Sam Brodersen

P FCL Nationals

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	ASTL	36	46	5.91	4.22	27.6%	18.2%	—	K 20.4% · BB 21.5% · FIP 5.47
2026	24	MIX3 levels	28	33	4.13	4.05	28.9%	17.4%	—	K 20.0% · BB 16.5% · FIP 4.64
2027PROJ	25	MLBSTL	57	60	5.91	5.91	20.4%	20.0%	-0.9
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBSTL	24	25	5.74	5.73	20.9%	18.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSTL	35	37	5.65	5.66	21.1%	18.2%	-0.5

Next 3 projected WAR -1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control20Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsZane Russell (age 24) · Haden Erbe (age 25) · Jeff Ames (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.91

FIP5.91

K%20.4%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	36	0	46	214	59	39	4	0%	1.3	20.4%	21.5%	-1.1%	2.5%	5.91	5.47	—
2025	23	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	36	0	46	214	59	39	4	0%	1.3	20.4%	21.5%	-1.1%	2.5%	5.91	5.47	—
2025	23	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	36	0	46	214	59	39	4	0%	1.3	27.6%	18.2%	9.3%	1.9%	5.91	4.22	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	33	149	43	26	3	0%	1.2	20.0%	16.5%	3.5%	2.1%	4.13	4.64	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	0	33	149	43	26	3	0%	1.2	20.0%	16.5%	3.5%	2.1%	4.13	4.64	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	0	33	149	43	26	3	0%	1.2	28.9%	17.4%	11.4%	2.0%	4.13	4.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	STL	57	0	60	253	52	51	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	20.0%	0.4%	3.0%	5.91	5.91	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	57	0	60	251	53	47	7	0%	1.0	20.9%	18.9%	2.1%	3.0%	5.74	5.73	-0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	56	0	59	247	52	45	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	18.2%	2.9%	3.0%	5.65	5.66	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	24	0	25	106	22	20	3	0%	1.0	20.9%	18.9%	2.1%	3.0%	5.74	5.73	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	35	0	37	156	33	28	5	0%	1.1	21.1%	18.2%	2.9%	3.0%	5.65	5.66	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	263	55	49	8	0%	1.1	21.0%	18.5%	2.5%	3.0%	5.69	5.31	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	158	26	0%	1.1	21.0%	18.5%	2.5%	3.0%	5.69	5.31	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		64	0	78	363	73	71	8	0%	1.2	20.2%	19.5%	0.8%	2.3%	5.17	5.13	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	0	200	927	188	180	21	0%	1.2	20.2%	19.5%	0.8%	2.3%	5.17	5.13	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Brodersen (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.91	20.4%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.70	21.0%	2.5%	118	-0.21	—	—	—
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	87
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	86
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	86
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	86
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.13	18.4%	7.3%	90	-0.76	3.84	164	86
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	85
Ryan Sublette R 2024 · 5.72 FIP	25	SU	5.72	19.9%	17.5%	3.8%	.214	4.47	18.6%	5.0%	53	-1.25	3.74	203	84
Lukas Schiraldi R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	25	SU	5.00	18.7%	19.3%	1.9%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	319	83
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	83
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	83
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	82
Aroni Nina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.8%	20.5%	1.1%	.312	3.04	18.8%	8.7%	64	-1.86	2.68	115	82
Kyle Wilcox R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	25	SU	5.16	25.1%	21.2%	2.7%	.310	5.57	25.1%	-1.5%	13	+0.41	2.78	310	82
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	82
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	81
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	81
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	81
Danny Reynolds R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	25	SU	4.72	16.6%	16.8%	1.6%	.263	3.71	16.0%	4.3%	88	-1.01	3.29	165	81
Blake Rivera R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	25	SU	4.78	20.9%	19.4%	1.8%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	179	81
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	20.8%	19.0%	1.15	5.77
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*