Jackson Castillo
OF Somerset Patriots| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+/ANYY | 415 | .268/.391/.426 | 9 | 21 | 78 | — | .214/.301/.340 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/A+NYY | 499 | .236/.333/.333 | 7 | 22 | 50 | — | .199/.267/.283 |
| 2026 | 23 | AANYY | 462 | .241/.346/.357 | 9 | 12 | 72 | — | .219/.301/.311 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBNYY | 4 | .219/.293/.317 | 0 | 0 | 73 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBNYY | 81 | .222/.296/.328 | 1 | 2 | 77 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBNYY | 136 | .224/.298/.334 | 3 | 3 | 79 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 20 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 43 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 279 | 263 | 542 | 79 | 286 | 37 | 12 | 256 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Yankees | — | 42 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 276 | 500 | 379 | 879 | 103 | 421 | 24 | 26 | 416 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 81 | 70 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 314 | 392 | 514 | 907 | 200 | 364 | 19 | 10 | 389 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 334 | 270 | 69 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 58 | 65 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 256 | 391 | 404 | 795 | 148 | 307 | 19 | 17 | 359 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 93 | 81 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 304 | 321 | 625 | 111 | 254 | 23 | 11 | 286 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 406 | 351 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 48 | 81 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 242 | 340 | 336 | 676 | 94 | 299 | 20 | 12 | 310 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 462 | 395 | 95 | 17 | 1 | 9 | 59 | 90 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 241 | 346 | 357 | 703 | 116 | 288 | 19 | 13 | 322 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 43 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 150 | 209 | 225 | 434 | 75 | 271 | 51 | 7 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Yankees | — | 42 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 381 | 303 | 684 | 91 | 335 | 36 | 17 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 81 | 74 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 270 | 316 | 446 | 762 | 176 | 316 | 26 | 5 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 334 | 290 | 58 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 92 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 200 | 297 | 314 | 611 | 114 | 261 | 28 | 11 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 93 | 84 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 272 | 310 | 581 | 107 | 253 | 28 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 406 | 369 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 108 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 198 | 266 | 276 | 542 | 79 | 259 | 27 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 462 | 411 | 90 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 43 | 110 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 219 | 301 | 311 | 612 | 92 | 276 | 24 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 85 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 164 | 282 | 247 | 529 | 82 | 314 | 44 | 12 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 85 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 224 | 388 | 313 | 702 | 90 | 350 | 31 | 19 | 335 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 415 | 364 | 77 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 42 | 113 | 3 | 21 | 6 | 212 | 298 | 330 | 628 | 118 | 280 | 27 | 10 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 415 | 340 | 91 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 66 | 80 | 3 | 21 | 6 | 268 | 391 | 426 | 818 | 159 | 319 | 19 | 16 | 365 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 499 | 453 | 89 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 134 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 196 | 265 | 274 | 538 | 77 | 262 | 27 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 499 | 432 | 102 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 58 | 102 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 236 | 333 | 333 | 667 | 97 | 291 | 20 | 12 | 306 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 462 | 411 | 90 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 43 | 110 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 219 | 301 | 311 | 612 | 92 | 279 | 24 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | Somerset Patriots | — | 462 | 395 | 95 | 17 | 1 | 9 | 59 | 90 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 241 | 346 | 357 | 703 | 116 | 288 | 19 | 13 | 322 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 85 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 164 | 282 | 247 | 529 | 82 | 303 | 44 | 12 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 415 | 367 | 77 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 42 | 113 | 3 | 21 | 6 | 210 | 298 | 327 | 625 | 117 | 272 | 27 | 10 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 499 | 454 | 89 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 134 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 196 | 265 | 273 | 538 | 77 | 258 | 27 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 462 | 411 | 90 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 43 | 110 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 219 | 301 | 311 | 612 | 92 | 276 | 24 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 415 | 367 | 77 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 42 | 113 | 3 | 21 | 6 | 210 | 298 | 327 | 625 | 117 | 272 | 27 | 10 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 499 | 454 | 89 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 134 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 196 | 265 | 273 | 538 | 77 | 258 | 27 | 7 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 462 | 411 | 90 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 43 | 110 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 219 | 301 | 311 | 612 | 92 | 276 | 24 | 9 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | NYY | 2% | 380 | 342 | 75 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 93 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 219 | 292 | 313 | 606 | 95 | 280 | 24 | 8 | 276 | 73 | -12 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | NYY | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 293 | 317 | 610 | 98 | 280 | 25 | 0 | 278 | 73 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | NYY | 31% | 260 | 234 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 63 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 221 | 296 | 324 | 619 | 102 | 281 | 24 | 8 | 281 | 77 | -7 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYY | 45% | 305 | 273 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 73 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 223 | 297 | 330 | 627 | 107 | 282 | 24 | 9 | 284 | 79 | -8 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | NYY | 49% | 321 | 287 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 77 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 223 | 297 | 331 | 628 | 108 | 282 | 24 | 9 | 285 | 79 | -8 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | NYY | 31% | 81 | 73 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 222 | 296 | 328 | 624 | 106 | 281 | 25 | 9 | 283 | 77 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYY | 45% | 136 | 122 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 224 | 298 | 334 | 632 | 110 | 282 | 24 | 9 | 286 | 79 | -3 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | NYY | 49% | 158 | 142 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 38 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 224 | 298 | 336 | 634 | 112 | 281 | 24 | 9 | 287 | 79 | -4 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 375 | 337 | 76 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 91 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 226 | 300 | 335 | 636 | 110 | 286 | 24 | 9 | 286 | 70 | -10 | +2 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 132 | 24 | 2 | 12 | 57 | 158 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 226 | 300 | 336 | 635 | 110 | 288 | 24 | 9 | 286 | 70 | -17 | +3 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2557 | 2283 | 485 | 85 | 10 | 39 | 226 | 658 | 25 | 82 | 13 | 212 | 290 | 310 | 600 | 97 | 278 | 26 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -30 | +3 | +0 | -7 | +24 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 580 | 124 | 22 | 3 | 10 | 57 | 167 | 6 | 21 | 3 | 214 | 290 | 314 | 604 | 100 | 279 | 26 | 9 | 272 | 70 | -18 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AASomerset Patriots · 462 PAwOBA .316 → .275 (−41)K% 19.5% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.48% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 9.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.990 | ×1.027 | 22.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.990 | ×1.027 | 4.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | ×1.027 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 2.36% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .316 → .275; ISO .116 → .097; BABIP .288 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 406 PAwOBA .305 → .241 (−64)K% 20.0% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.95% | ÷0.985 | ×1.310 | — | — | 26.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.82% | ÷0.984 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 7.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷0.991 | ×0.870 | ×1.003 | ×1.012 | 20.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.93% | ÷1.014 | ×0.780 | ×1.003 | ×1.012 | 4.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷0.975 | ×0.850 | ×1.003 | ×1.012 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.969 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 1.70% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 95, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .305 → .241; ISO .094 → .079; BABIP .299 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AASomerset Patriots · 93 PAwOBA .282 → .247 (−35)K% 22.6% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.58% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.75% | ÷0.977 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 8.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.969 | ×0.970 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 20.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.860 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 4.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.056 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 2.63% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 94, 2B 91, 3B 111, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .282 → .247; ISO .111 → .090; BABIP .254 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ATampa Tarpons · 334 PAwOBA .354 → .275 (−80)K% 19.5% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.46% | ÷0.959 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.37% | ÷1.061 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 11.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.46% | ÷1.035 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×1.015 | 18.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.29% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | ×0.974 | ×1.015 | 6.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷0.971 | ×0.910 | ×0.974 | ×1.015 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.41% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.83% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 106, 3B 94, K 92, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .354 → .275; ISO .148 → .120; BABIP .307 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 81 PAwOBA .385 → .318 (−67)K% 18.5% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.52% | ÷0.946 | ×1.310 | — | — | 25.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.64% | ÷1.099 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 4.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.45% | ÷1.025 | ×0.870 | ×1.018 | ×1.027 | 22.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷1.070 | ×0.780 | ×1.018 | ×1.027 | 5.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.64% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.018 | ×1.027 | 3.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.64% | ÷1.032 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 3.18% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 105, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 89, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .385 → .318; ISO .200 → .177; BABIP .364 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ATampa Tarpons · 43 PAwOBA .250 → .174 (−76)K% 37.2% → 51.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.21% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 51.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.63% | ÷1.079 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 26.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.972 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.086 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.45% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 95, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .250 → .174; ISO .079 → .047; BABIP .286 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Yankees · 42 PAwOBA .408 → .286 (−122)K% 23.8% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.81% | ÷0.951 | ×1.440 | — | — | 36.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 26.19% | ÷0.995 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 16.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.76% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.58% | ÷0.994 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 25.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.106 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 4.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.383 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 99, 2B 121, 3B 80, K 90, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .408 → .286; ISO .103 → .076; BABIP .421 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).