Stephen Paolini — OGILVIE

Stephen PaoliniCF Columbus Clingstones

Age 25 L/L 6'1" / 195 lbs AA BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

wRC+†30

AVG/OBP/SLG.163 / .229 / .255

PA176

HR3

SB6

K%44

BB%7

MLB%2%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

20→20

PWR

39→39

SPD

61→61

EYE

43→43

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.8peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-13M		$-37M	-$24M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$24M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	GCL Braves	143	128	16	4	0	0	14	53	0	2	1	.125	.211	.156	.368	.031	.211	37	10	.174	-9	-18	+0	+0	+1	+4	-1.3
2021	20	A	Augusta GreenJackets	392	358	38	7	2	2	26	230	5	15	6	.106	.177	.154	.331	.047	.279	59	7	.156	-22	-54	+1	+0	+1	+11	-4.2
2022	21	A	Augusta GreenJackets	468	418	73	14	2	5	40	175	5	18	9	.175	.255	.254	.508	.079	.280	37	9	.234	37	-33	+0	+0	+2	+13	-1.9
2023	22	A+	Rome Braves	241	213	32	6	1	2	21	121	5	6	2	.150	.243	.216	.459	.066	.330	50	9	.214	22	-21	+0	+0	+1	+7	-1.3
2024	23	A+	Rome Emperors	404	373	63	13	2	5	24	175	3	20	2	.169	.225	.255	.480	.086	.294	43	6	.215	23	-35	+3	+0	+1	+11	-2.0
2025	24	AA	2 teams	181	166	24	2	0	5	11	78	3	20	3	.145	.211	.247	.458	.102	.226	43	6	.207	16	-17	+3	+0	+1	+5	-0.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	ATL	176	160	27	5	1	3	12	77	2	6	1	.169	.236	.269	.504	.100	.284	44	7	.224	30	-14	+1	+0	+1	+5	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	26	MLB 11%	ATL	264	240	42	8	1	5	19	109	3	9	1	.175	.244	.279	.523	.104	.286	41	7	.237	39	-18	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.8
2028	27	MLB 26%	ATL	315	285	50	9	1	6	24	126	3	11	2	.175	.247	.277	.524	.102	.287	40	8	.243	44	-20	+1	+0	+1	+9	-0.9
2029	28	MLB 38%	ATL	348	314	56	10	1	7	27	137	4	11	2	.178	.252	.283	.536	.105	.286	39	8	.246	47	-21	+1	-1	+1	+10	-0.9
2030	29	MLB 52%	ATL	361	326	59	11	1	7	28	142	4	11	1	.181	.254	.285	.539	.104	.286	39	8	.246	46	-22	+2	-1	+1	+10	-1.0
2031	30	MLB 63%	ATL	369	334	59	11	1	7	28	146	4	10	1	.177	.249	.278	.527	.102	.284	40	8	.243	44	-23	+2	-2	+1	+10	-1.2
2032	31	MLB 72%	ATL	360	325	57	10	1	7	28	144	4	9	0	.175	.249	.277	.526	.102	.282	40	8	.239	41	-24	+2	-3	+1	+10	-1.4
2033	32	MLB 90%	ATL	345	313	54	10	1	6	26	140	3	7	0	.173	.243	.268	.511	.096	.280	41	8	.235	38	-24	+1	-4	+1	+10	-1.6
2034	33	MLB	ATL	317	287	48	9	1	5	24	131	3	5	0	.167	.239	.258	.497	.091	.279	41	8	.229	34	-24	+1	-4	+1	+9	-1.7
