Ariel Armas — OGILVIE

Ariel ArmasC Knoxville Smokies

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION437 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP270

ISO90

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 34

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT36

scouting grade only

POWER34

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED37

scouting grade only

DEFENSE61

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	57	49	10	4	0	0	7	10	1	0	0	204	316	286	602	82	256	18	12	284	78	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2025	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	381	334	78	21	1	5	38	70	8	11	4	234	326	347	674	114	281	18	10	308	95	-2	+1	—	—	+8	0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	57	51	8	3	0	0	5	13	1	0	0	157	246	216	461	59	221	23	9	219	34	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	381	346	65	17	1	4	26	90	8	11	4	188	261	277	538	90	238	24	7	237	47	-24	+1	—	—	+8	-1.6
2024	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	57	51	8	3	0	0	5	13	1	0	0	157	246	216	461	59	211	23	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	57	49	10	4	0	0	7	10	1	0	0	204	316	286	602	82	256	18	12	284	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	381	346	65	17	1	4	26	90	8	11	4	188	261	277	538	90	241	24	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	381	334	78	21	1	5	38	70	8	11	4	234	326	347	674	114	281	18	10	308	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	57	51	8	3	0	0	5	13	1	0	0	157	246	216	461	59	221	23	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	381	344	65	17	1	4	26	90	8	11	4	189	261	279	540	90	238	24	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	57	51	8	3	0	0	5	13	1	0	0	157	246	216	461	59	221	23	9	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	381	344	65	17	1	4	26	90	8	11	4	189	261	279	540	90	238	24	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	CHC	—	437	395	82	16	1	5	30	110	8	7	2	208	277	291	568	84	272	25	7	257	60	-21	+1	+0	+8	+9	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA RAW	CHC	—	437	381	87	18	1	7	44	90	8	7	2	228	321	336	657	108	279	21	10	300	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	AA MLE	CHC	2%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		268	22	11	261	63	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	AA MLE	CHC	—	446	403	83	16	1	5	31	112	8	7	2	206	276	288	564	82	270	25	7	257	60	-21	+1	+0	+8	+10	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CHC	23%	436	395	85	18	1	7	31	103	7	6	2	215	284	319	603	104	272	24	7	275	72	-14	+0	+1	+8	+9	0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	CHC	35%	466	421	93	19	1	9	35	109	7	6	2	221	292	335	626	114	274	23	8	282	77	-13	+0	+1	+8	+10	0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	CHC	42%	482	436	96	20	1	9	36	112	7	6	2	220	290	333	623	112	275	23	7	286	80	-12	+0	+1	+9	+10	0.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	CHC	45%	486	439	97	20	1	10	37	113	7	6	2	221	292	339	631	118	275	23	8	287	80	-11	+0	+1	+9	+11	0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	CHC	47%	484	436	96	20	1	9	38	113	7	6	2	220	293	333	626	112	274	23	8	286	80	-12	+0	+0	+9	+10	0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	CHC	46%	476	429	93	19	1	9	37	112	7	5	2	217	290	329	618	112	274	24	8	284	78	-12	+0	-0	+8	+10	0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	CHC	46%	467	420	92	19	1	9	37	111	7	5	1	219	293	333	626	114	272	24	8	281	76	-13	+1	-1	+8	+10	0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	CHC	46%	439	396	84	17	1	8	34	106	6	4	1	212	284	321	605	109	270	24	8	277	74	-14	+0	-2	+8	+10	0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	CHC	46%	409	368	78	16	1	7	32	100	6	4	1	212	286	318	604	106	267	24	8	271	70	-15	+0	-3	+7	+9	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	CHC	23%	100	91	20	4	0	2	7	24	2	1	0	220	290	330	620	110	274	24	7	264	72	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	CHC	35%	164	148	33	7	1	3	12	38	3	2	1	223	294	345	639	122	275	23	7	271	77	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	CHC	42%	203	183	41	8	1	4	15	47	3	2	1	224	294	344	638	120	276	23	7	275	80	-5	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	CHC	45%	218	196	44	9	1	4	17	51	3	3	1	224	296	342	638	117	276	23	8	276	80	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	CHC	47%	225	202	45	9	1	4	18	53	3	3	1	223	296	337	633	114	276	24	8	275	80	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	CHC	46%	221	199	44	9	1	4	17	52	3	2	1	221	292	337	629	116	275	24	8	273	78	-6	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	CHC	46%	216	194	43	9	1	4	17	52	3	2	1	222	294	340	635	119	274	24	8	270	76	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	CHC	46%	203	182	39	8	1	3	16	49	3	2	1	214	289	319	607	104	271	24	8	266	74	-6	+0	-1	+4	+4	0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	CHC	46%	189	169	35	7	0	3	15	46	3	2	1	207	283	302	585	95	268	24	8	261	70	-7	+0	-1	+3	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1739	1564	344	70	7	31	134	412	26	19	8	220	292	333	625	113	277	24	8	271	73	-48	+1	-2	+31	+38	2.