Ariel ArmasC
Knoxville Smokies
Age 23
R/R
5'10" / 185 lbs
AA
BB +5%HR -4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 2.0 · 2030
wRC+†67
AVG/OBP/SLG.223 / .292 / .338
PA320
HR6
SB7
K%23
BB%8
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
30↗36
PWR
35↘34
SPD
40↘37
FLD
50↗61
EYE
48↘45
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.9peak
2030
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.9 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.7 | $16M | +$13M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.4 | $14M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.1 | $11M | +$6M |
| Totals | $15M | $92M | +$77M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 57 | 51 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .157 | .246 | .216 | .461 | .059 | .211 | 23 | 9 | .222 | 28 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 381 | 346 | 67 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 84 | 8 | 11 | 4 | .194 | .266 | .283 | .549 | .090 | .243 | 22 | 7 | .240 | 42 | -25 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +11 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 60 | 52 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .192 | .288 | .231 | .519 | .038 | .256 | 23 | 12 | .233 | 37 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CHC | 260 | 234 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 59 | 3 | 5 | 1 | .222 | .295 | .329 | .624 | .107 | .276 | 23 | 8 | .282 | 74 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +7 | 0.6 |
| TOT | 23 | MLB | CHC | 320 | 286 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 73 | 3 | 7 | 1 | .217 | .293 | .311 | .605 | .094 | .275 | 23 | 9 | .273 | 67 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +9 | 0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB 8% | CHC | 420 | 374 | 86 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 83 | 5 | 7 | 1 | .230 | .309 | .353 | .662 | .123 | .269 | 20 | 9 | .296 | 84 | -7 | +1 | +1 | +8 | +12 | 1.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB 17% | CHC | 455 | 405 | 93 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 90 | 5 | 6 | 1 | .230 | .310 | .353 | .663 | .123 | .272 | 20 | 9 | .301 | 89 | -6 | +1 | +1 | +8 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB 25% | CHC | 475 | 422 | 97 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 95 | 6 | 6 | 1 | .230 | .311 | .358 | .669 | .128 | .273 | 20 | 9 | .304 | 91 | -5 | +1 | +1 | +8 | +13 | 1.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB 35% | CHC | 481 | 427 | 98 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 45 | 97 | 6 | 6 | 1 | .230 | .312 | .356 | .668 | .126 | .274 | 20 | 9 | .305 | 91 | -5 | +1 | +1 | +9 | +14 | 2.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB 40% | CHC | 481 | 426 | 98 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 97 | 6 | 5 | 1 | .230 | .314 | .357 | .671 | .127 | .273 | 20 | 10 | .303 | 90 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +9 | +14 | 1.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB 44% | CHC | 474 | 420 | 96 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 45 | 97 | 6 | 5 | 0 | .229 | .312 | .357 | .669 | .129 | .272 | 20 | 9 | .301 | 89 | -6 | +1 | -0 | +8 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB 52% | CHC | 465 | 413 | 93 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 97 | 5 | 4 | 0 | .225 | .307 | .346 | .654 | .121 | .271 | 21 | 9 | .298 | 86 | -7 | +1 | -1 | +8 | +13 | 1.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB 56% | CHC | 438 | 388 | 87 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 42 | 93 | 5 | 3 | 0 | .224 | .308 | .343 | .651 | .119 | .270 | 21 | 10 | .294 | 84 | -8 | +1 | -2 | +8 | +12 | 1.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB 67% | CHC | 408 | 361 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 89 | 5 | 3 | 0 | .216 | .301 | .324 | .625 | .108 | .268 | 22 | 10 | .290 | 80 | -9 | +1 | -3 | +7 | +12 | 0.8 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB 77% | CHC | 369 | 327 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 83 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .214 | .298 | .318 | .616 | .104 | .267 | 22 | 9 | .284 | 76 | -10 | +0 | -3 | +7 | +10 | 0.4 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB 88% | CHC | 317 | 281 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 74 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .210 | .293 | .313 | .606 | .103 | .265 | 23 | 9 | .278 | 71 | -10 | +0 | -4 | +6 | +9 | 0.0 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 261 | 232 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 64 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .203 | .286 | .302 | .587 | .099 | .262 | 25 | 9 | .271 | 65 | -10 | +0 | -5 | +5 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 204 | 181 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 52 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .204 | .287 | .304 | .591 | .099 | .259 | 25 | 9 | .262 | 59 | -10 | +0 | -6 | +4 | +6 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 5946 | 5288 | 1166 | 243 | 23 | 107 | 545 | 1267 | 73 | 69 | 10 | .220 | .302 | .336 | .638 | .115 | .269 | 21 | 9 | .290 | 80 | -136 | +10 | -21 | +106 | +168 | 13.0 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 578 | 129 | 27 | 3 | 12 | 60 | 139 | 8 | 8 | 1 | .223 | .305 | .343 | .648 | .119 | .272 | 21 | 9 | .290 | 80 | -15 | +1 | -2 | +12 | +18 | 1.4 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 57 | 49 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .204 | .316 | .286 | .602 | .082 | .256 | 18 | 12 | .284 | 75 | -2 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 381 | 334 | 78 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 70 | 8 | 11 | 4 | .234 | .326 | .347 | .674 | .114 | .281 | 18 | 10 | .308 | 94 | -2 | +1 | — | — | +11 | 0.9 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Ariel Armas (OGILVIE) | 23 | 30→36 | 35→34 | 40→37 | 45 | .223/.292/.338 | .115 | .278 | 6 | 5 | 23% | 8% | 78 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Blake Ochoa 2009 · A |
23 | 44 | 41→45 | 40 | 45 | .214/.268/.311 | .097 | .267 | 8 | 5 | 22% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .237/.297/.376 | .139 | .286 | 15 | 5 | 22% | 7% | 89 | +0.9 | .250/.315/.422 | .172 | .289 | 21 | 2 | 21% | 7% | 109 | +0.7 |
|
✕Renae Martinez 2018 · A |
24 | 45→32 | 43→50 | 41→40 | 44 | .225/.279/.334 | .109 | .278 | 11 | 5 | 23% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .218/.277/.327 | .109 | .287 | 11 | 3 | 27% | 6% | 68 | -0.5 | .193/.260/.302 | .109 | .265 | 11 | 2 | 30% | 7% | 51 | -0.9 |
|
✕Wyatt Toregas 2007 · AA |
24 | 45→38 | 42→45 | 38→40 | 43 | .222/.272/.323 | .102 | .275 | 9 | 3 | 23% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .227/.279/.346 | .119 | .268 | 13 | 4 | 20% | 6% | 73 | -0.1 | .222/.276/.342 | .120 | .254 | 15 | 2 | 19% | 6% | 70 | -0.2 |
|
✕Orlando Mercado 2008 · A |
23 | 43 | 45 | 41→40 | 55 | .216/.303/.339 | .123 | .243 | 13 | 4 | 17% | 10% | 82 | +0.5 | .224/.304/.309 | .085 | .260 | 7 | 3 | 16% | 10% | 74 | -0.1 | .233/.294/.298 | .065 | .270 | 5 | 2 | 15% | 8% | 65 | -0.4 |
|
✕Michael Paez 2018 · A |
23 | 42→44 | 43→45 | 41→40 | 46 | .206/.284/.323 | .116 | .268 | 10 | 7 | 26% | 8% | 70 | -0.3 | .209/.275/.311 | .102 | .266 | 9 | 5 | 24% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .203/.267/.293 | .089 | .254 | 8 | 2 | 22% | 7% | 53 | -1.1 |
|
✕Niko Vasquez 2012 · AA |
23 | 39→41 | 43→50 | 40→45 | 46 | .196/.269/.309 | .112 | .266 | 11 | 3 | 29% | 8% | 60 | -1.0 | .200/.265/.306 | .106 | .264 | 9 | 4 | 26% | 8% | 57 | -1.2 | .227/.282/.376 | .149 | .290 | 19 | 6 | 28% | 6% | 81 | +0.2 |
|
✕Marcus Greene Jr. 2018 · A |
23 | 39 | 47→50 | 43→40 | 43 | .204/.266/.339 | .135 | .261 | 15 | 5 | 28% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .214/.269/.320 | .106 | .298 | 11 | 5 | 30% | 6% | 62 | -0.9 | .199/.250/.262 | .063 | .298 | 6 | 0 | 34% | 6% | 34 | -0.9 |
|
✕Tyler Ogle 2014 · A |
23 | 45→44 | 46→50 | 40→30 | 56 | .224/.317/.350 | .126 | .261 | 13 | 5 | 19% | 10% | 92 | +1.2 | .220/.301/.362 | .142 | .269 | 16 | 3 | 24% | 9% | 87 | +0.8 | .208/.283/.360 | .152 | .254 | 19 | 0 | 26% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Aaron McKeithan 2023 · A |
23 | 45 | 40 | 45→40 | 44 | .215/.290/.307 | .093 | .291 | 8 | 4 | 28% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .217/.295/.297 | .080 | .272 | 8 | 4 | 22% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .202/.287/.263 | .061 | .244 | 8 | 1 | 19% | 7% | 57 | -0.4 |
|
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A |
22 | 43 | 42→40 | 46→45 | 48 | .209/.289/.317 | .108 | .281 | 9 | 6 | 28% | 9% | 70 | -0.3 | .221/.304/.311 | .090 | .312 | 8 | 6 | 29% | 9% | 75 | -0.0 | .236/.329/.308 | .072 | .330 | 7 | 6 | 28% | 11% | 83 | +0.2 |
|
✕Pedro Pagés 2022 · A |
23 | 44→43 | 43→50 | 43→40 | 42 | .213/.279/.319 | .107 | .302 | 11 | 5 | 32% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .210/.275/.334 | .124 | .293 | 14 | 4 | 31% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .224/.283/.362 | .138 | .282 | 18 | 2 | 26% | 7% | 78 | +0.1 |
|
✕Eddie Silva 2019 · A |
23 | 49→30 | 45→50 | 44→45 | 40 | .242/.285/.368 | .126 | .300 | 11 | 8 | 23% | 4% | 81 | +0.4 | .193/.244/.289 | .096 | .253 | 9 | 5 | 27% | 4% | 43 | -2.2 | .158/.212/.237 | .079 | .207 | 8 | 2 | 28% | 3% | 14 | -3.5 |
|
✕Drew Ellis 2019 · A |
23 | 40→37 | 47→55 | 38→40 | 45 | .206/.269/.343 | .137 | .257 | 14 | 4 | 26% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .204/.281/.355 | .151 | .268 | 17 | 3 | 29% | 9% | 77 | +0.1 | .182/.281/.358 | .176 | .233 | 21 | 4 | 31% | 10% | 76 | +0.0 |
|
✕Luis Alvarez 2013 · A |
23 | 44 | 44→45 | 46→45 | 42 | .220/.276/.333 | .113 | .274 | 11 | 6 | 24% | 5% | 69 | -0.4 | .222/.273/.352 | .130 | .285 | 14 | 6 | 27% | 5% | 72 | -0.2 | .210/.253/.368 | .158 | .249 | 21 | 0 | 25% | 3% | 66 | -0.1 |
|
✕Jakson Reetz 2019 · A |
23 | 40→34 | 40→60 | 39→45 | 42 | .196/.270/.285 | .090 | .278 | 8 | 5 | 31% | 7% | 55 | -1.4 | .198/.276/.316 | .118 | .286 | 13 | 5 | 33% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .197/.277/.397 | .201 | .245 | 26 | 4 | 31% | 7% | 84 | +0.3 |
|
✕Jose Vizcaino Jr. 2017 · A |
23 | 45→40 | 43→45 | 42→45 | 42 | .220/.279/.333 | .113 | .295 | 10 | 6 | 28% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .207/.255/.297 | .090 | .306 | 7 | 8 | 33% | 5% | 50 | -1.8 | .193/.235/.267 | .074 | .295 | 6 | 8 | 35% | 4% | 31 | -2.3 |
|
✕Donny Sands 2019 · A |
23 | 46 | 38→45 | 39→40 | 40 | .223/.263/.302 | .080 | .287 | 6 | 4 | 24% | 5% | 54 | -1.4 | .208/.257/.308 | .100 | .276 | 9 | 4 | 27% | 5% | 53 | -1.5 | .228/.289/.352 | .124 | .275 | 14 | 2 | 22% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 |
|
✕Michael Barash 2018 · A |
23 | 42 | 44→45 | 42→45 | 44 | .210/.272/.323 | .113 | .275 | 12 | 3 | 28% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .209/.283/.332 | .123 | .280 | 13 | 6 | 28% | 9% | 72 | -0.2 | .183/.278/.313 | .130 | .235 | 15 | 4 | 28% | 11% | 63 | -0.3 |
|
✕Taylor Krick 2012 · A |
24 | 45 | 36→30 | 41→40 | 48 | .212/.296/.272 | .060 | .284 | 5 | 5 | 25% | 8% | 62 | -0.9 | .231/.315/.299 | .068 | .320 | 3 | 5 | 26% | 8% | 77 | +0.1 | .242/.332/.304 | .063 | .339 | 1 | 3 | 26% | 9% | 82 | +0.2 |
|
✕Travis Harrison 2016 · AA |
23 | 45→49 | 40 | 37→45 | 47 | .214/.293/.309 | .095 | .292 | 6 | 4 | 27% | 8% | 70 | -0.3 | .189/.272/.276 | .087 | .284 | 6 | 9 | 32% | 8% | 53 | -1.5 | .162/.252/.242 | .080 | .256 | 5 | 10 | 35% | 8% | 34 | -2.0 |