Lucas Braun — OGILVIE

Lucas Braun P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.7 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION127 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 101

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

K%19.7%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 135 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL4055

CMD4555

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$9M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	27	106	32	5	2	100%	4.5	20.7%	3.5%	17.2%	0.0%	2.67	1.79	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	27	106	32	5	2	100%	4.5	20.7%	3.5%	17.2%	0.0%	2.67	1.79	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	27	106	32	5	2	100%	4.5	30.2%	4.7%	25.5%	1.9%	2.67	2.25	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	144	585	162	42	11	96%	5.7	21.9%	8.0%	13.9%	2.7%	3.26	3.74	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	144	585	162	42	11	96%	5.7	21.9%	8.0%	13.9%	2.7%	3.26	3.74	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	144	585	162	42	11	96%	5.7	27.7%	7.2%	20.5%	1.9%	3.26	2.72	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	150	597	145	39	19	96%	5.5	19.7%	7.1%	12.7%	4.1%	3.67	4.57	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	150	597	145	39	19	96%	5.5	19.7%	7.1%	12.7%	4.1%	3.67	4.57	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	150	597	145	39	19	96%	5.5	24.3%	6.5%	17.8%	3.2%	3.67	3.59	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	26	24	127	542	112	39	16	92%	4.9	17.0%	6.9%	10.1%	3.3%	4.18	4.35	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	26	24	127	542	112	39	16	92%	4.9	17.0%	6.9%	10.1%	3.3%	4.18	4.35	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	KC	9	8	51	203	51	11	3	89%	5.6	25.1%	5.4%	19.7%	1.5%	3.20	2.48	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	KC	17	16	76	339	61	28	13	94%	4.5	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	3.8%	4.83	4.73	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	KC	1	1	8	32	6	2	1	100%	7.6	19.7%	6.6%	13.1%	3.3%	4.44	4.44	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	135	574	118	41	17	—	—	20.6%	7.2%	13.4%	3.0%	4.20	4.36	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	136	576	117	38	18	100%	5.9	20.3%	6.6%	13.7%	3.2%	4.39	4.37	+0.8
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	136	576	119	38	18	100%	5.9	20.6%	6.6%	14.0%	3.2%	4.35	4.33	+0.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	134	567	117	38	18	100%	6.1	20.7%	6.8%	13.9%	3.2%	4.36	4.37	+0.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	130	551	113	38	18	100%	5.9	20.6%	6.9%	13.6%	3.3%	4.41	4.45	+0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	124	526	107	38	18	100%	5.9	20.3%	7.2%	13.2%	3.5%	4.51	4.58	+0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	117	494	99	37	18	100%	5.8	20.0%	7.5%	12.5%	3.7%	4.66	4.76	+0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	109	461	90	36	18	100%	6.1	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	3.9%	4.84	4.96	-0.1
2034	32	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	101	426	81	35	18	100%	5.9	19.1%	8.2%	10.9%	4.2%	5.05	5.18	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	66	279	56	18	8	100%	6.0	20.3%	6.6%	13.7%	3.0%	4.26	4.24	+0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	95	401	83	27	12	100%	5.9	20.6%	6.6%	14.0%	3.0%	4.22	4.20	+0.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	106	448	92	30	13	100%	5.9	20.7%	6.8%	13.9%	3.0%	4.23	4.24	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	111	469	96	32	14	100%	6.2	20.6%	6.9%	13.6%	3.1%	4.27	4.31	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	110	464	94	33	15	100%	6.1	20.3%	7.2%	13.2%	3.2%	4.37	4.44	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	106	448	89	33	15	100%	5.9	20.0%	7.5%	12.5%	3.4%	4.51	4.61	+0.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	100	422	83	33	15	100%	5.9	19.6%	7.8%	11.8%	3.6%	4.68	4.80	-0.1
2034	32	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	94	397	76	33	15	100%	5.9	19.1%	8.2%	10.9%	3.8%	4.88	5.01	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	132	788	3327	670	240	109	100%	6.0	20.2%	7.2%	12.9%	3.3%	4.43	4.10	+7.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	170	61	28	100%	6.0	20.2%	7.2%	12.9%	3.3%	4.43	4.10	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		84	80	447	1830	360	130	58	95%	5.3	19.7%	7.1%	12.6%	3.2%	3.62	4.08	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	36	200	818	161	58	26	95%	5.3	19.7%	7.1%	12.6%	3.2%	3.62	4.08	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Braun (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	19.7%	6.6%	3.3%	—	4.36	20.5%	13.8%	407	-0.08	—	—	—
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	88
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.66	18.1%	11.3%	332	+0.97	3.69	523	88
Alex FaGalde R 2018 · 3.82 FIP	24	SP	3.82	19.1%	6.7%	2.7%	.266	5.04	16.1%	6.4%	162	+1.22	3.82	279	88
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.95	17.6%	8.5%	323	+0.34	4.35	416	87
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	86
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	651	86
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	85
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	85
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.28	19.1%	10.1%	247	+0.40	3.88	490	85
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.90	14.7%	5.0%	124	+0.79	3.11	206	85
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	83
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	83
Blake Adams R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP	3.40	18.6%	7.3%	1.7%	.333	4.00	17.0%	10.5%	306	+0.60	3.36	389	83
Brady Rodgers R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SP	3.92	15.5%	5.2%	2.7%	.326	2.99	18.1%	13.6%	189	-0.93	1.98	354	83
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	83
Joe Wieland R 2015 · 3.38 FIP	25	SP	3.38	16.6%	5.4%	1.8%	.352	4.27	18.6%	11.3%	124	+0.89	3.38	270	82
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.66	456	82
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	82
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.52	19.5%	13.8%	405	-0.79	2.69	522	81
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.4	120	20.1%	7.1%	1.34	4.54
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01