Luis Arias

IF FCL Nationals
Age 22 L/R 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419ROKWSH113.192/.286/.253054—.135/.196/.173
202520ROKWSH132.293/.374/.3882455—.223/.282/.273
202621ROKWSH146.233/.317/.3494114—.142/.207/.201
2027PROJMLE22MLBWSH256.181/.245/.2623443-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB23MLBWSH40.186/.250/.2741149-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
ISO50
Z-Con%34
Chase%25
wRC+20
Whiff%19
wOBA16
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%
CompsMisael Urbina (age 22) · Francisco Del Valle (age 22) · Garrett Spain (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj PA
wRC+†43
AVG/OBP/SLG.180 / .243 / .260
PA76
HR1
K%33
BB%7
ISO81
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.0 runs (Positional adjustment)+0POSREP: +1.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.3-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 42
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT25
scouting grade only
POWER42
scouting grade only
EYE47
scouting grade only
SPEED51
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202419 ROKFCL Nationals — 11399 19600 13270 53 192286253538 61264 2412 253 4 — — — — — —
202520 ROKFCL Nationals — 132116 34502 13282 40 293374388762 95368 2110 345 55 — — — — — —
202621 ROKFCL Nationals — 146129 30304 14512 11 233317349666 116347 3510 303 14 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202419 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 113104 14400 8390 53 135196173370 38214 357 174 4 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 132121 27301 8412 40 223282273555 50316 316 249 55 — — — — — —
202621 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 146134 19202 9732 11 142207201408 60278 506 189 14 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 113104 14400 8390 53 135196173370 38215 357 174 4 — — — — — —
202419 ROK RAWFCL Nationals — 11399 19600 13270 53 192286253538 61264 2412 253 4 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 132121 27301 8412 40 223282273555 50325 316 249 55 — — — — — —
202520 ROK RAWFCL Nationals — 132116 34502 13282 40 293374388762 95368 2110 345 55 — — — — — —
202621 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 146134 19202 9732 11 142207201408 60283 506 189 14 — — — — — —
202621 ROK RAWFCL Nationals — 146129 30304 14512 11 233317349666 116347 3510 303 14 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 113104 14400 8390 53 135196173370 38214 357 174 4 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 132121 27301 8412 40 223282273555 50316 316 249 55 — — — — — —
202621 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 146134 19202 9732 11 142207201408 60278 506 189 14 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 113104 14400 8390 53 135196173370 38214 357 174 4 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 132121 27301 8412 40 223282273555 50316 316 249 55 — — — — — —
202621 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 146134 19202 9732 11 142207201408 60278 506 189 14 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLEWSH 0% 256235 42713 17842 41 181245262507 81265 337 232 43 -17 +0 +0 +0 +6 -0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLEWSH 34% 117107 20312 8381 21 187250276526 89267 327 240 49 -7 +0 +0 +0 +3 -0.5
202823 MLB CTXWSH 34% 4037 7101 3130 10 186250274524 88267 328 240 49 -2 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 4037 7101 3130 10 189250297547 108261 328 240 32 -2 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650601 11316016 492110 160 188249295544 106259 328 240 32 -40 +3 +0 +0 +14 -2.3
Career— MLE — 584536 921416 382166 135 172234235470 63271 377 216 32 -12 +0 +0 +0 +4 -0.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650597 1031617 422407 146 173235238473 65272 376 216 32 -41 +1 +0 +0 +14 -2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Nationals · 146 PAwOBA .297 → .189 (−108)K% 34.9% → 50.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA34.93%÷1.000×1.440——50.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.59%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9855.86%
HBP% /PA1.37%—×0.720—×0.9850.97%
Singles /BIP29.49%÷1.000×0.820×1.022×0.98524.33%
Doubles /BIP3.85%÷1.000×0.720×1.022×0.9852.79%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720×1.022×0.9850.00%
Home runs /BIP5.13%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9853.94%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .297 → .189; ISO .116 → .071; BABIP .347 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Nationals · 132 PAwOBA .339 → .249 (−90)K% 21.2% → 30.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.21%÷0.995×1.440——30.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.85%÷1.012×0.620—×0.9956.00%
HBP% /PA1.52%—×0.720—×0.9951.09%
Singles /BIP30.68%÷0.946×0.820×1.050×0.99527.79%
Doubles /BIP5.68%÷1.138×0.720×1.050×0.9953.76%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.929×0.720×1.050×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP2.27%÷1.328×0.780—×0.9951.33%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 89, 2B 128, 3B 86, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .339 → .249; ISO .095 → .055; BABIP .368 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Nationals · 113 PAwOBA .247 → .174 (−73)K% 23.9% → 34.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.89%÷0.999×1.440——34.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.50%÷0.979×0.620—×1.0087.34%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×1.0080.00%
Singles /BIP18.06%÷1.021×0.820×1.031×1.00815.07%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷0.987×0.720×1.031×1.0086.31%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.025×0.720×1.031×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.975×0.780—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 105, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .247 → .174; ISO .061 → .042; BABIP .264 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).