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	129	26	3	12	50	154	10	7	3	221	293	337	630	116	277	24	8	271	73	-18	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	4592	4145	888	188	10	81	349	1084	70	59	19	214	286	323	609	109	269	24	8	277	73	-116	+4	-3	+74	+90	5.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	125	27	1	11	49	153	10	8	3	213	285	319	603	106	268	24	8	277	73	-18	+1	-0	+12	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.6	1,746	32	19	219	288	332	+31	+18	3.1	3.0
/162	664	12	7	+11.9	+6.9	1.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ariel Armas (OGILVIE)	23	30→36	35→34	40→37	45	206/275/292	85	268	4	5	24%	7%	63	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brian Serven 2018 · A	23	43	37→50	40→30	44	203/260/282	79	255	4	6	21%	6%	55	-2.0	197/252/312	115	257	11	4	27%	5%	58	-1.7	217/296/335	118	314	12	1	32%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Jakson Reetz 2019 · A	23	41→33	40→55	39→45	43	198/274/287	88	281	8	5	30%	7%	61	-1.5	198/277/315	117	286	12	5	33%	7%	70	-0.9	193/274/380	187	243	23	4	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Austin Rei 2017 · A	23	39	41→40	39→40	43	193/270/285	93	265	8	4	29%	7%	60	-1.6	186/261/278	92	278	7	4	33%	7%	55	-2.0	169/248/255	87	259	6	3	34%	7%	43	-1.3
✕James Guerrero 2007 · A	23	43→46	39→40	39→45	53	204/284/288	84	238	6	6	17%	9%	65	-1.2	206/293/291	85	259	6	8	21%	10%	70	-0.9	196/294/272	75	250	5	8	22%	11%	64	-0.6
✕Matt Kennelly 2012 · AA	23	44	39→40	36→40	43	215/267/294	79	283	7	3	26%	6%	59	-1.6	222/275/298	76	275	4	6	20%	6%	63	-1.4	218/274/265	48	268	1	2	18%	6%	52	-1.0
✕Michael Paez 2018 · A	23	42→43	43→40	41→40	46	207/287/322	115	271	10	7	26%	8%	75	-0.5	208/274/306	98	264	9	4	23%	7%	65	-1.2	201/265/289	88	251	8	2	22%	7%	57	-1.2
✕Blake Ochoa 2009 · A	23	44	40→45	40	45	213/266/308	96	269	8	5	24%	6%	62	-1.4	237/297/380	143	290	16	5	23%	7%	91	+0.6	247/311/417	170	291	21	2	22%	7%	105	+0.5
✕David Urias 2008 · AAA	23	44	39→40	37→45	38	212/246/291	79	267	7	6	23%	4%	50	-2.3	237/272/312	75	288	4	9	18%	4%	64	-1.3	285/312/357	72	333	5	6	15%	3%	86	+0.1
✕Wyatt Toregas 2006 · A	23	41→40	38→45	43→40	43	201/251/280	79	253	6	3	23%	6%	51	-2.3	225/277/335	110	272	11	4	21%	6%	73	-0.6	229/284/350	121	266	13	3	19%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Ty Ross 2015 · A	23	43→41	40	36→30	43	209/260/300	91	265	8	3	24%	6%	58	-1.7	203/251/291	88	269	7	3	26%	6%	53	-2.1	191/238/270	79	253	6	0	26%	5%	41	-1.4
✕Alika Williams 2022 · A	23	46→44	39→45	42→45	40	223/261/311	88	285	7	8	24%	4%	61	-1.5	218/276/318	100	282	9	7	25%	7%	69	-0.9	238/286/342	104	298	8	5	22%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Wendell Rijo 2019 · AA	23	41→43	39→50	42→50	44	198/256/279	82	255	6	8	24%	6%	52	-2.2	210/264/336	126	271	14	8	27%	6%	68	-1.0	208/265/349	141	264	16	14	28%	6%	69	-0.6
✕Corey Kemp 2009 · A	23	43→49	38→40	41→40	42	206/268/282	76	272	6	3	26%	6%	57	-1.8	223/287/308	85	296	5	4	24%	8%	70	-0.8	230/298/316	86	301	4	2	23%	8%	74	-0.4
✕Luis Flores 2010 · A	23	37	38→40	40→45	47	178/255/257	78	233	5	4	25%	8%	48	-2.5	198/265/319	121	240	12	4	22%	7%	65	-1.2	196/247/324	128	228	14	2	21%	6%	57	-0.5
✕Donny Sands 2019 · A	23	47	38→45	39→40	40	226/268/305	80	297	5	4	25%	5%	61	-1.5	207/256/306	99	274	9	4	26%	6%	58	-1.7	224/286/336	112	273	12	2	22%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	48	-2.5	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	56	-1.9	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	53	-0.7
✕Rayder Ascanio 2019 · A	23	42→46	40	40→45	44	204/258/291	87	259	8	7	24%	6%	55	-1.9	213/264/307	94	271	9	6	24%	6%	61	-1.5	206/256/297	90	261	10	4	24%	6%	53	-1.0
✕Matt McLaughlin 2019 · A	23	46→43	39→30	39→45	43	219/274/306	87	277	6	8	23%	6%	65	-1.2	206/268/273	67	284	4	8	27%	7%	55	-1.9	191/258/242	52	266	2	7	27%	7%	42	-1.9
✕Joseph Odom 2015 · A	23	39	41→45	40→30	44	191/261/283	92	275	9	5	32%	8%	55	-1.9	210/256/322	112	283	11	3	29%	5%	61	-1.5	209/248/319	110	280	10	0	29%	4%	55	-1.0
✕Cam Balego 2018 · A	23	45→40	39→45	41→30	45	215/281/311	97	293	5	6	27%	7%	69	-0.9	209/278/303	94	276	8	3	26%	6%	67	-1.1	201/277/296	95	259	11	1	26%	7%	63	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps