Carson Rucker — OGILVIE

Carson Rucker3B Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 21 R/R 6'2" / 195 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION395 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%40

BB%10

BABIP314

ISO76

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE25

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	41	33	8	1	0	1	6	9	2	4	1	242	390	364	754	121	304	22	15	352	125	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	19	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	16	13	5	4	0	0	0	5	2	1	1	385	438	692	1.130	308	625	31	0	469	204	+2	-0	—	—	+0	0.2
2025	20	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	429	387	91	14	3	1	30	104	10	11	3	235	307	295	601	59	317	24	7	278	74	-13	+1	—	—	+9	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	41	35	7	1	0	1	4	13	2	4	1	200	317	314	631	114	246	32	10	248	54	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	16	14	4	3	0	0	0	7	2	1	1	286	375	500	875	214	470	44	0	315	99	-0	-0	—	—	+0	0.0
2025	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	429	393	71	12	2	1	24	148	10	11	3	181	246	229	475	48	279	34	6	215	32	-35	+1	—	—	+9	-2.5
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	41	35	7	1	0	1	4	13	2	4	1	200	317	314	631	114	286	32	10	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	—	41	33	8	1	0	1	6	9	2	4	1	242	390	364	754	121	304	22	15	352	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	16	14	4	3	0	0	0	7	2	1	1	286	375	500	875	214	571	44	0	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	—	16	13	5	4	0	0	0	5	2	1	1	385	438	692	1.130	308	625	31	0	469	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	429	393	71	12	2	1	24	148	10	11	3	181	246	229	475	48	285	34	6	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	429	387	91	14	3	1	30	104	10	11	3	235	307	295	601	59	317	24	7	278	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	41	35	7	1	0	1	4	13	2	4	1	200	317	314	631	114	246	32	10	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	16	14	4	3	0	0	0	7	2	1	1	286	375	500	875	214	470	44	0	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	429	392	71	12	2	1	24	148	10	11	3	181	246	230	475	48	279	34	6	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	41	35	7	1	0	1	4	13	2	4	1	200	317	314	631	114	246	32	10	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	16	14	4	3	0	0	0	7	2	1	1	286	375	500	875	214	470	44	0	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	429	392	71	12	2	1	24	148	10	11	3	181	246	230	475	48	279	34	6	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A MLE	DET	—	395	340	60	7	1	11	45	187	6	17	2	176	284	300	584	124	336	47	11	263	64	-17	+3	+0	+1	+9	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A RAW	DET	—	324	265	69	8	2	11	50	113	5	16	2	260	388	430	818	170	400	35	15	365	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A+ RAW	DET	—	71	60	13	1	0	4	10	20	1	1	0	217	338	433	771	217	250	28	14	346	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	A MLE	DET	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		320	40	10	260	62	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	21	A MLE	DET	—	405	349	61	7	1	11	46	191	6	17	2	175	282	295	577	120	331	47	11	263	64	-17	+3	+0	+1	+9	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	DET	34%	461	407	80	13	2	9	43	177	8	10	2	197	286	305	591	108	318	38	9	273	71	-16	+1	+0	+2	+10	-0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	48%	500	441	90	15	2	11	47	184	8	11	2	204	292	322	614	118	316	37	9	281	76	-14	+1	+0	+2	+11	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	53%	540	475	99	16	2	13	51	194	9	11	2	208	297	333	630	124	315	36	9	286	80	-13	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	DET	55%	559	492	103	17	2	14	53	198	9	12	2	209	298	337	635	128	314	35	9	289	82	-12	+2	+0	+2	+12	0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	DET	56%	567	499	104	17	2	14	54	201	9	12	2	208	297	335	632	126	314	35	10	290	82	-12	+2	+0	+2	+12	0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	DET	55%	567	498	104	17	2	14	55	201	9	12	2	209	299	335	634	127	314	35	10	290	82	-12	+2	+0	+2	+12	0.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	DET	55%	563	494	103	17	2	14	55	200	9	11	2	209	299	336	635	128	313	36	10	289	82	-12	+1	-1	+2	+12	0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	DET	58%	553	485	101	16	2	14	54	198	9	10	2	208	299	336	635	128	312	36	10	287	80	-13	+1	-1	+2	+12	0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	DET	60%	543	476	98	16	2	13	53	196	9	9	2	206	297	330	627	124	310	36	10	284	78	-14	+1	-2	+2	+12	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	DET	34%	158	139	27	4	1	3	15	61	3	3	1	194	287	302	589	108	312	39	9	256	71	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	48%	242	213	43	7	1	5	23	89	4	5	1	202	292	315	606	113	310	37	10	265	76	-7	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	53%	285	251	51	8	1	7	27	102	5	6	1	203	293	327	620	124	309	36	9	270	80	-7	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	DET	55%	306	269	55	9	1	7	29	108	5	7	1	204	294	323	617	119	309	35	9	273	82	-7	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	DET	56%	316	278	57	9	1	8	30	112	5	7	1	205	294	331	625	126	309	35	9	274	82	-7	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	DET	55%	312	274	57	9	1	8	30	111	5	7	1	208	298	336	634	128	308	36	10	274	82	-7	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	DET	55%	308	270	55	9	1	7	30	110	5	6	1	204	295	322	617	119	308	36	10	273	82	-7	+1	-0	+1	+7	0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	DET	58%	320	281	56	9	1	7	31	115	5	6	1	199	290	313	603	114	306	36	10	271	80	-8	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	DET	60%	327	287	57	9	1	7	32	118	5	6	1	199	290	310	600	111	305	36	10	268	78	-8	+1	-1	+1	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2574	2262	458	73	9	59	247	926	42	53	9	202	293	321	614	118	309	36	10	270	75	-62	+7	-2	+9	+56	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	115	18	2	15	62	234	11	13	2	201	292	319	611	117	307	36	10	270	75	-16	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5349	4718	965	160	20	118	494	1921	93	114	23	205	293	322	615	117	313	36	9	280	75	-119	+12	-4	+17	+105	1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	116	19	2	14	60	233	11	14	3	202	290	316	606	113	310	36	9	280	75	-16	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.4	2,893	65	58	208	292	328	+10	+3	2.1	2.3
/162	664	15	13	+2.4	+0.7	0.5	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carson Rucker (OGILVIE)	21	35	20	45	25	186/276/281	95	320	6	10	41%	9%	62	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yeison Santana 2022 · A	21	43	37→30	45→55	39	200/262/271	71	317	5	10	36%	7%	53	-2.1	218/286/282	64	313	3	15	29%	8%	63	-1.3	222/302/263	41	308	2	22	26%	9%	62	-0.8
✕Imbewer Alvarez 2007 · A	21	41	39→40	45→55	37	197/251/289	92	304	6	8	36%	6%	53	-2.1	211/275/294	83	302	6	15	30%	6%	63	-1.4	216/288/295	79	292	7	22	26%	7%	65	-0.4
✕Luis Rubio 2023 · A	21	40	35→30	46→45	39	185/247/242	57	294	2	7	36%	7%	40	-3.1	190/261/251	61	286	3	8	32%	8%	48	-2.5	130/225/152	22	201	0	8	31%	10%	12	-1.2
✕Braulio Vasquez 2021 · A	22	41	39→40	44→65	38	195/256/276	80	309	6	7	37%	6%	51	-2.2	207/280/301	94	303	7	30	31%	7%	67	-1.1	200/278/292	91	290	6	42	30%	7%	62	-0.6
✕Luis Reynoso 2016 · A	21	42	36→30	43→50	37	194/247/251	57	311	4	5	37%	6%	41	-3.0	200/256/266	66	346	4	6	40%	6%	49	-2.4	161/222/189	29	312	0	3	45%	6%	17	-1.0
✕Mikey Edie 2017 · A	20	43	34→30	50	36	201/262/254	53	296	2	14	31%	4%	49	-2.4	216/267/279	63	314	3	13	30%	4%	55	-1.9	200/250/260	60	280	3	7	28%	3%	41	-1.5
✕Corey Joyce 2021 · A	22	44	40	50	39	211/267/307	95	311	8	8	33%	6%	63	-1.4	201/290/309	108	293	11	12	33%	9%	74	-0.6	213/316/315	101	301	9	14	29%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→45	51→45	39	201/262/293	92	296	7	7	33%	6%	57	-1.8	195/269/306	111	299	13	8	37%	7%	65	-1.2	180/257/292	111	259	15	7	35%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Pedruin Bautista 2006 · A	22	39	38→40	50→60	33	192/225/272	80	283	4	10	33%	4%	38	-3.2	197/277/272	75	275	3	17	27%	8%	59	-1.7	190/288/262	72	257	2	25	24%	10%	60	-0.6
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	43	201/271/299	98	298	8	11	33%	8%	63	-1.4	193/263/287	94	294	6	14	34%	8%	57	-1.8	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	33	-1.0
✕Carson Tucker 2023 · A	21	39	38→40	52→55	34	165/237/245	80	349	6	11	50%	8%	38	-3.2	185/249/268	83	386	7	9	49%	7%	47	-2.5	198/251/262	64	338	3	18	40%	6%	44	-1.0
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	39	38→30	48→45	42	188/251/270	82	260	6	7	29%	6%	49	-2.4	199/275/282	83	287	6	6	30%	8%	61	-1.5	182/254/249	67	248	6	11	27%	8%	43	-0.7
✕Fabian Pertuz 2022 · A	21	42→34	39→40	45→55	34	200/246/278	78	316	7	7	38%	5%	47	-2.5	177/224/267	90	272	8	11	36%	5%	37	-3.3	159/207/246	87	244	8	12	37%	4%	24	-2.5
✕Johnabiell Laureano 2022 · A	21	42	39→30	45	38	201/259/279	77	311	7	6	36%	6%	53	-2.1	188/257/269	81	349	8	5	44%	8%	51	-2.3	154/237/227	73	303	9	1	48%	9%	32	-0.9
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2010 · A	20	43	38→40	49→55	44	200/281/273	73	300	6	17	33%	8%	61	-1.5	202/260/282	80	343	6	8	40%	6%	54	-2.0	175/223/243	68	314	7	2	44%	5%	29	-1.1
✕Rafael Morel 2023 · A	21	41	37→40	49→50	35	187/246/260	73	316	4	9	40%	6%	44	-2.8	189/261/267	78	300	8	12	37%	7%	52	-2.2	166/245/234	68	265	8	15	37%	8%	37	-2.0
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	39	39→40	46→50	36	192/235/276	84	265	7	5	30%	4%	43	-2.8	192/239/270	78	302	5	7	36%	5%	43	-2.8	140/190/175	36	236	0	6	38%	6%	0	-1.0
✕Omar Guerra 2008 · A	21	41	35→30	48→50	45	193/274/246	53	257	2	9	24%	7%	53	-2.1	220/315/279	59	272	2	11	19%	6%	76	-0.4	229/342/268	39	277	0	15	15%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Daurys Mercedes 2012 · A	22	41	35→45	47→45	40	188/255/251	64	312	2	7	38%	8%	45	-2.7	180/244/248	68	335	3	6	43%	7%	40	-3.0	130/204/185	55	260	2	4	47%	7%	10	-1.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps