Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Tigers 2 | 14 | 3 | 22 | 98 | 28 | 20 | 0 | 21% | 1.6 | 19.4% | 25.5% | -6.1% | 0.0% | 2.82 | 4.69 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Tigers 2 | 14 | 3 | 22 | 98 | 28 | 20 | 0 | 21% | 1.6 | 28.6% | 20.4% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 2.82 | 3.28 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tigers 2 | 19 | 1 | 31 | 131 | 36 | 15 | 1 | 5% | 1.6 | 18.7% | 14.3% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 4.65 | 3.93 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tigers 2 | 19 | 1 | 31 | 131 | 36 | 15 | 1 | 5% | 1.6 | 27.5% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 0.8% | 4.65 | 2.65 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 12 | 12 | 45 | 201 | 45 | 25 | 2 | 100% | 3.8 | 15.2% | 15.5% | -0.3% | 0.3% | 3.38 | 3.92 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 12 | 12 | 45 | 201 | 45 | 25 | 2 | 100% | 3.8 | 22.4% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 1.0% | 3.38 | 3.34 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | ROK | FCL Tigers | 18 | 0 | 27 | 120 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 13.0% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 5.00 | 5.88 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | DET | 42 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 30 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 15.9% | 0.1% | 2.8% | 5.68 | 5.68 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | DET | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.0% | 15.9% | 0.1% | 2.8% | 5.68 | 5.68 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | DET | — | — | 72 | 308 | 53 | 40 | 9 | — | — | 17.3% | 13.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 5.42 | 5.76 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | DET | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 35 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.41 | 5.32 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | DET | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 37 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 13.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | DET | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.41 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | DET | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 26 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 13.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 5.10 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 43 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 13.6% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 5.28 | 4.81 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 154 | 114 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 13.6% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 5.28 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 63 | 16 | 126 | 550 | 90 | 88 | 8 | 25% | 2.0 | 16.3% | 15.9% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 3.94 | 4.49 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 25 | 200 | 875 | 143 | 139 | 12 | 25% | 2.0 | 16.3% | 15.9% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 3.94 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Frenny Grant (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.68 | 16.0% | 15.9% | 2.8% | — | 5.21 | 18.2% | 4.5% | 94 | -0.47 | — | — | — |
| Cole Reynolds L 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.81 | 16.4% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .304 | 5.26 | 17.3% | 0.4% | 52 | +0.45 | 4.81 | 108 | 85 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.77 | 16.9% | 16.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.67 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 179 | -0.10 | 4.57 | 242 | 84 |
| Jack O'Loughlin L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.15 | 17.0% | 13.7% | 3.2% | .269 | 4.98 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 239 | -0.17 | 3.83 | 348 | 82 |
| Matt Minnick L 2027 · 5.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.59 | 17.2% | 14.1% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.65 | 23.5% | 12.1% | 105 | -0.94 | 3.77 | 147 | 82 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2027 · 5.61 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.61 | 12.6% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .266 | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 101 | -1.53 | 3.54 | 146 | 81 |
| Marino Santy L 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.93 | 17.6% | 16.1% | 2.3% | .322 | 4.04 | 21.6% | 3.0% | 65 | -0.89 | 2.78 | 253 | 80 |
| Kikito Severino L 2025 · 5.70 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.70 | 11.9% | 19.5% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 135 | 79 |
| Austin Hamilton L 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.92 | 17.0% | 15.6% | 2.3% | .329 | 4.18 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 109 | -0.74 | 4.06 | 135 | 79 |
| Max Green L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.97 | 15.7% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .352 | 4.40 | 13.9% | 6.6% | 86 | -0.57 | 4.23 | 169 | 78 |
| Colby Langford L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.24 | 21.6% | 22.5% | 2.0% | .273 | 6.09 | 22.9% | -1.5% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.82 | 153 | 78 |
| Trevor Seidenberger L 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.63 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .248 | 6.50 | 13.1% | -1.8% | 52 | +1.87 | 4.63 | 101 | 77 |
| Oscar Armenta L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.14 | 10.4% | 15.7% | 1.7% | .335 | 3.84 | 7.0% | -3.5% | 11 | -1.30 | 3.84 | 118 | 77 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 19.3% | 15.7% | 2.2% | .329 | 5.86 | 17.6% | 2.4% | 49 | +1.22 | 4.64 | 107 | 77 |
| Bryan Warzek L 2026 · 5.96 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.96 | 17.7% | 24.4% | 2.3% | .328 | 6.90 | 20.2% | 1.9% | 73 | +0.94 | 1.84 | 138 | 77 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2028 · 5.05 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.05 | 18.9% | 17.6% | 2.4% | .315 | 4.92 | 19.3% | 7.1% | 107 | -0.13 | 4.28 | 127 | 77 |
| Bryce Hubbart L 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.82 | 17.0% | 26.0% | 1.6% | .303 | 5.00 | 17.4% | 3.9% | 136 | -0.82 | 4.73 | 181 | 76 |
| Justin Kelly L 2027 · 4.96 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.96 | 13.4% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .421 | 3.70 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 123 | -1.26 | 3.48 | 160 | 76 |
| Felix Polanco L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.04 | 18.7% | 19.9% | 1.8% | .290 | 3.64 | 18.8% | 12.8% | 27 | -1.40 | 3.64 | 105 | 76 |
| Alex Katz L 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.10 | 14.4% | 18.0% | 1.7% | .314 | 4.55 | 16.3% | 1.2% | 56 | -0.55 | 2.69 | 240 | 76 |
| Chris Reed L 2029 · 4.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.92 | 15.4% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .284 | 4.84 | 16.4% | 6.6% | 81 | -0.08 | 4.84 | 137 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 46 | 17.5% | 14.4% | 1.08 | 5.42 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |