Jordan Valenzuela

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDSL Padres Br…	14	2	31	8.22	3.62	22.7%	18.7%	—	K 15.4% · BB 23.3% · FIP 4.75
2025	20	MIX2 levels	27	0	34	7.86	3.94	21.1%	19.4%	—	K 15.0% · BB 23.5% · FIP 4.81
2026	21	MIX2 levels	35	0	47	4.63	3.42	32.6%	20.0%	—	K 23.1% · BB 24.2% · FIP 4.88
2027PROJ	22	MLBSD	24	0	25	5.73	5.73	21.3%	20.0%	-0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSD	20	0	21	5.37	5.22	22.3%	16.7%	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 97%

CompsHudson Leach (age 22) · Will Varmette (age 21) · James Acuna (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.73

FIP5.73

K%21.3%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.3%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	13	0	22	122	24	28	1	0%	1.7	13.4%	28.7%	-15.3%	1.2%	9.14	6.28	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	13	0	22	122	24	28	1	0%	1.7	19.7%	23.0%	-3.3%	0.8%	9.14	5.36	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	14	2	31	150	34	28	0	14%	2.2	15.4%	23.3%	-7.9%	0.0%	8.22	4.75	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	14	2	31	150	34	28	0	14%	2.2	15.4%	23.3%	-7.9%	0.0%	8.22	4.75	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	14	2	31	150	34	28	0	14%	2.2	22.7%	18.7%	4.0%	0.0%	8.22	3.62	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	34	180	38	35	0	0%	1.3	15.0%	23.5%	-8.5%	0.0%	7.86	4.81	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	34	180	38	35	0	0%	1.3	15.0%	23.5%	-8.5%	0.0%	7.86	4.81	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	34	180	38	35	0	0%	1.3	21.1%	19.4%	1.7%	0.0%	7.86	3.94	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	47	215	70	43	2	0%	1.3	23.1%	24.2%	-1.1%	1.2%	4.63	4.88	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	47	215	70	43	2	0%	1.3	23.1%	24.2%	-1.1%	1.2%	4.63	4.88	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	47	215	70	43	2	0%	1.3	32.6%	20.0%	12.6%	0.9%	4.63	3.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SD	24	0	25	106	23	21	3	0%	1.0	21.3%	20.0%	1.3%	2.8%	5.73	5.73	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	42	0	44	184	41	31	5	0%	1.0	22.3%	16.7%	5.5%	2.7%	5.37	5.22	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	20	0	21	89	20	15	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	16.7%	5.5%	2.7%	5.37	5.22	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	0	21	91	20	15	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	16.7%	5.5%	2.7%	5.37	4.84	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	140	19	0%	1.1	22.3%	16.7%	5.5%	2.7%	5.37	4.84	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		89	2	133	667	116	164	4	2%	1.5	17.4%	24.6%	-7.2%	0.6%	7.02	5.09	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	3	200	1000	174	247	6	2%	1.5	17.4%	24.6%	-7.2%	0.6%	7.02	5.09	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Valenzuela (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.73	21.3%	20.0%	2.8%	—	5.22	22.3%	5.5%	44	-0.51	—	—	—
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	94
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	90
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	89
Saul Teran R 2024 · 5.21 FIP	22	SU	5.21	22.4%	18.8%	2.9%	.279	4.40	20.1%	10.7%	84	-0.81	2.28	166	89
Carlos Contreras R 2014 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	20.2%	18.1%	2.0%	.304	4.35	18.4%	5.0%	107	-0.42	4.29	127	89
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	89
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	88
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	88
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	88
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	88
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	87
Jonathan Teaney R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	22.5%	19.8%	1.9%	.328	5.65	16.4%	0.7%	55	+0.88	4.77	108	87
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	87
Connor Walsh R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	22	SU	4.76	23.3%	20.7%	1.8%	.288	3.98	21.3%	6.8%	151	-0.78	3.36	266	87
Miguel Alfonseca R 2022 · 4.78 FIP	22	SU	4.78	20.1%	16.4%	2.4%	.354	5.73	11.6%	-3.8%	56	+0.95	4.19	123	87
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	87
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	87
Yoel Espinal R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	22	SU	4.63	21.0%	21.4%	1.1%	.284	4.52	22.9%	5.6%	157	-0.11	3.86	231	87
Franklyn German R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.313	5.27	13.1%	0.1%	86	+0.10	3.37	152	87
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	86

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	21.9%	17.9%	1.06	5.50
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*