Jake Gatewood

1B Somerset Patriots

Age 31 R/R 6'5" / 190 lbs AA HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2022	26	AAALAA	428	.211/.263/.439	22	2	37	—	.162/.201/.318
2023	27	INTLYaquis de Obr…	181	.208/.288/.409	9	3	92	—
2025	29	AAA/AA2 orgs	270	.206/.294/.374	7	5	32	—	.153/.223/.262
2027PROJMLE	31	MLBNYY	3	.189/.256/.299	0	0	55	-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB	32	MLBNYY	36	.186/.252/.291	1	0	52	-0.3

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 AAA

Max EV89

Chase%53

Speed47

BB%43

Z-Con%12

K%10

CompsLuis Bustillos (age 31) · Webster Rivas (age 31) · Eric Stamets (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.189 / .256 / .299

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%7

BABIP255

ISO121

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 39

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER39

scouting grade only

EYE44

scouting grade only

SPEED48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	18	ROK	AZL Brewers	—	222	204	42	6	0	3	13	71	0	7	8	206	253	279	533	74	291	32	6	238	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	193	177	37	5	1	4	14	65	2	5	0	209	275	316	591	107	306	34	7	270	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK	Helena Brewers	—	238	212	58	23	1	6	18	68	2	3	5	274	336	476	813	203	366	29	8	349	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	524	496	119	33	0	14	18	141	3	3	2	240	271	391	662	151	303	27	3	289	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	100	92	22	4	2	4	8	29	0	3	0	239	300	457	757	217	305	29	8	331	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+	Carolina Mudcats	—	470	420	113	36	1	11	43	132	4	7	5	269	343	438	781	169	364	28	9	346	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	49	42	4	1	0	0	6	18	0	2	1	95	208	119	327	24	160	37	12	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	388	352	86	19	1	19	28	114	3	2	0	244	305	466	771	222	299	29	7	335	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	385	353	66	10	1	13	26	140	2	3	0	187	247	331	578	144	260	36	7	257	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	47	42	6	1	0	0	4	15	1	0	1	143	234	167	401	24	222	32	9	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	487	450	102	22	2	28	29	170	6	6	2	227	282	471	754	244	291	35	6	328	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	428	394	83	18	3	22	23	140	5	2	3	211	263	439	702	228	258	33	5	303	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	181	159	33	5	0	9	17	62	1	3	2	208	288	409	697	201	264	34	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	125	109	19	4	0	5	12	43	3	3	2	174	274	349	623	174	230	34	10	281	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	145	129	30	13	1	2	14	46	1	2	1	233	310	395	706	163	346	32	10	315	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	18	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	—	222	209	29	4	0	2	8	102	0	7	8	139	171	187	357	48	231	46	4	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	193	181	27	3	1	2	10	89	2	5	0	149	202	210	412	61	276	46	5	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK MLE	Helena Brewers	—	238	219	41	15	1	4	11	98	2	3	5	187	233	320	552	132	290	41	5	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	524	502	91	25	0	9	12	188	3	3	2	181	205	285	490	104	257	36	2	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	100	94	18	4	2	2	6	37	0	3	0	191	240	340	580	149	284	37	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	470	436	87	25	1	9	27	189	4	7	5	200	253	323	576	124	315	40	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	388	361	72	17	1	13	19	149	3	2	0	199	245	360	606	161	284	38	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	385	361	51	7	1	9	18	175	2	3	0	141	186	241	427	100	225	45	5	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	