Jhon Diaz
CF Bowling Green Hot Rods| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+/A/INTL2 orgs | 598 | .224/.288/.369 | 20 | 33 | 52 | — | .160/.213/.280 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+TB | 369 | .187/.262/.328 | 10 | 13 | 26 | — | .151/.202/.267 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/A+TB | 336 | .189/.264/.331 | 9 | 10 | 26 | — | .153/.204/.262 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBTB | 1 | .177/.227/.292 | 0 | 0 | 43 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBTB | 72 | .181/.232/.299 | 2 | 2 | 47 | -0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | — | 191 | 159 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 58 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 176 | 303 | 252 | 555 | 75 | 262 | 30 | 15 | 262 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 165 | 151 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 52 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 225 | 287 | 364 | 651 | 139 | 327 | 32 | 7 | 289 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 392 | 340 | 80 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 42 | 102 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 235 | 325 | 379 | 704 | 144 | 314 | 26 | 11 | 312 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 163 | 146 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 50 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 185 | 270 | 267 | 537 | 82 | 258 | 31 | 9 | 251 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 269 | 242 | 53 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 60 | 2 | 23 | 7 | 219 | 287 | 401 | 688 | 182 | 240 | 22 | 8 | 301 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 166 | 156 | 42 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 269 | 309 | 417 | 726 | 147 | 300 | 19 | 4 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 369 | 332 | 62 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 89 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 187 | 262 | 328 | 591 | 142 | 220 | 24 | 8 | 265 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 160 | 143 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 50 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 168 | 252 | 315 | 566 | 147 | 225 | 31 | 9 | 256 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 176 | 159 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 44 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 208 | 276 | 346 | 622 | 138 | 255 | 25 | 9 | 278 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays 1 | — | 191 | 169 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 72 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 112 | 202 | 160 | 362 | 47 | 172 | 38 | 10 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 165 | 155 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 75 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 142 | 189 | 219 | 408 | 77 | 263 | 45 | 5 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 392 | 354 | 66 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 141 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 186 | 252 | 299 | 551 | 113 | 277 | 36 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 163 | 152 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 68 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 138 | 196 | 197 | 394 | 59 | 224 | 42 | 6 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 269 | 249 | 43 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 83 | 2 | 23 | 7 | 173 | 223 | 329 | 552 | 157 | 200 | 31 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 369 | 344 | 52 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 114 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 151 | 202 | 267 | 470 | 116 | 190 | 31 | 5 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 160 | 148 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 61 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 142 | 201 | 257 | 458 | 115 | 212 | 38 | 6 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 176 | 165 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 164 | 207 | 267 | 474 | 103 | 222 | 33 | 5 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays 1 | — | 191 | 169 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 72 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 112 | 202 | 160 | 362 | 47 | 182 | 38 | 10 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Rays 1 | — | 191 | 159 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 58 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 176 | 303 | 252 | 555 | 75 | 262 | 30 | 15 | 262 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 165 | 155 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 75 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 142 | 189 | 219 | 408 | 77 | 263 | 45 | 5 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Rays | — | 165 | 151 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 52 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 225 | 287 | 364 | 651 | 139 | 327 | 32 | 7 | 289 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 392 | 354 | 66 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 141 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 186 | 252 | 299 | 551 | 113 | 291 | 36 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 392 | 340 | 80 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 42 | 102 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 235 | 325 | 379 | 704 | 144 | 314 | 26 | 11 | 312 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 598 | 555 | 87 | 8 | 3 | 17 | 32 | 209 | 6 | 33 | 12 | 157 | 211 | 274 | 485 | 117 | 210 | 35 | 5 | 215 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 598 | 544 | 122 | 13 | 3 | 20 | 43 | 141 | 6 | 33 | 12 | 224 | 288 | 369 | 658 | 145 | 263 | 24 | 7 | 293 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 369 | 344 | 52 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 114 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 151 | 202 | 267 | 470 | 116 | 192 | 31 | 5 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 369 | 332 | 62 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 89 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 187 | 262 | 328 | 591 | 142 | 220 | 24 | 8 | 265 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 336 | 313 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 119 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 157 | 207 | 268 | 476 | 112 | 225 | 35 | 6 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 336 | 302 | 57 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 94 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 189 | 264 | 331 | 595 | 142 | 241 | 28 | 9 | 267 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Rays 1 | — | 191 | 170 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 72 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 112 | 202 | 159 | 361 | 47 | 172 | 38 | 10 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 165 | 155 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 75 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 142 | 189 | 219 | 408 | 77 | 263 | 45 | 5 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 392 | 358 | 66 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 141 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 184 | 252 | 296 | 548 | 112 | 277 | 36 | 7 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 598 | 555 | 87 | 8 | 3 | 17 | 32 | 209 | 6 | 33 | 12 | 157 | 211 | 274 | 485 | 117 | 209 | 35 | 5 | 215 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 369 | 344 | 52 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 114 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 151 | 202 | 267 | 470 | 116 | 190 | 31 | 5 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 336 | 313 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 119 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 157 | 207 | 268 | 476 | 112 | 217 | 35 | 6 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 598 | 555 | 87 | 8 | 3 | 17 | 32 | 209 | 6 | 33 | 12 | 157 | 211 | 274 | 485 | 117 | 209 | 35 | 5 | 215 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 369 | 344 | 52 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 114 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 151 | 202 | 267 | 470 | 116 | 190 | 31 | 5 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 336 | 313 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 119 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 157 | 207 | 268 | 476 | 112 | 217 | 35 | 6 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | TB | 0% | 380 | 354 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 128 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 175 | 225 | 292 | 518 | 117 | 243 | 34 | 6 | 232 | 43 | -26 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | TB | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 227 | 292 | 518 | 115 | 246 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 43 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | TB | 30% | 236 | 219 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 78 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 179 | 231 | 300 | 531 | 121 | 246 | 33 | 6 | 238 | 47 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | TB | 30% | 72 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 181 | 232 | 299 | 532 | 119 | 249 | 33 | 6 | 238 | 47 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 72 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 176 | 222 | 294 | 516 | 118 | 238 | 33 | 6 | 238 | 31 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 614 | 108 | 18 | 0 | 18 | 36 | 217 | 0 | 18 | 9 | 176 | 222 | 293 | 515 | 117 | 237 | 33 | 6 | 238 | 31 | -41 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2492 | 2300 | 368 | 62 | 19 | 50 | 150 | 877 | 16 | 94 | 41 | 160 | 217 | 269 | 485 | 109 | 229 | 35 | 6 | 215 | 31 | -29 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 96 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 39 | 229 | 4 | 25 | 11 | 160 | 216 | 268 | 485 | 108 | 229 | 35 | 6 | 215 | 31 | -42 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 176 PAwOBA .270 → .210 (−60)K% 25.0% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 5.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 16.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 4.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 3.78% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .270 → .210; ISO .138 → .112; BABIP .255 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 160 PAwOBA .249 → .203 (−46)K% 31.2% → 38.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.25% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 6.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.027 | ×1.012 | 13.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.027 | ×1.012 | 5.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×1.027 | ×1.012 | 1.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.48% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .249 → .203; ISO .147 → .120; BABIP .225 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 369 PAwOBA .261 → .207 (−53)K% 24.1% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.12% | ÷1.023 | ×1.310 | — | — | 30.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.40% | ÷0.965 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 5.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.05% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 14.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.066 | ×0.780 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 2.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.65% | ÷0.996 | ×0.850 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 1.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.12% | ÷0.930 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.88% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 113, 3B 99, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .261 → .207; ISO .142 → .122; BABIP .220 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 269 PAwOBA .298 → .237 (−61)K% 22.3% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.30% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.81% | ÷1.047 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.13% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | — | 15.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.017 | ×0.830 | ×0.984 | — | 3.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.10% | ÷1.099 | ×0.910 | ×0.984 | — | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.04% | ÷0.824 | ×0.800 | — | — | 5.87% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 114, 2B 103, 3B 120, K 97, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .298 → .237; ISO .182 → .159; BABIP .240 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 163 PAwOBA .245 → .178 (−68)K% 30.7% → 42.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.67% | ÷0.956 | ×1.310 | — | — | 42.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.20% | ÷0.972 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 5.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.92% | ÷1.047 | ×0.870 | ×1.040 | ×1.012 | 20.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.04% | ÷0.898 | ×0.780 | ×1.040 | ×1.012 | 0.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.040 | ×1.012 | 0.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.015 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.74% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 109, 2B 80, 3B 130, K 91, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .245 → .178; ISO .082 → .062; BABIP .258 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ACharleston RiverDogs · 392 PAwOBA .308 → .239 (−68)K% 26.0% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.02% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷1.035 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.59% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×1.015 | 18.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.98% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×1.015 | 7.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.52% | ÷0.938 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×1.015 | 2.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.52% | ÷1.075 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.90% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 114, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .308 → .239; ISO .144 → .115; BABIP .314 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Rays · 165 PAwOBA .283 → .189 (−95)K% 31.5% → 45.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.52% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 45.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.27% | ÷0.956 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 4.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.21% | ÷1.023 | ×0.820 | ×1.037 | ×0.995 | 17.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.07% | ÷0.933 | ×0.720 | ×1.037 | ×0.995 | 5.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.04% | ÷1.005 | ×0.720 | ×1.037 | ×0.995 | 2.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.02% | ÷0.902 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.74% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 105, 2B 87, 3B 101, K 101, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .283 → .189; ISO .139 → .091; BABIP .327 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Rays 1 · 191 PAwOBA .261 → .167 (−93)K% 30.4% → 37.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.37% | ÷0.979 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.18% | ÷1.067 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 9.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.80% | ÷1.008 | ×0.680 | ×1.019 | ×0.995 | 13.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.95% | ÷1.114 | ×0.600 | ×1.019 | ×0.995 | 2.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.98% | ÷0.907 | ×0.600 | ×1.019 | ×0.995 | 1.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.99% | ÷0.907 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.51% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 123, 3B 82, K 96, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .261 → .167; ISO .075 → .043; BABIP .262 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .