Johan Minaya — OGILVIE

Johan Minaya P DSL Padres Gold

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 20 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 116

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%21.3%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	12	2	31	159	32	29	1	17%	2.6	13.7%	22.8%	-9.1%	0.9%	7.84	5.35	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	12	2	31	159	32	29	1	17%	2.6	20.1%	18.2%	1.9%	0.6%	7.84	4.26	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	13	3	36	152	32	16	3	23%	2.8	14.3%	13.2%	1.2%	3.0%	4.00	5.23	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	13	3	36	152	32	16	3	23%	2.8	14.3%	13.2%	1.2%	3.0%	4.00	5.23	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	13	3	36	152	32	16	3	23%	2.8	21.1%	10.5%	10.5%	2.0%	4.00	3.74	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	16	0	33	143	35	23	1	0%	2.0	16.6%	20.1%	-3.5%	1.0%	4.13	4.80	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	16	0	33	143	35	23	1	0%	2.0	16.6%	20.1%	-3.5%	1.0%	4.13	4.80	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	16	0	33	143	35	23	1	0%	2.0	24.5%	16.1%	8.4%	0.7%	4.13	3.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SD	19	0	20	84	18	13	3	0%	1.1	21.3%	15.3%	6.0%	3.0%	5.24	5.24	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	29	0	30	129	29	17	4	0%	1.1	22.3%	13.3%	9.0%	2.9%	4.99	4.88	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	14	0	15	63	14	8	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	13.3%	9.0%	2.9%	4.99	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	63	14	8	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	13.3%	9.0%	2.9%	4.99	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	107	27	0%	1.1	22.3%	13.3%	9.0%	2.9%	4.99	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		41	5	100	454	67	85	8	12%	2.4	14.8%	18.7%	-3.9%	1.7%	5.24	5.14	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	10	200	911	135	171	15	12%	2.4	14.8%	18.7%	-3.9%	1.7%	5.24	5.14	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johan Minaya (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	21.3%	15.3%	3.0%	—	4.88	22.3%	9.0%	30	-0.36	—	—	—
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	88
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	86
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	85
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	85
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	84
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	84
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	84
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	83
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	83
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	83
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Marc Davis R 2022 · 5.26 FIP	22	SU	5.26	20.7%	14.0%	3.9%	.151	4.87	17.1%	-0.3%	88	-0.39	4.02	111	82
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	82
Dylan Heid R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	21.6%	16.9%	2.4%	.287	3.33	22.6%	9.0%	103	-1.37	2.66	135	82
Junior Montero R 2021 · 4.54 FIP	22	SU	4.54	18.5%	15.8%	1.8%	.319	5.31	20.2%	-3.7%	32	+0.77	4.54	100	81
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	81
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	81
Joangel Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	20	SU	4.23	18.3%	11.7%	2.1%	.312	5.15	18.3%	2.5%	116	+0.92	3.93	151	81
Alix Hernandez R 2024 · 4.44 FIP	20	SU	4.44	21.7%	13.7%	2.6%	.300	5.16	23.0%	11.4%	78	+0.72	3.55	170	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	21.9%	14.1%	1.14	5.09
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27