Alvin Nova — OGILVIE

Alvin Nova P ACL Athletics

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 170 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 11 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%21.8%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	4	29	132	30	13	3	36%	2.7	15.5%	12.3%	3.1%	3.1%	5.83	5.03	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	11	4	29	132	30	13	3	36%	2.7	22.7%	9.8%	12.9%	2.3%	5.83	3.71	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	33	166	37	26	0	54%	2.6	15.3%	21.6%	-6.3%	0.0%	8.10	4.54	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	7	33	166	37	26	0	54%	2.6	15.3%	21.6%	-6.3%	0.0%	8.10	4.54	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	7	33	166	37	26	0	54%	2.6	22.3%	15.7%	6.6%	0.0%	8.10	3.22	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	4	3	16	70	15	6	0	75%	4.0	14.6%	10.7%	3.9%	0.0%	2.81	3.23	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	4	3	16	70	15	6	0	75%	4.0	14.6%	10.7%	3.9%	0.0%	2.81	3.23	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	4	3	16	70	15	6	0	75%	4.0	21.4%	8.6%	12.9%	0.0%	2.81	2.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	OAK	2	2	11	46	10	6	1	100%	5.5	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	3.0%	4.82	4.82	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	OAK	4	4	20	84	19	9	2	100%	5.0	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	2.9%	4.65	4.56	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	OAK	2	2	10	42	10	5	1	100%	5.0	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	2.9%	4.65	4.56	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	42	9	5	1	100%	4.9	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	2.9%	4.65	4.18	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	183	102	20	100%	5.6	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	2.9%	4.65	4.18	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		28	14	79	368	56	60	4	50%	2.8	15.2%	16.2%	-1.0%	1.1%	6.18	4.47	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	36	200	936	143	152	10	50%	2.8	15.2%	16.2%	-1.0%	1.1%	6.18	4.47	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alvin Nova (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	21.8%	12.3%	3.0%	—	4.56	22.7%	11.6%	20	-0.26	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	85
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	83
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	80
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	79
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	79
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	79
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	79
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	78
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	77
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	77
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	77
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	76
Matt Albers R 2006 · 3.87 FIP	23	SP-	3.87	16.7%	10.6%	1.5%	.340	4.45	14.2%	4.6%	227	+0.58	3.15	749	76
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	76
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.6%	11.6%	249	-0.34	4.54	318	76
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	76
Luis Rosario R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	17.5%	11.8%	2.8%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	206	76
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	76
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	75
Daniel Hudson R 2009 · 5.06 FIP	22	SW	5.06	17.1%	11.0%	3.7%	.232	3.42	19.4%	13.6%	363	-1.64	1.68	850	75