Ariel Armas — OGILVIE

Ariel ArmasC Knoxville Smokies

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION269 act + 179 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .265 / .271

PA179

HR1

K%28

BB%7

BABIP278

ISO74

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 34

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT36

scouting grade only

POWER34

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED37

scouting grade only

DEFENSE61

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	57	51	8	3	0	0	5	13	1	0	0	157	246	216	461	59	211	23	9	215	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	57	49	10	4	0	0	7	10	1	0	0	204	316	286	602	82	256	18	12	284	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	381	347	64	17	1	3	25	86	8	11	4	184	255	265	520	81	236	23	7	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	381	334	78	21	1	5	38	70	8	11	4	234	326	347	674	114	281	18	10	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	CHC	—	269	243	47	10	1	1	19	84	5	5	1	193	266	255	521	62	289	31	7	230	34	-20	+1	+0	+5	+8	-0.7
YTD	23	AA	CHC	—	269	235	50	11	1	1	27	65	5	5	1	213	307	281	588	68	288	24	10	274	68	-10	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.3
ROS	23	AA	CHC	2%	179	162	32	7	1	1	12	51	3	3	1	197	265	271	536	74	275	28	7	247	47	-11	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.2
ROS	23	MLB	CHC	2%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		276	25	0	235	38	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	AA	CHC	—	273	247	48	10	1	1	19	85	5	5	1	194	266	255	521	61	290	31	7	230	34	-20	+1	+0	+5	+8	-0.7
TOT	23	AA	CHC	—	448	405	79	17	2	2	31	135	8	8	2	195	266	262	527	67	285	30	7	237	39	-31	+1	+0	+8	+13	-0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	CHC	23%	436	395	81	18	2	5	31	120	7	6	2	205	275	299	574	94	276	28	7	260	57	-21	+0	+1	+8	+12	0.0
2028	25	MLB	CHC	35%	465	421	88	19	2	7	34	125	7	6	2	209	279	314	593	105	278	27	7	270	65	-19	+0	+1	+8	+13	0.4
2029	26	MLB	CHC	42%	482	436	92	20	2	8	36	129	7	6	2	211	282	321	603	110	279	27	7	275	69	-17	+0	+1	+9	+14	0.7
2030	27	MLB	CHC	45%	486	439	93	20	2	8	37	130	7	6	2	212	284	321	605	109	279	27	8	276	70	-17	+0	+1	+9	+14	0.7
2027	24	MLB	CHC	23%	100	91	18	4	0	1	7	28	2	1	0	198	270	275	545	77	278	28	7	250	50	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	CHC	35%	163	148	32	7	1	3	12	44	2	2	1	216	284	338	622	122	279	27	7	260	57	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.0
2029	26	MLB	CHC	42%	203	183	39	8	1	4	15	54	3	3	1	213	284	333	617	120	280	27	7	265	61	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.1
2030	27	MLB	CHC	45%	218	196	42	9	1	4	17	58	3	3	1	214	287	332	619	117	280	27	8	267	62	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	688	622	132	28	3	12	51	185	10	9	3	212	283	325	607	113	280	27	7	262	59	-32	+1	+1	+12	+19	0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	124	26	3	11	48	175	9	9	3	211	281	321	602	111	279	27	7	262	59	-30	+1	+1	+12	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	2486	2251	458	104	10	32	180	654	40	38	13	203	274	301	576	98	270	26	7	262	59	-115	+2	+4	+44	+70	0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	120	27	3	8	47	171	10	10	3	204	274	301	575	97	271	26	7	262	59	-30	+1	+1	+12	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	57	49	10	4	0	0	7	10	1	0	0	204	316	286	602	82	256	18	12	284	75	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2025	22	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	381	334	78	21	1	5	38	70	8	11	4	234	326	347	674	114	281	18	10	308	94	-2	+1	—	—	+11	0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	691	11	9	212	279	319	+12	+5	0.7	0.7
