Yonny Chirinos

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.9 · 2027

Overview

AAASPExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	28	MIX4 levels	13	8	33	3.51	3.40	20.0%	6.4%	0.8	K 18.2% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.69
2023	29	MIX2 levels	25	13	104	5.26	4.76	15.5%	7.7%	0.8	K 14.9% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.73
2024	30	MIX2 levels	27	27	141	4.22	4.17	19.0%	8.1%	2.1	K 16.9% · BB 7.5% · FIP 4.44
2025	31	No MLB games played
2026	32	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	33	MLBMIA	2	2	16	4.55	4.58	20.4%	8.7%	0.2
2028PROJ	34	MLBMIA	19	19	124	4.66	4.79	19.6%	9.2%	0.7
2029PROJ	35	MLBMIA	15	15	97	4.93	5.12	18.6%	9.8%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service9.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$12M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

xwOBA vs30

FB Velo29

K%17

CompsKenshin Kawakami (age 34) · Jarrett Grube (age 33) · Cory Riordan (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.55

FIP4.58

K%20.4%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2993.0

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p1717.4%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 9.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+0.2	$0.6M	-$12M
Totals		$12M		$0.6M	-$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	64	259	50	7	3	83%	5.4	14.0%	3.3%	10.7%	1.4%	2.10	3.10	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	64	259	50	7	3	83%	5.4	19.3%	2.7%	16.6%	1.2%	2.10	2.48	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	17	129	532	83	16	10	59%	4.4	12.1%	3.4%	8.7%	2.3%	3.36	3.76	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	17	129	532	83	16	10	59%	4.4	15.6%	3.0%	12.6%	1.9%	3.36	3.19	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	168	650	141	26	15	96%	6.2	18.9%	4.2%	14.6%	2.5%	2.73	3.43	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	168	650	141	26	15	96%	6.2	21.7%	4.0%	17.7%	2.3%	2.73	3.05	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	16	122	509	108	32	14	59%	4.5	20.4%	6.1%	14.4%	3.0%	3.90	3.80	+2.3
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	16	122	509	108	32	14	59%	4.5	21.2%	6.3%	14.9%	2.8%	3.90	3.61	+2.7
2019	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	26	18	133	530	114	27	23	69%	5.1	21.5%	5.1%	16.4%	4.5%	3.85	4.38	+1.6
2019	25	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	26	18	133	530	114	27	23	69%	5.1	21.5%	5.1%	16.4%	4.3%	3.85	4.24	+1.8
2020	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	3	3	11	52	10	4	2	100%	3.8	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	4.0%	2.38	4.62	+0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	3	3	11	52	10	4	2	100%	3.8	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	3.8%	2.38	4.69	+0.1
2022	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	8	33	140	28	9	3	62%	2.6	18.2%	10.0%	8.2%	3.4%	3.51	4.69	+0.3
2022	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	8	33	140	28	9	3	62%	2.6	20.0%	6.4%	13.6%	2.1%	3.51	3.40	+0.8
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	13	104	453	70	35	16	52%	4.2	14.9%	7.5%	7.4%	3.5%	5.26	4.73	+0.8
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	13	104	453	70	35	16	52%	4.2	15.5%	7.7%	7.7%	3.5%	5.26	4.76	+0.8
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	141	617	117	50	18	100%	5.2	16.9%	7.5%	9.4%	3.3%	4.22	4.44	+1.6
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	141	617	117	50	18	100%	5.2	16.9%	7.5%	9.4%	3.3%	4.22	4.44	+1.6
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	141	617	117	50	18	100%	5.2	19.0%	8.1%	10.9%	2.9%	4.22	4.17	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			75	44	356	1493	283	95	54	59%	4.8	19.0%	6.4%	12.6%	3.6%	4.22	4.28	+4.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	MIA	2	2	16	68	14	6	2	100%	8.0	20.4%	8.7%	11.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.58	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	124	523	102	48	18	100%	6.5	19.6%	9.2%	10.3%	3.4%	4.75	4.88	+0.7
2029	35	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	97	409	76	40	15	100%	6.5	18.6%	9.8%	8.8%	3.8%	5.03	5.22	+0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	124	524	102	48	17	100%	6.5	19.6%	9.2%	10.3%	3.3%	4.66	4.79	+0.7
2029	35	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	97	410	76	40	15	100%	6.5	18.6%	9.8%	8.8%	3.6%	4.93	5.12	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		109	78	577	2425	461	183	86	72%	5.3	19.0%	7.6%	11.5%	3.5%	4.43	4.39	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	27	200	840	160	63	30	71%	5.3	19.0%	7.6%	11.5%	3.5%	4.43	4.39	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		189	138	907	3742	648	211	114	73%	4.8	17.3%	5.6%	11.7%	3.1%	3.64	4.03	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	30	200	825	143	46	25	73%	4.8	17.3%	5.6%	11.7%	3.1%	3.64	4.03	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 111 IPFIP 3.72 → 4.10 (+0.37)K% 19.5% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.45%	—	×0.860	16.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.82%	—	×0.900	7.04%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷0.925	×1.100	2.76%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.72 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAADurham Bulls · 19 IPFIP 3.25 → 3.34 (+0.10)K% 19.8% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.77%	—	×0.860	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.30%	—	×0.900	8.37%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷1.137	×1.100	1.13%

