Brody Hopkins

P Durham Bulls

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

AAARP40M40-MANROOKIEFG #46

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	25	25	115	3.05	2.51	27.2%	10.8%	—	K 20.4% · BB 12.7% · FIP 3.45
2025	23	AATB	25	25	116	2.72	3.01	28.7%	12.2%	—	K 23.2% · BB 13.4% · FIP 3.86
2026	24	MIX2 levels	37	19	99	5.16	4.25	27.9%	21.2%	0.8	K 24.0% · BB 18.9% · FIP 4.16
2027PROJ	25	MLBTB	19	19	114	4.55	4.55	26.0%	16.7%	0.5
2028PROJ59% MLB	26	MLBTB	14	14	85	4.50	4.48	25.9%	15.8%	0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	27	MLBTB	18	18	106	4.50	4.50	25.6%	15.3%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff61Control45Command45FB velo66

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 85%

CompsJake Lee (age 24) · Luis Quiñones (age 25) · Lisalverto Bonilla (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%26.0%

BB%16.7%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP114

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF6060

CTRL4045

CMD3545

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	115	489	133	53	3	100%	4.6	20.4%	12.7%	7.7%	0.8%	3.05	3.45	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	115	489	133	53	3	100%	4.6	20.4%	12.7%	7.7%	0.8%	3.05	3.45	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	115	489	133	53	3	100%	4.6	27.2%	10.8%	16.4%	0.6%	3.05	2.51	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	116	492	141	60	7	100%	4.6	23.2%	13.4%	9.8%	1.9%	2.72	3.86	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	116	492	141	60	7	100%	4.6	23.2%	13.4%	9.8%	1.9%	2.72	3.86	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	25	25	116	492	141	60	7	100%	4.6	28.7%	12.2%	16.5%	1.4%	2.72	3.01	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	19	99	462	129	98	6	51%	2.7	24.0%	18.9%	5.1%	1.3%	5.16	4.16	+0.9
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	19	99	462	129	98	6	51%	2.7	24.0%	18.9%	5.1%	1.3%	5.16	4.16	+0.9
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	19	99	462	129	98	6	51%	2.7	27.9%	21.2%	6.7%	1.3%	5.16	4.25	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	5	24	7	6	1	0%	0.9	29.2%	25.0%	4.2%	4.2%	5.06	6.29	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TB	19	19	114	481	125	81	10	100%	6.0	26.0%	16.7%	9.3%	2.1%	4.55	4.55	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	24	24	143	604	157	95	13	100%	6.0	25.9%	15.8%	10.2%	2.2%	4.50	4.48	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	24	24	145	612	157	93	14	100%	6.0	25.6%	15.3%	10.4%	2.3%	4.50	4.50	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	24	24	145	612	155	92	15	100%	6.0	25.3%	15.0%	10.3%	2.4%	4.54	4.58	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	23	23	138	584	146	88	15	100%	6.0	25.0%	15.1%	9.9%	2.6%	4.63	4.70	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	22	22	130	549	135	84	15	100%	5.9	24.6%	15.4%	9.3%	2.8%	4.78	4.88	+0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	85	359	93	57	8	100%	6.1	25.9%	15.8%	10.2%	2.2%	4.50	4.48	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	106	448	115	68	10	100%	5.9	25.6%	15.3%	10.4%	2.3%	4.50	4.50	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	118	498	126	75	12	100%	5.9	25.3%	15.0%	10.3%	2.4%	4.54	4.58	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	119	502	126	76	13	100%	6.0	25.0%	15.1%	9.9%	2.6%	4.63	4.70	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	19	19	115	486	120	75	14	100%	6.1	24.6%	15.4%	9.3%	2.8%	4.78	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		96	90	547	2313	585	356	58	94%	5.7	25.3%	15.4%	9.9%	2.5%	4.60	4.28	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	845	214	130	21	94%	5.7	25.3%	15.4%	9.9%	2.5%	4.60	4.28	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		87	69	330	1443	324	215	19	79%	3.8	22.5%	14.9%	7.6%	1.3%	3.57	3.82	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	42	200	874	196	130	12	79%	3.8	22.5%	14.9%	7.6%	1.3%	3.57	3.82	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brody Hopkins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	26.0%	16.7%	2.1%	—	4.52	25.6%	10.3%	433	-0.03	—	—	—
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	76
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	75
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	74
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	72
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	71
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	71
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	70
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	69
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	68
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	68
José De León R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	24	SP	3.52	23.0%	14.6%	0.9%	.364	3.24	28.9%	16.1%	51	-0.28	3.24	445	67
Ryan Harvey R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	18.4%	15.9%	0.9%	.291	4.74	16.2%	7.8%	56	+0.66	4.08	133	66
Grant Kipp R 2024 · 4.75 FIP	24	SP-	4.75	18.9%	14.1%	2.7%	.263	4.55	20.9%	9.0%	201	-0.20	4.32	355	65
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	65
DJ Myers R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	22.9%	12.4%	2.4%	.375	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	257	65
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	65
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	65
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	65
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	65
Burch Smith R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	23	SP-	5.18	27.5%	12.0%	5.3%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	418	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	137	25.4%	15.6%	0.93	4.58
Tommy Byrne ('43-'57, 6 WAR*)	6.8	124	23.8%*	13.6%*	0.98*	4.39*
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Ferdie Schupp ('13-'22, 4 WAR*)	5.3	132	27.9%*	13.2%*	1.25*	4.83*
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44