Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Stockton Ports | 28 | 3 | 47 | 233 | 63 | 30 | 5 | 11% | 1.7 | 20.0% | 15.2% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 7.85 | 4.58 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Stockton Ports | 28 | 3 | 47 | 233 | 63 | 30 | 5 | 11% | 1.7 | 27.0% | 12.9% | 14.2% | 2.1% | 7.85 | 3.72 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 11 | 1 | 19 | 91 | 25 | 12 | 5 | 9% | 1.7 | 20.3% | 15.6% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 9.64 | 7.27 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | OAK | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 44 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 15.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 5.30 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.0% | 15.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 5.30 | 5.30 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 71 | 312 | 69 | 45 | 11 | — | — | 22.2% | 14.5% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 6.44 | 5.82 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 47 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 13.4% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 5.08 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 49 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 4.83 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 50 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.82 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 13.4% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 5.08 | 5.01 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 33 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 39 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.82 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 97 | 0 | 102 | 431 | 92 | 54 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 4.47 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 180 | 106 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 39 | 4 | 66 | 324 | 65 | 50 | 12 | 10% | 1.7 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 8.36 | 5.34 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 119 | 12 | 200 | 987 | 198 | 151 | 36 | 10% | 1.7 | 20.1% | 15.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 8.36 | 5.34 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blake Hammond (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.30 | 20.0% | 15.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.87 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 162 | -0.43 | — | — | — |
| Jhonny Polanco R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 48 | -0.84 | 3.92 | 116 | 92 |
| James Acuna R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.89 | 21.3% | 17.0% | 2.6% | .302 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 60 | -0.66 | 4.23 | 107 | 91 |
| Junior Rincon R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.93 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .318 | 3.77 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 82 | -1.16 | 3.50 | 113 | 90 |
| Alaska Abney R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.83 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.88 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 104 | -0.95 | 3.31 | 207 | 89 |
| Blake Holub R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 21.7% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.90 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 156 | -0.41 | 3.31 | 236 | 89 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.55 | 18.3% | 14.4% | 2.1% | .265 | 4.56 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 58 | +0.01 | 4.55 | 155 | 89 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.28 | 21.9% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .295 | 5.27 | 18.8% | 4.5% | 93 | -0.01 | 3.94 | 189 | 88 |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.33 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.09 | 3.96 | 242 | 88 |
| Sal Biasi R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.19 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.3% | .295 | 7.85 | 15.3% | -0.2% | 23 | +2.66 | 4.68 | 188 | 88 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 88 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 88 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.76 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 3.0% | .254 | 4.52 | 17.5% | 6.3% | 154 | -0.24 | 4.09 | 183 | 87 |
| David Trexler R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.91 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.47 | 4.44 | 100 | 87 |
| Cole Hillier R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 16.9% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.61 | 18.4% | 4.4% | 95 | -0.08 | 3.72 | 153 | 87 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 87 |
| Hayden Snelsire R 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.59 | 18.9% | 13.8% | 4.3% | .272 | 4.38 | 19.3% | 12.7% | 111 | -1.21 | 3.94 | 155 | 87 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 87 |
| Matt Brill R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.94 | 20.8% | 16.3% | 2.8% | .248 | 3.84 | 19.4% | 4.9% | 60 | -1.10 | 3.75 | 161 | 87 |
| Gabriel Ponce R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 20.5% | 14.5% | 2.2% | .238 | 4.73 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 61 | +0.31 | 4.42 | 161 | 87 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 21.0% | 13.3% | 1.12 | 5.02 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |