Alvin Nova
P
ACL Athletics
Age 21
RHP
6'4" / 170 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
K%22.6%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.8%
ROS IP12
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Athletics | 11 | 4 | 29 | 132 | 30 | 13 | 3 | 36% | 2.7 | 15.5% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 5.83 | 4.97 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Athletics | 11 | 4 | 29 | 132 | 30 | 13 | 3 | 36% | 2.7 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 2.3% | 5.83 | 3.71 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 7 | 33 | 166 | 37 | 26 | 0 | 54% | 2.6 | 15.3% | 21.6% | -6.3% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 4.54 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 7 | 33 | 166 | 37 | 26 | 0 | 54% | 2.6 | 22.3% | 15.7% | 6.6% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 3.22 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 4 | 3 | 16 | 70 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 75% | 4.0 | 14.6% | 10.7% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 2.81 | 3.23 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Athletics | 4 | 3 | 16 | 70 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 75% | 4.0 | 21.4% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 0.0% | 2.81 | 2.35 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | OAK | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | OAK | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | OAK | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.21 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 3.83 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 3.83 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 28 | 14 | 79 | 368 | 56 | 60 | 4 | 50% | 2.8 | 15.2% | 16.2% | -1.0% | 1.1% | 6.18 | 4.45 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 36 | 200 | 936 | 143 | 152 | 10 | 50% | 2.8 | 15.2% | 16.2% | -1.0% | 1.1% | 6.18 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alvin Nova (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.21 | 23.6% | 14.4% | 20 | -0.19 | — | — | — |
| Carson Rudd R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 85 |
| Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .264 | 4.88 | 14.1% | 3.4% | 117 | +1.04 | 3.84 | 206 | 85 |
| Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 83 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 83 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 3.45 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.15 | 2.98 | 107 | 82 |
| Casey Legumina R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 81 |
| Jeronimo Castro R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.37 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .362 | 3.84 | 20.1% | 7.9% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.19 | 158 | 81 |
| Eiberson Castellano R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.94 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 189 | -0.01 | 3.69 | 348 | 80 |
| Colin Fields R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 80 |
| Simon Mathews R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 78 |
| Rico Garcia R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.21 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .316 | 3.82 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 296 | +0.61 | 3.21 | 566 | 78 |
| Wilmer Ortega R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .304 | 5.83 | 16.1% | 1.8% | 30 | +1.97 | 3.62 | 158 | 78 |
| Miguel Rodriguez R 2025 · 3.30 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.0% | .329 | 5.83 | 19.9% | 7.7% | 108 | +2.53 | 2.55 | 272 | 78 |
| Jonathan Petit R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 3.4% | .272 | 5.09 | 15.6% | 2.4% | 113 | +0.35 | 2.80 | 189 | 78 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.60 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .271 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 3.3% | 97 | +0.84 | 3.60 | 138 | 77 |
| Inohan Paniagua R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.78 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .298 | 4.27 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 297 | +0.49 | 3.78 | 473 | 77 |
| Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.33 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .343 | 6.52 | 19.2% | 11.3% | 197 | +2.19 | 3.27 | 243 | 77 |
| Ray Gaither R 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 77 |
| Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.17 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 2.6% | .366 | 3.31 | 22.3% | 15.2% | 61 | -0.86 | 3.25 | 266 | 77 |
| Cole Stapler R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.83 | 19.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.29 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 220 | -0.54 | 3.28 | 255 | 77 |