Lucas Braun
P
Columbus Clingstones
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.55
FIP4.55
K%19.8%
BB%6.7%
K-BB%13.0%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 150 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 6 | 27 | 106 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.7% | 3.5% | 17.2% | 0.0% | 2.67 | 1.79 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 6 | 27 | 106 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 30.2% | 4.7% | 25.5% | 1.9% | 2.67 | 2.25 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 144 | 585 | 162 | 42 | 11 | 96% | 5.7 | 21.9% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 3.2% | 3.26 | 4.02 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 24 | 144 | 585 | 162 | 42 | 11 | 96% | 5.7 | 27.7% | 7.2% | 20.5% | 1.9% | 3.26 | 2.72 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 150 | 597 | 145 | 39 | 19 | 96% | 5.5 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 12.6% | 4.4% | 3.67 | 4.75 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 26 | 150 | 597 | 145 | 39 | 19 | 96% | 5.5 | 24.3% | 6.5% | 17.8% | 3.2% | 3.67 | 3.59 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 16 | 15 | 80 | 341 | 72 | 22 | 6 | 94% | 5.0 | 17.5% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 2.0% | 3.81 | 3.61 | +1.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 293 | 58 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.8% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 150 | 634 | 130 | 42 | 16 | — | — | 20.5% | 6.6% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 4.15 | 4.04 | +2.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.8% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.17 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 91 | 385 | 78 | 26 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.3% | 6.7% | 13.6% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.46 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 91 | 385 | 80 | 26 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 6.7% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 4.42 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 90 | 379 | 78 | 26 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 87 | 367 | 76 | 26 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.6% | 7.0% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 4.50 | 4.53 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 83 | 351 | 72 | 25 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 4.60 | 4.66 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 78 | 330 | 73 | 22 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 15.3% | 3.8% | 4.58 | 4.57 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 73 | 307 | 67 | 22 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 14.5% | 4.0% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 284 | 60 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 13.7% | 4.3% | 4.88 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 54 | 21 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 4.6% | 5.10 | 5.25 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 34 | 11 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.3% | 6.7% | 13.6% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 53 | 17 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 6.7% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 61 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 64 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.6% | 7.0% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 4.50 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 63 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.4% | 7.3% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 4.60 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 65 | 20 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 15.3% | 3.8% | 4.58 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 61 | 20 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 14.5% | 4.0% | 4.70 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 55 | 20 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.2% | 7.5% | 13.7% | 4.3% | 4.88 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 51 | 19 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 12.7% | 4.6% | 5.10 | 5.25 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 96 | 96 | 575 | 2427 | 509 | 172 | 91 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 7.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | 4.63 | 4.30 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 60 | 32 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 7.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | 4.63 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 74 | 71 | 401 | 1629 | 328 | 117 | 52 | 96% | 5.4 | 20.1% | 7.2% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 3.48 | 4.06 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 35 | 200 | 813 | 164 | 58 | 26 | 96% | 5.4 | 20.1% | 7.2% | 13.0% | 3.2% | 3.48 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Braun (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 19.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | — | 4.44 | 20.6% | 13.8% | 272 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.95 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .266 | 5.04 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.09 | 3.95 | 279 | 89 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.66 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .298 | 5.01 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.20 | 416 | 88 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 88 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.67 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.85 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.18 | 3.67 | 523 | 87 |
| Mitchell Kilkenny R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.46 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 2.1% | .290 | 5.81 | 13.4% | 5.1% | 124 | +2.35 | 3.18 | 237 | 86 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.84 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.23 | 21.6% | 12.3% | 25 | +0.39 | 3.84 | 254 | 85 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 85 |
| Gabe Mosser R 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.79 | 17.7% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .346 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 6.9% | 104 | +0.84 | 3.79 | 606 | 85 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 84 |
| Mason Erla R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.95 | 14.9% | 6.0% | 2.5% | .309 | 4.99 | 14.9% | 4.6% | 124 | +1.04 | 3.12 | 206 | 84 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.77 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .279 | 4.10 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 216 | +0.33 | 3.74 | 459 | 83 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.32 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.09 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.23 | 3.09 | 129 | 83 |
| Brady Rodgers R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.84 | 15.5% | 5.2% | 2.5% | .326 | 2.99 | 18.1% | 13.6% | 189 | -0.85 | 1.98 | 354 | 83 |
| Luc Rennie R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.48 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | .352 | 5.49 | 14.5% | 5.7% | 209 | +2.01 | 3.48 | 265 | 82 |
| Joe Wieland R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.56 | 16.6% | 5.4% | 2.2% | .352 | 4.50 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 124 | +0.94 | 3.56 | 270 | 82 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.57 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.10 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.53 | 3.57 | 252 | 82 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.65 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 389 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 630 | 82 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.90 | 15.1% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .322 | 4.72 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 76 | -0.18 | 4.72 | 146 | 82 |
| Joe Ross R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.56 | 19.6% | 5.7% | 4.4% | .328 | 3.94 | 16.3% | 8.0% | 132 | -0.62 | 3.19 | 806 | 81 |
| Justin Vernia R 2025 · 5.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.07 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.46 | 14.7% | 10.2% | 79 | -0.61 | 4.42 | 193 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 81 | 20.8% | 7.0% | 1.43 | 4.60 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |
| Matt Andriese ('21) | 7 | 73 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 1.34 | 4.63 |
| Daniel Norris ('22) | 8 | 70 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 1.37 | 4.70 |
| Erasmo Ramírez ('24) | 8 | 78 | 18.1% | 5.8% | 1.40 | 4.33 |
| Luis Cessa ('23) | 8 | 53 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 1.40 | 4.43 |