487	461	79	17	1	20	18	207	6	6	2	171	212	343	555	171	249	43	4	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	428	402	65	14	2	15	15	170	5	2	3	162	201	318	520	157	222	40	4	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	125	114	14	3	0	3	8	53	3	3	2	123	202	228	430	105	189	42	6	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	145	134	24	10	1	1	10	58	1	2	1	179	241	291	532	112	301	40	7	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	—	222	209	29	4	0	2	8	102	0	7	8	139	171	187	357	48	248	46	4	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers	—	222	204	42	6	0	3	13	71	0	7	8	206	253	279	533	74	291	32	6	238	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	431	400	67	18	1	6	21	187	4	8	5	168	216	263	479	95	289	43	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	431	389	95	28	2	10	32	133	4	8	5	244	308	404	712	159	340	31	7	313	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	524	502	91	25	0	9	12	188	3	3	2	181	205	285	490	104	264	36	2	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	524	496	119	33	0	14	18	141	3	3	2	240	271	391	662	151	303	27	3	289	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	619	576	112	30	3	12	35	246	4	12	6	194	246	319	565	125	311	40	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	619	554	139	41	3	15	57	179	4	12	6	251	325	417	742	166	341	29	9	329	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	388	361	72	17	1	13	19	149	3	2	0	199	245	360	606	161	289	38	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	—	388	352	86	19	1	19	28	114	3	2	0	244	305	466	771	222	299	29	7	335	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	432	405	57	8	1	10	20	197	3	3	1	141	187	240	426	99	233	46	5	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	432	395	72	11	1	13	30	155	3	3	1	182	245	314	559	132	255	36	7	251	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	487	461	79	17	1	20	18	207	6	6	2	171	212	343	555	171	250	43	4	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	—	487	450	102	22	2	28	29	170	6	6	2	227	282	471	754	244	291	35	6	328	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	428	402	65	14	2	15	15	170	5	2	3	162	201	318	520	157	226	40	4	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	—	428	394	83	18	3	22	23	140	5	2	3	211	263	439	702	228	258	33	5	303	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL MLE	Yaquis de Obregon	—	181	159	33	5	0	9	17	62	1	3	2	208	288	409	697	201	264	34	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	27	INTL RAW	Yaquis de Obregon	—	181	159	33	5	0	9	17	62	1	3	2	208	288	409	697	201	264	34	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AA MLE	2 teams	—	270	248	38	13	1	4	17	111	4	5	3	153	219	262	481	109	256	41	6	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AA RAW	2 teams	—	270	238	49	17	1	7	26	89	4	5	3	206	294	374	668	168	296	33	10	299	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	18	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	—	222	212	29	4	0	2	8	102	0	7	8	137	171	184	354	47	231	46	4	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	431	403	67	18	1	6	21	187	4	8	5	166	216	261	477	94	284	43	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	20	A MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	524	504	91	25	0	9	12	188	3	3	2	181	205	284	489	103	257	36	2	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	619	575	112	30	3	12	35	246	4	12	6	195	246	320	566	125	310	40	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	22	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	388	363	72	17	1	13	19	149	3	2	0	198	245	358	604	160	284	38	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	432	406	57	8	1	10	20	197	3	3	1	140	187	239	426	99	225	46	5	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	487	