Ariel Armas

C Knoxville Smokies
Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1400ETA2030MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421A+CHC57.204/.316/.2860037—.157/.246/.216
202522A+CHC381.234/.326/.34751149—.194/.266/.283
202623AACHC437.228/.321/.3367761—.210/.279/.304
2027PROJMLE24MLBCHC4.208/.276/.29900620.0
2028PROJ23% MLB25MLBCHC59.211/.280/.31211670.1
2029PROJ35% MLB26MLBCHC106.214/.283/.32021700.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034
2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
Z-Con%78
K%72
Whiff%68
Chase%52
BB%47
wRC+34
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 90%
CompsAdam Weisenburger (age 24) · Abrahan Gutierrez (age 24) · Michael Paez (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†62
AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .276 / .299
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%7
BABIP268
ISO89
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -9.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: -0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +1.7 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+2FLDPOS: +3.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.00.10.10.20.10.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2031Arb-1$1M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Arb-2$1M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Arb-3$1.0M———
Totals $0.8M $2M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202421 A+South Bend Cubs — 5749 10400 7101 00 204316286602 82256 1812 284 37 — — — — — —
202522 A+South Bend Cubs — 381334 782115 38708 114 234326347674 114281 1810 308 49 — — — — — —
202623 AAKnoxville Smokies — 437381 871817 44908 72 228321336657 108279 2110 300 61 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202421 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 5751 8300 5131 00 157246216461 59223 239 223 37 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 381346 671714 26858 114 194266283549 90238 227 240 49 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEKnoxville Smokies — 437395 831716 301108 72 210279304583 94270 257 259 61 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 5751 8300 5131 00 157246216461 59211 239 223 37 — — — — — —
202421 A+ RAWSouth Bend Cubs — 5749 10400 7101 00 204316286602 82256 1812 284 37 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 381346 671714 26858 114 194266283549 90244 227 240 49 — — — — — —
202522 A+ RAWSouth Bend Cubs — 381334 782115 38708 114 234326347674 114281 1810 308 49 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEKnoxville Smokies — 437395 831716 301108 72 210279304583 94273 257 259 61 — — — — — —
202623 AA RAWKnoxville Smokies — 437381 871817 44908 72 228321336657 108279 2110 300 61 — — — — — —
202421 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 5751 8300 5131 00 157246216461 59223 239 223 37 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 381344 671714 26858 114 195266285551 90238 227 240 49 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEKnoxville Smokies — 437396 831716 301108 72 210279303582 93270 257 259 61 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 5751 8300 5131 00 157246216461 59223 239 223 37 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLESouth Bend Cubs — 381344 671714 26858 114 195266285551 90238 227 240 49 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEKnoxville Smokies — 437396 831716 301108 72 210279303582 93270 257 259 61 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLECHC 2% 380345 711614 26926 52 206274296570 90265 247 260 62 -17 +0 +3 +7 +8 0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXCHC 2% 44 1000 010 00 208276299574 91268 250 262 62 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLECHC 23% 256232 501114 18624 31 210279310588 100267 247 267 67 -10 +0 +2 +5 +6 0.2
202926 MLB MLECHC 35% 302272 591315 22735 41 212281318599 106268 247 272 70 -11 +0 +2 +5 +7 0.4
203027 MLB MLECHC 40% 320289 611315 23775 41 213282320602 107269 247 273 71 -11 +0 +3 +6 +7 0.5
203128 MLB MLECHC 44% 326294 621315 24795 31 213282319602 107269 247 273 71 -11 +0 +2 +6 +7 0.4
203229 MLB MLECHC 45% 320289 611315 24784 21 212281318599 106269 248 272 70 -11 +0 +1 +6 +7 0.2
203330 MLB MLECHC 45% 314284 601315 23784 22 209278310587 101267 257 267 67 -12 -0 +0 +6 +7 0.0
202825 MLB CTXCHC 23% 5954 12301 4141 10 211280312592 100270 247 269 67 -2 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.1
202926 MLB CTXCHC 35% 10695 21502 8252 10 214283320603 106271 248 273 70 -4 +0 +1 +2 +2 0.1
203027 MLB CTXCHC 40% 130118 25602 9312 11 214284322605 107271 247 274 71 -5 -0 +1 +2 +3 0.2
203128 MLB CTXCHC 44% 143130 27602 10352 11 214284321605 107272 247 274 71 -5 -0 +1 +3 +3 0.1
203229 MLB CTXCHC 45% 143129 27602 11352 11 213283319602 106271 248 273 70 -5 -0 +1 +3 +3 0.1
203330 MLB CTXCHC 45% 142129 27602 10352 11 210279312590 101269 257 268 67 -6 -0 +0 +3 +3 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 723655 13932011 5217511 64 212281311593 99270 247 272 64 -26 -0 +4 +13 +16 0.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650589 12529010 4715710 54 212282312594 100270 247 272 64 -24 -0 +3 +12 +14 0.5
Career— MLE — 29232642 550122941 21070647 3914 208278308586 100266 247 263 64 -76 +1 +12 +37 +44 1.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650588 1222729 4715710 93 207278306584 99265 247 263 64 -24 +0 +4 +12 +14 0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAKnoxville Smokies · 437 PAwOBA .295 → .259 (−36)K% 20.6% → 25.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.59%÷1.000×1.220——25.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.07%÷1.000×0.680—×1.0126.93%
HBP% /PA1.83%—×0.840—×1.0121.56%
Singles /BIP20.96%÷1.000×0.920×1.048×1.01220.46%
Doubles /BIP6.19%÷1.000×0.910×1.048×1.0125.97%
Triples /BIP0.34%÷1.000×0.880×1.048×1.0120.32%
Home runs /BIP2.41%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0121.95%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.

Result: wOBA .295 → .259; ISO .108 → .095; BABIP .279 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 381 PAwOBA .302 → .240 (−62)K% 18.4% → 22.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.37%÷1.051×1.270——22.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.97%÷1.042×0.710—×0.9986.79%
HBP% /PA2.10%—×0.790—×0.9981.66%
Singles /BIP19.32%÷1.021×0.920×0.974×0.99816.91%
Doubles /BIP7.95%÷1.000×0.810×0.974×0.9986.26%
Triples /BIP0.38%÷0.900×0.850×0.974×0.9980.35%
Home runs /BIP1.89%÷1.106×0.800—×0.9981.37%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 110, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .302 → .240; ISO .114 → .088; BABIP .281 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 57 PAwOBA .277 → .223 (−54)K% 17.5% → 22.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.54%÷1.005×1.270——22.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.28%÷1.021×0.710—×1.0128.64%
HBP% /PA1.75%—×0.790—×1.0121.40%
Singles /BIP15.38%÷1.009×0.920—×1.01214.20%
Doubles /BIP10.26%÷1.034×0.810—×1.0128.13%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.979×0.850—×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.909×0.800—×1.0120.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 96, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .277 → .223; ISO .082 → .064; BABIP .256 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).