Tony Santa Maria

3B Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 25 R/R 5'11" / 195 lbs A+ HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	A+TB	69	.274/.338/.468	2	3	65	—	.206/.265/.365
2026	24	AAATB	50	.190/.320/.310	1	3	49	—	.182/.280/.295
2026	24	A+TB	438	.291/.413/.454	14	55	92	—	.239/.328/.369
2027PROJ0% MLB	25	MLBTB	2	.224/.305/.354	0	0	87	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	26	MLBTB	139	.225/.306/.356	3	6	88	0.2
2029PROJ52% MLB	27	MLBTB	203	.225/.305/.356	5	8	88	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

BB%80

Z-Con%75

Chase%74

Speed66

Whiff%53

K%44

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsMax Schuemann (age 26) · Ryan Bliss (age 24) · José Caballero (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .305 / .354

PA2

HR0

K%50

BB%8

BABIP284

ISO134

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 38 / POW 46

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT38

scouting grade only

POWER46

scouting grade only

EYE48

scouting grade only

SPEED71

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	23	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	69	62	17	6	0	2	3	20	3	3	1	274	338	468	806	194	366	29	4	352	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	50	42	8	2	0	1	7	12	1	3	1	190	320	310	630	119	241	24	14	296	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	438	361	105	17	0	14	59	89	16	55	8	291	413	454	867	163	350	20	13	390	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	69	63	13	4	0	2	2	26	3	3	1	206	265	365	630	159	295	38	3	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	50	44	8	2	0	1	5	14	1	3	1	182	280	295	575	114	226	28	10	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	438	385	92	14	0	12	35	117	16	55	8	239	328	369	697	130	301	27	8	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	69	63	13	4	0	2	2	26	3	3	1	206	265	365	630	159	306	38	3	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	69	62	17	6	0	2	3	20	3	3	1	274	338	468	806	194	366	29	4	352	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	488	429	99	15	0	13	40	131	17	58	9	231	321	357	678	126	300	27	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	488	403	113	19	0	15	66	101	17	58	9	280	403	439	842	159	339	21	14	380	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	69	64	13	4	0	2	2	26	3	3	1	203	265	359	624	156	295	38	3	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	488	428	99	15	0	13	40	131	17	58	9	231	321	357	678	126	293	27	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	69	64	13	4	0	2	2	26	3	3	1	203	265	359	624	156	295	38	3	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	488	428	99	15	0	13	40	131	17	58	9	231	321	357	678	126	293	27	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	0%	380	338	76	14	1	10	31	98	8	16	3	222	304	355	659	133	281	26	8	297	87	-6	+2	+0	+1	+8	0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	0%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	224	305	354	659	130	284	50	0	298	87	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	38%	365	324	72	13	1	9	30	93	8	16	3	223	304	358	662	134	281	25	8	299	88	-5	+2	+0	+1	+8	0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	52%	388	345	77	14	1	10	32	99	8	16	3	223	304	357	661	134	281	26	8	298	88	-6	+2	+0	+1	+8	0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	60%	401	357	79	15	1	10	33	103	8	15	3	222	303	355	658	133	280	26	8	297	87	-6	+2	-1	+1	+9	0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	62%	400	357	79	15	1	10	33	103	7	13	3	221	301	351	652	130	279	26	8	294	85	-7	+1	-1	+1	+9	0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	63%	398	355	78	14	1	10	33	103	7	10	2	219	298	346	643	127	277	26	8	291	83	-8	+1	-2	+1	+9	0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	TB	63%	387	346	75	14	1	9	31	101	7	7	2	215	293	335	628	121	274	26	8	285	79	-10	+1	-3	+1	+8	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	38%	139	123	27	5	0	3	12	35	3	6	1	225	306	356	662	131	284	25	9	299	88	-2	+1	+0	+0	+3	0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	52%	203	180	41	7	1	5	17	52	4	8	2	225	305	356	661	131	284	26	8	299	88	-3	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	60%	239	212	48	9	1	6	20	61	5	9	2	224	304	354	658	130	283	26	8	297	87	-4	+1	-0	+1	+5	0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	62%	246	219	49	9	1	6	20	63	5	8	2	223	302	350	652	127	282	26	8	295	85	-4	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	63%	250	223	50	9	1	6	21	65	4	7	1	221	299	344	644	124	280	26	8	291	83	-5	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	TB	63%	245	219	47	8	1	5	20	64	4	4	1	216	294	334	628	118	277	26	8	285	79	-6	+0	-2	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1322	1176	262	47	5	31	110	340	25	42	9	223	303	350	653	128	285	26	8	294	85	-24	+5	-4	+5	+29	1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	128	23	2	15	54	167	12	21	4	221	301	346	647	125	283	26	8	294	85	-12	+2	-2	+2	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3216	2860	636	116	7	81	260	841	72	152	29	222	303	353	656	130	284	26	8	294	85	-46	+11	-7	+9	+58	2.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	127	23	1	16	53	170	15	31	6	220	302	346	648	126	281	26	8	294	85	-11	+3	-2	+2	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dylan Moorelast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,922 PA	2.9	1,922	63	118	206	310	383	+4	+8	6.6	6.6
/162	664	22	41	+1.3	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 7
#2Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#3Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
#4Tom Downey'09-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,468 PA	3.7	2,468	7	87	234*	299*	359*	+17	-2	3.8	3.8
/162	664	2	23	+4.6	-0.5	1.0	pk7: 4
#5Hernán Pérezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,811 PA	2.7	1,811	45	69	252	281	387	-0	+12	3.7	3.7
/162	664	16	25	-0.0	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 4
#6Sam Bohne'16-'26 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,593 PA	3.9	2,593	16	75	230*	300*	367*	+13	+3	2.8	2.8
/162	664	4	19	+3.4	+0.8	0.7	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.0	1,324	32	42	221	298	351	+5	+2	2.2	2.2
/162	664	16	21	+2.4	+0.8	1.1	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tony Santa Maria (OGILVIE)	25	38	46	71	48	220/301/352	132	281	8	14	26%	8%	87	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Max Schuemann 2023 · AAA	26	47→51	43→45	59→60	47	225/314/340	114	306	10	29	28%	8%	88	+0.5	226/317/332	106	299	10	21	26%	10%	88	+0.4	221/316/318	97	288	9	20	24%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Ryan Bliss 2024 · AAA	24	45→51	46→50	59→60	44	224/286/356	132	289	12	32	26%	7%	81	-0.1	231/299/360	129	304	11	38	26%	8%	87	+0.4	223/291/342	119	294	9	40	25%	7%	79	-0.2