460	79	17	1	20	18	207	6	6	2	172	212	343	556	172	249	43	4	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	428	405	65	14	2	15	15	170	5	2	3	160	201	316	517	156	222	40	4	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	29	AA MLE	2 teams	—	270	247	38	13	1	4	17	111	4	5	3	154	219	263	482	109	249	41	6	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	29	AA MLE	2 teams	—	270	247	38	13	1	4	17	111	4	5	3	154	219	263	482	109	249	41	6	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	31	MLB MLE	NYY	2%	320	291	54	11	1	6	22	95	4	6	2	188	255	295	550	106	255	30	7	250	55	-17	+0	+0	-6	+7	-0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	31	MLB CTX	NYY	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	189	256	299	555	110	255	33	0	252	55	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	NYY	23%	159	145	27	5	1	3	11	47	2	2	1	185	252	287	539	102	252	30	7	245	52	-9	+0	-4	-3	+3	-1.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	NYY	23%	36	34	6	1	0	1	2	11	0	0	0	186	252	291	544	105	252	31	6	247	52	-2	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	36	34	6	1	0	1	2	11	0	0	0	176	222	294	516	118	227	31	6	247	32	-2	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	614	108	18	0	18	36	199	0	0	0	176	222	293	515	117	227	31	6	247	32	-37	+0	-14	-12	+14	-5.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4296	4009	698	162	12	106	204	1712	37	56	34	174	221	300	521	126	266	40	5	215	32	-17	+0	-4	-6	+7	-2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	607	106	25	2	16	31	259	6	8	5	175	222	301	524	127	266	40	5	215	32	-36	+0	-7	-12	+14	-4.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 145 PAwOBA .307 → .235 (−72)K% 31.7% → 39.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.72%	÷0.970	×1.220	—	—	39.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.66%	÷0.977	×0.700	—	×0.948	6.56%
HBP% /PA	0.69%	—	×0.850	—	×0.948	0.56%
Singles /BIP	16.87%	÷0.969	×0.970	×0.973	×0.948	15.57%
Doubles /BIP	15.66%	÷0.953	×0.860	×0.973	×0.948	13.03%
Triples /BIP	1.20%	÷1.056	×0.950	×0.973	×0.948	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.41%	÷1.030	×0.780	—	×0.948	1.73%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 94, 2B 91, 3B 111, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .307 → .235; ISO .163 → .120; BABIP .346 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 125 PAwOBA .274 → .192 (−82)K% 34.4% → 42.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.40%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	42.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.60%	÷1.078	×0.690	—	×0.972	5.97%
HBP% /PA	2.40%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	2.19%
Singles /BIP	15.15%	÷1.008	×0.930	×0.981	×0.972	13.32%
Doubles /BIP	6.06%	÷1.020	×0.830	×0.981	×0.972	4.70%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.944	×0.970	×0.981	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.58%	÷1.070	×0.700	—	×0.972	4.82%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 89, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .274 → .192; ISO .174 → .109; BABIP .230 → .189. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 428 PAwOBA .297 → .223 (−73)K% 32.7% → 39.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.71%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	39.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.37%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×1.003	3.60%
HBP% /PA	1.17%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.10%
Singles /BIP	15.75%	÷0.993	×0.930	×0.963	×1.003	14.25%
Doubles /BIP	7.09%	÷0.956	×0.830	×0.963	×1.003	5.94%
