182/254/259	77	275	6	10	34%	8%	47	-2.5	193/255/274	81	270	5	12	28%	7%	50	-2.3	187/247/263	77	253	5	13	27%	7%	43	-1.2
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	40	39→40	54→60	52	186/296/275	89	275	5	8	30%	12%	68	-1.0	190/293/264	74	252	5	17	24%	10%	64	-1.3	151/292/187	36	182	3	30	16%	14%	48	-0.8
✕Ricardo Hurtado 2024 · A	21	39→29	40→45	48→45	46	187/286/283	96	259	7	6	28%	8%	67	-1.1	184/278/286	102	279	10	4	35%	9%	63	-1.3	163/265/259	96	246	11	3	35%	10%	51	-1.2
✕Carlos Soto 2019 · A	20	40	40→45	43→30	46	198/266/283	86	263	8	3	27%	8%	57	-1.8	200/267/297	97	281	9	4	30%	7%	61	-1.5	168/258/285	117	236	11	0	32%	10%	54	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps