Brady Cerkownyk

C FCL Nationals

Age 24 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2011ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	ROKDET	82	.219/.305/.315	2	1	17	—	.160/.232/.253
2026	23	A+/A/ROKWSH	149	.294/.421/.471	2	4	78	—	.226/.317/.366
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBWSH	200	.204/.273/.303	3	5	63	0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBWSH	35	.207/.276/.311	1	1	67	0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBWSH	76	.210/.279/.319	1	2	70	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

wRC+89

ISO89

wOBA84

Speed83

Whiff%57

Z-Con%45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsDylan Neuse (age 24) · Grae Kessinger (age 24) · Jason Lopez (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 68 proj PA

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .271 / .300

PA68

HR1

K%31

BB%7

ISO98

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	82	73	16	1	0	2	6	22	3	1	0	219	305	315	620	96	286	27	7	288	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	29	21	4	1	0	0	7	10	0	0	1	190	393	238	631	48	333	34	24	306	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	38	32	9	2	0	1	6	6	0	0	0	281	395	438	832	156	320	16	16	375	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	82	66	22	10	1	1	10	19	3	4	1	333	443	561	1.004	227	429	23	12	424	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	82	75	12	1	0	2	4	32	3	1	0	160	232	253	485	93	227	39	5	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	29	24	4	1	0	0	4	13	0	0	1	167	286	208	494	42	283	45	14	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	38	34	8	2	0	1	4	8	0	0	0	235	316	382	698	147	282	21	11	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	82	70	17	7	1	1	6	27	3	4	1	243	329	414	743	171	316	33	7	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	82	75	12	1	0	2	4	32	3	1	0	160	232	253	485	93	244	39	5	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	—	82	73	16	1	0	2	6	22	3	1	0	219	305	315	620	96	286	27	7	288	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	149	128	28	9	1	2	14	49	3	4	2	219	310	352	662	133	321	33	9	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	ROK RAW	3 teams	—	149	119	35	13	1	2	23	35	3	4	2	294	421	471	891	176	384	23	15	389	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	82	75	12	1	0	2	4	32	3	1	0	160	232	253	485	93	227	39	5	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	149	131	28	9	1	2	14	49	3	4	2	214	310	344	654	130	301	33	9	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	82	75	12	1	0	2	4	32	3	1	0	160	232	253	485	93	227	39	5	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	ROK MLE	3 teams	—	149	131	28	9	1	2	14	49	3	4	2	214	310	344	654	130	301	33	9	284	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	200	181	37	7	1	3	15	61	2	5	2	204	273	303	575	98	289	30	8	262	63	-9	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	30%	117	106	22	4	1	2	9	35	1	4	1	208	276	313	589	105	290	30	8	267	67	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	44%	172	155	32	6	1	3	13	51	2	6	2	210	279	321	600	111	290	30	8	272	70	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	49%	216	196	41	8	1	4	16	64	2	7	2	211	280	323	603	112	289	30	7	273	71	-8	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	51%	247	223	46	9	1	4	19	73	3	8	3	211	280	322	603	112	288	30	8	273	71	-9	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	51%	261	236	50	10	1	5	20	77	3	8	3	210	279	320	600	110	287	30	8	271	70	-9	+0	-1	+5	+6	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	30%	35	32	7	1	0	1	3	11	0	1	0	207	276	311	587	104	289	31	9	266	67	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	44%	76	69	14	3	0	1	6	23	1	2	1	210	279	319	598	110	289	30	8	271	70	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	49%	106	96	20	4	0	2	8	31	1	4	1	210	280	321	601	111	288	29	8	272	71	-4	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	51%	127	115	25	5	1	2	10	37	1	4	1	210	280	321	600	110	288	29	8	272	71	-4	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	51%	134	122	25	5	1	2	10	39	1	4	2	210	279	319	598	109	286	29	7	271	70	-5	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	478	434	91	18	2	8	37	141	4	15	5	210	278	316	594	106	288	29	8	271	67	-17	+1	-1	+9	+10	0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	124	24	3	11	50	192	5	20	7	210	277	317	594	107	289	30	8	271	67	-23	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	1312	1181	243	49	6	23	100	402	18	40	14	206	278	316	594	110	288	31	8	268	67	-39	+2	-2	+19	+23	0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	120	24	3	11	50	199	9	20	7	205	278	313	591	108	288	31	8	268	67	-24	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Nationals · 82 PAwOBA .429 → .300 (−129)K% 23.2% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.17%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	33.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.20%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.965	7.30%
HBP% /PA	3.66%	—	×0.720	—	×0.965	2.54%
Singles /BIP	21.28%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.965	16.84%
Doubles /BIP	21.28%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.965	14.78%
Triples /BIP	2.13%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.965	1.48%
Home runs /BIP	2.13%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.965	1.60%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .429 → .300; ISO .227 → .159; BABIP .429 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 38 PAwOBA .366 → .294 (−72)K% 15.8% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.79%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	21.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.79%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	10.79%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.990	21.02%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.990	6.32%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.85%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	3.05%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .366 → .294; ISO .156 → .124; BABIP .320 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 29 PAwOBA .311 → .227 (−84)K% 34.5% → 45.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.48%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	45.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	24.14%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.998	14.45%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷1.000	×0.870	—	×0.998	23.68%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.998	7.08%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .311 → .227; ISO .048 → .039; BABIP .333 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Tigers · 82 PAwOBA .280 → .194 (−87)K% 26.8% → 38.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.83%	÷1.001	×1.440	—	—	38.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.32%	÷0.996	×0.620	—	×0.975	4.44%
HBP% /PA	3.66%	—	×0.720	—	×0.975	2.57%
Singles /BIP	25.49%	÷0.974	×0.820	×0.984	×0.975	20.59%
Doubles /BIP	1.96%	÷0.992	×0.720	×0.984	×0.975	1.37%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.720	×0.984	×0.975	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.92%	÷0.880	×0.780	—	×0.975	3.39%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 95, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .280 → .194; ISO .096 → .070; BABIP .286 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
#4Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#5Jeff Torborg'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,525 PA	2.3	1,525	8	3	214*	271*	292*	+27	+0	0.2	0.7
/162	664	3	1	+11.8	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.8	546	9	17	210	276	320	+10	+12	0.6	0.6
/162	664	11	21	+11.9	+14.6	0.7	pk7: 1