Triples /BIP	1.18%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.963	×1.003	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	8.66%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×1.003	6.22%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .297 → .223; ISO .228 → .160; BABIP .258 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASalt Lake Bees · 487 PAwOBA .319 → .240 (−79)K% 34.9% → 42.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	34.91%	÷0.982	×1.200	—	—	42.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.75%	÷1.090	×0.690	—	×1.018	3.71%
HBP% /PA	1.23%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.18%
Singles /BIP	17.86%	÷1.032	×0.930	×0.982	×1.018	16.09%
Doubles /BIP	7.86%	÷1.002	×0.830	×0.982	×1.018	6.51%
Triples /BIP	0.71%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.982	×1.018	0.57%
Home runs /BIP	10.00%	÷0.907	×0.700	—	×1.018	7.86%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 96, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .319 → .240; ISO .244 → .177; BABIP .291 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AABiloxi Shuckers · 385 PAwOBA .253 → .188 (−65)K% 36.4% → 45.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.36%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	45.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.75%	÷1.006	×0.680	—	×1.012	4.62%
HBP% /PA	0.52%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	0.44%
Singles /BIP	19.72%	÷0.984	×0.920	×0.950	×1.012	17.72%
Doubles /BIP	4.69%	÷1.092	×0.910	×0.950	×1.012	3.76%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷1.124	×0.880	×0.950	×1.012	0.35%
Home runs /BIP	6.10%	÷1.018	×0.800	—	×1.012	4.86%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 118, 3B 125, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .253 → .188; ISO .144 → .103; BABIP .260 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABiloxi Shuckers · 388 PAwOBA .327 → .264 (−63)K% 29.4% → 38.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.38%	÷0.933	×1.220	—	—	38.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.70%	÷0.964	×0.680	—	×1.027	4.85%
HBP% /PA	0.77%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.67%
Singles /BIP	19.75%	÷0.967	×0.920	×0.981	×1.027	18.91%
Doubles /BIP	7.98%	÷0.918	×0.910	×0.981	×1.027	7.97%
Triples /BIP	0.42%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.981	×1.027	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	7.98%	÷1.078	×0.800	—	×1.027	6.09%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 93, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 87, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .327 → .264; ISO .222 → .167; BABIP .299 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Carolina Mudcats · 470 PAwOBA .337 → .250 (−87)K% 28.1% → 40.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.09%	÷0.990	×1.420	—	—	40.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.72%	÷0.973	×0.630	—	×1.012	5.71%
HBP% /PA	0.85%	—	×0.860	—	×1.012	0.74%
Singles /BIP	22.57%	÷1.004	×0.940	×0.964	×1.012	20.62%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.034	×0.830	×0.964	×1.012	9.79%
Triples /BIP	0.35%	÷0.944	×0.800	×0.964	×1.012	0.29%
Home runs /BIP	3.82%	÷0.959	×0.900	—	×1.012	3.63%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 101, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .337 → .250; ISO .169 → .127; BABIP .364 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABiloxi Shuckers · 100 PAwOBA .322 → .246 (−76)K% 29.0% → 36.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.00%	÷0.959	×1.220	—	—	36.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.00%	÷1.035	×0.680	—	×1.042	5.48%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.05%	÷0.986	×0.920	×0.975	×1.042	18.05%
Doubles /BIP	6.35%	÷0.946	×0.910	×0.975	×1.042	6.21%
Triples /BIP	3.17%	÷0.915	×0.880	×0.975	×1.042	3.10%