✕José Caballero 2022 · AA	25	44→45	44→45	55→70	47	217/293/337	119	284	11	29	27%	8%	80	-0.2	222/326/336	114	285	11	41	24%	11%	93	+0.8	226/318/339	113	301	10	63	26%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Cooper Bowman 2024 · AA	24	41→44	44→45	62→60	45	204/283/324	119	284	12	37	31%	8%	73	-0.6	210/281/325	115	288	10	33	29%	8%	72	-0.7	209/280/324	115	279	10	37	27%	8%	70	-0.6
✕Elijah Dunham 2023 · AA	25	44	48→50	58→60	47	221/295/372	151	285	15	28	27%	8%	88	+0.5	208/279/348	140	290	14	25	31%	8%	77	-0.3	192/263/324	133	273	13	24	33%	8%	63	-0.8
●Jake McCarthy 2022 · MLB	25	43→53	49→50	63→60	43	217/282/372	156	302	15	30	32%	8%	83	+0.1	264/327/402	138	323	13	34	21%	7%	107	+1.8	277/340/401	125	327	11	37	18%	7%	111	+1.8
✕Dustin Harris 2024 · AAA	25	45→55	49→50	59→60	49	228/305/379	151	286	16	26	26%	9%	94	+0.9	242/308/364	122	304	11	30	23%	8%	91	+0.7	253/317/371	118	309	11	34	21%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Dru Baker 2024 · AA	24	50→57	45→40	63→60	41	240/298/365	124	331	13	32	30%	6%	88	+0.4	237/286/315	78	336	6	30	29%	5%	71	-0.8	235/283/299	64	337	4	32	30%	5%	63	-0.9
✕Garrett Hampson 2020 · MLB	25	51→57	42→45	59→60	46	247/299/357	111	310	9	28	23%	7%	86	+0.3	224/280/343	119	294	11	22	26%	7%	76	-0.4	237/300/344	108	310	8	22	25%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Brent Lillibridge 2009 · MLB	25	47→54	43→50	59→60	43	228/283/346	118	296	9	28	26%	6%	78	-0.3	222/283/338	116	293	11	29	27%	7%	76	-0.4	222/280/356	134	299	17	36	30%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Anthony Norman 2009 · A	24	46→41	47→50	62→55	51	228/308/371	143	270	13	24	21%	9%	93	+0.8	215/288/341	126	275	11	14	24%	8%	79	-0.2	207/276/315	108	283	7	9	27%	7%	67	-0.3
✕Tyler Greene 2010 · MLB	26	45→50	47→50	58→55	39	227/280/361	134	302	15	24	30%	5%	80	-0.2	235/298/376	141	316	15	23	29%	7%	91	+0.6	233/298/380	148	312	15	24	29%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Chad Hinshaw 2016 · AA	25	48→42	42→45	57→55	43	228/304/339	111	319	9	28	29%	7%	84	+0.2	200/268/298	98	296	8	19	33%	6%	61	-1.5	168/236/258	91	253	8	18	35%	6%	38	-1.4
✕Nate Eaton 2023 · MLB	26	46→49	44→45	60	44	225/292/346	121	294	12	29	27%	7%	81	-0.1	214/264/339	125	280	13	27	28%	5%	69	-0.9	210/267/331	121	274	12	27	27%	6%	67	-0.8
✕Tanner Kirwer 2022 · AA	26	43	44→40	61→60	47	210/297/324	114	292	13	36	30%	9%	79	-0.2	205/278/294	89	293	9	31	31%	8%	64	-1.3	190/262/256	66	274	7	35	31%	7%	48	-1.2
✕Bradley Zimmer 2018 · MLB	25	49→51	47→50	59→60	43	233/303/377	144	340	14	29	34%	8%	93	+0.8	232/302/368	136	340	14	22	33%	8%	91	+0.6	202/291/307	105	323	12	23	37%	7%	73	-0.2
✕Samad Taylor 2023 · AAA	25	48→58	49→50	58→65	43	237/301/382	145	322	17	33	31%	7%	93	+0.8	243/315/357	114	332	10	40	27%	9%	92	+0.7	253/319/358	105	339	9	36	26%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Nate Tenbrink 2012 · AA	25	46→53	46→50	58→50	46	227/294/363	136	293	12	17	26%	8%	86	+0.3	223/294/368	145	323	15	13	33%	8%	87	+0.4	218/292/364	145	330	15	11	36%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Leo German 2017 · AAA	24	51→57	43→45	61→55	40	246/294/361	115	315	9	28	24%	5%	84	+0.2	272/309/356	84	356	6	22	24%	4%	88	+0.5	288/324/364	77	371	6	19	23%	4%	92	+0.5
✕Alen Hanson 2018 · MLB	25	49→53	43→50	60	43	239/278/357	118	288	10	30	21%	5%	77	-0.3	230/269/362	132	285	13	19	23%	5%	76	-0.4	232/269/369	137	288	12	18	23%	4%	75	-0.2

Tony Santa Maria

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps