Luis AriasIF
FCL Nationals
Age 21
L/R
6'0" / 165 lbs
ROK
HR -9%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 1.0 · 2031
wRC+†66
AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .277 / .317
PA110
HR2
K%29
BB%8
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
29↗34
PWR
30↗35
SPD
49↗54
EYE
45↗50
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2031
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.0 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| 2037 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $12M | $23M | +$10M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 113 | 104 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 5 | 3 | .135 | .196 | .173 | .370 | .038 | .215 | 35 | 7 | .172 | -10 | -14 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -1.1 |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 132 | 121 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 0 | .231 | .290 | .281 | .571 | .050 | .338 | 31 | 6 | .252 | 51 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +4 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | WSH | 110 | 99 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .212 | .284 | .333 | .618 | .121 | .283 | 29 | 8 | .271 | 66 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB 11% | WSH | 191 | 171 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 1 | .216 | .291 | .339 | .630 | .123 | .285 | 28 | 8 | .285 | 76 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB 28% | WSH | 307 | 274 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 84 | 3 | 6 | 1 | .223 | .299 | .354 | .653 | .131 | .286 | 27 | 9 | .293 | 83 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +9 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB 45% | WSH | 389 | 347 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 104 | 4 | 8 | 2 | .225 | .303 | .363 | .666 | .138 | .287 | 27 | 9 | .299 | 87 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +11 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB 60% | WSH | 436 | 389 | 89 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 40 | 115 | 4 | 9 | 2 | .229 | .307 | .378 | .685 | .149 | .288 | 26 | 9 | .303 | 90 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +12 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB 77% | WSH | 465 | 413 | 94 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 44 | 123 | 5 | 10 | 2 | .228 | .310 | .370 | .680 | .143 | .288 | 26 | 9 | .305 | 91 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +13 | 1.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB 92% | WSH | 478 | 424 | 96 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 46 | 127 | 5 | 10 | 2 | .226 | .309 | .373 | .682 | .146 | .288 | 27 | 10 | .305 | 91 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +14 | 1.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 481 | 427 | 96 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 46 | 128 | 5 | 10 | 2 | .225 | .308 | .370 | .678 | .145 | .288 | 27 | 10 | .304 | 90 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +0 | +14 | 0.9 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 477 | 423 | 94 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 129 | 5 | 9 | 1 | .222 | .306 | .362 | .668 | .139 | .287 | 27 | 10 | .301 | 89 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +0 | +14 | 0.8 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 470 | 416 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 128 | 5 | 9 | 1 | .221 | .306 | .361 | .667 | .139 | .285 | 27 | 10 | .298 | 86 | -7 | +1 | -2 | +0 | +13 | 0.6 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 458 | 407 | 87 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 44 | 127 | 4 | 8 | 0 | .214 | .297 | .342 | .638 | .128 | .284 | 28 | 10 | .295 | 84 | -9 | +2 | -3 | +0 | +13 | 0.3 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 441 | 391 | 83 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 125 | 4 | 7 | 0 | .212 | .297 | .338 | .634 | .125 | .282 | 28 | 10 | .290 | 80 | -10 | +1 | -4 | +0 | +12 | 0.0 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 412 | 365 | 76 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 40 | 119 | 4 | 7 | 0 | .208 | .293 | .329 | .622 | .121 | .281 | 29 | 10 | .284 | 76 | -11 | +1 | -4 | +0 | +12 | -0.2 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 368 | 327 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 110 | 3 | 6 | 0 | .205 | .288 | .324 | .612 | .119 | .279 | 30 | 10 | .278 | 71 | -12 | +1 | -5 | +0 | +10 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 5728 | 5098 | 1113 | 197 | 32 | 136 | 533 | 1585 | 56 | 114 | 17 | .218 | .299 | .350 | .649 | .131 | .287 | 28 | 9 | .292 | 82 | -117 | +16 | -20 | +0 | +162 | 4.3 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 579 | 126 | 22 | 4 | 15 | 60 | 180 | 6 | 13 | 2 | .218 | .298 | .347 | .645 | .130 | .287 | 28 | 9 | .292 | 82 | -13 | +2 | -2 | +0 | +18 | 0.5 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 113 | 99 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 0 | 5 | 3 | .192 | .286 | .253 | .538 | .061 | .264 | 24 | 12 | .253 | 51 | -6 | -0 | — | — | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 132 | 116 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 2 | 4 | 0 | .293 | .374 | .388 | .762 | .095 | .368 | 21 | 10 | .345 | 122 | +3 | +1 | — | — | +4 | 0.8 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Luis Arias (OGILVIE) | 21 | 29→34 | 30→35 | 49→54 | 50 | .206/.277/.317 | .111 | .283 | 2 | 2 | 29% | 8% | 66 | -0.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A |
21 | 37 | 44→50 | 49→50 | 40 | .188/.259/.305 | .117 | .281 | 12 | 9 | 36% | 7% | 55 | -1.4 | .194/.278/.291 | .097 | .346 | 7 | 8 | 42% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .146/.273/.221 | .075 | .359 | 3 | 4 | 52% | 12% | 39 | -0.5 |
|
✕LeVon Washington 2012 · A |
21 | 44 | 39→45 | 51→50 | 46 | .205/.280/.288 | .083 | .305 | 6 | 13 | 32% | 9% | 59 | -1.1 | .234/.309/.335 | .101 | .341 | 7 | 12 | 30% | 9% | 82 | +0.5 | .246/.314/.364 | .118 | .341 | 8 | 12 | 28% | 8% | 89 | +0.4 |
|
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A |
21 | 38→33 | 43→45 | 51→50 | 43 | .192/.259/.300 | .108 | .274 | 11 | 13 | 33% | 8% | 53 | -1.5 | .205/.268/.319 | .114 | .301 | 12 | 12 | 34% | 7% | 62 | -0.9 | .179/.252/.298 | .118 | .265 | 14 | 11 | 36% | 8% | 49 | -1.0 |
|
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A |
20 | 38 | 40→45 | 47→45 | 45 | .183/.271/.272 | .089 | .286 | 7 | 6 | 36% | 10% | 52 | -1.6 | .190/.265/.267 | .077 | .298 | 5 | 6 | 35% | 9% | 47 | -1.9 | .182/.268/.267 | .085 | .274 | 6 | 3 | 33% | 10% | 48 | -0.6 |
|
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A |
20 | 38→41 | 46→50 | 53→55 | 45 | .189/.278/.319 | .129 | .289 | 14 | 15 | 37% | 10% | 67 | -0.5 | .210/.289/.331 | .121 | .326 | 12 | 16 | 36% | 9% | 74 | -0.1 | .216/.296/.349 | .133 | .314 | 15 | 19 | 33% | 9% | 78 | +0.1 |
|
✕Travis Swaggerty 2019 · A |
21 | 39→45 | 41→45 | 50→55 | 40 | .195/.252/.295 | .100 | .280 | 9 | 8 | 32% | 6% | 48 | -1.9 | .208/.273/.306 | .098 | .298 | 9 | 15 | 31% | 8% | 60 | -1.0 | .207/.275/.308 | .100 | .303 | 8 | 19 | 32% | 8% | 58 | -0.7 |
|
✕Michael Swinson 2011 · A |
21 | 41 | 40 | 52→50 | 43 | .201/.265/.297 | .096 | .277 | 7 | 12 | 29% | 7% | 54 | -1.4 | .203/.269/.278 | .075 | .263 | 4 | 10 | 22% | 8% | 50 | -1.7 | .199/.271/.260 | .062 | .258 | 2 | 10 | 22% | 9% | 45 | -1.0 |
|
✕Ricardo Méndez 2021 · A |
21 | 43 | 39→45 | 54→50 | 40 | .206/.263/.293 | .087 | .303 | 7 | 13 | 33% | 6% | 52 | -1.6 | .215/.257/.315 | .100 | .316 | 7 | 12 | 32% | 5% | 54 | -1.4 | .210/.249/.305 | .095 | .301 | 6 | 14 | 31% | 5% | 45 | -1.2 |
|
✕Kier Meredith 2022 · A |
22 | 43 | 37→30 | 51→60 | 45 | .202/.271/.271 | .070 | .286 | 4 | 11 | 29% | 8% | 50 | -1.7 | .211/.307/.281 | .070 | .293 | 4 | 26 | 27% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .229/.340/.278 | .049 | .305 | 3 | 35 | 22% | 10% | 80 | +0.1 |
|
✕Parker Meadows 2021 · A |
21 | 40→47 | 41→55 | 46→55 | 42 | .197/.253/.288 | .091 | .267 | 9 | 9 | 29% | 7% | 47 | -1.9 | .203/.263/.335 | .132 | .270 | 14 | 12 | 29% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .225/.292/.400 | .175 | .278 | 20 | 21 | 26% | 8% | 91 | +1.1 |
|
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2018 · A |
21 | 42→43 | 45→55 | 54→50 | 40 | .209/.270/.337 | .128 | .288 | 12 | 8 | 31% | 6% | 67 | -0.5 | .208/.259/.341 | .133 | .291 | 14 | 8 | 32% | 5% | 63 | -0.8 | .211/.283/.380 | .168 | .276 | 21 | 6 | 31% | 8% | 81 | +0.3 |
|
✕Andry Arias 2021 · A |
21 | 40 | 39→40 | 51→40 | 41 | .192/.258/.281 | .089 | .282 | 7 | 8 | 32% | 7% | 48 | -1.9 | .188/.253/.288 | .100 | .291 | 9 | 6 | 36% | 7% | 47 | -1.9 | .161/.229/.261 | .100 | .244 | 9 | 3 | 36% | 7% | 28 | -1.0 |
|
✕Juan Silva 2012 · A |
21 | 42→47 | 40→45 | 47→55 | 41 | .199/.262/.291 | .092 | .304 | 7 | 7 | 35% | 8% | 51 | -1.7 | .224/.299/.326 | .102 | .311 | 9 | 19 | 28% | 9% | 76 | +0.1 | .231/.314/.336 | .105 | .311 | 8 | 29 | 26% | 10% | 84 | +0.4 |
|
✕Conner Capel 2018 · A |
21 | 39→45 | 47→45 | 49→55 | 43 | .201/.254/.339 | .137 | .252 | 14 | 11 | 26% | 6% | 61 | -1.0 | .209/.262/.324 | .115 | .281 | 11 | 11 | 28% | 6% | 60 | -1.0 | .216/.288/.339 | .123 | .271 | 13 | 19 | 24% | 8% | 71 | -0.2 |
|
✕Ashton McGee 2021 · A |
22 | 41 | 39→50 | 50→40 | 41 | .194/.258/.283 | .089 | .288 | 5 | 5 | 33% | 7% | 48 | -1.9 | .206/.290/.322 | .116 | .364 | 11 | 3 | 42% | 10% | 72 | -0.2 | .191/.284/.307 | .117 | .346 | 12 | 2 | 44% | 11% | 63 | -0.4 |
|
✕Mike Papi 2015 · A |
22 | 39→47 | 41→45 | 50→45 | 50 | .193/.270/.290 | .097 | .251 | 9 | 7 | 26% | 9% | 56 | -1.3 | .198/.278/.306 | .108 | .280 | 9 | 6 | 30% | 9% | 63 | -0.8 | .211/.294/.337 | .126 | .280 | 14 | 4 | 28% | 10% | 76 | +0.1 |
|
●Bo Naylor 2021 · A |
21 | 41→43 | 44→55 | 50 | 43 | .203/.259/.325 | .122 | .273 | 11 | 7 | 29% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .199/.278/.352 | .153 | .276 | 18 | 12 | 33% | 9% | 75 | -0.0 | .216/.308/.399 | .183 | .269 | 22 | 12 | 28% | 11% | 97 | +1.2 |
|
✕Nick Maton 2019 · A |
22 | 41 | 43→50 | 47→45 | 40 | .205/.254/.316 | .111 | .280 | 10 | 6 | 30% | 6% | 54 | -1.4 | .206/.270/.307 | .101 | .282 | 9 | 8 | 28% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .214/.305/.368 | .154 | .264 | 18 | 4 | 25% | 10% | 88 | +0.6 |
|
✕Daury Arias 2023 · A |
21 | 40→38 | 43→40 | 46→45 | 50 | .198/.284/.309 | .111 | .250 | 11 | 8 | 24% | 9% | 66 | -0.6 | .184/.265/.269 | .085 | .268 | 7 | 9 | 31% | 9% | 49 | -1.8 | .162/.246/.233 | .072 | .243 | 6 | 9 | 33% | 9% | 28 | -1.7 |
|
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A |
21 | 39→49 | 38→45 | 58→55 | 45 | .188/.259/.276 | .088 | .265 | 5 | 16 | 29% | 8% | 46 | -2.0 | .210/.284/.296 | .086 | .280 | 6 | 17 | 25% | 8% | 63 | -0.9 | .229/.318/.327 | .099 | .300 | 9 | 17 | 24% | 11% | 81 | +0.3 |