Home runs /BIP	6.35%	÷1.393	×0.800	—	×1.042	3.80%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 179, 1B 97, 2B 89, 3B 83, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .322 → .246; ISO .217 → .149; BABIP .305 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Gatewood (OGILVIE)	31	20	39	48	44	187/253/292	106	255	3	3	30%	7%	55	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Bustillos 2009 · AAA	31	44	40	43→40	39	217/255/311	94	285	8	7	26%	4%	58	-1.7	222/270/308	86	295	7	9	26%	5%	63	-1.3	217/261/254	37	296	0	5	25%	4%	46	-0.8
✕Webster Rivas 2022 · MLB	31	44	44→40	47→40	47	219/282/328	109	274	12	4	24%	8%	74	-0.6	219/296/313	94	291	7	6	25%	10%	75	-0.5	206/296/269	64	282	2	2	25%	11%	63	-0.7
✕Eric Stamets 2022 · MLB	30	36→46	43→45	54→50	42	184/248/291	107	248	10	13	30%	7%	53	-2.1	187/258/298	111	269	11	13	33%	7%	58	-1.7	137/213/223	85	203	9	16	36%	6%	23	-1.6
✕Jack López 2024 · MLB	31	41→45	44→45	53→55	35	204/245/325	121	287	11	16	33%	4%	58	-1.7	210/251/314	104	298	11	15	32%	4%	57	-1.8	203/242/290	87	289	10	16	32%	4%	47	-1.9
✕Joe Hudson 2022 · MLB	31	36	43→45	47→40	40	185/239/286	102	263	11	5	34%	6%	47	-2.5	193/275/323	130	279	16	8	35%	9%	71	-0.8	168/269/293	125	244	17	8	36%	10%	60	-0.5
✕David Matranga 2008 · AAA	31	39	46→45	51→50	43	203/270/324	121	261	14	13	28%	7%	69	-0.9	213/288/335	122	287	13	9	29%	8%	78	-0.3	202/285/316	114	275	11	5	29%	8%	71	-0.3
✕Dusty Coleman 2018 · MLB	31	37→42	48→50	52→50	35	191/243/332	141	291	15	14	39%	5%	60	-1.6	172/225/300	128	335	15	12	50%	6%	46	-2.6	111/162/213	102	245	13	11	58%	5%	0	-3.3
✕Deven Marrero 2022 · MLB	31	40→50	45	48→50	41	201/260/316	115	284	13	8	33%	7%	62	-1.4	214/276/322	108	290	11	12	28%	8%	70	-0.9	194/257/262	68	256	7	15	26%	8%	45	-0.8
✕Yamid Haad 2009 · AAA	31	41	40→45	48→40	41	203/250/291	88	259	9	7	25%	5%	52	-2.2	219/259/317	98	278	9	5	24%	5%	61	-1.5	221/258/313	92	276	8	2	23%	5%	58	-0.8
✕Dane Sardinha 2009 · MLB	30	34→31	43→45	49→30	37	180/220/280	100	240	11	4	30%	4%	38	-3.2	179/227/282	103	251	11	4	33%	5%	42	-2.9	151/207/234	83	215	10	0	34%	5%	23	-1.4
✕Alex Prieto 2007 · MLB	31	43	40	44→45	45	210/261/299	89	263	8	8	23%	6%	58	-1.7	217/271/325	108	267	9	9	21%	7%	68	-1.0	211/263/319	108	252	7	5	19%	6%	59	-0.6
✕Ali Solis 2019 · AAA	31	40	42→45	47→30	34	198/234/297	99	287	10	7	34%	4%	48	-2.5	206/245/341	135	278	17	7	32%	5%	62	-1.4	185/220/320	135	238	18	3	31%	4%	45	-1.6
✕Pete Kozma 2019 · MLB	31	39→47	38→45	48→50	41	187/231/267	80	236	5	10	23%	5%	39	-3.1	204/255/309	105	247	9	7	21%	6%	59	-1.7	194/245/285	91	239	7	5	21%	5%	47	-1.7
✕Josh Prince 2018 · AA	30	44→46	43→40	50→60	44	218/277/328	110	285	10	15	27%	7%	71	-0.8	227/291/335	108	315	10	14	29%	8%	78	-0.3	224/295/317	93	312	8	15	29%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Mike Nickeas 2014 · MLB	31	40	39→40	44→40	45	193/250/279	85	239	6	4	22%	6%	50	-2.3	205/263/303	98	256	10	7	23%	7%	60	-1.6	181/234/238	57	220	9	3	22%	6%	34	-1.0
✕Brian Navarreto 2024 · AAA	29	42	45	49→30	43	213/264/330	117	266	13	4	25%	6%	67	-1.1	201/250/309	108	263	11	6	27%	5%	57	-1.8	173/222/268	95	227	9	4	28%	4%	36	-0.9
✕Sharlon Schoop 2018 · AAA	31	42→45	44→40	44→45	42	209/255/321	112	259	11	4	24%	5%	61	-1.5	218/279/340	122	286	13	7	27%	6%	75	-0.5	190/260/269	79	260	8	0	29%	7%	49	-0.5
✕Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez 2015 · AAA	30	42	39→40	43→50	39	205/255/290	85	281	6	9	28%	5%	54	-2.0	217/278/328	111	275	10	10	24%	7%	72	-0.7	205/258/292	87	257	7	6	22%	6%	51	-0.7
✕Caleb Hamilton 2024 · MLB	29	34	47→45	47→45	45	177/262/304	127	265	15	5	37%	10%	61	-1.5	186/260/304	118	295	14	10	39%	8%	60	-1.6	90/179/164	73	135	13	10	44%	9%	-2	-1.4
✕Barry Wesson 2007 · AAA	30	45→44	43→45	49→55	38	222/256/329	107	282	11	9	26%	4%	63	-1.4	216/271/312	96	293	9	15	28%	7%	65	-1.2	197/254/259	62	271	5	18	28%	7%	45	-1.1