#6John Boccabella'63-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,595 PA	2.4	1,595	26	3	217*	267*	343*	+8	+6	-1.3	-0.1
/162	664	11	1	+3.5	+2.7	-0.5	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brady Cerkownyk (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	202/271/300	98	289	1	2	31%	7%	63	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dylan Neuse 2023 · A	24	36	39→40	49→50	44	178/253/255	77	262	8	14	33%	8%	47	-2.6	205/278/293	88	286	6	12	28%	9%	64	-1.3	205/285/293	88	279	5	13	26%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Grae Kessinger 2022 · AA	24	38→30	42→45	48→50	41	192/253/286	94	259	11	15	30%	6%	53	-2.1	198/271/310	112	262	13	14	28%	8%	66	-1.1	186/264/278	92	250	9	8	27%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Jason Lopez 2022 · AA	24	39	42→50	54→45	41	194/257/295	101	291	10	12	35%	8%	56	-1.9	208/270/316	108	304	10	9	33%	8%	66	-1.1	167/227/257	90	235	8	0	31%	7%	34	-0.6
✕Jackson Cluff 2021 · A	24	40→30	42→45	51→60	40	198/262/303	106	282	9	12	32%	6%	60	-1.6	182/252/273	91	277	7	13	35%	6%	50	-2.3	178/268/298	120	261	12	28	34%	10%	60	-0.9
✕Sicnarf Loopstok 2017 · A	24	43→36	42→50	50	38	209/268/316	107	294	9	13	31%	5%	65	-1.2	211/280/359	148	299	17	9	34%	7%	80	-0.1	199/274/363	164	277	21	7	34%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Maverick Handley 2022 · A	24	39	41→40	53→50	40	186/267/286	100	308	9	16	39%	8%	59	-1.6	201/292/301	100	281	10	12	30%	9%	72	-0.7	195/293/283	88	266	8	10	27%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Ben Gobbel 2024 · A	24	44→41	41→45	52→50	42	208/277/307	100	306	8	14	33%	7%	67	-1.1	216/267/338	122	283	14	12	28%	5%	70	-0.8	216/266/339	123	276	15	11	27%	5%	67	-0.8
✕Ben Cowles 2024 · A	24	41→40	43→45	52→50	39	198/267/307	109	311	11	16	37%	7%	63	-1.4	210/271/322	112	295	9	16	30%	6%	68	-1.0	206/265/314	109	283	9	17	29%	6%	61	-1.1
✕David Sheaffer 2019 · A	24	35	42→50	52→40	39	182/228/283	101	243	10	7	29%	5%	42	-2.9	209/254/329	120	292	12	5	31%	5%	63	-1.4	190/235/299	108	268	11	1	32%	5%	47	-0.8
✕Jacob Wetzel 2024 · A	24	38→34	41→45	50	44	185/262/277	92	271	8	12	33%	8%	55	-2.0	199/275/320	121	288	9	14	31%	9%	69	-0.9	196/279/346	150	275	11	17	30%	10%	75	-0.3
✕Tony Bullard 2024 · A	24	40	44→40	52→50	43	202/263/315	113	267	12	12	29%	7%	63	-1.3	214/271/319	105	285	9	12	27%	6%	68	-1.0	210/267/311	102	278	9	13	27%	6%	61	-0.5
✕Ismael Alcantara 2023 · AA	24	38→30	45	50	37	195/253/316	121	280	13	12	34%	6%	60	-1.6	211/268/301	90	312	8	17	33%	6%	61	-1.5	216/273/285	69	324	7	24	33%	6%	57	-1.2
✕Brady Policelli 2019 · A	24	41→38	42→45	51→50	41	202/255/309	107	269	9	14	28%	6%	59	-1.7	195/256/310	115	270	10	14	30%	7%	59	-1.6	176/242/291	115	244	11	15	31%	7%	47	-1.7
✕Gunnar Heidt 2017 · A	24	39→41	41→45	48→50	39	193/250/295	101	280	8	15	32%	6%	53	-2.1	197/251/297	100	295	9	12	34%	6%	54	-2.0	194/248/291	96	283	9	9	33%	6%	49	-1.7
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	37	42→40	49→50	48	187/274/289	103	259	10	13	30%	10%	63	-1.4	200/295/298	98	281	9	11	29%	10%	72	-0.7	182/296/265	82	256	7	11	28%	12%	63	-0.8
✕Camden Duzenack 2019 · A	24	39→36	39→50	46→50	41	191/253/277	87	252	5	11	26%	5%	51	-2.3	186/241/309	123	254	15	9	32%	5%	54	-2.0	211/258/338	126	272	14	10	27%	5%	64	-0.6
✕E.J. Exposito 2024 · A	23	37→33	41→50	50→55	43	177/262/268	90	293	9	14	39%	9%	53	-2.1	189/246/321	132	265	16	17	34%	6%	59	-1.7	184/237/328	144	240	19	19	32%	6%	55	-1.5
✕Alerick Soularie 2023 · A	24	40	44→45	53→60	44	195/276/310	114	290	11	16	34%	9%	68	-1.0	200/282/313	113	289	12	26	32%	9%	71	-0.8	182/274/287	105	255	13	39	32%	9%	61	-0.5
✕Sammy Infante 2024 · A	23	37→26	42→45	50→55	37	183/252/282	99	292	10	15	39%	7%	52	-2.2	200/263/295	95	313	8	15	36%	7%	59	-1.7	164/228/246	82	264	6	18	38%	6%	32	-0.9
✕Shawn Goosenberg 2024 · A	24	40→38	42→45	56→55	41	196/265/296	100	285	10	23	33%	7%	60	-1.6	197/250/309	112	295	11	18	35%	6%	57	-1.8	184/234/312	127	273	14	18	37%	5%	49	-1.7

Brady Cerkownyk

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps