Franly Urena — OGILVIE

Franly Urena P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 22 RHP 5'8" / 160 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 122

ERA5.55

FIP5.55

K%20.5%

BB%17.0%

K-BB%3.6%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	13	2	19	91	15	9	3	15%	1.5	11.2%	12.4%	-1.2%	4.3%	4.26	6.06	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	13	2	19	91	15	9	3	15%	1.5	11.2%	12.4%	-1.2%	4.3%	4.26	6.06	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	13	2	19	91	15	9	3	15%	1.5	16.5%	9.9%	6.6%	3.3%	4.26	4.99	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	5	41	191	47	31	5	26%	2.2	16.2%	17.0%	-0.8%	5.1%	4.17	6.71	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	5	41	191	47	31	5	26%	2.2	16.2%	17.0%	-0.8%	5.1%	4.17	6.71	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	5	41	191	47	31	5	26%	2.2	24.6%	16.2%	8.4%	2.6%	4.17	4.66	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	16	0	18	92	24	16	1	0%	1.1	17.7%	21.7%	-4.0%	1.4%	6.38	5.13	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	16	0	18	92	24	16	1	0%	1.1	17.7%	21.7%	-4.0%	1.4%	6.38	5.13	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	16	0	18	92	24	16	1	0%	1.1	26.1%	17.4%	8.7%	1.1%	6.38	3.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	35	1	54	235	61	36	5	3%	1.5	19.4%	18.0%	1.4%	2.7%	3.52	5.25	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	35	1	54	235	61	36	5	3%	1.5	19.4%	18.0%	1.4%	2.7%	3.52	5.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	TOR	27	1	41	177	49	27	4	4%	1.5	27.7%	15.3%	12.4%	2.3%	3.51	3.93	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	TOR	8	0	13	58	12	9	1	0%	1.6	20.7%	15.5%	5.2%	1.7%	3.55	4.26	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TOR	52	0	55	231	50	33	7	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.5%	7.1%	3.0%	5.24	5.12	-0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	53	0	56	236	53	30	7	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.9%	9.4%	2.9%	4.98	4.84	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	TOR	26	0	27	114	25	17	3	0%	1.0	21.6%	14.5%	7.1%	3.0%	5.24	5.12	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	37	0	39	165	37	21	5	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.9%	9.4%	2.9%	4.98	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	66	278	61	38	8	0%	1.0	22.0%	13.5%	8.4%	2.9%	5.09	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	115	24	0%	1.1	22.0%	13.5%	8.4%	2.9%	5.09	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		83	8	132	609	103	106	21	10%	1.6	16.9%	17.4%	-0.5%	3.5%	4.23	5.81	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	12	200	923	156	161	33	10%	1.6	16.9%	17.4%	-0.5%	3.5%	4.23	5.81	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Franly Urena (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.55	20.5%	17.0%	3.0%	—	4.98	21.9%	8.2%	111	-0.57	—	—	—
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	90
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	90
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	89
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	89
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	88
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.10	167	88
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	87
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	86
Miguel Alfonseca R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	20.1%	16.4%	2.4%	.354	5.73	11.6%	-3.8%	56	+0.95	4.19	123	86
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	86
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	85
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	85
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	85
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	85
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	85
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	85
Audry Lugo R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	22	SU	4.82	17.6%	15.8%	2.2%	.333	5.76	13.7%	-2.6%	39	+0.94	4.05	113	84
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	84
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	83
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	41	21.8%	14.0%	1.14	5.16
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84