Luis Arias — OGILVIE

Luis AriasIF FCL Nationals

Age 21 L/R 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION143 act + 95 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†32

AVG/OBP/SLG.158 / .220 / .215

PA95

HR1

K%37

BB%6

BABIP248

ISO57

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	113	104	14	4	0	0	8	39	0	5	3	135	196	173	370	38	215	35	7	172	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	113	99	19	6	0	0	13	27	0	5	3	192	286	253	538	61	264	24	12	253	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	132	121	28	3	0	1	8	41	2	4	0	231	290	281	571	50	338	31	6	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	132	116	34	5	0	2	13	28	2	4	0	293	374	388	762	95	368	21	10	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	ROK	WSH	—	143	131	21	2	0	3	9	70	2	1	1	160	225	244	470	84	305	49	6	197	9	-15	-0	+0	+0	+4	-1.1
YTD	21	ROK	WSH	—	143	126	30	3	0	4	14	49	2	1	1	238	324	357	681	119	351	34	10	309	95	-1	-0	+0	+0	+4	0.3
ROS	21	ROK	WSH	0%	95	88	14	2	0	1	6	35	1	1	1	158	220	215	435	57	273	37	6	227	32	-7	-0	+0	+0	+3	-0.5
ROS	21	MLB	WSH	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		273	—	—	220	26	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	ROK	WSH	—	143	132	21	2	0	3	9	70	2	1	1	159	225	242	468	83	300	49	6	197	9	-15	-0	+0	+0	+4	-1.1
TOT	21	ROK	WSH	—	238	219	35	4	0	4	15	105	3	2	2	160	223	233	456	73	278	44	6	209	18	-22	-0	+0	+0	+7	-1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	WSH	34%	250	229	43	7	1	4	17	88	2	4	1	188	250	279	529	92	275	35	7	238	41	-17	+0	+0	+0	+7	-0.9
2027	22	MLB	WSH	34%	86	79	13	2	0	1	6	30	1	1	0	165	233	228	460	63	275	35	7	231	35	-6	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	86	80	13	2	0	1	6	30	1	1	0	163	233	225	458	62	245	35	7	231	35	-6	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	605	99	15	0	8	45	227	8	8	0	164	234	228	462	64	246	35	7	231	35	-48	+2	+0	+0	+18	-2.8
Career	—			—	590	542	99	16	1	6	39	203	5	14	5	183	244	249	493	66	277	34	7	227	32	-45	+1	+0	+0	+17	-2.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	110	18	1	7	43	224	6	15	6	184	246	253	499	69	280	34	7	227	32	-50	+1	+0	+0	+18	-3.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	113	99	19	6	0	0	13	27	0	5	3	192	286	253	538	61	264	24	12	253	51	-6	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2025	20	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	132	116	34	5	0	2	13	28	2	4	0	293	374	388	762	95	368	21	10	345	122	+3	+1	—	—	+4	0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Juan Castrolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA	11	2,352	34	4	237	273	341	+10	+21	1.0	2.7
	/162	664	10	1	237	273	341	+3.0	+5.8	0.3	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	231	3	4	184	245	266	+0	+0	-0.9	-0.5
	/162	664	8	11	184	245	266	+0.0	+0.0	-2.7	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Arias (OGILVIE)	21	20→25	34→39	47→52	49	160/223/233	73	278	4	2	44%	6%	18	-1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Henrry Rosario 2014 · A	21	37	38→45	47→45	44	180/249/266	85	257	5	8	30%	8%	40	-2.4	199/253/304	105	256	8	7	24%	6%	50	-1.7	205/253/337	132	255	14	9	25%	5%	57	-0.4
✕Jacob Pearson 2019 · A	21	38→39	39→40	45→50	40	188/239/268	81	267	6	8	31%	6%	36	-2.7	192/246/285	93	267	8	11	29%	7%	43	-2.2	173/239/278	105	242	10	19	32%	7%	37	-1.0
✕Andry Arias 2021 · A	21	40	40	52→40	41	192/259/281	89	288	7	8	34%	7%	48	-1.9	189/254/288	99	297	8	6	37%	7%	48	-1.9	161/231/261	100	250	9	3	37%	7%	29	-1.0
✕Jordan Viars 2023 · A	20	39	39→40	52→45	41	191/262/272	80	279	8	7	32%	7%	47	-1.9	179/257/278	99	298	9	5	40%	7%	48	-1.9	155/238/255	100	269	11	4	43%	7%	31	-1.3
✕Francisco Del Valle 2019 · A	20	37→27	39→45	50→40	39	181/243/264	83	279	7	6	36%	7%	37	-2.7	173/248/280	107	258	9	4	34%	8%	44	-2.1	156/230/268	112	219	11	3	33%	7%	31	-1.6
✕Dan Arcila 2011 · A	21	35	38→40	53→50	39	171/232/247	76	265	5	12	36%	7%	27	-3.3	197/253/328	131	268	13	6	30%	6%	57	-1.2	176/236/342	166	218	19	3	29%	6%	50	-0.7
✕Ignacio Valdez 2016 · A	21	34	39→45	48→50	38	168/235/254	87	269	6	8	38%	7%	31	-3.0	170/233/292	122	289	14	4	43%	7%	40	-2.4	133/182/263	130	199	17	0	43%	5%	8	-1.1
✕Héctor Gómez 2009 · A	21	36	41→45	49→50	44	183/251/274	91	264	9	10	33%	8%	43	-2.2	186/242/272	86	278	6	7	33%	7%	38	-2.6	139/175/225	86	207	3	2	33%	4%	-8	-1.5
✕Luis Paz 2017 · A	21	38→33	40→45	51→40	36	187/231/286	99	279	7	6	35%	5%	36	-2.7	202/247/339	137	299	16	4	36%	5%	58	-1.2	187/232/337	150	261	21	1	36%	5%	48	-1.3
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A	21	38→31	43→45	51→50	41	190/257/298	109	284	11	12	35%	8%	52	-1.6	205/269/317	112	309	11	12	35%	7%	62	-0.9	180/254/293	113	270	13	11	36%	8%	49	-1.0
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→29	42→45	49→50	44	189/258/299	110	261	8	12	30%	8%	53	-1.5	172/250/256	84	262	6	9	34%	9%	38	-2.6	154/242/228	74	235	5	8	33%	9%	26	-2.0
✕Cristhian Vasquez 2017 · A	20	32	38→30	49→50	42	161/225/240	79	224	6	8	30%	7%	23	-3.6	195/251/268	73	259	4	9	25%	6%	40	-2.4	190/244/248	58	247	2	11	22%	5%	30	-1.4
✕Deivis Nadal 2023 · A	21	37	36→40	48→55	37	175/244/240	65	289	3	14	38%	6%	31	-3.0	173/255/277	104	332	9	19	46%	9%	46	-2.0	140/234/249	109	282	11	25	49%	10%	28	-1.4
✕Yordi Francisco 2018 · A	21	39	37→45	49→55	36	187/239/258	71	282	4	8	34%	5%	33	-2.9	192/248/279	87	287	7	11	34%	5%	43	-2.2	170/230/261	90	257	8	16	35%	5%	29	-1.0
✕Alvaro Sosa 2007 · A	21	37	37→40	50→45	38	181/228/255	74	270	4	8	34%	6%	27	-3.3	196/241/269	73	261	3	8	25%	5%	37	-2.7	196/241/266	70	251	1	7	21%	5%	32	-0.9
✕David Calabrese 2023 · A	20	38→37	41→45	56→50	41	186/249/288	102	279	8	15	35%	7%	45	-2.1	184/254/304	120	272	13	13	35%	8%	53	-1.5	166/230/262	96	226	11	13	31%	7%	28	-1.4
✕Mitchell Hansen 2017 · A	21	41→37	42→45	51→50	35	205/247/306	101	298	10	9	34%	5%	48	-1.9	194/241/302	108	284	10	9	33%	6%	45	-2.1	178/227/288	110	257	10	9	34%	6%	33	-1.7
✕Angel Basabe 2022 · A	21	39	36→45	54→50	39	186/249/256	70	269	2	9	30%	5%	37	-2.6	200/262/282	82	293	3	10	31%	7%	49	-1.8	196/257/304	108	273	2	16	27%	7%	47	-0.3
✕Leandro Pineda 2023 · A	21	36→39	39→45	47→45	42	172/250/266	95	272	5	6	36%	8%	41	-2.3	201/268/322	121	279	12	6	31%	7%	63	-0.9	202/271/322	120	261	12	6	26%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Richard D Oleo 2007 · A	21	39	39→40	50→45	43	188/259/274	87	296	6	8	36%	9%	46	-2.0	189/249/276	87	272	7	7	31%	7%	42	-2.3	171/229/254	83	235	7	7	29%	7%	27	-1.1