Will Gagnon

P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	29	7	73	3.56	2.87	34.2%	15.9%	—	K 25.6% · BB 18.7% · FIP 4.15
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAD	49	0	51	5.10	5.10	25.1%	17.5%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBLAD	28	0	29	4.85	4.74	25.5%	15.0%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBLAD	43	0	45	4.64	4.52	25.7%	13.3%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsPreston Johnson (age 24) · Alec Barger (age 23) · Blake Holub (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%25.1%

BB%17.5%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	7	73	333	114	53	4	24%	2.5	25.6%	18.7%	6.9%	1.5%	3.56	4.15	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	7	73	333	114	53	4	24%	2.5	25.6%	18.7%	6.9%	1.5%	3.56	4.15	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	7	73	333	114	53	4	24%	2.5	34.2%	15.9%	18.3%	1.2%	3.56	2.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	LAD	49	0	51	215	54	38	6	0%	1.0	25.1%	17.5%	7.6%	2.8%	5.10	5.10	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	64	0	68	285	73	43	8	0%	1.1	25.5%	15.0%	10.5%	2.8%	4.85	4.74	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	65	0	68	289	74	39	8	0%	1.1	25.7%	13.3%	12.4%	2.8%	4.64	4.52	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	65	0	68	289	75	38	8	0%	1.1	25.8%	13.1%	12.7%	2.8%	4.54	4.49	+0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	64	0	67	285	73	37	8	0%	1.1	25.7%	13.1%	12.7%	2.8%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	62	0	65	276	71	37	8	0%	1.1	25.6%	13.2%	12.4%	2.9%	4.57	4.60	-0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAD	60	0	62	264	67	35	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	13.5%	11.9%	3.1%	4.67	4.73	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	28	0	29	122	31	18	3	0%	1.0	25.5%	15.0%	10.5%	2.8%	4.85	4.74	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	43	0	45	190	49	25	5	0%	1.0	25.7%	13.3%	12.4%	2.8%	4.64	4.52	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	51	0	54	228	59	30	6	0%	1.1	25.8%	13.1%	12.7%	2.8%	4.54	4.49	+0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	54	0	57	241	62	31	7	0%	1.1	25.7%	13.1%	12.7%	2.8%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	55	0	58	245	63	32	7	0%	1.1	25.6%	13.2%	12.4%	2.9%	4.57	4.60	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAD	54	0	57	241	61	32	7	0%	1.1	25.4%	13.5%	11.9%	3.1%	4.67	4.73	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		287	0	301	1270	326	170	37	0%	1.0	25.6%	13.4%	12.2%	2.9%	4.61	4.21	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	217	113	25	0%	1.1	25.6%	13.4%	12.2%	2.9%	4.61	4.21	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		29	7	73	333	85	62	5	24%	2.5	25.6%	18.7%	6.9%	1.5%	3.56	4.15	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	19	200	908	232	170	14	24%	2.5	25.6%	18.7%	6.9%	1.5%	3.56	4.15	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Gagnon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	25.1%	17.5%	2.8%	—	4.58	25.7%	11.9%	204	-0.52	—	—	—
Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SU	3.94	23.7%	18.2%	1.0%	.331	5.04	22.6%	10.5%	137	+1.10	3.94	193	82
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	82
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	82
Corey Black R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	23	SW	4.19	22.1%	13.9%	2.2%	.310	3.56	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.56	139	81
Cole McDonald R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	25	SW	5.07	26.5%	19.8%	3.1%	.403	3.87	23.6%	11.6%	93	-1.20	2.81	153	81
Austin Vernon R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	26.6%	14.9%	3.0%	.234	4.62	22.7%	7.9%	182	+0.24	3.37	261	81
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	79
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	79
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	78
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	78
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	78
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	78
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	77
Isaac Stebens R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	24.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.328	4.14	21.1%	5.6%	50	+0.01	4.13	102	77
Dylan Heid R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	21.6%	16.9%	2.4%	.287	3.33	22.6%	9.0%	103	-1.37	2.66	135	77
Dylan King R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	22	SW	4.43	21.4%	20.5%	1.0%	.233	4.79	27.1%	17.7%	90	+0.36	3.78	121	77
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	76
Cameron Junker R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	28.5%	19.3%	1.6%	.226	4.72	17.8%	2.8%	117	+0.68	4.04	147	75
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	75
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	450	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	64	25.6%	14.0%	1.10	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Rex Brothers ('21)	1.6	54	27.6%	13.5%	0.98	4.08
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*