Connor Rasmussen

SS Columbia Fireflies

Age 23 L/R 5'11" / 195 lbs A HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#488ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	AKC	41	.171/.293/.229	0	0	18	—	.135/.220/.189
2026	22	A+/AKC	333	.266/.394/.399	5	14	84	—	.229/.327/.337
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBKC	443	.228/.316/.344	7	9	89	0.6
2028PROJ38% MLB	24	MLBKC	95	.228/.315/.345	2	2	91	0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	25	MLBKC	174	.229/.316/.349	3	4	92	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Chase%97

Z-Con%97

Whiff%94

K%87

BB%77

Speed76

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 97%

CompsHoy Park (age 23) · Nolan Fontana (age 23) · Logan Vick (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .313 / .341

PA210

HR4

K%24

BB%10

ISO116

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 56 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT56

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE64

scouting grade only

SPEED58

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	41	35	6	2	0	0	6	7	0	0	0	171	293	229	521	57	214	17	15	253	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	39	32	7	4	0	0	7	8	0	0	0	219	359	344	703	125	292	21	18	327	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	294	239	65	9	4	5	46	47	5	14	5	272	399	406	804	134	316	16	16	363	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	41	37	5	2	0	0	4	10	0	0	0	135	220	189	409	54	187	24	10	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	39	34	6	3	0	0	5	10	0	0	0	176	282	265	547	88	253	26	13	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	294	254	60	8	4	4	32	64	5	14	5	236	333	346	680	110	284	22	11	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	41	37	5	2	0	0	4	10	0	0	0	135	220	189	409	54	185	24	10	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	—	41	35	6	2	0	0	6	7	0	0	0	171	293	229	521	57	214	17	15	253	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	333	288	66	11	4	4	37	74	5	14	5	229	327	337	664	108	291	22	11	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	333	271	72	13	4	5	53	55	5	14	5	266	394	399	792	133	313	17	16	359	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	41	37	5	2	0	0	4	10	0	0	0	135	220	189	409	54	187	24	10	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	333	288	66	11	4	4	37	74	5	14	5	229	327	337	664	108	280	22	11	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	41	37	5	2	0	0	4	10	0	0	0	135	220	189	409	54	187	24	10	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	333	288	66	11	4	4	37	74	5	14	5	229	327	337	664	108	280	22	11	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	KC	0%	443	390	88	17	3	7	46	107	4	9	3	228	316	344	659	116	291	24	10	299	89	-6	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	38%	251	220	52	10	2	5	26	60	3	5	1	230	318	351	669	121	292	24	10	303	91	-3	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	55%	314	276	64	12	2	6	32	75	3	7	2	231	318	356	674	124	292	24	10	305	92	-3	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	64%	355	312	72	14	2	7	36	84	4	8	2	232	318	358	676	126	292	24	10	306	93	-3	+1	+0	+4	+8	1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	66%	371	327	75	14	2	7	37	88	4	8	2	232	318	358	676	127	292	24	10	305	93	-3	+1	+0	+4	+8	1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	KC	67%	376	331	76	14	2	8	38	90	4	8	2	231	316	356	672	126	291	24	10	304	92	-4	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	KC	66%	371	328	74	14	2	7	37	90	3	7	2	228	313	350	664	122	290	24	10	300	89	-5	+1	-1	+4	+8	0.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	KC	65%	363	321	73	14	2	7	36	89	3	7	3	226	310	343	653	117	288	25	10	296	86	-6	+0	-2	+4	+8	0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	KC	65%	350	310	69	13	2	6	34	87	3	6	3	222	305	334	639	112	286	25	10	290	83	-7	+0	-3	+4	+8	0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	KC	70%	328	290	64	12	2	5	32	83	3	5	4	217	299	322	621	105	282	25	10	283	78	-9	-1	-4	+4	+7	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	38%	95	84	20	4	1	2	10	23	1	2	1	228	315	345	660	117	290	24	11	300	91	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	55%	174	152	35	7	1	3	18	41	2	4	1	229	316	349	665	120	290	24	10	301	92	-2	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	64%	226	199	46	9	2	4	23	54	2	5	1	229	316	351	667	122	290	24	10	302	93	-2	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	66%	244	215	50	9	2	5	25	58	2	5	2	229	315	351	667	122	290	24	10	302	93	-2	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	KC	67%	251	222	52	10	2	5	25	60	2	5	2	228	314	349	663	121	289	24	10	300	92	-2	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	KC	66%	244	216	49	9	2	4	24	59	2	5	2	226	311	344	655	118	288	24	10	297	89	-3	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	KC	65%	236	209	46	9	1	4	23	58	2	4	2	223	308	337	644	113	287	25	10	293	86	-4	+0	-1	+3	+5	0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	KC	65%	227	201	44	8	1	4	22	57	2	4	2	219	303	327	631	108	284	25	10	287	83	-5	+0	-2	+2	+5	0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	KC	70%	230	204	43	8	1	3	22	58	2	3	3	214	297	316	613	101	281	25	10	280	78	-6	-1	-2	+2	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1927	1702	385	73	13	34	192	468	17	37	16	226	311	344	655	118	291	24	10	295	87	-27	+1	-7	+21	+42	3.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	129	25	4	11	65	158	6	12	5	225	311	340	650	115	289	24	10	295	87	-9	+0	-2	+7	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3663	3224	732	138	23	66	371	881	37	79	27	227	314	346	659	118	290	24	10	297	87	-45	+4	-10	+35	+71	5.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	130	24	4	12	66	156	7	14	5	227	315	346	661	119	289	24	10	297	87	-9	+1	-2	+7	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AColumbia Fireflies · 294 PAwOBA .358 → .297 (−61)K% 16.0% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.99%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	21.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.65%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	10.80%
HBP% /PA	1.70%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.33%
Singles /BIP	24.48%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.999	—	22.50%
Doubles /BIP	4.69%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.999	—	3.89%
Triples /BIP	2.08%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.999	—	1.89%
Home runs /BIP	2.60%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	2.08%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .358 → .297; ISO .134 → .113; BABIP .316 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 39 PAwOBA .319 → .255 (−64)K% 20.5% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.51%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	26.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.95%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	12.90%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.012	11.64%
Doubles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×1.012	13.66%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .319 → .255; ISO .125 → .102; BABIP .292 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AColumbia Fireflies · 41 PAwOBA .248 → .195 (−52)K% 17.1% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.07%	÷0.982	×1.360	—	—	23.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.63%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×1.015	10.19%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.099	×0.920	—	×1.015	12.14%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.913	×0.830	—	×1.015	6.59%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.937	×0.910	—	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.086	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 120, 2B 83, 3B 87, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .248 → .195; ISO .057 → .051; BABIP .214 → .187. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Gallego'85-'97 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,379 PA	5.1	3,379	42	24	235*	316*	342*	+20	+41	9.5	10.5
/162	664	8	5	+4.0	+8.1	1.9	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	4.3	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
