Jackson Hornung — OGILVIE

Jackson HornungC New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 215 lbs AA HR +12%BB +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2028

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .257 / .304

PA320

HR6

SB9

K%38

BB%7

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40→40

PWR

50→50

SPD

45→45

EYE

44↗45

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2028

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.3	$1M	+$1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$9M		$9M	+$0.6M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	62	57	7	2	0	1	2	28	2	0	1	.123	.180	.211	.391	.088	.207	45	3	.154	-24	-9	-0	+0	+1	+2	-0.6
2024	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	463	423	83	16	2	4	29	163	8	0	0	.196	.261	.272	.533	.076	.305	35	6	.238	40	-31	+0	+0	+8	+13	-1.0
2025	24	AA	2 teams	403	365	83	16	4	8	29	171	3	9	0	.227	.290	.359	.649	.132	.391	42	7	.283	75	-12	+2	+0	+7	+11	0.9
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	25	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	74	72	22	6	1	1	2	26	0	4	0	.306	.324	.458	.783	.153	.467	35	3	.324	106	+1	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.5
ROS	25	MLB	TOR	246	226	49	10	2	5	16	93	2	5	0	.217	.275	.345	.620	.128	.330	38	7	.268	63	-10	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.2
TOT	25	MLB	TOR	320	298	71	16	3	6	18	119	2	9	0	.238	.286	.372	.659	.134	.374	37	6	.281	73	-10	+2	+0	+6	+9	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 11%	TOR	357	326	72	14	2	8	25	122	3	6	0	.221	.282	.350	.632	.129	.322	34	7	.281	73	-11	+1	+0	+6	+10	0.7
2028	27	MLB 26%	TOR	382	348	77	15	2	8	28	127	3	7	0	.221	.285	.345	.630	.124	.320	33	7	.285	76	-10	+1	+0	+7	+11	0.9
2029	28	MLB 38%	TOR	397	362	80	15	2	9	29	131	3	6	0	.221	.284	.348	.632	.127	.318	33	7	.286	77	-10	+1	-1	+7	+11	0.9
2030	29	MLB 47%	TOR	398	362	80	15	2	9	30	131	3	6	0	.221	.286	.348	.634	.127	.317	33	8	.284	76	-11	+1	-1	+7	+11	0.7
2031	30	MLB 56%	TOR	397	361	78	15	2	8	30	132	3	5	0	.216	.282	.335	.617	.119	.315	33	8	.281	73	-12	+1	-2	+7	+11	0.5
2032	31	MLB 66%	TOR	374	340	74	14	2	8	28	126	3	4	0	.218	.283	.341	.624	.124	.314	34	7	.277	71	-12	+1	-3	+7	+11	0.3
2033	32	MLB 84%	TOR	347	315	68	13	2	7	26	119	3	3	0	.216	.282	.337	.618	.121	.313	34	7	.273	67	-13	+1	-4	+6	+10	0.0
2034	33	MLB	TOR	310	282	59	11	2	6	23	108	2	2	0	.209	.274	.326	.600	.117	.311	35	7	.267	63	-13	+0	-4	+6	+9	-0.3
2035	34	MLB	TOR	262	239	48	9	1	4	19	94	2	2	0	.201	.265	.297	.562	.096	.310	36	7	.261	58	-12	+0	-5	+5	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4398	4006	858	165	25	85	314	1545	40	55	1	.214	.278	.332	.609	.117	.322	35	7	.272	66	-167	+11	-20	+79	+125	2.8
/ 162G	—			650	592	127	24	4	13	46	228	6	8	0	.215	.278	.334	.612	.120	.321	35	7	.272	66	-25	+2	-3	+12	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	62	56	8	2	0	1	3	20	2	0	1	.143	.213	.232	.445	.089	.194	32	5	.205	15	-6	-0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2024	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	463	407	105	25	2	6	45	114	8	0	0	.258	.343	.373	.717	.115	.341	25	10	.325	107	+3	+0	—	—	+13	1.7
2025	24	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	214	186	50	11	2	6	21	73	1	4	0	.269	.341	.446	.787	.177	.400	34	10	.342	120	+5	+1	—	—	+6	1.2
2025	24	A+	Vancouver Canadians	189	159	49	9	3	3	23	51	2	5	0	.308	.398	.459	.857	.151	.426	27	12	.375	145	+10	+1	—	—	+5	1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jackson Hornung (OGILVIE)	25	40	50	45	45	.192/.257/.304	.113	.303	6	4	38%	7%	54	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pedro Pagés 2023 · AAA	24	40→43	45→50	44→40	41	.202/.265/.317	.115	.296	13	4	35%	7%	60	-1.0	.219/.281/.353	.134	.289	16	4	29%	7%	76	+0.1	.224/.283/.362	.138	.282	18	2	26%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Trevor Schwecke 2023 · AAA	25	40	43→45	42→50	39	.196/.257/.308	.111	.294	11	7	36%	7%	54	-1.4	.222/.280/.337	.115	.319	10	13	32%	7%	71	-0.3	.230/.289/.344	.113	.326	10	17	30%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Carson Blair 2015 · AA	25	43	46→50	45→30	42	.203/.278/.343	.140	.325	13	4	39%	9%	72	-0.2	.200/.271/.327	.127	.334	13	4	41%	8%	66	-0.6	.178/.250/.294	.116	.296	14	1	42%	8%	45	-0.8
✕Wade Wass 2017 · AA	25	43	46→50	45	41	.208/.286/.337	.130	.320	13	5	37%	8%	75	-0.0	.208/.285/.357	.149	.328	18	11	40%	7%	80	+0.4	.204/.289/.400	.196	.300	29	18	40%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Brent Diaz 2022 · AA	26	41	43→45	45	39	.196/.275/.304	.108	.304	11	8	37%	7%	62	-0.9	.218/.283/.353	.135	.305	16	9	32%	6%	78	+0.2	.202/.265/.336	.134	.270	18	9	31%	5%	61	-0.3
✕Blake Hunt 2023 · AA	24	38	43→50	49→40	38	.190/.248/.301	.111	.281	11	5	35%	6%	49	-1.8	.209/.266/.343	.134	.276	14	5	29%	6%	67	-0.5	.206/.268/.347	.141	.262	15	2	27%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Ryan Dorow 2021 · AA	25	42	42→45	49→45	39	.202/.266/.305	.102	.304	10	9	35%	6%	57	-1.2	.208/.272/.333	.125	.293	12	6	31%	7%	67	-0.5	.201/.266/.328	.127	.277	12	3	30%	7%	60	-0.7
✕Armani Smith 2023 · AA	25	45	43→50	46→45	40	.215/.278/.323	.108	.329	11	7	36%	7%	66	-0.6	.210/.274/.308	.098	.330	9	9	36%	8%	61	-1.0	.166/.233/.228	.062	.270	8	9	39%	7%	21	-0.6
✕Chris Williams 2022 · AA	25	36→31	45→55	50→40	45	.177/.269/.302	.125	.295	12	5	41%	11%	59	-1.1	.194/.271/.372	.178	.288	24	5	39%	9%	78	+0.2	.180/.262/.367	.188	.250	27	4	39%	9%	71	-0.2
✕Riley Adams 2021 · AA	25	45→42	45→50	49→40	42	.211/.292/.334	.123	.324	12	6	36%	8%	77	+0.1	.215/.302/.369	.154	.315	16	4	34%	8%	90	+1.0	.209/.298/.376	.166	.299	17	0	33%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Chase Strumpf 2022 · AA	24	42→35	44→50	48→45	44	.203/.282/.321	.118	.296	11	7	33%	8%	69	-0.4	.196/.293/.355	.159	.317	19	5	41%	10%	83	+0.6	.180/.284/.345	.165	.293	21	3	42%	11%	73	-0.1
✕Jakson Reetz 2022 · AAA	26	38→34	45→60	45	39	.189/.269/.309	.120	.282	13	5	36%	7%	61	-1.0	.204/.281/.391	.187	.267	24	5	33%	6%	88	+0.9	.197/.277/.397	.201	.245	26	4	31%	7%	84	+0.3
✕Yusniel Díaz 2022 · AAA	25	37→47	44→45	42→50	38	.189/.242/.306	.117	.272	12	5	35%	6%	47	-1.9	.217/.283/.342	.125	.290	14	11	29%	8%	74	-0.1	.232/.304/.368	.137	.293	16	11	26%	9%	87	+0.5
✕Allan de San Miguel 2013 · AAA	25	39	43→45	48→40	42	.190/.266/.299	.109	.297	10	6	37%	8%	56	-1.3	.208/.283/.326	.118	.296	12	8	32%	8%	71	-0.3	.174/.248/.262	.088	.232	10	2	28%	6%	36	-0.7
✕Alex Kowalczyk 2019 · A	25	45→37	43→45	49→45	36	.213/.268/.318	.105	.326	11	5	36%	5%	61	-1.0	.205/.253/.295	.090	.334	9	6	39%	5%	48	-1.9	.187/.217/.235	.049	.316	6	2	42%	3%	14	-1.3
✕Mitch Walding 2018 · AA	25	40→45	46→50	43→40	40	.197/.268/.326	.129	.309	14	4	39%	8%	64	-0.8	.202/.291/.355	.153	.332	18	4	41%	10%	82	+0.5	.182/.280/.329	.147	.322	19	3	45%	11%	69	-0.2
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	36	45→50	48→50	37	.186/.248/.306	.120	.290	14	12	39%	7%	50	-1.7	.185/.245/.287	.102	.286	9	10	36%	7%	43	-2.2	.153/.212/.244	.092	.224	3	6	32%	7%	14	-1.0
✕Cam Devanney 2022 · AA	25	36→42	41→55	45	40	.183/.249/.273	.090	.263	9	8	32%	6%	43	-2.2	.213/.275/.368	.155	.278	18	7	29%	7%	78	+0.2	.219/.282/.386	.166	.279	19	7	28%	7%	82	+0.4
✕Kyle Higashioka 2015 · AA	25	39→43	46→60	46→40	40	.200/.250/.326	.126	.273	13	6	31%	6%	56	-1.3	.216/.260/.350	.134	.258	15	3	22%	6%	66	-0.6	.229/.276/.416	.187	.272	25	4	26%	6%	88	+0.4
✕Logan Taylor 2019 · AA	25	45→49	45	42→40	39	.217/.276/.343	.126	.327	12	5	36%	7%	71	-0.3	.202/.249/.309	.107	.317	11	6	38%	5%	51	-1.7	.174/.216/.262	.089	.273	11	4	39%	4%	23	-2.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)