2035	34	MLB	ATL	275	249	40	7	1	4	21	116	3	4	0	.161	.234	.245	.479	.084	.277	42	8	.223	29	-22	+1	-5	+1	+8	-1.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4959	4489	738	136	17	76	373	2100	54	164	31	.164	.237	.253	.490	.089	.282	42	8	.225	30	-391	+20	-20	+18	+141	-23.6
/ 162G	—			650	588	97	18	2	10	49	275	7	21	4	.165	.237	.253	.491	.088	.283	42	8	.225	30	-51	+3	-3	+2	+18	-3.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	GCL Braves	143	120	23	6	0	0	22	37	0	2	1	.192	.317	.242	.559	.050	.274	26	15	.269	64	-6	+0	—	—	+4	-0.2
2021	20	A	Augusta GreenJackets	392	345	59	11	3	4	39	167	5	15	6	.171	.265	.255	.520	.084	.311	43	10	.243	44	-25	+1	—	—	+11	-1.3
2022	21	A	Augusta GreenJackets	468	394	86	18	3	7	64	128	5	18	9	.218	.335	.332	.667	.114	.299	27	14	.306	93	-4	+0	—	—	+13	1.0
2023	22	A+	Rome Braves	241	197	41	8	2	3	37	91	5	6	2	.208	.347	.315	.662	.107	.365	38	15	.309	95	-1	+0	—	—	+7	0.6
2024	23	A+	Rome Emperors	404	350	77	17	2	5	47	131	3	20	2	.220	.318	.323	.640	.103	.330	32	12	.293	83	-8	+3	—	—	+11	0.7
2025	24	AA	Columbus Clingstones	137	123	24	3	0	4	13	48	1	16	2	.195	.277	.317	.594	.122	.282	35	9	.273	67	-5	+2	—	—	+4	0.1
2025	24	A+	Rome Emperors	44	36	7	0	0	1	5	12	2	4	1	.194	.326	.278	.603	.083	.250	27	11	.283	75	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Stephen Paolini (OGILVIE)	25	20	39	61	43	.163/.229/.255	.093	.284	3	6	44%	7%	30	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Will Holland 2023 · AA	25	38→35	44→45	56→60	40	.182/.266/.298	.116	.308	12	23	41%	8%	57	-1.2	.188/.270/.297	.109	.289	10	29	36%	8%	58	-1.2	.175/.260/.280	.105	.257	10	34	34%	8%	47	-0.8
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	36	41→45	55→60	34	.178/.235/.273	.095	.297	9	25	41%	6%	36	-2.7	.215/.292/.332	.117	.329	14	25	36%	9%	76	+0.0	.220/.298/.337	.116	.314	13	41	32%	9%	74	-0.0
✕Corey Ray 2019 · AA	24	39→36	47→50	55	36	.192/.247/.330	.138	.307	14	21	40%	6%	56	-1.3	.192/.246/.327	.135	.321	15	16	42%	6%	54	-1.4	.172/.216/.309	.137	.270	17	12	42%	5%	34	-1.2
✕Jeren Kendall 2021 · A	25	33→26	47→50	54→60	37	.170/.240/.303	.133	.296	16	22	46%	8%	46	-2.0	.166/.243/.293	.127	.323	15	26	49%	8%	46	-2.0	.123/.208/.237	.114	.236	14	36	51%	8%	13	-1.8
✕LeDarious Clark 2019 · A	25	36→33	45	53→55	37	.182/.244/.308	.125	.291	13	20	40%	7%	49	-1.8	.195/.259/.311	.116	.306	13	14	38%	6%	56	-1.3	.149/.196/.259	.110	.216	17	7	39%	3%	17	-0.8
✕Julian Escobedo 2023 · AA	25	38→36	41→40	48→50	40	.191/.255/.290	.099	.266	9	14	31%	6%	49	-1.8	.203/.269/.317	.114	.286	10	15	31%	6%	62	-0.9	.179/.252/.313	.134	.265	12	20	35%	6%	50	-0.4
✕Max George 2021 · A	25	38→37	42→45	54→55	42	.186/.272/.288	.102	.271	9	21	33%	8%	57	-1.2	.192/.280/.320	.128	.332	14	15	43%	8%	69	-0.4	.147/.256/.292	.145	.254	19	20	46%	10%	50	-0.7