/162	664	18	10	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#4Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#5Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
/162	664	3	5	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.2	2,136	39	42	228	310	348	+23	+21	5.4	5.0
/162	664	12	13	+7.1	+6.5	1.7	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Connor Rasmussen (OGILVIE)	23	51→56	37→42	53→58	64	225/313/341	115	291	4	4	24%	10%	89	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Hoy Park 2019 · A	23	46→52	39→45	55	51	220/302/306	86	289	6	17	25%	10%	76	-0.4	234/313/331	97	308	7	16	24%	10%	85	+0.2	217/305/329	112	291	12	18	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Nolan Fontana 2014 · A	23	45	40	52→50	60	209/326/308	98	294	7	14	28%	14%	86	+0.3	210/308/299	89	309	4	9	29%	12%	77	-0.3	186/292/310	124	256	11	12	29%	12%	73	-0.3
✕Logan Vick 2014 · A	23	48	41→45	51→50	54	224/317/329	105	303	7	15	26%	12%	86	+0.3	193/282/288	95	290	7	13	32%	11%	65	-1.2	145/247/224	79	228	5	13	35%	11%	36	-2.2
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→49	42→45	58→60	54	211/313/323	113	290	8	21	28%	12%	85	+0.2	220/320/345	125	277	13	33	24%	11%	93	+0.8	217/321/350	133	273	12	37	23%	11%	92	+0.8
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2022 · AAA	23	51	44→45	53→55	48	238/314/354	116	337	11	15	30%	10%	91	+0.7	231/303/347	116	343	8	18	32%	9%	85	+0.2	221/294/336	115	330	8	20	32%	9%	76	-0.2
✕Carlos Mendoza 2023 · A	23	52→56	36→40	49→55	60	241/347/312	72	303	3	13	20%	12%	95	+0.9	243/334/320	77	306	4	16	20%	10%	91	+0.7	246/335/334	88	300	7	18	19%	10%	93	+0.6
✕Logan Watkins 2013 · AA	23	52→54	40→45	57→55	48	244/310/345	101	314	6	17	23%	8%	87	+0.4	223/282/320	97	298	7	18	26%	7%	71	-0.8	221/277/290	70	283	3	17	22%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Phillip Glasser 2024 · A	24	48→58	40	51→55	51	228/295/321	93	271	7	12	18%	8%	76	-0.4	256/319/346	90	306	7	19	17%	7%	91	+0.6	263/329/345	82	312	6	21	16%	8%	91	+0.5
●Tyler Black 2023 · A	23	48→53	41→50	50→60	55	226/323/329	103	298	7	14	24%	11%	89	+0.5	242/334/386	144	312	12	30	24%	10%	106	+1.8	240/336/386	146	312	13	35	25%	11%	104	+1.2
✕Alden Carrithers 2009 · A	24	49→59	39→30	56→55	53	231/319/319	88	287	6	18	20%	10%	86	+0.3	255/327/318	63	307	2	15	16%	9%	87	+0.4	271/344/325	54	313	1	17	12%	9%	92	+0.5
✕Andrew Aplin 2014 · A	23	46→56	42→40	52→55	53	222/289/333	111	253	9	14	16%	9%	77	-0.3	235/308/317	82	287	6	22	18%	10%	80	-0.1	233/308/303	70	291	5	27	20%	10%	75	-0.4
✕Jorbit Vivas 2024 · AAA	23	51→57	44→45	52→50	53	247/330/364	117	274	10	11	14%	8%	100	+1.3	227/315/324	97	264	7	14	16%	9%	86	+0.3	220/313/305	85	258	6	13	16%	10%	79	-0.2
✕LeVon Washington 2014 · A	23	54	42→45	53→50	47	246/320/365	118	353	7	14	30%	9%	95	+1.0	233/296/340	107	327	8	10	29%	8%	81	-0.1	224/287/319	96	313	7	8	29%	7%	70	-0.4
✕James Skelton 2008 · A	22	53→57	42→40	51→50	53	255/323/364	109	305	8	13	19%	9%	97	+1.1	234/327/323	89	310	7	13	24%	12%	89	+0.5	226/327/311	85	298	5	10	23%	12%	86	+0.1
✕Nicky Lopez 2017 · A	22	47→57	42→40	57→55	51	227/302/334	107	261	9	17	17%	8%	82	+0.0	255/308/340	85	288	5	13	13%	7%	84	+0.2	264/325/346	82	304	4	14	13%	8%	92	+0.6
✕Conner Crumbliss 2010 · A	23	49→48	40→45	50	50	230/314/332	102	296	6	10	23%	9%	86	+0.3	223/325/314	91	283	6	14	21%	13%	86	+0.3	218/327/309	92	274	7	16	20%	13%	85	+0.2
✕Joe McCarthy 2017 · A	23	48→51	42→45	51→50	51	232/316/340	108	294	9	14	23%	9%	89	+0.5	224/311/350	126	295	10	12	25%	10%	89	+0.5	204/287/361	156	270	18	5	30%	9%	82	-0.0
✕Sherman Johnson 2013 · A	23	45→49	39→45	52→50	53	213/301/306	94	282	6	9	25%	11%	76	-0.4	219/297/329	110	279	8	12	23%	9%	79	-0.2	210/291/324	114	260	9	14	22%	10%	73	-0.6
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2022 · AA	23	51→55	42→45	54→60	44	241/303/349	108	331	8	22	28%	7%	85	+0.2	248/308/354	106	326	7	29	24%	8%	88	+0.5	253/316/355	102	332	7	33	24%	8%	90	+0.4
●Chase Meidroth 2024 · AA	23	52→58	43→40	52→50	53	249/341/361	113	320	11	12	24%	10%	103	+1.6	259/348/358	99	312	9	12	18%	11%	105	+1.7	263/352/365	101	313	10	11	17%	11%	107	+1.8

Connor Rasmussen

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps