Lucas Braun

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.2 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#414ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	25	24	144	3.26	2.72	27.7%	7.2%	—	K 21.9% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.74
2025	23	MIX2 levels	27	26	150	3.67	3.59	24.3%	6.5%	—	K 19.8% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.57
2026	24	MIX2 levels	27	25	132	4.16	3.87	21.3%	7.1%	—	K 17.9% · BB 6.8% · FIP 4.30
2027PROJ	25	MLBKC	2	2	9	4.62	4.62	17.8%	6.3%	0.1
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBKC	10	10	57	4.41	4.39	18.7%	6.4%	0.6
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBKC	12	12	73	4.40	4.41	19.0%	6.6%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$1M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.9 / P90 5.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsBrian Edgington (age 25) · Grant Rogers (age 23) · Cole De Vries (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%17.8%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	27	106	32	5	2	100%	4.5	20.7%	3.5%	17.2%	0.0%	2.67	1.79	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	27	106	32	5	2	100%	4.5	30.2%	4.7%	25.5%	1.9%	2.67	2.25	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	144	585	162	42	11	96%	5.7	21.9%	8.0%	13.9%	2.7%	3.26	3.74	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	144	585	162	42	11	96%	5.7	21.9%	8.0%	13.9%	2.7%	3.26	3.74	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	144	585	162	42	11	96%	5.7	27.7%	7.2%	20.5%	1.9%	3.26	2.72	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	150	597	145	39	19	96%	5.5	19.8%	7.1%	12.7%	4.1%	3.67	4.57	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	150	597	145	39	19	96%	5.5	19.8%	7.1%	12.7%	4.1%	3.67	4.57	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	150	597	145	39	19	96%	5.5	24.3%	6.5%	17.8%	3.2%	3.67	3.59	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	132	563	120	40	17	93%	4.9	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.16	4.30	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	132	563	120	40	17	93%	4.9	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.16	4.30	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	132	563	120	40	17	93%	4.9	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	3.0%	4.16	3.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	KC	2	2	9	38	7	2	1	100%	4.5	17.8%	6.3%	11.5%	3.4%	4.62	4.62	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	117	494	93	32	16	100%	5.9	18.7%	6.4%	12.3%	3.3%	4.55	4.53	+1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	110	464	88	30	16	100%	6.1	19.0%	6.6%	12.4%	3.4%	4.54	4.55	+1.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	106	447	85	30	15	100%	5.9	19.0%	6.8%	12.2%	3.4%	4.58	4.62	+1.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	16	16	98	414	78	29	15	100%	6.1	18.8%	7.0%	11.8%	3.6%	4.67	4.74	+0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	15	15	89	375	69	27	14	100%	5.9	18.5%	7.3%	11.2%	3.8%	4.82	4.92	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	KC	13	13	79	334	60	26	13	100%	6.1	18.1%	7.7%	10.4%	4.0%	5.00	5.12	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	57	241	45	15	7	100%	5.7	18.7%	6.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.41	4.39	+0.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	73	308	58	20	10	100%	6.1	19.0%	6.6%	12.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.41	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	82	346	66	23	11	100%	5.9	19.0%	6.8%	12.2%	3.2%	4.44	4.48	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	14	14	81	342	64	24	11	100%	5.8	18.8%	7.0%	11.8%	3.3%	4.52	4.59	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	77	325	60	24	11	100%	5.9	18.5%	7.3%	11.2%	3.5%	4.66	4.76	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	KC	12	12	71	300	54	23	11	100%	5.9	18.1%	7.7%	10.4%	3.7%	4.84	4.96	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	73	440	1856	347	129	61	100%	6.0	18.7%	7.0%	11.7%	3.3%	4.55	4.22	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	59	28	100%	6.0	18.7%	7.0%	11.7%	3.3%	4.55	4.22	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		85	81	452	1851	369	131	59	95%	5.3	19.9%	7.1%	12.8%	3.2%	3.62	4.07	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	36	200	818	163	58	26	95%	5.3	19.9%	7.1%	12.8%	3.2%	3.62	4.07	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 81 IPFIP 4.64 → 4.97 (+0.34)K% 19.2% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.17%	—	×0.860	16.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.06%	—	×0.900	7.25%
HR / BF /BF	3.89%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.28%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.64 → 4.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 51 IPFIP 2.48 → 3.11 (+0.63)K% 25.1% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.12%	—	×0.810	20.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.42%	—	×1.100	5.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.48%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.77%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.48 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 131 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.81 (+1.04)K% 25.1% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.14%	—	×0.810	20.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.57%	—	×1.100	7.22%
HR / BF /BF	3.56%	÷0.934	×1.200	4.58%

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 19 IPFIP 2.44 → 2.56 (+0.12)K% 17.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.19%	—	×0.860	14.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×0.900	5.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.961	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.44 → 2.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMississippi Braves · 79 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.52 (+0.83)K% 27.7% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.71%	—	×0.810	22.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.28%	—	×1.100	9.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.59%	÷0.906	×1.200	2.11%

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Rome Emperors · 64 IPFIP 2.73 → 3.99 (+1.26)K% 27.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.68%	—	×0.770	21.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.90%	—	×1.150	6.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.21%	÷0.831	×1.250	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 66).

Result: FIP 2.73 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAugusta GreenJackets · 17 IPFIP 1.11 → 1.79 (+0.68)K% 27.9% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.94%	—	×0.740	20.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.94%	—	×1.180	3.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 1.11 → 1.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Rome Braves · 10 IPFIP 4.10 → 5.56 (+1.46)K% 34.2% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.21%	—	×0.770	26.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.89%	—	×1.150	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷1.022	×1.250	6.44%

Result: FIP 4.10 → 5.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Braun (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.57	18.9%	12.3%	333	-0.05	—	—	—
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	89
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	87
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	85
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	84
M.D. Johnson R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	21.3%	7.1%	3.8%	.269	4.85	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.58	3.52	395	84
Jordan Pries R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP	4.29	14.0%	7.5%	2.6%	.307	4.43	17.4%	9.2%	131	+0.14	4.29	219	83
Mason Adams R 2024 · 3.72 FIP	24	SP	3.72	18.2%	5.9%	2.6%	.290	3.83	22.6%	13.3%	78	+0.11	3.67	307	83
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	82
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	82
Jack Mahoney R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.16	15.0%	4.8%	206	+0.25	3.80	326	82
Casey Delgado R 2015 · 3.88 FIP	25	SP	3.88	14.3%	5.6%	2.3%	.283	4.08	13.7%	3.9%	259	+0.20	3.88	364	82
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	82
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	82
Jake McCasland R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	25	SP	4.03	15.9%	7.5%	2.4%	.355	4.34	12.8%	3.3%	106	+0.31	3.07	367	82
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	82
Wes Parsons R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	18.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.274	4.01	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.45	3.00	483	81
Josh Roeder R 2018 · 4.74 FIP	25	SP	4.74	12.1%	6.0%	3.5%	.276	4.71	15.1%	6.4%	83	-0.03	4.71	175	81
Noah Zavolas R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	25	SP	4.86	19.6%	6.8%	4.7%	.288	5.99	16.4%	6.8%	62	+1.13	3.44	315	81
Ty Langenberg R 2024 · 3.49 FIP	22	SP	3.49	19.2%	7.6%	1.9%	.325	4.01	16.7%	6.8%	229	+0.52	3.49	337	81
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	98	18.6%	6.8%	1.36	4.67
Boof Bonser ('10)	2.1	104	18.2%	7.2%	1.36	5.18
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Alec Mills ('23)	1.3	86	19.3%	7.2%	1.50	5.00
Allen Ripley ('78-'82, 1 WAR*)	2.3	93	17.2%*	7.5%*	1.41*	5.06*
Bob Sadowski ('63-'66, 2 WAR*)	2.2	110	17.7%*	8.0%*	1.20*	4.73*
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.8	89	19.0%	6.6%	1.36	4.22