✕Dave Krynzel 2007 · MLB	25	41→46	42→45	56→55	39	.201/.257/.307	.106	.294	9	23	34%	6%	53	-1.5	.209/.262/.317	.108	.302	11	20	33%	6%	58	-1.2	.219/.264/.310	.092	.319	9	20	33%	5%	53	-1.1
✕Justin Lavey 2023 · A	25	39	40	57→55	34	.183/.234/.273	.090	.319	8	17	43%	6%	35	-2.8	.196/.244/.284	.088	.324	7	16	39%	6%	42	-2.3	.187/.217/.248	.061	.297	5	20	38%	3%	15	-0.7
✕Taylor Lewis 2014 · A	24	38	39→45	60→55	35	.184/.231/.279	.094	.282	5	18	35%	5%	34	-2.8	.201/.243/.292	.091	.293	6	17	32%	5%	43	-2.2	.215/.238/.292	.078	.283	5	26	26%	2%	37	-0.7
✕Jared Mitchell 2014 · AAA	25	36→44	43→50	54→55	37	.170/.245/.283	.113	.311	10	16	45%	8%	43	-2.2	.195/.269/.314	.119	.326	13	17	41%	8%	62	-0.9	.192/.267/.312	.120	.313	14	17	40%	8%	57	-0.9
✕Jackson Cluff 2022 · AA	25	39→29	40→45	50→55	38	.192/.256/.284	.092	.277	8	12	32%	5%	48	-1.9	.179/.255/.283	.104	.283	9	15	37%	8%	47	-1.9	.181/.273/.314	.132	.266	14	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6
✕Connor Kopach 2021 · AAA	26	39→33	44→45	54→55	37	.193/.254/.311	.118	.297	12	18	37%	6%	54	-1.4	.184/.251/.289	.105	.364	11	16	48%	7%	47	-1.9	.105/.185/.185	.080	.240	12	21	58%	8%	-9	-1.7
✕Ashton Creal 2023 · A	24	39	41→40	54→55	39	.186/.263/.286	.100	.298	8	21	38%	7%	52	-1.6	.189/.265/.279	.090	.337	8	16	43%	7%	51	-1.7	.129/.221/.176	.047	.295	7	12	53%	7%	4	-1.1
✕Jawuan Harris 2021 · A	24	37→29	40	54→55	42	.174/.266/.267	.093	.296	7	18	40%	9%	49	-1.8	.176/.259/.258	.082	.367	6	21	48%	9%	43	-2.2	.094/.199/.138	.045	.243	2	38	56%	10%	-13	-1.7
✕Jacob Hannemann 2016 · AA	25	43	40→45	57→60	38	.207/.252/.303	.096	.289	7	19	30%	5%	50	-1.8	.204/.255/.315	.111	.274	9	25	28%	5%	55	-1.4	.194/.246/.302	.108	.253	10	31	27%	5%	44	-1.4
✕Cam Gibson 2019 · AA	25	40→41	43→45	53→55	44	.197/.262/.307	.110	.269	10	17	30%	7%	56	-1.3	.203/.267/.307	.104	.282	9	19	29%	7%	58	-1.2	.189/.253/.289	.100	.259	8	25	29%	7%	44	-1.6
✕Seth Gray 2023 · AA	25	38	44→45	47→50	38	.186/.263/.294	.108	.300	13	8	40%	7%	54	-1.4	.205/.282/.312	.107	.343	12	13	40%	8%	66	-0.6	.202/.287/.300	.098	.353	11	19	41%	9%	62	-0.5
✕Tanner English 2018 · AAA	25	38→45	41→45	60→55	39	.179/.255/.280	.101	.298	8	27	40%	8%	46	-2.0	.173/.230/.274	.101	.298	8	20	42%	6%	33	-2.9	.156/.201/.253	.097	.259	7	19	41%	4%	12	-1.8
✕Kevin Merrell 2022 · AAA	26	39→37	39→40	55	38	.191/.239/.275	.083	.270	6	17	31%	5%	37	-2.7	.225/.279/.359	.134	.278	17	11	25%	6%	77	+0.1	.233/.280/.381	.148	.251	24	6	19%	6%	82	+0.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)