Styven Paez

P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 170 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKATL	5	7	5.40	2.95	17.2%	10.3%	—	K 17.2% · BB 10.3% · FIP 2.95
2026	21	AATL	32	41	5.49	3.54	21.9%	13.3%	—	K 16.2% · BB 15.7% · FIP 4.44
2027PROJ	22	MLBATL	23	24	5.25	5.25	19.0%	14.4%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBATL	18	19	4.99	4.89	20.5%	12.6%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJunior Rincon (age 23) · Tyler Smith (age 22) · Kasey Ford (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%19.0%

BB%14.4%

K-BB%4.6%

Proj IP24

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	11	5	32	145	30	16	2	45%	2.9	14.1%	13.8%	0.3%	2.4%	5.34	4.96	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	11	5	32	145	30	16	2	45%	2.9	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	1.4%	5.34	3.54	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	5	0	7	29	5	3	0	0%	1.3	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	0.0%	5.40	2.95	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	5	0	7	29	5	3	0	0%	1.3	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	0.0%	5.40	2.95	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	5	0	7	29	5	3	0	0%	1.3	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	0.0%	5.40	2.95	—
2026	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	32	0	41	196	43	26	2	0%	1.3	16.2%	15.7%	0.6%	1.3%	5.49	4.44	—
2026	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	32	0	41	196	43	26	2	0%	1.3	16.2%	15.7%	0.6%	1.3%	5.49	4.44	—
2026	21	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	32	0	41	196	43	26	2	0%	1.3	21.9%	13.3%	8.7%	1.0%	5.49	3.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	ATL	23	0	24	101	19	15	3	0%	1.0	19.0%	14.4%	4.6%	2.8%	5.25	5.25	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	ATL	36	0	38	162	33	20	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.6%	7.9%	2.8%	4.99	4.89	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	ATL	18	0	19	80	16	10	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.6%	7.9%	2.8%	4.99	4.89	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	80	16	10	2	0%	1.0	20.5%	12.6%	7.9%	2.8%	4.99	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	170	106	21	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.6%	7.9%	2.8%	4.99	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		48	5	80	370	57	54	6	10%	1.7	15.5%	14.5%	1.0%	1.6%	5.42	4.53	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	13	200	929	144	135	15	10%	1.7	15.5%	14.5%	1.0%	1.6%	5.42	4.53	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Styven Paez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	19.0%	14.4%	2.8%	—	4.89	20.5%	7.9%	38	-0.36	—	—	—
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	92
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	91
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	91
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	90
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	89
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	89
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	89
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	89
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	88
Randy Messenger R 2005 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	16.3%	12.9%	2.8%	.281	3.93	13.8%	7.1%	137	-0.97	3.56	174	88
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	88
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	88
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	88
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	525	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Hobie Harris R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	22	SU	4.28	18.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.239	3.36	21.2%	12.0%	144	-0.92	3.31	476	87
Samuel Carpio R 2024 · 4.20 FIP	21	SU	4.20	21.2%	15.3%	1.7%	.300	5.36	21.6%	-3.4%	112	+1.16	4.20	134	87
Stefan Raeth R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	22	SU	4.62	18.0%	15.4%	2.0%	.309	4.73	17.5%	8.3%	124	+0.11	4.51	173	87
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	87
Luke Stofel R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	22	SU	4.26	17.6%	12.4%	2.0%	.328	4.42	14.0%	1.8%	147	+0.16	4.26	188	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	19.9%	13.3%	1.09	5.09
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43