Rory Fox

P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.8 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #566MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP42ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	21	130	4.36	3.27	23.7%	6.1%	—	K 18.5% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.14
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYY	15	15	90	4.47	4.47	18.3%	7.1%	0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBNYY	8	8	52	4.49	4.45	19.4%	7.0%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBNYY	13	13	81	4.42	4.38	20.0%	6.9%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$3M2033Arb-2$4M2034Arb-3$4M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff47Control50Command50FB velo52

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 76%

CompsGrant Rogers (age 23) · Blake Beers (age 24) · Will Ethridge (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%18.3%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4045

CTRL—50

CMD3050

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$4M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$10M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	130	553	131	34	14	91%	5.7	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.36	4.14	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	130	553	131	34	14	91%	5.7	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.36	4.14	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	130	553	131	34	14	91%	5.7	23.7%	6.1%	17.5%	2.5%	4.36	3.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYY	15	15	90	380	70	27	11	100%	6.0	18.3%	7.1%	11.2%	3.0%	4.47	4.47	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	120	506	98	35	15	100%	6.3	19.4%	7.0%	12.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.34	+0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	121	513	103	35	15	100%	6.1	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	2.9%	4.31	4.27	+0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYY	20	20	121	513	104	35	15	100%	6.1	20.3%	6.9%	13.4%	2.9%	4.28	4.25	+0.9
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	120	505	103	35	15	100%	6.3	20.3%	7.0%	13.4%	3.0%	4.29	4.29	+0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYY	19	19	116	490	99	35	15	100%	6.1	20.2%	7.1%	13.1%	3.1%	4.34	4.37	+0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	NYY	18	18	111	468	93	34	15	100%	6.2	20.0%	7.4%	12.6%	3.2%	4.44	4.51	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	104	440	86	34	15	100%	6.1	19.6%	7.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.59	4.68	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	NYY	16	16	97	410	79	33	15	100%	6.1	19.2%	8.0%	11.2%	3.7%	4.77	4.89	+0.0
2036	32	MLB MLE	NYY	15	15	90	380	71	32	15	100%	6.0	18.8%	8.4%	10.4%	3.9%	4.97	5.11	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	52	220	43	15	7	100%	6.5	19.4%	7.0%	12.5%	3.1%	4.49	4.45	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYY	13	13	81	342	68	24	11	100%	6.2	20.0%	6.9%	13.1%	3.1%	4.42	4.38	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	96	405	82	28	13	100%	6.0	20.3%	6.9%	13.4%	3.1%	4.39	4.36	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	102	431	88	30	14	100%	6.4	20.3%	7.0%	13.4%	3.2%	4.40	4.40	+0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYY	17	17	103	435	88	31	14	100%	6.1	20.2%	7.1%	13.1%	3.3%	4.45	4.48	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	101	426	85	31	15	100%	6.3	20.0%	7.4%	12.6%	3.5%	4.56	4.63	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	96	405	80	31	15	100%	6.0	19.6%	7.7%	12.0%	3.7%	4.72	4.81	+0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	NYY	15	15	90	380	73	30	15	100%	6.0	19.2%	8.0%	11.2%	3.9%	4.91	5.03	+0.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	NYY	14	14	84	355	67	30	15	100%	6.0	18.8%	8.4%	10.4%	4.2%	5.12	5.26	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		130	130	805	3400	673	251	118	100%	6.2	19.8%	7.4%	12.4%	3.5%	4.60	4.27	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	167	62	29	100%	6.2	19.8%	7.4%	12.4%	3.5%	4.60	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		23	21	130	553	103	39	17	91%	5.7	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.36	4.14	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		35	32	200	851	158	59	27	91%	5.7	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	3.1%	4.36	4.14	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rory Fox (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	18.3%	7.1%	3.0%	—	4.29	19.9%	13.0%	363	-0.18	—	—	—
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	90
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.94	17.7%	8.7%	323	+0.33	4.32	416	90
Will Ethridge R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	16.8%	5.8%	3.1%	.274	5.54	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.40	3.57	227	90
John Ely R 2010 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP	4.20	17.7%	8.8%	2.7%	.306	4.38	23.2%	12.5%	13	+0.18	4.20	113	89
Alex FaGalde R 2018 · 3.82 FIP	24	SP	3.82	19.1%	6.7%	2.7%	.266	5.04	16.1%	6.4%	162	+1.22	3.82	279	88
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.64	18.2%	11.4%	332	+0.95	3.68	523	88
Jose Acevedo R 2001 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.3%	7.7%	4.1%	.280	4.83	16.9%	11.0%	208	-0.10	3.43	368	87
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	87
Jack Mahoney R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.16	15.0%	4.8%	206	+0.25	3.80	326	86
Dave Bush R 2004 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP	3.96	15.5%	5.6%	2.7%	.268	4.06	16.6%	12.0%	533	+0.10	3.65	1,141	86
Ty Langenberg R 2024 · 3.49 FIP	22	SP	3.49	19.2%	7.6%	1.9%	.325	4.01	16.7%	6.8%	229	+0.52	3.49	337	86
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	86
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.9%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	86
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	85
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.89	14.8%	5.2%	124	+0.78	3.11	206	85
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	658	85
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	85
Kirk Saarloos R 2002 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	14.5%	5.9%	3.2%	.310	4.14	10.4%	3.4%	233	-0.25	3.25	509	85
Brady Rodgers R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SP	3.92	15.5%	5.2%	2.7%	.326	2.99	18.1%	13.6%	189	-0.93	1.98	354	85
Jonathan Pettibone R 2013 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	15.1%	8.0%	1.9%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	100	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	109	19.7%	7.3%	1.23	4.46
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*
Matt Harvey ('21)	4.8	121	21.2%	6.7%	1.15	4.42
Homer Bailey ('20)	7.0	117	19.2%	7.7%	1.12	4.56
Ray Washburn ('61-'70, 12 WAR*)	6.0	121	17.6%*	7.5%*	1.17*	4.17*
Mark Portugal ('85-'99, 18 WAR*)	9.1	130	18.0%*	7.7%*	1.27*	4.25*