Lucas Braun
P
Gwinnett Stripers
+1.1
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.5 · 2028
ERA4.49
FIP4.49
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.1%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%13.2%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Rome Braves | 6 | 6 | 27 | 106 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 20.7% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 2.67 | 1.79 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 25 | 24 | 144 | 585 | 162 | 42 | 11 | 21.9% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 3.26 | 3.75 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 27 | 26 | 150 | 597 | 145 | 39 | 19 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 3.67 | 4.59 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 3 | 3 | 15 | 64 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 9.6% | 6.6% | 1.7% | 2.45 | 4.06 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 107 | 40 | 17 | 21.1% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 135 | 571 | 114 | 44 | 18 | 20.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 4.27 | 4.44 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 122 | 44 | 18 | 21.6% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.41 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 129 | 46 | 19 | 21.8% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.37 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 132 | 47 | 19 | 21.8% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.37 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 132 | 47 | 20 | 21.8% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 128 | 46 | 19 | 21.6% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 123 | 46 | 19 | 21.4% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 24 | 24 | 131 | 553 | 117 | 45 | 19 | 21.2% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.58 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 111 | 44 | 19 | 20.9% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.62 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 105 | 43 | 18 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.71 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 98 | 41 | 18 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 4.81 | 4.88 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 90 | 40 | 17 | 19.9% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 4.92 | 5.00 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 83 | 38 | 17 | 19.5% | 9.1% | 3.9% | 5.05 | 5.13 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 75 | 37 | 16 | 19.0% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 5.19 | 5.28 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 59 | 335 | 1352 | 275 | 98 | 41 | 20.3% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 3.36 | 3.98 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 807 | 164 | 59 | 24 | 20.3% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 3.36 | 3.98 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Lucas Braun (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.49 | 21.1% | 7.9% | 3.3% | — | 4.38 | 21.7% | 14.0% | 417 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .266 | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.19 | 3.79 | 279 | 93 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 93 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 90 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.68 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.69 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.01 | 3.68 | 523 | 90 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 90 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 89 |
| Mitchell Kilkenny R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.64 | 17.6% | 5.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 5.79 | 13.4% | 5.1% | 124 | +2.15 | 3.18 | 237 | 89 |
| Edison Frias R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.90 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .318 | 4.18 | 13.7% | 3.5% | 166 | -0.72 | 4.14 | 279 | 89 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 88 |
| Martin Agosta R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.29 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | .340 | 4.59 | 12.3% | 5.7% | 40 | +0.30 | 4.29 | 146 | 88 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 229 | 88 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 88 |
| Chris Devenski R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .298 | 2.89 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 236 | -1.19 | 2.10 | 608 | 87 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.02 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.47 | 3.55 | 252 | 87 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .307 | 3.96 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 370 | -0.48 | 3.22 | 907 | 87 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 87 |
| Gabe Mosser R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.7% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .346 | 4.58 | 14.9% | 6.9% | 104 | +0.81 | 3.35 | 541 | 87 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.51 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.12 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.39 | 3.50 | 472 | 87 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 87 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .336 | 6.35 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.48 | 3.87 | 124 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.5 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.5 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $3M | +1.4 | $13M | +$10M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.2 | $11M | +$7M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.1 | $11M | +$5M |
| Totals | $15M | $75M | +$59M | ||