Result: FIP 3.25 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 16 IPFIP 4.31 → 4.69 (+0.38)K% 20.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.63%	—	×0.880	18.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.050	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷1.034	×1.100	3.38%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 4.31 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ACharleston RiverDogs · 6 IPFIP 4.02 → 5.23 (+1.20)K% 18.8% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.75%	—	×0.740	13.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.180	7.38%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷0.943	×1.300	4.31%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 4.02 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAADurham Bulls · 31 IPFIP 4.71 → 5.38 (+0.67)K% 23.7% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.66%	—	×0.880	20.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.34%	—	×1.050	5.61%
HR / BF /BF	5.34%	÷0.970	×1.100	6.06%

Result: FIP 4.71 → 5.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAADurham Bulls · 141 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.06 (+0.30)K% 22.0% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.98%	—	×0.880	19.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.03%	—	×1.050	4.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷1.049	×1.100	1.92%

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 27 IPFIP 4.52 → 5.40 (+0.88)K% 20.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.19%	—	×0.810	16.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.85%	—	×1.100	4.23%
HR / BF /BF	4.81%	÷1.008	×1.200	5.72%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 4.52 → 5.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 67 IPFIP 3.32 → 3.72 (+0.40)K% 15.1% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.09%	—	×0.810	12.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.21%	—	×1.100	4.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.75%	÷1.081	×1.200	1.95%

Result: FIP 3.32 → 3.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yonny Chirinos (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	5.03	19.1%	9.7%	221	+0.45	—	—	—
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	82
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	71
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	70
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	70
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	68
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	68
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	67
Junior Guerra R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SP	3.99	22.3%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.12	21.2%	9.1%	173	+0.13	3.18	646	66
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	65
Zach Neal R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	33	SP-	5.53	16.1%	5.7%	5.6%	.321	5.98	15.6%	9.6%	101	+0.45	4.24	732	61
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	61
Jonathan Castellanos R 2015 · 3.63 FIP	33	SP	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	1.3%	.313	4.15	11.8%	3.5%	216	+0.52	3.40	394	61
Chris Leroux R 2016 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	13.5%	8.0%	2.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	1.83	266	59
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	58
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	57
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	56
Donovan Hand R 2017 · 4.56 FIP	31	SP	4.56	12.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	305	56
Daniel McCutchen R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	33	SP	4.74	10.8%	5.9%	3.3%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	476	56
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	55
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	106	19.3%	7.9%	1.35	4.49
Colby Lewis ('16)	6.1	135	18.4%	7.2%	1.32	4.70
Dennis Bennett ('62-'68, 7 WAR*)	4.3	123	19.8%*	8.1%*	1.41*	4.40*
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Jim McAndrew ('68-'74, 6 WAR*)	3.9	110	17.4%*	6.6%*	1.29*	4.35*
Mike Fiers ('21)	5.8	128	20.5%	7.0%	1.44	4.07
Tommy Boggs ('76-'85, 3 WAR*)	2.9	97	16.4%*	8.1%*	1.24*	4.77*