	/162	664	11	9	212	279	319	+11.9	+4.4	0.6	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ariel Armas (OGILVIE)	23	30→36	35→34	40→37	45	195/266/262	67	285	2	8	30%	7%	39	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕David Masters 2016 · A	23	37→36	35→45	38→40	42	179/237/235	56	243	3	5	27%	6%	27	-3.3	177/239/255	78	244	7	3	29%	6%	33	-2.9	194/263/331	137	266	18	1	33%	7%	59	-0.5
✕Chuck Moorman 2017 · A	23	37	37→40	39→30	36	183/216/254	71	254	4	4	29%	4%	20	-3.8	193/237/282	89	283	7	3	33%	5%	38	-2.6	184/229/268	84	273	7	0	34%	5%	28	-1.5
✕Brian Serven 2018 · A	23	42	37→45	40→30	45	200/257/277	77	250	4	6	21%	6%	46	-2.0	189/243/292	103	253	9	4	28%	5%	44	-2.1	224/307/333	109	327	9	1	31%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Christian Kelley 2017 · A	23	42	36→40	36→30	41	201/249/263	62	269	4	3	26%	5%	38	-2.6	200/261/283	83	272	8	2	28%	6%	50	-1.8	192/255/300	107	253	12	0	28%	6%	49	-0.8
✕Joseph Odom 2015 · A	23	38	40→45	40→30	44	189/261/275	87	276	8	5	33%	8%	48	-1.9	206/252/313	107	279	10	3	29%	5%	53	-1.5	199/254/318	119	330	12	2	41%	6%	52	-0.6
✕Luis Flores 2010 · A	23	37	38→40	40→45	47	178/255/257	78	233	5	4	25%	8%	41	-2.3	199/265/324	125	241	13	4	22%	7%	62	-0.9	195/242/335	140	225	17	2	22%	5%	52	-0.4
✕Jackson Williams 2009 · A	23	38	39→45	41→40	41	188/250/270	81	257	8	5	29%	6%	41	-2.3	191/260/274	83	258	6	3	27%	7%	47	-1.9	197/245/313	116	250	13	2	27%	6%	48	-0.9
✕Matt Kennelly 2012 · AA	23	44	39→40	36→40	43	215/268/299	84	286	7	3	27%	6%	56	-1.3	219/270/298	79	274	5	6	21%	6%	56	-1.3	212/267/261	49	263	1	2	19%	6%	42	-1.1
✕Adam Weisenburger 2013 · AA	24	42	36→40	43→30	45	197/271/262	65	269	3	5	26%	7%	49	-1.8	214/294/304	90	284	7	4	25%	8%	69	-0.4	213/299/301	87	276	6	2	23%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Stephen Wickens 2012 · A	23	45→44	36→40	40→55	49	207/280/282	75	258	2	5	20%	8%	57	-1.2	227/302/302	75	282	3	12	19%	8%	72	-0.2	223/296/292	69	277	3	15	19%	7%	65	-0.4
✕Rocky Gale 2012 · AA	24	37→45	37→40	41→30	40	184/232/251	67	245	5	5	27%	5%	27	-3.3	204/235/262	58	251	4	4	20%	4%	30	-3.1	251/279/300	49	306	2	1	18%	3%	57	-0.6
✕Alex Garabedian 2009 · A	23	41	40	36→30	39	200/242/290	90	269	7	4	28%	5%	42	-2.3	213/267/314	101	288	9	4	28%	7%	59	-1.1	215/275/317	102	283	11	1	27%	7%	61	-0.4
✕Austin Rei 2018 · A	24	37	39→40	37→40	38	179/253/269	90	275	6	4	35%	6%	43	-2.2	188/261/280	92	285	7	5	34%	7%	50	-1.8	171/249/254	84	252	8	2	33%	7%	36	-1.0
✕Corey Kemp 2009 · A	23	43→49	38→40	41→40	42	206/268/282	76	272	6	3	26%	6%	52	-1.6	223/287/308	85	296	5	4	24%	8%	66	-0.6	230/298/316	86	301	4	2	23%	8%	70	-0.2
✕Jio Mier 2014 · AA	23	38→43	38→40	43→50	44	186/248/258	72	254	7	10	28%	7%	37	-2.6	200/259/284	84	270	7	9	27%	7%	48	-1.9	199/259/281	82	265	6	7	26%	7%	45	-1.3
✕Bobby Haney 2012 · A	23	42	37→40	37→40	43	201/257/274	72	282	5	4	29%	7%	44	-2.1	226/272/307	81	306	5	5	26%	6%	59	-1.1	236/277/312	76	312	5	4	25%	5%	61	-0.5
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	41	-2.3	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	50	-1.7	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Dillon Persinger 2019 · A	23	42→39	39→40	36→40	38	201/261/286	84	297	7	4	33%	6%	50	-1.7	199/261/285	86	321	7	6	37%	7%	50	-1.8	127/198/173	46	248	6	0	48%	7%	-7	-1.0
✕Connor Justus 2019 · AA	24	40→37	38→40	42→45	45	190/273/269	79	271	6	8	30%	8%	52	-1.6	172/246/239	67	256	5	8	32%	7%	33	-2.9	143/216/191	47	222	3	6	34%	7%	5	-2.9
✕J.J. Franco 2017 · A	25	41	36→30	37→45	42	194/246/256	62	260	3	5	26%	6%	35	-2.8	212/283/267	55	298	2	6	26%	9%	54	-1.4	214/294/251	37	301	0	4	26%	10%	52	-0.5